Predicting The Unthinkable Anticipating The Impossible

Author : Georgie Anne Geyer
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 345 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2017-09-04
Category : History
ISBN : 9781351497107

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Predicting the Unthinkable, Anticipating the Impossible by Georgie Anne Geyer Pdf

In the 1980s, most Americans scoffed at the idea that the Communist empire could collapse - but Georgie Anne Geyer was already outlining that probability. In the 1990s, the world was stunned by wars that raged across post-Yugoslavia and their viciousness - but Geyer on a trip to Belgrade in 1989, interviewed top officials and anticipated the conflicts. When 9/11 occurred, she used common sense and said, 'This was inevitable - the terrorists had already attacked the World Trade Center in 1993 and criminals always return to the scene of the crime.'Geyer argues that while the United States was being praised everywhere during this era of 'indispensable power' as the 'greatest power the world has known,' it actually had started on the road to decline. It had won the Cold War, but had immediately embarked upon more Vietnam-like small wars of tremendous cost in Iraq and Afghanistan. Across the board, it was no longer paying its way, while its domestic culture was being vulgarized at every turn.This book explains how, when, and where these declines happened. Geyer studies the history of nations and of peoples, observes human nature, particularly as influenced by religion and ideology; and is a close analyst of the acts of men and women when they perceive they have been humiliated by others or by history. She warns Americans and journalists that we must anticipate the changes in the world before they are upon us and that we must employ predictions to strengthen our nation and its principles.

Author : Georgie Anne Geyer
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 345 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : United States
ISBN : 1412843952

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Predicting the Unthinkable, Anticipating the Impossible by Georgie Anne Geyer Pdf

Author : Mark Lawrence Schrad
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 512 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2014-02-05
Category : History
ISBN : 9780199389476

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Vodka Politics by Mark Lawrence Schrad Pdf

Russia is famous for its vodka, and its culture of extreme intoxication. But just as vodka is central to the lives of many Russians, it is also central to understanding Russian history and politics. In Vodka Politics, Mark Lawrence Schrad argues that debilitating societal alcoholism is not hard-wired into Russians' genetic code, but rather their autocratic political system, which has long wielded vodka as a tool of statecraft. Through a series of historical investigations stretching from Ivan the Terrible through Vladimir Putin, Vodka Politics presents the secret history of the Russian state itself-a history that is drenched in liquor. Scrutinizing (rather than dismissing) the role of alcohol in Russian politics yields a more nuanced understanding of Russian history itself: from palace intrigues under the tsars to the drunken antics of Soviet and post-Soviet leadership, vodka is there in abundance. Beyond vivid anecdotes, Schrad scours original documents and archival evidence to answer provocative historical questions. How have Russia's rulers used alcohol to solidify their autocratic rule? What role did alcohol play in tsarist coups? Was Nicholas II's ill-fated prohibition a catalyst for the Bolshevik Revolution? Could the Soviet Union have become a world power without liquor? How did vodka politics contribute to the collapse of both communism and public health in the 1990s? How can the Kremlin overcome vodka's hurdles to produce greater social well-being, prosperity, and democracy into the future? Viewing Russian history through the bottom of the vodka bottle helps us to understand why the "liquor question" remains important to Russian high politics even today-almost a century after the issue had been put to bed in most every other modern state. Indeed, recognizing and confronting vodka's devastating political legacies may be the greatest political challenge for this generation of Russia's leadership, as well as the next.

Author : Colleen McCue
Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
Page : 422 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2014-12-30
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9780128004081

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Data Mining and Predictive Analysis by Colleen McCue Pdf

Data Mining and Predictive Analysis: Intelligence Gathering and Crime Analysis, 2nd Edition, describes clearly and simply how crime clusters and other intelligence can be used to deploy security resources most effectively. Rather than being reactive, security agencies can anticipate and prevent crime through the appropriate application of data mining and the use of standard computer programs. Data Mining and Predictive Analysis offers a clear, practical starting point for professionals who need to use data mining in homeland security, security analysis, and operational law enforcement settings. This revised text highlights new and emerging technology, discusses the importance of analytic context for ensuring successful implementation of advanced analytics in the operational setting, and covers new analytic service delivery models that increase ease of use and access to high-end technology and analytic capabilities. The use of predictive analytics in intelligence and security analysis enables the development of meaningful, information based tactics, strategy, and policy decisions in the operational public safety and security environment. Discusses new and emerging technologies and techniques, including up-to-date information on predictive policing, a key capability in law enforcement and security Demonstrates the importance of analytic context beyond software Covers new models for effective delivery of advanced analytics to the operational environment, which have increased access to even the most powerful capabilities Includes terminology, concepts, practical application of these concepts, and examples to highlight specific techniques and approaches in crime and intelligence analysis

Author : Pascal Lièvre,Monique Aubry,Gilles Garal
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 332 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2019-09-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119662983

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Management of Extreme Situations by Pascal Lièvre,Monique Aubry,Gilles Garal Pdf

In response to the rise of various forms of the extreme in economies, organizations and societies (such as disruptive innovation, climate emergency, financial crisis, high-risk sport, etc.), an ambitious 21st century program sets the agenda of management sciences around the unknown, disruption, uncertainty and risk. Management of Extreme Situations presents the research results from the conference organized at the Cerisy-la-Salle International Cultural Center, France, in 2016. It testifies to the existence of an international community that brings together, around management sciences, various disciplines studying the management concept of extreme situations. Through the analysis of varied contexts (polar and mountain expeditions, fire rescue services, exploration projects in the military field, creative industries, etc.), this book offers an initial grammar of the extreme. It presents a heuristic for the management of these situations – particularly in terms of sensemaking, ambidexterity and knowledge expansion.

Author : Cathy Winterfield
Publisher : Pearson IT Certification
Page : 1021 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2015-08-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780134060361

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PHR Exam Prep by Cathy Winterfield Pdf

Score Higher on the PHR® Exam! We provide you with the proven study tools and expert insight that will help you score higher on your exam Study Tips like the advice and instruction that a personal tutor might provide Notes, Tips, and Cautions provide you with hints and strategies that will help you reduce your mistakes on the exam Comprehensive discussion of all six functional areas covered on the PHR Exam Practice Questions that include detailed explanations of correct and incorrect answers–so you can learn the material from your success and mistakes COMPREHENSIVE! Succeed with comprehensive learning and practice tests Master the PHR exam materials in all six tested functional areas Prepare with a comprehensive practice test Analyze your test readiness and areas for further study with topic-focused chapter tests CD-ROM—based practice exam includes an interactive test engine for a meaningful exam experience with 175 questions Learn important test-taking strategies to maximize your score and diminish your anxiety Pearson IT Certification Practice Test The CD-ROM—based practice exam includes an interactive test engine for a realistic exam experience with 175 questions. Includes Exclusive Offer for 70% Off Premium Edition eBook and Practice Test CATHY LEE PANTANO WINTERFIELD, MBA, MSHE, SPHR, ACC, is President of NovaCore Performance Solutions, a firm dedicated to enhancing individual and team workplace performance. She has more than 25 years of experience in HR, training, consulting, management, and coaching for businesses, non-profits, and governmental entities. She previously served as Director of Human Resource Management Programs for Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Winterfield has presented on many HR and management development topics, and co-authored more than a dozen online courses in these fields. Her books include Performance Appraisals and Mission-Driven Interviewing, as well as the Pearson IT Certification books SPHR Exam Prep, Third Edition, PHR/SPHR Quick Reference, and every edition of PHR Exam Prep. She is a member of SHRM, ASTD, and the International Coach Federation.

Author : Mihai Nadin
Publisher : Springer
Page : 363 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2016-10-22
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783319451428

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Anticipation and Medicine by Mihai Nadin Pdf

In this book, practicing physicians and experts in anticipation present arguments for a new understanding of medicine. Their contributions make it clear that medicine is the decisive test for anticipation. The reader is presented with a provocative hypothesis: If medicine will align itself with the anticipatory condition of life, it can prompt the most important revolution in our time. To this end, all stakeholders—medical practitioners, patients, scientists, and technology developers—will have to engage in the conversation. The book makes the case for the transition from expensive, and only marginally effective, reactive treatment through “spare parts” (joint replacements, organ transplants) and reliance on pharmaceuticals (antibiotics, opiates) to anticipation-informed healthcare. Readers will understand why the current premise of treating various behavioral conditions (attention deficit disorder, hyperactivity, schizophrenia) through drugs has to be re-evaluated from the perspective of anticipation. In the manner practiced today, medicine generates dependence and long-lasting damage to those it is paid to help. As we better understand the nature of the living, the proactive view of healthcare, within which the science and art of healing fuse, becomes a social and political mandate.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 570 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2013
Category : Authors, American
ISBN : UCSD:31822037943214

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The Writers Directory by Anonim Pdf

Author : Jane McGonigal
Publisher : Random House
Page : 275 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2022-03-24
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781473598546

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Imaginable by Jane McGonigal Pdf

World-renowned future forecaster, game designer, and NEW YORK TIMES bestselling author Jane McGonigal gives us the tools to imagine the future without fear. How can we be confident about making plans? How might we feel secure despite the future being unknown? How do we learn to feel at peace with the unexpected? Today it feels more challenging than ever to feel unafraid, hopeful, and equipped to face the future with optimism. How do we map out our lives when it seems impossible to predict what the world will be like next week, let alone next year or next decade? What we need now are strategies to help us recover our confidence and creativity in facing uncertain futures. By learning to think the unthinkable and imagine the unimaginable you can better plan for a future you'd like to see. And by seeing what's coming faster, you can adapt to new challenges, reduce anxiety, and build hope and resilience. 'An accessible, optimistic field guide to the future.'-San Francisco Chronicle 'Jane McGonigal is unusually adept at anticipating events that most of us can't even fathom. In this eye-opening, actionable book, she teaches you how to widen your peripheral vision, extend your imagination farther into the future, and conceive of the inconceivable.' Adam Grant, #1 Bestselling Author of Think Again __________ 'Top 10 innovators to watch' Business Week 10 most powerful women to watch' Forbes 'Top 100 creative people in business' Fast Company

Author : Georgie Anne Geyer
Publisher : Transaction Publishers
Page : 271 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2012-11-14
Category : Biography & Autobiography
ISBN : 9781412846851

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When Cats Reigned Like Kings by Georgie Anne Geyer Pdf

In her fascinating exploration of feline history, Georgie Anne Geyer explores the connections between the royal and sacred felines of ancient civilizations and the beloved domestic cats of today. Chasing an irresistible mystery across the globe, Geyer conducts exhaustive research into the little-known puzzle of how cats came to occupy their unique position in the lives of humans. Treated with the tenacity, resourcefulness, and narrative instinct of a seasoned foreign correspondent, the investigation yields unexpected answers and poses tantalizing new questions. It was Geyer’s curiosity about her own cats that inspired her to study the history of human-feline relations and especially the exalted status of cats among the ancients as royal or sacred beings. In Egypt, Geyer learned of the cat-goddess Bastet and of the cat’s role in the transmigration of souls. In Myanmar she saw Leonardo DiCaprio, Ricky Martin, and the other incongruously named cats of the Nga Phe Kyaung monastery, trained by the monks to jump through hoops. She even met a family who dutifully guards the heritage of the Japanese Bobtail, cultivating the line in—of all places—rural Virginia. Richly illustrated with photographs of Geyer’s journeys and historical cat images, When Cats Reigned Like Kings describes forty-one recognized modern cat breeds plus other popular cats. Every cat lover can, thus, trace his or her cat to these breeds and their many relatives. The result is a remarkable book, bound to delight and amaze cat fanciers and adventure seekers.

Author : Ulrich Beck
Publisher : Polity
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780745642017

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World at Risk by Ulrich Beck Pdf

Twenty years ago Ulrich Beck published Risk Society, a book that called our attention to the dangers of environmental catastrophes and changed the way we think about contemporary societies. During the last two decades, the dangers highlighted by Beck have taken on new forms and assumed ever greater significance. Terrorism has shifted to a global arena, financial crises have produced worldwide consequences that are difficult to control and politicians have been forced to accept that climate change is not idle speculation. In short, we have come to see that today we live in a world at risk. A new feature of our world risk society is that risk is produced for political gain. This political use of risk means that fear creeps into modern life. A need for security encroaches on our liberty and our view of equality. However, Beck is anything but an alarmist and believes that the anticipation of catastrophe can fundamentally change global politics. We have the opportunity today to reconfigure power in terms of what Beck calls a 'cosmopolitan material politics’. World at Risk is a timely and far-reaching analysis of the structural dynamics of the modern world, the global nature of risk and the future of global politics by one of the most original and exciting social thinkers writing today.

Author : Francis Fukuyama
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2008-01-27
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780815729891

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Blindside by Francis Fukuyama Pdf

A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises—like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired—have caught governments and societies unprepared many times in recent decades. September 11 is only the most obvious recent example among many unforeseen events that have changed, even redefined our lives. We have every reason to expect more such events in future. Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine. Bl indside is organized into four main sections. "Thinking about Strategic Surprise" addresses the psychological and institutional obstacles that prevent leaders from planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating the necessary resources to deal with them. The following two sections pinpoint the failures—institutional as well as personal—that allowed key historical events to take leaders by surprise, and examine the philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. In "Pollyana vs. Cassandra," for example, James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook debate the future state of the world going forward. Mitchell Waldrop explores why technology forecasting is so poor and why that is likely to remain the case. In the book's final section, "What Could Be," internationally renowned authorities discuss low probability, high-impact contingencies in their area of expertise. For example, Scott Barrett looks at emerging infectious diseases, while Gal Luft and Anne Korin discuss energy security. How can we avoid being blindsided by unforeseen events? There is no easy or obvious answer. But it is essential that we understand the obstacles that prevent us first from seeing the future clearly and then from acting appropriately on our insights. This readable and fascinating book is an important step in that direction.

Author : Edwin Bacon
Publisher : Biteback Publishing
Page : 146 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2017-09-26
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781785903250

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Inside Russian Politics by Edwin Bacon Pdf

Inside Russian Politics is an intelligent, critical and engaging account of the realities of contemporary Russian politics. It is distinctive in widening our view of Russia beyond the standard account of global power plays and resurgent authoritarian menace. Putin matters, but he is not Russia. Russian military adventurism has had a major effect on contemporary international affairs, but assessing its aims and projecting future intentions and impacts requires analysis within a context deeper than the stock 'Cold War renewed' story. The holistic approach of this book facilitates our understanding of power politics in and beyond the Kremlin and of Russian policy on the international stage. Revealing the Russia beyond Moscow and the central figures around Putin, Edwin Bacon focuses on Russia's political present, not to ignore the past but to move beyond cliché and misleading historical analogy to reveal the contemporary – and future – concerns of Russia's current generation of politicians.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 436 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 1996
Category : Agriculture
ISBN : STANFORD:36105020581745

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Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture by Anonim Pdf

Author : Brad Parks
Publisher : Thomas & Mercer
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2021-07-27
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 1542024951

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Unthinkable by Brad Parks Pdf

From international bestselling author Brad Parks comes a new thriller about an ordinary man who may be able to save the world as we know it--but to do so, he must make an impossible choice. Nate Lovejoy is a self-proclaimed nobody, a stay-at-home dad who doesn't believe he's important to anyone but his wife and their two daughters. So it's a shock when members of a powerful secret society kidnap and spirit Nate away to a mansion at the behest of their leader, Vanslow DeGange, who claims to know the future. He's foreseen that a billion people could die--unless Nate acts. It seems improbable, especially given what DeGange says will set this mass casualty incident in motion: a lawsuit against the biggest power company in Virginia, being brought by Nate's wife, Jenny. Nate quickly smells a scam being perpetrated by the power company. But at every turn, it becomes apparent there's more to DeGange's gift than Nate wants to acknowledge. A billion people really could die, and Nate might be the only one who can save them. All he has to do is the unthinkable.