Forecasting The Future

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Predicting the Future

Nicholas Rescher
Predicting the Future Book PDF

Author : Nicholas Rescher
Publisher : SUNY Press
Page : 334 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 1998-01-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 0791435539

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Predicting the Future by Nicholas Rescher Pdf

The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.

Time Series Prediction

Andreas S. Weigend
Time Series Prediction Book PDF

Author : Andreas S. Weigend
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 665 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2018-05-04
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780429972270

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Time Series Prediction by Andreas S. Weigend Pdf

The book is a summary of a time series forecasting competition that was held a number of years ago. It aims to provide a snapshot of the range of new techniques that are used to study time series, both as a reference for experts and as a guide for novices.

Future Ready

Steve Morlidge,Steve Player
Future Ready Book PDF

Author : Steve Morlidge,Steve Player
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2010-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780470662212

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Future Ready by Steve Morlidge,Steve Player Pdf

The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Forecasting: principles and practice

Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos
Forecasting principles and practice Book PDF

Author : Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos
Publisher : OTexts
Page : 380 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2018-05-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780987507112

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Forecasting: principles and practice by Rob J Hyndman,George Athanasopoulos Pdf

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

On Trend

Devon Powers
On Trend Book PDF

Author : Devon Powers
Publisher : University of Illinois Press
Page : 309 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2019-10-16
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780252051739

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On Trend by Devon Powers Pdf

Trends have become a commodity—an element of culture in their own right and the very currency of our cultural life. Consumer culture relies on a new class of professionals who explain trends, predict trends, and in profound ways even manufacture trends. On Trend delves into one of the most powerful forces in global consumer culture. From forecasting to cool hunting to design thinking, the work done by trend professionals influences how we live, work, play, shop, and learn. Devon Powers' provocative insights open up how the business of the future kindles exciting opportunity even as its practices raise questions about an economy increasingly built on nonstop disruption and innovation. Merging industry history with vivid portraits of today's trend visionaries, Powers reveals how trends took over, what it means for cultural change, and the price all of us pay to see—and live—the future.

The Knowable Future

David Loye
The Knowable Future Book PDF

Author : David Loye
Publisher : iUniverse
Page : 222 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 1998-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780966551457

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The Knowable Future by David Loye Pdf

The Knowable Future examines the science underlying futures prediction as a formal venture and as an informal activity. It explains how left brain rationality and right brain psychic abilities are both used in conjunction with forebrain governing capacities. Loye advances a theory of how the future is shaped by and predicted according to the “matrix impact” of liberalism, conservatism and five other major factors of ideology.

Managing the Future

Stephen M. Millett
Managing the Future Book PDF

Author : Stephen M. Millett
Publisher : Triarchy Press
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2011-11-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781909470002

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Managing the Future by Stephen M. Millett Pdf

A guide to forecasting and strategic planning for organizations

What About the Future?

Fred Phillips
What About the Future Book PDF

Author : Fred Phillips
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 157 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2019-08-26
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783030261658

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What About the Future? by Fred Phillips Pdf

This book closely examines the concept and theory of 'future' from a multidisciplinary perspective, focusing on the practice of forecasting, especially in its interaction with complexity. It highlights the relations between forecasting, decision-making and strategy, mixing technical arguments (but minimal mathematics) with ideas from psychology and philosophy. Rich with examples, the book highlights the role of values and attitudes in deciding how to look at the future. Written in a casual but precise style that makes the ideas easily digestible, it helps corporate strategists, practicing futurists, and researchers in the field of strategy or public planning gain a fundamental perspective on the future – before starting to predict things.

Forecasting Urban Travel

David E. Boyce,Huw C.W.L. Williams
Forecasting Urban Travel Book PDF

Author : David E. Boyce,Huw C.W.L. Williams
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 661 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2015-02-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781784713591

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Forecasting Urban Travel by David E. Boyce,Huw C.W.L. Williams Pdf

Forecasting Urban Travel presents in a non-mathematical way the evolution of methods, models and theories underpinning travel forecasts and policy analysis, from the early urban transportation studies of the 1950s to current applications throughout the

Time Series Prediction

Andreas S. Weigend
Time Series Prediction Book PDF

Author : Andreas S. Weigend
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 663 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2018-05-04
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780429961199

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Time Series Prediction by Andreas S. Weigend Pdf

The book is a summary of a time series forecasting competition that was held a number of years ago. It aims to provide a snapshot of the range of new techniques that are used to study time series, both as a reference for experts and as a guide for novices.

Atlas of Forecasts

Katy Borner
Atlas of Forecasts Book PDF

Author : Katy Borner
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 227 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2021-08-31
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780262045957

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Atlas of Forecasts by Katy Borner Pdf

Forecasting the future with advanced data models and visualizations. To envision and create the futures we want, society needs an appropriate understanding of the likely impact of alternative actions. Data models and visualizations offer a way to understand and intelligently manage complex, interlinked systems in science and technology, education, and policymaking. Atlas of Forecasts, from the creator of Atlas of Science and Atlas of Knowledge, shows how we can use data to predict, communicate, and ultimately attain desirable futures. Using advanced data visualizations to introduce different types of computational models, Atlas of Forecasts demonstrates how models can inform effective decision-making in education, science, technology, and policymaking. The models and maps presented aim to help anyone understand key processes and outcomes of complex systems dynamics, including which human skills are needed in an artificial intelligence-empowered economy; what progress in science and technology is likely to be made; and how policymakers can future-proof regions or nations. This Atlas offers a driver's seat-perspective for a test-drive of the future.

The Map and the Territory

Alan Greenspan
The Map and the Territory Book PDF

Author : Alan Greenspan
Publisher : Penguin
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2013-10-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781101638743

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The Map and the Territory by Alan Greenspan Pdf

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we’re steering by out-of-date maps, when we’re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author’s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can’t.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan’s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.

Superforecasting

Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Superforecasting Book PDF

Author : Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Publisher : Crown
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2015-09-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780804136709

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Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner Pdf

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

The Future of Everything

David Orrell
The Future of Everything Book PDF

Author : David Orrell
Publisher : Basic Books
Page : 464 pages
File Size : 54,8 Mb
Release : 2008-02-26
Category : Science
ISBN : 1568583699

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The Future of Everything by David Orrell Pdf

For centuries, scientists have strived to predict the future. But to what extent have they succeeded? Can past events-Hurricane Katrina, the Internet stock bubble, the SARS outbreak-help us understand what will happen next? Will scientists ever really be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives? In The Future of Everything, David Orrell looks back at the history of forecasting, from the time of the oracle at Delphi to the rise of astrology to the advent of the TV weather report, showing us how scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future. How can today's scientists claim to anticipate future weather events when even thee-day forecasts prove a serious challenge? How can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

Business Forecasting

Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Business Forecasting Book PDF

Author : Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 435 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119782476

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Business Forecasting by Michael Gilliland,Len Tashman,Udo Sglavo Pdf

Discover the role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in business forecasting from some of the brightest minds in the field In Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning accomplished authors Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, and Udo Sglavo deliver relevant and timely insights from some of the most important and influential authors in the field of forecasting. You'll learn about the role played by machine learning and AI in the forecasting process and discover brand-new research, case studies, and thoughtful discussions covering an array of practical topics. The book offers multiple perspectives on issues like monitoring forecast performance, forecasting process, communication and accountability for forecasts, and the use of big data in forecasting. You will find: Discussions on deep learning in forecasting, including current trends and challenges Explorations of neural network-based forecasting strategies A treatment of the future of artificial intelligence in business forecasting Analyses of forecasting methods, including modeling, selection, and monitoring In addition to the Foreword by renowned researchers Spyros Makridakis and Fotios Petropoulos, the book also includes 16 "opinion/editorial" Afterwords by a diverse range of top academics, consultants, vendors, and industry practitioners, each providing their own unique vision of the issues, current state, and future direction of business forecasting. Perfect for financial controllers, chief financial officers, business analysts, forecast analysts, and demand planners, Business Forecasting will also earn a place in the libraries of other executives and managers who seek a one-stop resource to help them critically assess and improve their own organization's forecasting efforts.