Summary Of Carl T Bergstrom Jevin D West S Calling Bullshit

Author : Carl T. Bergstrom,Jevin D. West
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
Page : 338 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2021-04-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780525509202

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Calling Bullshit by Carl T. Bergstrom,Jevin D. West Pdf

Bullshit isn’t what it used to be. Now, two science professors give us the tools to dismantle misinformation and think clearly in a world of fake news and bad data. “A modern classic . . . a straight-talking survival guide to the mean streets of a dying democracy and a global pandemic.”—Wired Misinformation, disinformation, and fake news abound and it’s increasingly difficult to know what’s true. Our media environment has become hyperpartisan. Science is conducted by press release. Startup culture elevates bullshit to high art. We are fairly well equipped to spot the sort of old-school bullshit that is based in fancy rhetoric and weasel words, but most of us don’t feel qualified to challenge the avalanche of new-school bullshit presented in the language of math, science, or statistics. In Calling Bullshit, Professors Carl Bergstrom and Jevin West give us a set of powerful tools to cut through the most intimidating data. You don’t need a lot of technical expertise to call out problems with data. Are the numbers or results too good or too dramatic to be true? Is the claim comparing like with like? Is it confirming your personal bias? Drawing on a deep well of expertise in statistics and computational biology, Bergstrom and West exuberantly unpack examples of selection bias and muddled data visualization, distinguish between correlation and causation, and examine the susceptibility of science to modern bullshit. We have always needed people who call bullshit when necessary, whether within a circle of friends, a community of scholars, or the citizenry of a nation. Now that bullshit has evolved, we need to relearn the art of skepticism.

Author : Everest Media,
Publisher : Everest Media LLC
Page : 49 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2022-03-27T22:59:00Z
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781669372233

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Summary of Carl T. Bergstrom & Jevin D. West's Calling Bullshit by Everest Media, Pdf

Please note: This is a companion version & not the original book. Sample Book Insights: #1 Bullshit is not a modern invention. It has its origins in deception, which is not a new phenomenon. Animals have been deceiving one another for hundreds of millions of years. #2 The marine crustacean mantis shrimp is a good example of how bullshit is not very sophisticated. They have to molt to replace their hammer claws, which are hard and protected by a shell, but they are still vulnerable during that time. #3 The bullshitting behavior of ravens is similar to that of humans on the Internet. They do not have a theory of mind, but they do understand the effect their actions have on others. They are cautious about caching their food in view of other birds. #4 Humans have a theory of mind, which allows us to understand how others will interpret our actions. This allows us to use communication to manipulate others, which is why there is so much bullshit in the world.

Author : Harry G. Frankfurt
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 80 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2009-01-10
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781400826537

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On Bullshit by Harry G. Frankfurt Pdf

The #1 New York Times bestseller that explains why bullshit is far more dangerous than lying One of the most salient features of our culture is that there is so much bullshit. Everyone knows this. Each of us contributes his share. But we tend to take the situation for granted. Most people are rather confident of their ability to recognize bullshit and to avoid being taken in by it. So the phenomenon has not aroused much deliberate concern. We have no clear understanding of what bullshit is, why there is so much of it, or what functions it serves. And we lack a conscientiously developed appreciation of what it means to us. In other words, as Harry Frankfurt writes, "we have no theory." Frankfurt, one of the world's most influential moral philosophers, attempts to build such a theory here. With his characteristic combination of philosophical acuity, psychological insight, and wry humor, Frankfurt proceeds by exploring how bullshit and the related concept of humbug are distinct from lying. He argues that bullshitters misrepresent themselves to their audience not as liars do, that is, by deliberately making false claims about what is true. In fact, bullshit need not be untrue at all. Rather, bullshitters seek to convey a certain impression of themselves without being concerned about whether anything at all is true. They quietly change the rules governing their end of the conversation so that claims about truth and falsity are irrelevant. Frankfurt concludes that although bullshit can take many innocent forms, excessive indulgence in it can eventually undermine the practitioner's capacity to tell the truth in a way that lying does not. Liars at least acknowledge that it matters what is true. By virtue of this, Frankfurt writes, bullshit is a greater enemy of the truth than lies are.

Author : Ivory A. Toldson
Publisher : BRILL
Page : 181 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2019-04-09
Category : Education
ISBN : 9789004397040

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No BS (Bad Stats) by Ivory A. Toldson Pdf

What if everything you thought you knew about Black people generally, and educating Black children specifically, was based on BS (bad stats)? No BS uses robust analysis, meaningful anecdotes, and powerful commentary to dispel myths and challenge conventional beliefs about educating Black children.

Author : Ellen Peters
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2020
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780190861094

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Innumeracy in the Wild by Ellen Peters Pdf

"Innumeracy in the Wild explains how numeric ability supports the quality of the decisions we make and, ultimately, the life outcomes we experience. It dissects three ways that people can be good or bad with numbers and how each of these numeric competencies matter to decision making. Furthermore, it delves into how we can use this knowledge to improve decision making. Understanding the roles of numeric ability (often called numeracy) is particularly important today due to widespread innumeracy. In addition, policies in health and financial domains have shifted towards giving consumers and patients more information (which is often numeric). These changes are intended to empower individuals to take charge of their own welfare. The evidence is clear, however, that not everybody is prepared to use this information effectively and that those who are less numerate tend to make worse decisions unless provided adequate support. The book discusses four main points: the complex and systematic psychological mechanisms that underlie objective numeracy's effects in judgment and decision making; the importance of numeracy to experiencing positive life outcomes especially in health and finances; the decision-making support provided by two additional ways of knowing and using numbers; and the methods that exploit existing evidence and enable those who are less comfortable with numbers to use them more effectively and make better choices in our complex, often numeric world"--

Author : Philip H. Pollock III,Barry C. Edwards
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 309 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2019-07-18
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781506379586

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The Essentials of Political Analysis by Philip H. Pollock III,Barry C. Edwards Pdf

"Pollock and Edwards explain the nuts-and-bolts of research design and data analysis in a clear and concise style. The Essential of Political Analysis is an intuitive introduction to complex material, replete with examples from the political science literature that add relevance to statistical concepts. This text offers students an excellent balance between the technical and the practical." —Francis Neely, San Francisco State University Gain the skills you need to conduct political analysis and critically assess statistical research. In this Sixth Edition of The Essentials of Political Science, bestselling authors Philip H. Pollock III and Barry C. Edwards build students’ analytic abilities and develop their statistical reasoning with new data, fresh exercises, and accessible examples. This brief, accessible guide walks students through the essentials—measuring concepts, formulating and testing hypotheses, describing variables—while using key terms, chapter-opening objectives, over 80 tables and figures, and practical exercises to get them using and applying their new skills. Using SPSS, STATA or R? Discounted package deals available with Philip H. Pollock’s companion workbooks. . Give your students the SAGE edge! SAGE edge offers a robust online environment featuring an impressive array of free tools and resources for review, study, and further exploration, keeping both instructors and students on the cutting edge of teaching and learning.

Author : Tom Chatfield
Publisher : SAGE
Page : 329 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2017-10-28
Category : Philosophy
ISBN : 9781526418777

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Critical Thinking by Tom Chatfield Pdf

Shortlisted for the British Book Design and Production Awards 2018, Educational Books category Do you need to demonstrate a good argument or find more evidence? Are you mystified by your tutor′s comment ′critical analysis needed′? What does it really mean to think well - and how do you learn to do it? Critical thinking is a set of techniques. You just need to learn them. So here’s your personal toolkit for demystifying critical engagement. I’ll show you how to sharpen your critical thinking by developing and practicing this set of skills, so you can... Spot an argument and get why reasoning matters Sniff out errors and evaluate evidence Understand and account for bias Become a savvy user of technology Develop clear, confident critical writing. Designed to work seamlessly with a power pack of digital resources and exercises, you′ll find practical and effective tools to think and write critically in an information-saturated age. No matter whether you′re launching on your first degree or arriving as an international or mature student, Critical Thinking gives you the skills, insights and confidence to succeed. In your critical thinking toolkit Watch the 10 commandments videos – life rules to change how you think Smart Study boxes share excellent tips to whip your work into shape BuzzFeed quizzes to test what (you think) you know Space to scribble! Journal your thoughts, questions, eureka moments as you go Chat more online with #TalkCriticalThinking

Author : Ethan Bueno de Mesquita,Anthony Fowler
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2021-11-16
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780691215013

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Thinking Clearly with Data by Ethan Bueno de Mesquita,Anthony Fowler Pdf

An engaging introduction to data science that emphasizes critical thinking over statistical techniques An introduction to data science or statistics shouldn’t involve proving complex theorems or memorizing obscure terms and formulas, but that is exactly what most introductory quantitative textbooks emphasize. In contrast, Thinking Clearly with Data focuses, first and foremost, on critical thinking and conceptual understanding in order to teach students how to be better consumers and analysts of the kinds of quantitative information and arguments that they will encounter throughout their lives. Among much else, the book teaches how to assess whether an observed relationship in data reflects a genuine relationship in the world and, if so, whether it is causal; how to make the most informative comparisons for answering questions; what questions to ask others who are making arguments using quantitative evidence; which statistics are particularly informative or misleading; how quantitative evidence should and shouldn’t influence decision-making; and how to make better decisions by using moral values as well as data. Filled with real-world examples, the book shows how its thinking tools apply to problems in a wide variety of subjects, including elections, civil conflict, crime, terrorism, financial crises, health care, sports, music, and space travel. Above all else, Thinking Clearly with Data demonstrates why, despite the many benefits of our data-driven age, data can never be a substitute for thinking. An ideal textbook for introductory quantitative methods courses in data science, statistics, political science, economics, psychology, sociology, public policy, and other fields Introduces the basic toolkit of data analysis—including sampling, hypothesis testing, Bayesian inference, regression, experiments, instrumental variables, differences in differences, and regression discontinuity Uses real-world examples and data from a wide variety of subjects Includes practice questions and data exercises

Author : Rob Brotherton
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2015-11-19
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781472915641

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Suspicious Minds by Rob Brotherton Pdf

'A first class book' Sunday Times We're all conspiracy theorists. Some of us just hide it better than others. Conspiracy theorists do not wear tin-foil hats (for the most part). They are not just a few kooks lurking on the paranoid fringes of society with bizarre ideas about shape-shifting reptilian aliens running society in secret. They walk among us. They are us. Everyone loves a good conspiracy. Yet conspiracy theories are not a recent invention. And they are not always a harmless curiosity. In Suspicious Minds, Rob Brotherton explores the history and consequences of conspiracism, and delves into the research that offers insights into why so many of us are drawn to implausible, unproven and unproveable conspiracy theories. They resonate with some of our brain's built-in quirks and foibles, and tap into some of our deepest desires, fears, and assumptions about the world. The fascinating and often surprising psychology of conspiracy theories tells us a lot – not just why we are drawn to theories about sinister schemes, but about how our minds are wired and, indeed, why we believe anything at all. Conspiracy theories are not some psychological aberration – they're a predictable product of how brains work. This book will tell you why, and what it means. Of course, just because your brain's biased doesn't always mean you're wrong. Sometimes conspiracies are real. Sometimes, paranoia is prudent.

Author : Rolf Dobelli
Publisher : Harper Collins
Page : 384 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2014-05-06
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780062359803

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The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli Pdf

A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these “thinking errors” to make better decisions and have a better life Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad—that is, irrational—when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as “cognitive errors.” Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger. The “behavioral turn” in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don’t. Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn’t accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don’t like it to why it’s so hard to predict the future to why shouldn’t watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

Author : Jerry Z. Muller
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2019-04-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691191263

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The Tyranny of Metrics by Jerry Z. Muller Pdf

How the obsession with quantifying human performance threatens business, medicine, education, government—and the quality of our lives Today, organizations of all kinds are ruled by the belief that the path to success is quantifying human performance, publicizing the results, and dividing up the rewards based on the numbers. But in our zeal to instill the evaluation process with scientific rigor, we've gone from measuring performance to fixating on measuring itself—and this tyranny of metrics now threatens the quality of our organizations and lives. In this brief, accessible, and powerful book, Jerry Muller uncovers the damage metrics are causing and shows how we can begin to fix the problem. Filled with examples from business, medicine, education, government, and other fields, the book explains why paying for measured performance doesn't work, why surgical scorecards may increase deaths, and much more. But Muller also shows that, when used as a complement to judgment based on personal experience, metrics can be beneficial, and he includes an invaluable checklist of when and how to use them. The result is an essential corrective to a harmful trend that increasingly affects us all.

Author : Larry Wasserman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 446 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2013-12-11
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780387217369

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All of Statistics by Larry Wasserman Pdf

Taken literally, the title "All of Statistics" is an exaggeration. But in spirit, the title is apt, as the book does cover a much broader range of topics than a typical introductory book on mathematical statistics. This book is for people who want to learn probability and statistics quickly. It is suitable for graduate or advanced undergraduate students in computer science, mathematics, statistics, and related disciplines. The book includes modern topics like non-parametric curve estimation, bootstrapping, and classification, topics that are usually relegated to follow-up courses. The reader is presumed to know calculus and a little linear algebra. No previous knowledge of probability and statistics is required. Statistics, data mining, and machine learning are all concerned with collecting and analysing data.

Author : David C. Krakauer,Geoffrey B. West
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2021-11
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1947864408

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The Complex Alternative by David C. Krakauer,Geoffrey B. West Pdf

Author : Richard Saul Wurman
Publisher : New York : Doubleday
Page : 372 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Communication
ISBN : UOM:39015014188505

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Information Anxiety by Richard Saul Wurman Pdf

Produced by the ever-widening gap between what we understand and what we think we should understand, information anxiety is the black hole between data and knowledge, and it happens when information doesn't tell us what we want or need to know. Illustrated.

Author : David Sumpter
Publisher : Flatiron Books
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2021-08-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781250246974

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The Ten Equations That Rule the World by David Sumpter Pdf

Is there a secret formula for getting rich? For going viral? For deciding how long to stick with your current job, Netflix series, or even relationship? This book is all about the equations that make our world go round. Ten of them, in fact. They are integral to everything from investment banking to betting companies and social media giants. And they can help you to increase your chance of success, guard against financial loss, live more healthfully, and see through scaremongering. They are known by only the privileged few - until now. With wit and clarity, mathematician David Sumpter shows that it isn't the technical details that make these formulas so successful. It is the way they allow mathematicians to view problems from a different angle - a way of seeing the world that anyone can learn. Empowering and illuminating, The Ten Equations shows how math really can change your life.