Geopolitical Risk On Stock Returns Evidence From

Author : Seungho Jung,Jongmin Lee,Seohyun Lee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 36 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2021-10-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781557759672

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Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics by Seungho Jung,Jongmin Lee,Seohyun Lee Pdf

We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.

Author : Joachim Klement
Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation
Page : 230 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2021-04-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781952927072

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Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments by Joachim Klement Pdf

Today’s investors need to understand geopolitical trends as a main driving force of markets. This book provides just that: an understanding of the interplay between geopolitics and economics, and of the impact of that dynamic on financial markets. To me, geo-economics is the study of how geopolitics and economics interact in international relations. Plenty of books on geopolitics have been written by eminent experts in politics and international affairs. This book is not one of them. First, I am neither a political scientist nor an expert in international affairs. I am an economist and an investment strategist who has been fascinated by geopolitics for many years. And this fascination has led me to the realization that almost all books and articles written on geopolitics are useless for investors. Political scientists are not trained to think like investors, and they are not typically trained in quantitative methods. Instead, they engage in developing narratives for geopolitical events and processes that pose risks and opportunities for investors. My main problem with these narratives is that they usually do not pass the “so what?” test. Geopolitical risks are important, but how am I to assess which risks are important for my portfolio and which ones are simply noise? Because geopolitics experts focus on politics, they do not provide an answer to this crucial question for investors. What could be important for a geopolitics expert and for global politics could be totally irrelevant for investors. For example, the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been going on for almost two decades now and have been an important influence on the political discussion in the United States. But for investors, the war in Afghanistan was a total nonevent, and the war in Iraq had only a fleeting influence, when it started in 2003. Geopolitics experts cannot answer the question of which geopolitical events matter for investors and which do not. Unfortunately, some experts thus claim that all geopolitical risks matter and that these risks cannot be quantified but only assessed qualitatively. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the chapters that follow, I discuss geopolitical and geo-economic events from the viewpoint of an investor and show that they can be quantified and introduced as part of a traditional risk management process. I do this in two parts. The first part of this book focuses on geopolitics that matters to investors. It reviews the literature on a range of geopolitical events and shows which events have a material economic effect and which do not. The second part of this book puts the insights from those first chapters into practice by applying them to current geopolitical trends. In this second part, I stick my head out and examine the impact the geopolitical trends have on the economy and financial markets today and their likely development in the coming years. —Joachim Klement, CFA

Author : Cosset, Jean-Claude,Marie-Claude Beaulieu,Université Laval. Faculté des sciences de l'administration. Direction de la recherche,Essaddam, Naceur
Publisher : Québec : Faculté des sciences de l'administration de l'Université Laval, Direction de la recherche
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2003
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 2895241651

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The Impact of Political Risk on the Volatility of Stock Returns : the Case of Canada by Cosset, Jean-Claude,Marie-Claude Beaulieu,Université Laval. Faculté des sciences de l'administration. Direction de la recherche,Essaddam, Naceur Pdf

Author : Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691219585

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Business Cycles by Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch Pdf

This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.

Author : Dean T. Jamison,Hellen Gelband,Susan Horton,Prabhat Jha,Charles N. Mock,Rachel Nugent
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 426 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2017-12-06
Category : Medical
ISBN : 9781464805288

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Disease Control Priorities, Third Edition (Volume 9) by Dean T. Jamison,Hellen Gelband,Susan Horton,Prabhat Jha,Charles N. Mock,Rachel Nugent Pdf

As the culminating volume in the DCP3 series, volume 9 will provide an overview of DCP3 findings and methods, a summary of messages and substantive lessons to be taken from DCP3, and a further discussion of cross-cutting and synthesizing topics across the first eight volumes. The introductory chapters (1-3) in this volume take as their starting point the elements of the Essential Packages presented in the overview chapters of each volume. First, the chapter on intersectoral policy priorities for health includes fiscal and intersectoral policies and assembles a subset of the population policies and applies strict criteria for a low-income setting in order to propose a "highest-priority" essential package. Second, the chapter on packages of care and delivery platforms for universal health coverage (UHC) includes health sector interventions, primarily clinical and public health services, and uses the same approach to propose a highest priority package of interventions and policies that meet similar criteria, provides cost estimates, and describes a pathway to UHC.

Author : Mr.Paul Cashin,Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,Mr.Mehdi Raissi,Maziar Raissi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2012-10-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475597158

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The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy by Mr.Paul Cashin,Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes,Mr.Mehdi Raissi,Maziar Raissi Pdf

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.

Author : A. Pasumpon Pandian,Klimis Ntalianis,Ram Palanisamy
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 748 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2019-10-18
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783030304652

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Intelligent Computing, Information and Control Systems by A. Pasumpon Pandian,Klimis Ntalianis,Ram Palanisamy Pdf

From past decades, Computational intelligence embraces a number of nature-inspired computational techniques which mainly encompasses fuzzy sets, genetic algorithms, artificial neural networks and hybrid neuro-fuzzy systems to address the computational complexities such as uncertainties, vagueness and stochastic nature of various computational problems practically. At the same time, Intelligent Control systems are emerging as an innovative methodology which is inspired by various computational intelligence process to promote a control over the systems without the use of any mathematical models. To address the effective use of intelligent control in Computational intelligence systems, International Conference on Intelligent Computing, Information and Control Systems (ICICCS 2019) is initiated to encompass the various research works that helps to develop and advance the next-generation intelligent computing and control systems. This book integrates the computational intelligence and intelligent control systems to provide a powerful methodology for a wide range of data analytics issues in industries and societal applications. The recent research advances in computational intelligence and control systems are addressed, which provide very promising results in various industry, business and societal studies. This book also presents the new algorithms and methodologies for promoting advances in common intelligent computing and control methodologies including evolutionary computation, artificial life, virtual infrastructures, fuzzy logic, artificial immune systems, neural networks and various neuro-hybrid methodologies. This book will be pragmatic for researchers, academicians and students dealing with mathematically intransigent problems. It is intended for both academicians and researchers in the field of Intelligent Computing, Information and Control Systems, along with the distinctive readers in the fields of computational and artificial intelligence to gain more knowledge on Intelligent computing and control systems and their real-world applications.

Author : Bayar, Yilmaz
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 699 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2020-11-06
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781799844600

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Handbook of Research on Institutional, Economic, and Social Impacts of Globalization and Liberalization by Bayar, Yilmaz Pdf

Globalization is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting the increased economic, social, cultural, and political integration of countries. There has been no pinpointed consensus on the history of globalization; however, the globalization process has gained significant speed as of the 1980s in combination with liberalization. Many countries have removed or loosened barriers over the international flows of goods, services, and production factors. In this context, both liberalization and globalization have led to considerable institutional, economic, social, cultural, and political changes in the world. The liberalization and globalization processes have affected economic units, institutions, cultures, social lives, and national and international politics. The Handbook of Research on Institutional, Economic, and Social Impacts of Globalization and Liberalization provides a comprehensive evaluation of the institutional, economic, and social impacts of globalization and liberalization processes across the world. While highlighting topics like economics, finance, business, and public administration, this book is ideally intended for government officials, policymakers, practitioners, stakeholders, researchers, and academicians interested in the international impacts of globalization and liberalization across a variety of different domains.

Author : Stephen Brock Blomberg,Gregory D. Hess,Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher : KIEP
Page : 60 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Terrorism
ISBN : UCSD:31822032302978

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The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism by Stephen Brock Blomberg,Gregory D. Hess,Athanasios Orphanides Pdf

Author : Torben Gustav Andersen,Richard A. Davis,Jens-Peter Kreiß,Thomas V. Mikosch
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 1045 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2009-04-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783540712978

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Handbook of Financial Time Series by Torben Gustav Andersen,Richard A. Davis,Jens-Peter Kreiß,Thomas V. Mikosch Pdf

The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Corporations
ISBN : OCLC:1289425014

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MENA Financial Markets by Anonim Pdf

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2011-09-20
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264123267

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OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2011 by OECD Pdf

The tenth edition of the OECD Science, Technology and Industry (STI) Scoreboard builds on 50 years of indicators development, looking at major trends in knowledge and innovation in the global economy.

Author : Mohamed A. Ramady
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 281 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2013-10-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319021775

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Political, Economic and Financial Country Risk by Mohamed A. Ramady Pdf

“Decades go by and nothing happens; then weeks go by and decades happen”. This apt saying encapsulates the dramatic convulsions taking place across the Arab world that first erupted in 2011 in Tunisia and which rapidly spread to other countries. These events have affected the lives of ordinary citizens in many more ways than had been intended when the ‘Arab Spring’ broke out, with the endgame still not very clear as demonstrated in countries like Egypt, Syria and Libya. By comparison, with some exceptions, the six countries comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council have been relatively unaffected by the general turbulence and uncertainties lapping around them. However, geopolitical shifts involving global superpower rivalries, combined with revolutionary breakthroughs in the non-conventional hydrocarbon energy sector are threatening to challenge the importance of the Arabian Gulf as the world’s leading suppliers of energy, putting their economies under fiscal stress. The author examines such challenges by: • Providing the first in-depth statistical analytical assessment of the GCC countries using monthly data over the period 2001 -2013 for the three risk categories- economic, financial and political risks- and their sub –components so as to enable policymakers enhance components with low risk , while addressing components with perceived higher risk, • Assessing FDI and capital inflows and outflows before and after the “Arab Spring” , and how to encourage FDI inflows, • Inter –Arab and GCC trade and synergies in power transmission , transportation links and establishing new hubs of centers of manufacturing excellence , • Exploring private sector-led growth models to reduce forecasted unemployment. Being complacent is not an option for the GCC. The aim of the book is that having a better understanding of each of the GCC countries’ individual risk parameters will enable the GCC meet future challenges and reduce the chances of a negative ‘Arab Spring’ occurring in the region. Mohamed Ramady is a Visiting Associate Professor at the Department of Finance and Economics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals. His main research interests are the economics of the Middle East and Saudi Arabia in particular, as well as money and banking He also held senior positions with international financial institutions in the Arabian Gulf and Europe.

Author : David E. Rapach,Mark E. Wohar,Hamid Beladi,Kwan Choi
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Page : 700 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2008-02-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781849505406

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Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty by David E. Rapach,Mark E. Wohar,Hamid Beladi,Kwan Choi Pdf

Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Author : Co?kun Özer, Ahu
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 291 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2021-06-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781799883166

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Impact of Global Issues on International Trade by Co?kun Özer, Ahu Pdf

International trade is vital in today’s world; international trade can be affected by a number of issues such as terrorism, economic crises, and pandemics such as COVID-19. It is crucial to understand the impact these global issues have on international trade and what happens to trade when global issues arise. A comprehensive guide of these issues is needed to provide background and understanding about international trade and its relationship with global issues. Global issues occasionally dominate a continuing theme of the international globalized world: global crises, war, security issues, global pandemics such as COVID-19, and trade wars. Global cooperation is required to solve such problems. Economically intellectual thinking will enable the development of guiding policies in solving these global problems. In this book, the effects of global issues on international trade will be evaluated, and policy recommendations will be made for the solution of the global issues. Impact of Global Issues on International Trade is a critical reference source that uses analytic research to analyze the effects of global economic and financial crises as well as global health crises and their impact on international trade. Pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economic crisis, and trade wars are discussed, and political suggestions are made to mitigate negative impacts. Covering a wide range of topics such as financial fragility and trade fairs, it is ideal for trade specialists, policymakers, government officials, managers, executives, economists, academicians, researchers, students, and industry professionals.