The Avoidable War

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The Avoidable War

Author : Kevin Rudd
Publisher : Hachette UK
Page : 502 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2022-03-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780733648519

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The Avoidable War by Kevin Rudd Pdf

A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable. The relationship between the US and China, the world's two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgement will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls "managed strategic competition". Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world. "A lifelong student of China, Kevin Rudd has become one of today's most thoughtful analysts of China's development. The Avoidable War focuses on the signal challenge posed by China's evolution to America and to world order. Can the US and China avoid sleepwalking into a conflict? Rudd offers constructive steps for the two powers to stabilize their relations." HENRY A. KISSINGER

The Avoidable War

Author : Kevin Rudd
Publisher : PublicAffairs
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2022-03-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781541701304

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The Avoidable War by Kevin Rudd Pdf

A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable. The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault—of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily. Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.

Yugoslavia

Author : Nora Beloff
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 146 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 1997-01-01
Category : Yugoslav War, 1991-1995
ISBN : 1872410081

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Yugoslavia by Nora Beloff Pdf

In this outstanding appraisal of the modern history of Yugoslavia and the factors surrounding its break-up, Nora Beloff takes sacred tenets of received wisdom and subjects them to close analysis. Interventions by foreign governments, the role of the United Nations, the recognition of the secessionists' political platforms, together with the diplomatic infighting and confusion are all chronicled in this concise account.

The Improbable War

Author : Christopher Coker
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 230 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : History
ISBN : 9780199396276

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The Improbable War by Christopher Coker Pdf

The Improbable War explains why conflict between the USA and China cannot be ruled out. In 1914 war between the Great Powers was considered unlikely, yet it happened. We learn only from history, and popular though the First World War analogy is, the lessons we draw from its outbreak are usually mistaken. Among these errors is the tendency to over-estimate human rationality. All major conflicts of the past 300 years have been about the norms and rules of the international system. In China and the US the world confronts two 'exceptional' powers whose values differ markedly, with China bidding to challenge the current order. The 'Thucydidean Trap' - when a conservative status quo power confronts a rising new one - may also play its part in precipitating hostilities. To avoid stumbling into an avoidable war both Beijing and Washington need a coherent strategy, which neither of them has. History also reveals that war evolves continually. The next global conflict is likely to be played out in cyberspace and outer space and like all previous wars it will have devastating consequences. Such a war between the United States and China may seem improbable, but it is all too possible, which is why we need to discuss it now.

Destined For War

Author : Graham Allison
Publisher : HarperCollins
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2017-05-30
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780544935334

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Destined For War by Graham Allison Pdf

NATIONAL BESTSELLER | NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR. From an eminent international security scholar, an urgent examination of the conditions that could produce a catastrophic conflict between the United States and China—and how it might be prevented. China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve. At the time of publication, an unstoppable China approached an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promised to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case was looking grim—it still is. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war. In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today. SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON)* AMAZON “Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.” — President Joe Biden “[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — Boston Globe “[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— New York Times Book Review

Has China Won?

Author : Kishore Mahbubani
Publisher : PublicAffairs
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2020-03-31
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781541768123

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Has China Won? by Kishore Mahbubani Pdf

The defining geopolitical contest of the twenty-first century is between China and the US. But is it avoidable? And if it happens, is the outcome already inevitable? China and America are world powers without serious rivals. They eye each other warily across the Pacific; they communicate poorly; there seems little natural empathy. A massive geopolitical contest has begun. America prizes freedom; China values freedom from chaos.America values strategic decisiveness; China values patience.America is becoming society of lasting inequality; China a meritocracy.America has abandoned multilateralism; China welcomes it. Kishore Mahbubani, a diplomat and scholar with unrivalled access to policymakers in Beijing and Washington, has written the definitive guide to the deep fault lines in the relationship, a clear-eyed assessment of the risk of any confrontation, and a bracingly honest appraisal of the strengths and weaknesses, and superpower eccentricities, of the US and China.

Europe's Next Avoidable War

Author : M. Kambeck,S. Ghazaryan
Publisher : Springer
Page : 277 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2013-03-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781137030009

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Europe's Next Avoidable War by M. Kambeck,S. Ghazaryan Pdf

An international and interdisciplinary group of experts shed light upon the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict today, how it evolved and likely scenarios. Taking into account a changed political landscape, including the EU's new foreign policy instruments, they also make concrete policy proposals to make war less likely.

The Long Game

Author : Rush Doshi
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 433 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2021-06-11
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780197527870

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The Long Game by Rush Doshi Pdf

For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.

China's New Red Guards

Author : Jude Blanchette
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
Page : 225 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : HISTORY
ISBN : 9780190605841

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China's New Red Guards by Jude Blanchette Pdf

In China's New Red Guards, Jude Blanchette illuminates two trends in contemporary China that point to its revival of Mao Zedong's legacy-a development that he argues will result in a more authoritarian and more militaristic China. This book not only will reshape our understanding of the political forces driving contemporary China, it will also demonstrates how ideologies can survive and prosper despite pervasive rumors of their demise.

Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China

Author : Michael Beckley,Hal Brands
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
Page : 211 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2022-08-16
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781324021315

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Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China by Michael Beckley,Hal Brands Pdf

A provocative and urgent analysis of the U.S.–China rivalry. It has become conventional wisdom that America and China are running a “superpower marathon” that may last a century. Yet Hal Brands and Michael Beckley pose a counterintuitive question: What if the sharpest phase of that competition is more like a decade-long sprint? The Sino-American contest is driven by clashing geopolitical interests and a stark ideological dispute over whether authoritarianism or democracy will dominate the 21st century. But both history and China’s current trajectory suggest that this rivalry will reach its moment of maximum danger in the 2020s. China is at a perilous moment: strong enough to violently challenge the existing order, yet losing confidence that time is on its side. Numerous examples from antiquity to the present show that rising powers become most aggressive when their fortunes fade, their difficulties multiply, and they realize they must achieve their ambitions now or miss the chance to do so forever. China has already started down this path. Witness its aggression toward Taiwan, its record-breaking military buildup, and its efforts to dominate the critical technologies that will shape the world’s future. Over the long run, the Chinese challenge will most likely prove more manageable than many pessimists currently believe—but during the 2020s, the pace of Sino-American conflict will accelerate, and the prospect of war will be frighteningly real. America, Brands and Beckley argue, will still need a sustainable approach to winning a protracted global competition. But first, it needs a near-term strategy for navigating the danger zone ahead.

Churchill, Hitler, and "The Unnecessary War"

Author : Patrick J. Buchanan
Publisher : Forum Books
Page : 562 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2008-05-27
Category : History
ISBN : 9780307409560

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Churchill, Hitler, and "The Unnecessary War" by Patrick J. Buchanan Pdf

Were World Wars I and II inevitable? Were they necessary wars? Or were they products of calamitous failures of judgment? In this monumental and provocative history, Patrick Buchanan makes the case that, if not for the blunders of British statesmen– Winston Churchill first among them–the horrors of two world wars and the Holocaust might have been avoided and the British Empire might never have collapsed into ruins. Half a century of murderous oppression of scores of millions under the iron boot of Communist tyranny might never have happened, and Europe’s central role in world affairs might have been sustained for many generations. Among the British and Churchillian errors were: • The secret decision of a tiny cabal in the inner Cabinet in 1906 to take Britain straight to war against Germany, should she invade France • The vengeful Treaty of Versailles that mutilated Germany, leaving her bitter, betrayed, and receptive to the appeal of Adolf Hitler • Britain’s capitulation, at Churchill’s urging, to American pressure to sever the Anglo-Japanese alliance, insulting and isolating Japan, pushing her onto the path of militarism and conquest • The greatest mistake in British history: the unsolicited war guarantee to Poland of March 1939, ensuring the Second World War Certain to create controversy and spirited argument, Churchill, Hitler, and “the Unnecessary War” is a grand and bold insight into the historic failures of judgment that ended centuries of European rule and guaranteed a future no one who lived in that vanished world could ever have envisioned.

Meeting China Halfway

Author : Lyle J. Goldstein
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2015-05-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781626166349

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Meeting China Halfway by Lyle J. Goldstein Pdf

Though a US China conflict is far from inevitable, major tensions are building in the Asia-Pacific region. These strains are the result of historical enmity, cultural divergence, and deep ideological estrangement, not to mention apprehensions fueled by geopolitical competition and the closely related “security dilemma.” Despite worrying signs of intensifying rivalry, few observers have provided concrete paradigms to lead this troubled relationship away from disaster. This book is dramatically different in that Lyle J. Goldstein’s focus is on laying bare both US and Chinese perceptions of where their interests clash and proposing new paths to ease bilateral tensions through compromise. Each chapter contains a “cooperation spiral” —the opposite of an escalation spiral—to illustrate these policy proposals. Goldstein makes one hundred policy proposals over the course of this book to inaugurate a genuine debate regarding cooperative policy solutions to the most vexing problems in US-China relations. Goldstein not only parses findings from American scholarship but also breaks new ground by analyzing hundreds of Chinese-language sources, including military publications, never before evaluated by Western experts. Meeting China Halfway, new in paperback, remains a refreshing and unique contribution to the study of the world’s most important bilateral relationship.

The Last President of Europe

Author : William Drozdiak
Publisher : PublicAffairs
Page : 222 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2020-04-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781541742574

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The Last President of Europe by William Drozdiak Pdf

A revelatory examination of the global impact of Emmanuel Macron's tumultuous presidency. A political novice leading a brand new party, in 2017 Emmanuel Macron swept away traditional political forces and emerged as president of France. Almost immediately he realized his task was not only to modernize his country but to save the EU and a crumbling international order. From the decline of NATO, to Russian interference, to the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) protestors, Macron's term unfolded against a backdrop of social conflict, clashing ambitions, and resurgent big-power rivalries. In The Last President of Europe, William Drozdiak tells with exclusive inside access the story of Macron's presidency and the political challenges the French leader continues to face. Macron has ridden a wild rollercoaster of success and failure: he has a unique relationship with Donald Trump, a close-up view of the decline of Angela Merkel, and is both the greatest beneficiary from, and victim of, the chaos of Brexit across the Channel. He is fighting his own populist insurrection in France at the same time as he is trying to defend a system of values that once represented the West but is now under assault from all sides. Together these challenges make Macron the most consequential French leader of modern times, and perhaps the last true champion of the European ideal.

Getting China Wrong

Author : Aaron L. Friedberg
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 171 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2022-03-14
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781509545131

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Getting China Wrong by Aaron L. Friedberg Pdf

The West's strategy of engagement with China has failed. More than three decades of trade and investment with the advanced democracies have left that country far richer and stronger than it would otherwise have been. But growth and development have not caused China's rulers to relax their grip on political power, abandon their mercantilist economic policies, or accept the rules and norms of the existing international system. To the contrary: China today is more repressive at home, more aggressive abroad, and more obviously intent on establishing itself as the world’s preponderant power than at any time since the death of Chairman Mao. What went wrong? Put simply, the democracies underestimated the resilience, resourcefulness, and ruthlessness of the Chinese Communist Party. For far too long, the United States and its allies failed to take seriously the Party's unwavering determination to crush opposition, build national power, and fulfill its ideological and geopolitical ambitions. In this timely and powerfully argued study, Aaron Friedberg identifies the assumptions underpinning engagement, describes the counterstrategy that China's Communist Party rulers devised in order to exploit the West's openness while defeating its plans, and explains what the democracies must do now if they wish to preserve their prosperity, protect their security, and defend their common values.

Chinese Communist Espionage

Author : Peter Mattis,Matthew Brazil
Publisher : Naval Institute Press
Page : 332 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2019-11-15
Category : History
ISBN : 9781682473047

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Chinese Communist Espionage by Peter Mattis,Matthew Brazil Pdf

This is the first book of its kind to employ hundreds of Chinese sources to explain the history and current state of Chinese Communist intelligence operations. It profiles the leaders, top spies, and important operations in the history of China's espionage organs, and links to an extensive online glossary of Chinese language intelligence and security terms. Peter Mattis and Matthew Brazil present an unprecedented look into the murky world of Chinese espionage both past and present, enabling a better understanding of how pervasive and important its influence is, both in China and abroad.