The Black Swan

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The Black Swan

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House Digital, Inc.
Page : 388 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2009-10-13
Category : Forecasting
ISBN : 9780812979183

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The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.

The Black Swan

Author : Mercedes Lackey
Publisher : Astra Publishing House
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2000-05-01
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781101119068

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The Black Swan by Mercedes Lackey Pdf

After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.

Black Swans

Author : Eve Babitz
Publisher : Catapult
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2018-04-01
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781640090514

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Black Swans by Eve Babitz Pdf

"Babitz’s talent for the brilliant line, honed to a point, never interferes with her feel for languid pleasures." —The New York Times Book Review A new reissue of Babitz’s collection of nine stories that look back on the 1980s and early 1990s—decades of dreams, drink, and glimpses of a changing world. Black Swans further celebrates the phenomenon of Eve Babitz, cementing her reputation as the voice of a generation. With an introduction by Stephanie Danler, bestselling author of Sweetbitter. "On the page, Babitz is pure pleasure—a perpetual–motion machine of no–stakes elation and champagne fizz." —The New Yorker

The Black Swan of Paris

Author : Karen Robards
Publisher : MIRA
Page : 400 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2020-06-30
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9781488055331

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The Black Swan of Paris by Karen Robards Pdf

An exquisite WWII novel illuminating the strength of three women in occupied Paris, for fans of The Nightingale, The Alice Network and The Lost Girls of Paris. "A truly outstanding novel...reminds us of the power of love, hope and courage."—Heather Morris, #1 bestselling author of The Tattooist of Auschwitz Paris, 1944 Celebrated singer Genevieve Dumont is both a star and a smokescreen. An unwilling darling of the Nazis, the chanteuse’s position of privilege allows her to go undetected as an ally to the resistance. When her estranged mother, Lillian de Rocheford, is captured by Nazis, Genevieve knows it won’t be long before the Gestapo succeeds in torturing information out of Lillian that will derail the upcoming allied invasion. The resistance movement is tasked with silencing her by any means necessary—including assassination. But Genevieve refuses to let her mother become yet one more victim of the war. Reuniting with her long-lost sister, she must find a way to navigate the perilous cross-currents of Occupied France undetected—and in time to save Lillian’s life. In this heart-wrenching novel, bestselling author Karen Robards showcases the extraordinary lengths one goes to save their family from a German prison. A web of spies, the resistance and a vivid portrayal of Paris in wartime.

Incerto 4-Book Bundle

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Page : 1377 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2016-01-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780812997699

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Incerto 4-Book Bundle by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

The Black Swan (Historical Novel)

Author : Rafael Sabatini
Publisher : e-artnow
Page : 185 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2021-05-07
Category : Fiction
ISBN : EAN:4064066382377

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The Black Swan (Historical Novel) by Rafael Sabatini Pdf

Priscilla Harradine is the daughter of the recently deceased governor of the Leeward Islands in the West Indies who travels back to England with her father's second-in-command, Major Bartholomew Sands. Sands plans to marry Priscilla upon returning and to live in comfort off of her inheritance. However, a late passenger boards their ship and it turns out to be an ex pirate Charles de Bernis, mysterious and rogue character who obtains Priscilla's attention. As their friendship grows, a shady person from buccaneer's past comes back to haunt him and takes them in a dangerous adventure.

Stalking the Black Swan

Author : Kenneth A. Posner
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2010-03-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0231521677

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Stalking the Black Swan by Kenneth A. Posner Pdf

Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Black Swan Green

Author : David Mitchell
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
Page : 306 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2007-02-27
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9780812974010

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Black Swan Green by David Mitchell Pdf

By the New York Times bestselling author of The Bone Clocks and Cloud Atlas | Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize Selected by Time as One of the Ten Best Books of the Year | A New York Times Notable Book | Named One of the Best Books of the Year by The Washington Post Book World, The Christian Science Monitor, Rocky Mountain News, and Kirkus Reviews | A Los Angeles Times Book Prize Finalist | Winner of the ALA Alex Award | Finalist for the Costa Novel Award From award-winning writer David Mitchell comes a sinewy, meditative novel of boyhood on the cusp of adulthood and the old on the cusp of the new. Black Swan Green tracks a single year in what is, for thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor, the sleepiest village in muddiest Worcestershire in a dying Cold War England, 1982. But the thirteen chapters, each a short story in its own right, create an exquisitely observed world that is anything but sleepy. A world of Kissingeresque realpolitik enacted in boys’ games on a frozen lake; of “nightcreeping” through the summer backyards of strangers; of the tabloid-fueled thrills of the Falklands War and its human toll; of the cruel, luscious Dawn Madden and her power-hungry boyfriend, Ross Wilcox; of a certain Madame Eva van Outryve de Crommelynck, an elderly bohemian emigré who is both more and less than she appears; of Jason’s search to replace his dead grandfather’s irreplaceable smashed watch before the crime is discovered; of first cigarettes, first kisses, first Duran Duran LPs, and first deaths; of Margaret Thatcher’s recession; of Gypsies camping in the woods and the hysteria they inspire; and, even closer to home, of a slow-motion divorce in four seasons. Pointed, funny, profound, left-field, elegiac, and painted with the stuff of life, Black Swan Green is David Mitchell’s subtlest and most effective achievement to date. Praise for Black Swan Green “[David Mitchell has created] one of the most endearing, smart, and funny young narrators ever to rise up from the pages of a novel. . . . The always fresh and brilliant writing will carry readers back to their own childhoods. . . . This enchanting novel makes us remember exactly what it was like.”—The Boston Globe “[David Mitchell is a] prodigiously daring and imaginative young writer. . . . As in the works of Thomas Pynchon and Herman Melville, one feels the roof of the narrative lifted off and oneself in thrall.”—Time

Black Swan

Author : Lyrae Van Clief-Stefanon
Publisher : University of Pittsburgh Press
Page : 72 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2002-11-15
Category : Poetry
ISBN : 9780822979678

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Black Swan by Lyrae Van Clief-Stefanon Pdf

Winner of the 2001 Cave Canem Prize Selected by Marilyn Nelson Finalist, 2003 Paterson Poetry Prize "Imagine Leda black—" begins Lyrae Van Clief-Stefanon’s exciting new collection of poems. Mixing vernacular language with classical mythology, modern struggles with Biblical trials, she gives voice to silenced women past and present. In Van Clief-Stefanon’s powerful voice, last night’s angry words "puffed / into the dark room like steam / punching through the thick surface / of cooking grits." She remembers a child’s innocence "lost / in the house where I learned the red rug / against my chest, my knees / my tongue, . . . ." Black Swan is filled with pain, loss, hope, and the promise of salvation.

The Treasure of the Black Swan

Author : Paco Roca,Guillermo Corral
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 224 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2022-05-03
Category : Comics & Graphic Novels
ISBN : 1683965787

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The Treasure of the Black Swan by Paco Roca,Guillermo Corral Pdf

This thrilling graphic novel, based on real events and which has been adapted into an AMC Plus miniseries (La Fortuna) starring Stanley Tucci, chronicles the intense legal and political battles sparked by the discovery of a priceless shipwreck.

Black Swan

Author : Susan Anderson
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 90 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2024-02-29
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Black Swan by Susan Anderson Pdf

Nina is an exceptionally talented ballerina in a New York City ballet company. When artistic director Thomas Leroy decides to replace prima ballerina Beth Macintyre for the opening production of their new season, Swan Lake, Nina is his first choice. But she has competition: new dancer Lily, who impresses Leroy as well. Swan Lake requires a dancer who can play both the White Swan with innocence and grace, and the Black Swan, who represents guile and sensuality. Nina fits the White Swan role perfectly but Lily is the personification of the Black Swan. As the two young dancers expand their rivalry into a twisted friendship, Nina begins to get more in touch with her dark side - a recklessness that threatens to destroy her. | Originally produced as an American motion picture in 2010. | Performed by: Natalie Portman, Vincent Cassel, Mila Kunis, Barbara Hershey, Winona Ryder. Directed by Darren Aronofsky ; screenplay by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John McLaughlin ; story by Andres Heinz ; produced by Mike Medavoy, Arnold W. Messer, Brian Oliver, Scott Franklin ; director of photography, Matthew Libatique ; production designer, Therese DePrez ; editor, Andrew Weisblum ; costume designer, Amy Westcott ; original score, Clint Mansell ; visual effects supervisor, Dan Schrecker ; ballet choreography, Benjamin Millepied ; ballet costumes designed by Kate and Laura Mulleavy ; music for 'Swan Lake' composed by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky. | In English, English audio descriptive for the visually impaired, Castilian Spanish, Italian; with optional subtitles in English for the hearing impaired, Castilian Spanish, Danish, Finnish, Italian, Norwegian, Swedish. | R16 - Restricted to persons 16 years and over. Note: Violence, sex scenes and content that may disturb. | Region 4, PAL.

Incerto 5-Book Bundle

Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Page : 1345 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2021-05-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780593243664

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Incerto 5-Book Bundle by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Pdf

The landmark five-book series—all together in one ebook bundle The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This ebook bundle includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan

Author : Eric Lybeck
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 91 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2017-07-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351351195

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An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan by Eric Lybeck Pdf

One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction.

Black Swan Affair

Author : K. L. Kreig
Publisher : K.L. Kreig
Page : 322 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2016-09
Category : Romance fiction
ISBN : 1943443149

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Black Swan Affair by K. L. Kreig Pdf

I've loved him as long as I can remember. The gangly boy with big brown eyes and unruly hair who grew up into an intoxicating man. He wears scruff like he invented it and ambles with a swagger that makes panties drop. Killian Shepard. Shep. We grew up together. We played Ghost in the Graveyard. Had our own rock band. It didn't matter that he was five years older than me. It didn't matter that he looked at me as a kid sister even as I grew into woman. It didn't even matter when he left me behind to go to college and start his adult life. He'd be back. He was always meant to be mine. He came back, all right. But instead of smelling of promises, he stunk of betrayal. And he destroyed me-us-the day he married my sister instead of me. So I did the only thing a girl like me in my position could do. I got my revenge. I married his brother, Kael. Now we're one big happy f**king family.

White Swan, Black Swan

Author : Adrienne Sharp
Publisher : Ballantine Books
Page : 239 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2008-12-18
Category : Fiction
ISBN : 9780307493101

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White Swan, Black Swan by Adrienne Sharp Pdf

The world's most famous choreographer becomes infatuated with a coltish young dancer who proves both siren and muse. A rising star plunges into an affair with a principal but finds that ecstasy on the stage can't be surpassed in the bed. A dying legend reflects on the evanescent beauty of a life of gesture, lost to everything but memory. Each bittersweet story plants the reader amid a cast of dancers and choreographers who struggle—valiantly, playfully, fiercely—to find in the rigorous discipline and animating beauty of ballet a counterbalance to the chaos of unscripted life. Many of the tales dare to imagine the inner lives of the century's titans—Balanchine, Fonteyn and Nureyev—which rival in emotional complexity and pathos the classic dramas they enacted onstage: La Bayadere, Don Quixote, Swan Lake. White Swan, Black Swan translates the pure and essential gestures of ballet into starkly elegant prose while showing the sweat and sex beneath the serene surface. Adrienne Sharp's debut is a bravura performance.