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The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy by Edward N. Luttwak Pdf
As the rest of the world worries about what a future might look like under Chinese supremacy, Luttwak worries about China’s own future prospects. Applying the logic of strategy for which he is well known, he argues that the world’s second largest economy may be headed for a fall unless China’s leaders check their military ambitions.
“If you want peace, prepare for war.” “A buildup of offensive weapons can be purely defensive.” “The worst road may be the best route to battle.” Strategy is made of such seemingly self-contradictory propositions, Edward Luttwak shows—they exemplify the paradoxical logic that pervades the entire realm of conflict.In this widely acclaimed work, now revised and expanded, Luttwak unveils the peculiar logic of strategy level by level, from grand strategy down to combat tactics. Having participated in its planning, Luttwak examines the role of air power in the 1991 Gulf War, then detects the emergence of “post-heroic” war in Kosovo in 1999—an American war in which not a single American soldier was killed.In the tradition of Carl von Clausewitz, Strategy goes beyond paradox to expose the dynamics of reversal at work in the crucible of conflict. As victory is turned into defeat by over-extension, as war brings peace by exhaustion, ordinary linear logic is overthrown. Citing examples from ancient Rome to our own days, from Barbarossa and Pearl Harbor down to minor combat affrays, from the strategy of peace to the latest operational methods of war, this book by one of the world’s foremost authorities reveals the ultimate logic of military failure and success, of war and peace.
Interpreting China's Grand Strategy by Michael D. Swaine,Sara A. Daly,Peter W. Greenwood Pdf
China's continuing rapid economic growth and expanding involvement in global affairs pose major implications for the power structure of the international system. To more accurately and fully assess the significance of China's emergence for the United States and the global community, it is necessary to gain a more complete understanding of Chinese security thought and behavior. This study addresses such questions as: What are China's most fundamental national security objectives? How has the Chinese state employed force and diplomacy in the pursuit of these objectives over the centuries? What security strategy does China pursue today and how will it evolve in the future? The study asserts that Chinese history, the behavior of earlier rising powers, and the basic structure and logic of international power relations all suggest that, although a strong China will likely become more assertive globally, this possibility is unlikely to emerge before 2015-2020 at the earliest. To handle this situation, the study argues that the United States should adopt a policy of realistic engagement with China that combines efforts to pursue cooperation whenever possible; to prevent, if necessary, the acquisition by China of capabilities that would threaten America's core national security interests; and to remain prepared to cope with the consequences of a more assertive China.
From 1949 to 1978, communist elites held clashing visions of China's economic development. Mao Zedong advocated the "first way" of semi-autarchy characteristic of revolutionary Stalinism (1929-34), while Zhou Enlai adapted bureaucratic Stalinism (1934-53) to promote the "second way" of import substitution industrialization. A Third Way tells the story of Deng Xiaoping's experimentation with export-led development inspired by Lenin's New Economic Policy and the economic reforms of Eastern Europe and Asia. Having uncovered an extraordinary collection of internal party and government documents, Lawrence Reardon meticulously traces the evolution of the coastal development strategy, starting with special economic zones in 1979 and evolving into the fourteen open coastal cities, the Hainan SEZ, and eventual accession to the global trade regime in 2001. Reardon details how Deng and Zhao Ziyang tackled large-scale smuggling operations, compromised with Chen Yun's conservative views, and overcame Deng Liqun's ideological opposition. Although Zhao Ziyang was airbrushed out of official Chinese history after June 4, 1989, Reardon argues that Zhao was the true architect of China's opening strategy. A Third Way provides important new insights about the crucial period of the 1980s and how it paved the way for China's transformation into a global economic superpower.
The Grand Strategy of the Byzantine Empire by Edward Luttwak Pdf
In this book, the distinguished writer Edward Luttwak presents the grand strategy of the eastern Roman empire we know as Byzantine, which lasted more than twice as long as the more familiar western Roman empire, eight hundred years by the shortest definition. This extraordinary endurance is all the more remarkable because the Byzantine empire was favored neither by geography nor by military preponderance. Yet it was the western empire that dissolved during the fifth century. The Byzantine empire so greatly outlasted its western counterpart because its rulers were able to adapt strategically to diminished circumstances, by devising new ways of coping with successive enemies. It relied less on military strength and more on persuasion—to recruit allies, dissuade threatening neighbors, and manipulate potential enemies into attacking one another instead. Even when the Byzantines fought—which they often did with great skill—they were less inclined to destroy their enemies than to contain them, for they were aware that today’s enemies could be tomorrow’s allies. Born in the fifth century when the formidable threat of Attila’s Huns were deflected with a minimum of force, Byzantine strategy continued to be refined over the centuries, incidentally leaving for us several fascinating guidebooks to statecraft and war. The Grand Strategy of the Byzantine Empire is a broad, interpretive account of Byzantine strategy, intelligence, and diplomacy over the course of eight centuries that will appeal to scholars, classicists, military history buffs, and professional soldiers.
Author : Robert D. Blackwill,Ashley J. Tellis Publisher : Council on Foreign Relations Page : 54 pages File Size : 46,6 Mb Release : 2015-04-01 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9780876096468
Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China by Robert D. Blackwill,Ashley J. Tellis Pdf
Robert D. Blackwill and Ashley J. Tellis argue that the United States has responded inadequately to the rise of Chinese power. This Council Special Report recommends placing less strategic emphasis on the goal of integrating China into the international system and more on balancing China's rise.
Andrew Scobell,Edmund J. Burke,Cortez A. Cooper III,Sale Lilly,Chad J. R. Ohlandt,Eric Warner,J.D. Williams
Author : Andrew Scobell,Edmund J. Burke,Cortez A. Cooper III,Sale Lilly,Chad J. R. Ohlandt,Eric Warner,J.D. Williams Publisher : Rand Corporation Page : 155 pages File Size : 46,9 Mb Release : 2020-07-27 Category : History ISBN : 9781977404206
China’s Grand Strategy by Andrew Scobell,Edmund J. Burke,Cortez A. Cooper III,Sale Lilly,Chad J. R. Ohlandt,Eric Warner,J.D. Williams Pdf
To explore what extended competition between the United States and China might entail out to 2050, the authors of this report identified and characterized China’s grand strategy, analyzed its component national strategies (diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs), and assessed how successful China might be at implementing these over the next three decades.
In this widely acclaimed work, now revised and expanded, Luttwak unveils the peculiar logic of strategy level by level, from grand strategy down to combat tactics. He explores examples from ancient Rome to present day to reveal the ultimate logic of military failure and success, of war and peace. 5 tables.
Why and how America’s defense strategy must change in light of China’s power and ambition Elbridge A. Colby was the lead architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the most significant revision of U.S. defense strategy in a generation. Here he lays out how America’s defense must change to address China’s growing power and ambition. Based firmly in the realist tradition but deeply engaged in current policy, this book offers a clear framework for what America’s goals in confronting China must be, how its military strategy must change, and how it must prioritize these goals over its lesser interests. The most informed and in-depth reappraisal of America’s defense strategy in decades, this book outlines a rigorous but practical approach, showing how the United States can prepare to win a war with China that we cannot afford to lose—precisely in order to deter that war from happening.
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.
Today’s international climate is one of disorder. A League of Dictators (China, Russia, Iran) is threatening the superpower status of the United States of America, and the liberal international order it has underwritten. A piecemeal Third World War seems to have begun. Eminent economist Deepak Lal argues that the global financial crisis was the proximate cause for a revanchist China and Russia believing that the liberal economic order promoted by the US was on its deathbed, and their illiberal systems were the future. But Lal argues that reports of the economic woes of the US are greatly exaggerated—as are those of China’s prospects and Russia’s power. With a new regime, and the US’ continuing overwhelming economic and military strength, it can maintain its global hegemony by challenging the League of Dictators. India is increasingly a partner in this effort to maintain a liberal global order, by helping contain China’s burgeoning influence.
Author : John J. Mearsheimer Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company Page : 572 pages File Size : 52,5 Mb Release : 2003-01-17 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9780393076240
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (Updated Edition) by John J. Mearsheimer Pdf
"A superb book.…Mearsheimer has made a significant contribution to our understanding of the behavior of great powers."—Barry R. Posen, The National Interest The updated edition of this classic treatise on the behavior of great powers takes a penetrating look at the question likely to dominate international relations in the twenty-first century: Can China rise peacefully? In clear, eloquent prose, John Mearsheimer explains why the answer is no: a rising China will seek to dominate Asia, while the United States, determined to remain the world's sole regional hegemon, will go to great lengths to prevent that from happening. The tragedy of great power politics is inescapable.
Analysts debate the international implications of a newly powerful China.China's relentless economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s heralded its emergence as a great power in world politics. As its economy expanded, China seemed poised to become the second-largest economy in the world. At the same time, it modernized its military and adopted a more assertive diplomatic posture. Many observers have begun to debate the international implications of China's rise. Some analysts argue that China will inevitably pose a threat to peace and security in East Asia. A few even predict a new cold war between Beijing and Washington. Others claim that a powerful China can remain benign. None believes that China can be ignored. The essays in this volume assess China's emerging capabilities and intentions, debate the impact that China will have on security in the Asia-Pacific region, and propose polices for the United States to adopt in its relations with China.
The United States and a Rising China by Zalmay Khalilzad Pdf
China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development. The goal is to make China a developed country, which would, among other things, raise the standard of living and prepare the base for a strong military. The Chinese leadership considers good relations with the United States to be strongly advisable, if not absolutely necessary, but sovereignty concerns (especially with regard to Taiwan) could cause tensions in the Sino-U.S. relationship. China could emerge, by 2015, as a formidable power, one that might offer an alternative to the current U.S. role as the region's preferred security partner and its ultimate security manager. At present, the best U.S. response appears to be a combination of engagement and containment, a congagement policy that would continue to try to bring China into the current international system while both preparing for a possible Chinese challenge to it and seeking to convince the Chinese leadership that a challenge would be difficult and extremely risky to pursue.
The Economics and Politics of China’s Energy Security Transition by Hongtu Zhao Pdf
The Economics and Politics of China’s Energy Security Transition clarifies China’s energy and foreign policies through a comprehensive examination of energy sources, providing an insider’s unique perspective for assessing China’s energy policies. China’s historic decline in coal consumption since 2013-2014 and a plateauing of its carbon dioxide emissions have given China an unprecedented opportunity to decarbonize while growing its economy. In response to global questions about China’s institutional, administrative, and political challenges and risks, this book provides the answers that everyone is asking. Provides a rare assessment of China’s energy policies and reveals insights into the Chinese government Devotes attention to issues of global energy governance and energy sanctions Includes data and reference content suitable for researchers in economics, sustainability, energy policy, geopolitics and political science