Network Effects Of International Shocks And Spillovers

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Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Mr.Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov
Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers Book PDF

Author : Mr.Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2015-07-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513542928

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Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers by Mr.Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov Pdf

This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine respectively.

Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers

Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov
Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers Book PDF

Author : Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Monetary policy
ISBN : 1513511408

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Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers by Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov Pdf

This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine res

Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19

Mr. Sonali Das,Giacomo Magistretti,Evgenia Pugacheva,Mr. Philippe Wingender
Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers An Application to COVID 19 Book PDF

Author : Mr. Sonali Das,Giacomo Magistretti,Evgenia Pugacheva,Mr. Philippe Wingender
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2021-07-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513587394

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Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19 by Mr. Sonali Das,Giacomo Magistretti,Evgenia Pugacheva,Mr. Philippe Wingender Pdf

This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.

China’s Imports Slowdown

Mr.Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov
China s Imports Slowdown Book PDF

Author : Mr.Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2016-03-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513555850

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China’s Imports Slowdown by Mr.Alexei Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov Pdf

The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact.

Stock Market Spillovers Via the Global Production Network

Julian Di Giovanni,Galina Hale
Stock Market Spillovers Via the Global Production Network Book PDF

Author : Julian Di Giovanni,Galina Hale
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2021
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1253715144

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Stock Market Spillovers Via the Global Production Network by Julian Di Giovanni,Galina Hale Pdf

We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns across countries and sectors using a newly constructed dataset. Our estimation strategy is based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover pattern consistent with a spatial autoregression (SAR) process. We use the SAR model to decompose the overall impact of U.S. monetary policy on global stock returns into a direct and a network effect. We find that nearly 70% of the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on country-sector stock returns are due to the network effect of global production linkages. Our results are robust to changes in the definitions of stock returns and monetary policy shocks, to controlling for correlates of the global financial cycle, foreign monetary policy shocks, and to alternative empirical specifications.

A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Mr.Alexei P Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov
A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates Book PDF

Author : Mr.Alexei P Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 23 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2016-07-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498351331

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A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates by Mr.Alexei P Kireyev,Andrei Leonidov Pdf

This paper proposes a network model of multilaterally equilibrium exchange rates. The model introduces a topological component into the exchange rate analysis, consistently taking into account simultaneous higher-order interactions among all currencies. The paper defines the currency demand indicator. On its base, it derives a multilateral exchange rate network, finds its dynamically stationary position, and identifies the multilaterally equilibrium levels of bilateral exchanges rates. Potentially, the model can be developed further to calculate the deviations of the observed bilateral exchange rates from their multilaterally equilibrium levels, which can be interpreted as their over- or undervaluation. For illustration, the model is applied to daily 1995-2016 exchange rates among 130 currencies sourced from the Thomson Reuters Datastream.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Regional Economic Outlook April 2016 Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 137 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2016-05-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498388139

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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. Pdf

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years, though with large variation among countries in the region. The sharp decline in commodity prices has severely strained many of the largest economies, including oil exporters Angola and Nigeria, and other commodity exporters, such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has helped other countries continue to show robust growth, including Kenya and Senegal. A strong policy response to the terms-of-trade shocks is critical and urgent in many countries. This report also examines sub-Saharan Africa’s vulnerability to commodity price shocks, and documents the substantial progress made in financial develop, especially financial services based on mobile technologies.

Regionalism, Development and the Post-Commodities Boom in South America

Ernesto Vivares
Regionalism Development and the Post Commodities Boom in South America Book PDF

Author : Ernesto Vivares
Publisher : Springer
Page : 348 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2017-11-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783319625515

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Regionalism, Development and the Post-Commodities Boom in South America by Ernesto Vivares Pdf

This book is a critical and multidisciplinary IPE of the unequal structures of South American development and uneven insertions in the global order following the decline of the commodities boom. The work explores the extent to which regional development issues are related to merely a decline of commodities ́ prices and/or to the resilience of the historical structures within an unequal world order. Thus, the authors seek first to analytically explore the regional issues beyond the formal limitations of North American and Eurocentric approaches. Secondly, they empirically scrutinize the complex dimensions of regional inequality and global insertions. Aspects analysed include economic reprimarization, the impact of China, development finance, trade and regional value chains, knowledge and technology, regional and transnational organised crime, cities, economic integration and the Global South.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Regional Economic Outlook October 2017 Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 129 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2017-11-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484320976

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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. Pdf

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Regional Economic Outlook October 2016 Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 140 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2016-10-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475538274

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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2016, Sub-Saharan Africa by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. Pdf

Economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa this year is set to drop to its lowest level in more than 20 years, reflecting the adverse external environment, and a lackluster policy response in many countries. However, the aggregate picture is one of multispeed growth: while most of non-resource-intensive countries—half of the countries in the region—continue to perform well, as they benefit from lower oil prices, an improved business environment, and continued strong infrastructure investment, most commodity exporters are under severe economic strains. This is particularly the case for oil exporters whose near-term prospects have worsened significantly in recent months. Sub-Saharan Africa remains a region of immense economic potential, but policy adjustment in the hardest-hit countries needs to be enacted promptly to allow for a growth rebound.

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2015

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Bulletin September 2015 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2015-09-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513592428

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IMF Research Bulletin, September 2015 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Regional Economic Outlook April 2018 Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 137 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2018-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484339862

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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. Pdf

The region is seeing a modest growth uptick, but this is not uniform and the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Growth is projected to rise to 3.4 percent in 2018, from 2.8 percent in 2017, on the back of improved global growth, higher commodity prices, and continued strong public spending. About 3⁄4 of the countries in the region are predicted to experience faster growth. Beyond 2018, growth is expected to plateau below 4 percent, modestly above population growth, reflecting continued sluggishness in the oil-exporting countries and sustained growth in non-resource-intensive countries. A number of countries (Burundi, DRC, South Sudan, and parts of the Sahel) remain locked in internal conflict resulting in record levels of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, with adverse spillovers to neighboring countries.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa

Céline Allard
Regional Economic Outlook April 2017 Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : Céline Allard
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 122 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2017-05-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475574937

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Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa by Céline Allard Pdf

Growth momentum in sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile, marking a break from the rapid expansion witnessed since the turn of the millennium. 2016 was a difficult year for many countries, with regional growth dipping to 1.4 percent—the lowest level of growth in more than two decades. Most oil exporters were in recession, and conditions in other resource-intensive countries remained difficult. Other nonresource-intensive countries however, continued to grow robustly. A modest recovery in growth of about 2.6 percent is expected in 2017, but this falls short of past trends and is too low to put sub-Saharan Africa back on a path of rising living standards. While sub-Saharan Africa remains a region with tremendous growth potential, the deterioration in the overall outlook partly reflects insufficient policy adjustment. In that context, and to reap this potential, strong and sound domestic policy measures are needed to restart the growth engine.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015

International Monetary Fund
Regional Economic Outlook October 2015 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2015-10-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513598406

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Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015 by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened after more than a decade of solid growth, although this overall outlook masks considerable variation across the region. Some countries have been negatively affected by falling prices of their main commodity exports. Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria and Angola, have been hit hard by falling revenues and the resulting fiscal adjustments, while middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia are also facing unfavorable conditions. This October 2015 report discusses the fiscal and monetary policy adjustments necessary for these countries to adapt to the new environment. Chapter 2 looks at competitiveness in the region, analyzing the substantial trade integration that accompanied the recent period of high growth, and policy actions to nurture new sources of growth. Chapter 3 looks at the implications for the region of persistently high income and gender inequality and ways to reduce them.

Trade Multilateralism in the Twenty-First Century

Alexei Kireyev,Chiedu Osakwe
Trade Multilateralism in the Twenty First Century Book PDF

Author : Alexei Kireyev,Chiedu Osakwe
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 457 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2017-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781108421287

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Trade Multilateralism in the Twenty-First Century by Alexei Kireyev,Chiedu Osakwe Pdf

The book explores the impact of recent WTO accession experiences on the development of the multilateral trading system.