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Mortality Assumptions and Longevity Risk Implications for pension funds and annuity providers by OECD Pdf
The publication assess how pension funds, annuity providers such as life insurance companies, and the regulatory framework incorporate future improvements in mortality and life expectancy.
Modelling Longevity Dynamics for Pensions and Annuity Business by Ermanno Pitacco,Michel Denuit,Steven Haberman,Annamaria Olivieri Pdf
Mortality improvements, uncertainty in future mortality trends and the relevant impact on life annuities and pension plans constitute important topics in the field of actuarial mathematics and life insurance techniques. In particular, actuarial calculations concerning pensions, life annuities and other living benefits (provided, for example, by long-term care insurance products and whole life sickness covers) are based on survival probabilities which necessarily extend over a long time horizon. In order to avoid underestimation of the related liabilities, the insurance company (or the pension plan) must adopt an appropriate forecast of future mortality. Great attention is currently being devoted to the management of life annuity portfolios, both from a theoretical and a practical point of view, because of the growing importance of annuity benefits paid by private pension schemes. In particular, the progressive shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pension schemes has increased the interest in life annuities with a guaranteed annual amount. This book provides a comprehensive and detailed description of methods for projecting mortality, and an extensive introduction to some important issues concerning longevity risk in the area of life annuities and pension benefits. It relies on research work carried out by the authors, as well as on a wide teaching experience and in CPD (Continuing Professional Development) initiatives. The following topics are dealt with: life annuities in the framework of post-retirement income strategies; the basic mortality model; recent mortality trends that have been experienced; general features of projection models; discussion of stochastic projection models, with numerical illustrations; measuring and managing longevity risk.
The Impact of Longevity Improvements on U.S. Corporate Defined Benefit Pension Plans by Mr.John Kiff,Michael Kisser,Mauricio Soto,Mr.S. E. Oppers Pdf
This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the impact of life expectancy assumptions on the liabilities of private U.S. defined benefit (DB) pension plans. Using detailed actuarial and financial information provided by the U.S. Department of Labor, we construct a longevity variable for each pension plan and then measure the impact of varying life expectancy assumptions across plans and over time on pension plan liabilities. The results indicate that each additional year of life expectancy increases pension liabilities by about 3 to 4 percent. This effect is not only statistically highly significant but also economically: each year of additional life expectancy would increase private U.S. DB pension plan liabilities by as much as $84 billion.
Author : Patrick J. Collins,Huy D. Lam,Josh Stampfli Publisher : CFA Institute Research Foundation Page : 106 pages File Size : 54,8 Mb Release : 2015-12-28 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781934667965
Longevity Risk and Retirement Income Planning by Patrick J. Collins,Huy D. Lam,Josh Stampfli Pdf
The past 50 years have seen an abundance of research on retirement planning and longevity risk. Reviewed here is the academic side of the research and its varied viewpoints and nuances. The evolution of retirement risk models, retirement portfolio problems and solutions, and annuities are some of the many topics covered.
Life Settlements and Longevity Structures by Geoff Chaplin,Jim Aspinwall,Mark Venn Pdf
Recent turbulence in the financial markets has highlighted the need for diversified portfolios with lower correlations between the different investments. Life settlements meet this need, offering investors the prospect of high, stable returns, uncorrelated with the broader financial markets. This book provides readers of all levels of experience with essential information on the process surrounding the acquisition and management of a portfolio of life settlements; the assessment, modelling and mitigation of the associated longevity, interest rate and credit risks; and practical approaches to financing and risk management structures. It begins with the history of life insurance and looks at how the need for new financing sources has led to the growth of the life settlements market in the United States. The authors provide a detailed exploration of the mathematical formulae surrounding the generation of mortality curves, drawing a parallel between the tools deployed in the credit derivatives market and those available to model longevity risk. Structured products and securitisation techniques are introduced and explained, starting with simple vanilla products and models before illustrating some of the investment structures associated with life settlements. Capital market mechanisms available to assist the investor in limiting the risks associated with life settlement portfolios are outlined, as are opportunities to use life settlement portfolios to mitigate the risks of traditional capital markets. The last section of the book covers derivative products, either available now or under consideration, that will reduce or potentially eliminate longevity risks within life settlement portfolios. It then reviews hedging and risk management strategies and considers how to measure the effectiveness of risk mitigation.
Apocalyptic Demography? Putting Longevity Risk in Perspective by David P. Blake Pdf
'Apocalyptic demography? Putting longevity risk in perspective' which was published on 29 April 2008 has been funded by, and produced in association with, the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA), the only international accountancy body with a sole focus on business. This report and checklist allows finance directors to put longevity risk in perspective by focusing on issues such as current life expectancy, projected life expectancy and the types of longevity risk to which their organisation may be susceptible. It will also help them when discussing, with their actuary, the basis of mortality assumptions used in estimating their scheme liabilities.
New Models for Managing Longevity Risk by Olivia S. Mitchell Pdf
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Notwithstanding the terrible price the world has paid in the coronavirus pandemic, the fact remains that longevity at older ages is likely to continue to rise in the medium and longer term. This volume explores how the private and public sectors can collaborate via public-private partnerships (PPPs) to develop new mechanisms to reduce older people's risk of outliving their assets in later life. As this volume shows, PPPs typically involve shared government financing alongside private sector partner expertise, management responsibility, and accountability. In addition to offering empirical evidence on examples where this is working well, contributors provide case studies, discuss survey results, and examine a variety of different financial and insurance products to better meet the needs of the aging population. This volume will be informative to researchers, plan sponsors, students, and policymakers seeking to enhance retirement plan offerings.
National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries
Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 194 pages File Size : 50,7 Mb Release : 2011-06-27 Category : Social Science ISBN : 9780309217101
Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries by National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Committee on Population,Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries Pdf
During the last 25 years, life expectancy at age 50 in the United States has been rising, but at a slower pace than in many other high-income countries, such as Japan and Australia. This difference is particularly notable given that the United States spends more on health care than any other nation. Concerned about this divergence, the National Institute on Aging asked the National Research Council to examine evidence on its possible causes. According to Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries, the nation's history of heavy smoking is a major reason why lifespans in the United States fall short of those in many other high-income nations. Evidence suggests that current obesity levels play a substantial part as well. The book reports that lack of universal access to health care in the U.S. also has increased mortality and reduced life expectancy, though this is a less significant factor for those over age 65 because of Medicare access. For the main causes of death at older ages -- cancer and cardiovascular disease -- available indicators do not suggest that the U.S. health care system is failing to prevent deaths that would be averted elsewhere. In fact, cancer detection and survival appear to be better in the U.S. than in most other high-income nations, and survival rates following a heart attack also are favorable. Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries identifies many gaps in research. For instance, while lung cancer deaths are a reliable marker of the damage from smoking, no clear-cut marker exists for obesity, physical inactivity, social integration, or other risks considered in this book. Moreover, evaluation of these risk factors is based on observational studies, which -- unlike randomized controlled trials -- are subject to many biases.
Author : Bruce A. Carnes,S. Jay Olshansky Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company Page : 256 pages File Size : 46,8 Mb Release : 2002-07-17 Category : Science ISBN : 9780393245882
The Quest for Immortality: Science at the Frontiers of Aging by Bruce A. Carnes,S. Jay Olshansky Pdf
"This is by far the best book I've read on the science of aging."—Andrew Weil, M.D. "Life-span Truth Will Set You Free from Age-old Worries," announced the Chicago Tribune upon the first publication of this book. The New England Journal of Medicine confirmed, "For readers interested in aging and longevity, this small book clearly explains the major concepts...extremely enjoyable to read." From NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw to Scientific American to the New York Times, S. Jay Olshansky and Bruce A. Carnes have stirred up controversy and brought clarity to an issue often muddled by exaggeration and pseudoscience. Medical science has uncovered a host of answers to the problems of aging, but many of the most exciting discoveries are buried in scientific journals or overshadowed by popular quick-fix treatments. The Quest for Immortality explains the real science of aging and shows which treatments offered by today's multi-billion-dollar anti-aging industries offer real hope, and which are a waste of money and time.
Using the widely-cited Lee-Carter mortality model, we quantify aggregate mortality risk as the risk that the average annuitant lives longer than is predicted by the model, and we conclude that annuity business exposes insurance companies to substantial mortality risk. We calculate that a markup of 3.7% on an annuity premium (or else shareholders' capital equal to 3.7% of the expected present value of annuity payments) would reduce the probability of insolvency resulting from uncertain aggregate mortality trends to 5% and a markup of 5.4% would reduce the probability of insolvency to 1%. Using the same model, we find that a projection scale commonly referred to by the insurance industry underestimates aggregate mortality improvements. Annuities that are priced on that projection scale without any conservative margin appear to be substantially underpriced. Insurance companies could deal with aggregate mortality risk by transferring it to financial markets through mortality-contingent bonds, one of which has recently been offered. We calculate the returns that investors would have obtained on such bonds had they been available over a long period. Using both the Capital and the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Models, we determine the risk premium that investors would have required on such bonds. At plausible coefficients of risk aversion, annuity providers should be able to hedge aggregate mortality risk via such bonds at a very low cost.
This edition looks at pension reform during the crisis and beyond, the design of automatic adjustment mechanisms, reversals of systemic pension reforms in Central and Eastern Europe, coverage of private pension systems and guarantees indefined contribution pension systems.
Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by Tommy Bengtsson,Nico Keilman Pdf
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
