The Black Swan Second Edition

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The Black Swan: Second Edition

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan Second Edition Book PDF

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
Page : 482 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2010-05-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780812973815

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The Black Swan: Second Edition by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.” A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.

Incerto 4-Book Bundle

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Incerto 4 Book Bundle Book PDF

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Page : 1377 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2016-01-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780812997699

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Incerto 4-Book Bundle by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Incerto 5-Book Bundle

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Incerto 5 Book Bundle Book PDF

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Page : 1345 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2021-05-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780593243664

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Incerto 5-Book Bundle by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

The landmark five-book series—all together in one ebook bundle The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This ebook bundle includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

The Black Swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan Book PDF

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Page : 481 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2007-04-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781588365835

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The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

Fooled by Randomness

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Fooled by Randomness Book PDF

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Page : 369 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2008-10-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781588367679

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Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

Incerto

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Incerto Book PDF

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House Trade
Page : 1873 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-04
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9780593243657

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Incerto by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan

Eric Lybeck
An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb s The Black Swan Book PDF

Author : Eric Lybeck
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 91 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2017-07-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351351195

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An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan by Eric Lybeck Pdf

One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

Black Swan Green

David Mitchell
Black Swan Green Book PDF

Author : David Mitchell
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
Page : 303 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2007-02-27
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9780812974010

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Black Swan Green by David Mitchell Pdf

By the New York Times bestselling author of The Bone Clocks and Cloud Atlas | Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize Selected by Time as One of the Ten Best Books of the Year | A New York Times Notable Book | Named One of the Best Books of the Year by The Washington Post Book World, The Christian Science Monitor, Rocky Mountain News, and Kirkus Reviews | A Los Angeles Times Book Prize Finalist | Winner of the ALA Alex Award | Finalist for the Costa Novel Award From award-winning writer David Mitchell comes a sinewy, meditative novel of boyhood on the cusp of adulthood and the old on the cusp of the new. Black Swan Green tracks a single year in what is, for thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor, the sleepiest village in muddiest Worcestershire in a dying Cold War England, 1982. But the thirteen chapters, each a short story in its own right, create an exquisitely observed world that is anything but sleepy. A world of Kissingeresque realpolitik enacted in boys’ games on a frozen lake; of “nightcreeping” through the summer backyards of strangers; of the tabloid-fueled thrills of the Falklands War and its human toll; of the cruel, luscious Dawn Madden and her power-hungry boyfriend, Ross Wilcox; of a certain Madame Eva van Outryve de Crommelynck, an elderly bohemian emigré who is both more and less than she appears; of Jason’s search to replace his dead grandfather’s irreplaceable smashed watch before the crime is discovered; of first cigarettes, first kisses, first Duran Duran LPs, and first deaths; of Margaret Thatcher’s recession; of Gypsies camping in the woods and the hysteria they inspire; and, even closer to home, of a slow-motion divorce in four seasons. Pointed, funny, profound, left-field, elegiac, and painted with the stuff of life, Black Swan Green is David Mitchell’s subtlest and most effective achievement to date. Praise for Black Swan Green “[David Mitchell has created] one of the most endearing, smart, and funny young narrators ever to rise up from the pages of a novel. . . . The always fresh and brilliant writing will carry readers back to their own childhoods. . . . This enchanting novel makes us remember exactly what it was like.”—The Boston Globe “[David Mitchell is a] prodigiously daring and imaginative young writer. . . . As in the works of Thomas Pynchon and Herman Melville, one feels the roof of the narrative lifted off and oneself in thrall.”—Time

The Witch's Dream

Victoria Danann
The Witch s Dream Book PDF

Author : Victoria Danann
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 260 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2012-10-04
Category : Knights and knighthood
ISBN : 193332063X

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The Witch's Dream by Victoria Danann Pdf

BEST PARANORMAL ROMANCE SERIES of 2013, Reviewers' Choice Awards, the Paranormal Romance Guild. Night Owl Reviews TOP PICK LISTOPIA TOP 50 Love Stories READING THE SERIES IN ORDER HIGHLY RECOMMENDED. DESCRIPTION: His dreams were left behind when Elora Laiken chose his best friend. Now Sir Engel Storm has had it with love, but a transplanted witch with a big secret is set on changing his mind. B Team is on temporary assignment to Black Swan headquarters in Edinburgh where they are supposed to fill in for stretched-thin resources and assist with a werewolf issue. They've been given permission to stop in Ireland for a few days and help celebrate a handfasting at the palace in Derry. When they reach Edinburgh, the afterglow of an elftale wedding ends abruptly when Kay's fiance is taken by a demon with a grudge. While Black Swan's best tracker looks for Katrina, Elora, Ram, and Baka are tasked with bringing in a stray werewolf causing havoc in London and finding him a suitable new home. INCLUDES: The first chapter of the third book, A Summoner's Tale If you love romance, paranormal, science fiction, fantasy, strong female leads, alpha males and complex storylines, this series is right for you. 17+ ..".dramatically fun, sexy, and addictive." - Between the Bind "Sometimes sequels can be a bit of a disappointment, but Victoria Danann has written an intriguing sequel that surpasses My Familiar Stranger." - Ramblings of Coffee Addicted Writer Blog "Wow, Danann does it again. The lady knows how to weave quite the story. Filled with magick, love, and jealousy The Witch's Dream is a sweet and sexy good time." - Bitten by Paranormal Romance "The story itself begins fast and never once slows down. The characters from the first book are back and smarter and sassier than ever. There is plenty of blazing hot romance, as well as plenty of adventure and dimension jumping." -Night Owl Reviews TOP PICK "This is a wonderful series of handsome, macho men and beautiful, intelligent women. I highly recommend this series and look forward to book number three." -The Paranormal Romance Guild

The Black Swan

Raphael Sabatini
The Black Swan Book PDF

Author : Raphael Sabatini
Publisher : House of Stratus
Page : 236 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2014-11-30
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9780755152711

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The Black Swan by Raphael Sabatini Pdf

When Priscilla Harradine travels back to England on the Centaur she has no cause to expect her journey will be remotely eventful. But also on board is Charles de Bernis – a mysterious and intriguing buccaneer. Just as their friendship blossoms, a dark figure from de Bernis’ past emerges to propel them into a thrilling and perilous adventure.

The Next Age of Uncertainty

Stephen Poloz
The Next Age of Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Stephen Poloz
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2022-02-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780735243910

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The Next Age of Uncertainty by Stephen Poloz Pdf

*FINALIST FOR THE 2023 OTTAWA BOOK AWARD* *SHORTLISTED FOR THE SHAUGHNESSY COHEN PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING* *SHORTLISTED FOR THE 2022 DONNER PRIZE* NATIONAL BESTSELLER From the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, a far-seeing guide to the powerful economic forces that will shape the decades ahead. The economic ground is shifting beneath our feet. The world is becoming more volatile, and people are understandably worried about their financial futures. In this urgent and accessible guide to the crises and opportunities that lie ahead, economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz maps out the powerful tectonic forces that are shaping our future, and the ideas that will allow us to master them. These forces include an aging workforce, mounting debt, and rising income inequality. Technological advances, too, are adding to the pressure, putting people out of work, and climate change is forcing a transition to a lower-carbon economy. It is no surprise that people are feeling uncertain. The implications of these tectonic tensions will cascade throughout every dimension of our lives—the job market, the housing market, the investment climate, as well as government and central bank policy, and the role of the corporation within society. The pandemic has added momentum to many of them. Poloz skillfully argues that past crises, from the Victorian Depression in the late 1800s to the more recent downturn in 2008, give a hint of what is in store for us in the decades ahead. Unlike the purely destructive power of earthquakes, the upheaval that is sure to come in the decades ahead will offer unexpected opportunities for renewal and growth. Filled with takeaways for employers, investors, and policymakers, as well as families discussing jobs and mortgage renewals around the kitchen table, The Next Age of Uncertainty is an indispensable guide for those navigating the fault lines of the risky world ahead.

The Black Swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan Book PDF

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House Digital, Inc.
Page : 388 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2009-10-13
Category : Forecasting
ISBN : 9780812979183

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The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.

Black Swan

Kel Carpenter,Aurelia Jane
Black Swan Book PDF

Author : Kel Carpenter,Aurelia Jane
Publisher : Raging Hippo LLC
Page : 327 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2021-12-13
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781957953267

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Black Swan by Kel Carpenter,Aurelia Jane Pdf

Everyone wants to be different, until they are. Take it from a true Heinz 57, being special isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Especially when it sets off a series of events that will end the world. You know, the catastrophe I was sent to prevent in the first place. Fate has a funny way of doing whatever it wants. In trying to change the future, I’m now the catalyst for destruction. I should have known it was a bad omen when I shifted into a white raven instead of a wolf. Our enemies may be more powerful than we ever imagined, but I’ve got a talking crow and Bloody Mary on my side. I have friends now—and family. Not to mention, one hell of a love life I have no intention of giving up. I would die for any of them, but that’s not the plan. It’s time to see if I can stop this black swan. Tick. Tock. BLACK SWAN is book three in A Demon's Guide to the Afterlife series. This is the FINAL book in Fury's story. This is an adult paranormal romance series with multiple love interests and some dark elements. If you don't like strong but flawed women and alphahole heroes that need to learn a thing or two about boundaries--this book is not for you. If you love works by Kristen Banet, Ivy Asher, Raven Kennedy, Jaymin Eve, and Kristy Cunning, then dive right in to the Afterlife. It'll be one hell of a ride.

The Swan Book

Alexis Wright
The Swan Book Book PDF

Author : Alexis Wright
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 320 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2016-06-28
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781501124785

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The Swan Book by Alexis Wright Pdf

Originally published: Australia: Giramondo, 2013.

The Black Swan of Paris

Karen Robards
The Black Swan of Paris Book PDF

Author : Karen Robards
Publisher : MIRA
Page : 512 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2022-07-26
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 0778386651

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The Black Swan of Paris by Karen Robards Pdf

Boldly conceived and richly realized...an emotional and powerful tale. --Pam Jenoff, New York Times bestselling author of The Lost Girls of Paris A world at war. A beautiful young star. A mission no one expected. Paris, 1944 Celebrated singer Genevieve Dumont is both a star and a smoke screen. An unwilling darling to the Nazis, the chanteuse's position of privilege allows her to go undetected as an ally to the resistance. When her estranged mother, Lillian de Rocheford, is captured by Nazis, Genevieve knows it won't be long before the gestapo succeeds in torturing information out of Lillian that will derail the upcoming Allied invasion. The resistance movement must silence her by any means necessary--including assassination. But Genevieve refuses to let her mother become yet one more victim of the war. Reuniting with her long-lost sister, she must navigate the perilous crosscurrents of occupied France undetected--and in time to save Lillian's life.