A Century Of Sovereign Ratings

Author : Norbert Gaillard
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2011-09-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461405238

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A Century of Sovereign Ratings by Norbert Gaillard Pdf

The financial difficulties experienced by Greece since 2009 serve as a reminder that countries (i.e., sovereigns) may default on their debt. Many observers considered the financial turmoil was behind us because major advanced countries had adopted stimulus packages to prevent banks from going bankrupt. However, there are rising doubts about the creditworthiness of several advanced countries that participated in the bailouts. In this uncertain context, it is particularly crucial to be knowledgeable about sovereign ratings. This book provides the necessary broad overview, which will be of interest to both economists and investors alike. Chapter 1 presents the main issues that are addressed in this book. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 provide the key notions to understand sovereign ratings. Chapter 2 presents an overview of sovereign rating activity since the first such ratings were assigned in 1918. Chapter 3 analyzes the meaning of sovereign ratings and the significance of rating scales; it also describes the refinement of credit rating policies and tools. Chapter 4 focuses on the sovereign rating process. Chapters 5 and 6 open the black box of sovereign ratings. Chapter 5 compares sovereign rating methodologies in the interwar years with those in the modern era. After examining how rating agencies have amended their methodologies since the 1990s, Chapter 6 scrutinizes rating disagreements between credit rating agencies (CRAs). Chapters 7 and 8 measure the performances of sovereign ratings by computing default rates and accuracy ratios: Chapter 7 looks at the interwar years and Chapter 8 at the modern era. The two chapters assess which CRA assigns the most accurate ratings during the respective periods. Chapters 9 and 10 compare the perception of sovereign risk by the CRAs and market participants. Chapter 9 focuses on the relation between JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global spreads and emerging countries’ sovereign ratings for the period 1993–2007. Chapter 10 compares the eurozone members’ sovereign ratings with Credit Default Swap-Implied Ratings (CDS-IRs) during the Greek debt crisis of November 2009–May 2010.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2011-09-21
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1461405246

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A Century of Sovereign Ratings by Anonim Pdf

Author : Aline Darbellay,
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 292 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2013-09-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780857939364

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Regulating Credit Rating Agencies by Aline Darbellay, Pdf

øŠAline Darbellay analyzes the obvious system relevance of credit rating agencies in depth and assesses the possible options for regulatory responses to this systemic issue. Thereby, the book is based on a fruitful comparative legal approach and formul

Author : Carmen M. Reinhart,Kenneth S. Rogoff
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 513 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2011-08-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691152646

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This Time Is Different by Carmen M. Reinhart,Kenneth S. Rogoff Pdf

An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.

Author : Dilip Ratha,Prabal De,Sanket Mohapatra
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Access to Finance
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries by Dilip Ratha,Prabal De,Sanket Mohapatra Pdf

The authors attempt to predict sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Ratings affect capital flows to developing countries through international bond, loan and equity markets. Sovereign rating also acts as a ceiling for the foreign currency rating of sub-sovereign borrowers. As of the end of 2006, however, only 86 developing countries have been rated by the rating agencies. Of these, 15 countries have not been rated since 2004. Nearly 70 developing countries have never been rated. The results indicate that the unrated countries are not always at the bottom of the rating spectrum. Several unrated poor countries appear to have a 'B' or higher rating, in a similar range as the emerging market economies with capital market access. Drawing on the literature, the analysis presents a stylized relationship between borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. The launch spread rises as the credit rating deteriorates, registering a sharp rise at the investment grade threshold. Based on these findings, a case can be made in favor of helping poor countries obtain credit ratings not only for sovereign borrowing, but for sub-sovereign entities' access to international debt and equity capital. The rating model along with the stylized relationship between spreads and ratings can be useful for securitization and other financial structures, and for leveraging official aid, for improving borrowing terms in poor countries.

Author : Ahmed Naciri
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 186 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2016-12-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317193005

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Sovereign Credit Rating by Ahmed Naciri Pdf

The current degradation of sovereign balance sheets raises very real concerns about how sovereign creditworthiness is measured by credit rating agencies. Given the disastrous economic and social effects of any downgrade, the book offers an alternative and calls for more transparency about the quantitative measures used in calibrating the rating process and how sovereign ratings are validated. It argues that oversight is required and procedures improved, including subjecting methodologies of assessing default to more standardization and monitoring. Sovereign Credit Rating explains the process of sovereign creditworthiness assessment and explores the consequences of possible inaccuracies in the process. Developing an innovative new methodology to assess ratings accuracy, it shows that the announcement of each rating action by the major credit rating agencies show alarming inconsistencies. Written by an internationally recognized author and professor, this unique book will be of interest to researchers and advanced students in corporate governance, accounting, public finance and regulation.

Author : Kimberly J. Morgan,Ann Shola Orloff
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 427 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2017-02-27
Category : POLITICAL SCIENCE
ISBN : 9781107135291

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The Many Hands of the State by Kimberly J. Morgan,Ann Shola Orloff Pdf

This book offers a sampling of cutting-edge research on the state, pointing to future directions for research and providing innovative ways of theorizing states.

Author : Michael Tomz
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2012-01-09
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400842926

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Reputation and International Cooperation by Michael Tomz Pdf

How does cooperation emerge in a condition of international anarchy? Michael Tomz sheds new light on this fundamental question through a study of international debt across three centuries. Tomz develops a reputational theory of cooperation between sovereign governments and foreign investors. He explains how governments acquire reputations in the eyes of investors, and argues that concerns about reputation sustain international lending and repayment. Tomz's theory generates novel predictions about the dynamics of cooperation: how investors treat first-time borrowers, how access to credit evolves as debtors become more seasoned, and how countries ascend and descend the reputational ladder by acting contrary to investors' expectations. Tomz systematically tests his theory and the leading alternatives across three centuries of financial history. His remarkable data, gathered from archives in nine countries, cover all sovereign borrowers. He deftly combines statistical methods, case studies, and content analysis to scrutinize theories from as many angles as possible. Tomz finds strong support for his reputational theory while challenging prevailing views about sovereign debt. His pathbreaking study shows that, across the centuries, reputations have guided lending and repayment in consistent ways. Moreover, Tomz uncovers surprisingly little evidence of punitive enforcement strategies. Creditors have not compelled borrowers to repay by threatening military retaliation, imposing trade sanctions, or colluding to deprive defaulters of future loans. He concludes by highlighting the implications of his reputational logic for areas beyond sovereign debt, further advancing our understanding of the puzzle of cooperation under anarchy.

Author : Susan K Schroeder
Publisher : Springer
Page : 196 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2015-09-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137359117

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Public Credit Rating Agencies by Susan K Schroeder Pdf

In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, there have been many criticisms weighed against private credit rating agencies. Many claim they only exacerbate financial market volatility by issuing faulty public statements, ratings warnings, and downgrades. This instability increases the uncertainty in business environments and weakens the pace of business investment. Their rating changes also prompt national governments to reduce their spending at a time when fiscal expenditures are crucial for economic recovery. Public Credit Rating Agencies argues for the creation of national public credit rating agencies, offering the first in-depth discussion of their implied role and function operating alongside private agencies. Schroeder provides an up-to-date overview of the ratings industry and the government bodies that monitor its activities. She suggests that the proper implementation of public credit rating agencies will promote the stability of lending, further development and adaptation of new technology, and increase labor productivity and the profitability of new investment in businesses. Finally, this book clarifies the inconsistencies that have surfaced between public budgeting and a rating agency's evaluation of national budgets.

Author : Jerome E. Roos
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 398 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2019-02-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691184937

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Why Not Default? by Jerome E. Roos Pdf

How creditors came to wield unprecedented power over heavily indebted countries—and the dangers this poses to democracy The European debt crisis has rekindled long-standing debates about the power of finance and the fraught relationship between capitalism and democracy in a globalized world. Why Not Default? unravels a striking puzzle at the heart of these debates—why, despite frequent crises and the immense costs of repayment, do so many heavily indebted countries continue to service their international debts? In this compelling and incisive book, Jerome Roos provides a sweeping investigation of the political economy of sovereign debt and international crisis management. He takes readers from the rise of public borrowing in the Italian city-states to the gunboat diplomacy of the imperialist era and the wave of sovereign defaults during the Great Depression. He vividly describes the debt crises of developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s and sheds new light on the recent turmoil inside the Eurozone—including the dramatic capitulation of Greece’s short-lived anti-austerity government to its European creditors in 2015. Drawing on in-depth case studies of contemporary debt crises in Mexico, Argentina, and Greece, Why Not Default? paints a disconcerting picture of the ascendancy of global finance. This important book shows how the profound transformation of the capitalist world economy over the past four decades has endowed private and official creditors with unprecedented structural power over heavily indebted borrowers, enabling them to impose painful austerity measures and enforce uninterrupted debt service during times of crisis—with devastating social consequences and far-reaching implications for democracy.

Author : N. Finch
Publisher : Springer
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2014-12-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137450661

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Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk by N. Finch Pdf

Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk provides case studies, commentary and analysis on the financial risk management and measurement in the context of frontier and developing counties from international experts covering three key areas of emerging market investments, the rating sovereign risk and managing sovereign risk.

Author : Gianluca Mattarocci
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 200 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2013-10-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780124047365

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The Independence of Credit Rating Agencies by Gianluca Mattarocci Pdf

The Independence of Credit Rating Agencies focuses on the institutional and regulatory dynamics of these agencies, asking whether their business models give them enough independence to make viable judgments without risking their own profitability. Few have closely examined the analytical methods of credit rating agencies, even though their decisions can move markets, open or close the doors to capital, and bring down governments. The 2008 financial crisis highlighted their importance and their shortcomings, especially when they misjudged the structured financial products that precipitated the collapse of Bear Stearns and other companies. This book examines the roles played by rating agencies during the financial crisis, illuminating the differences between U.S. and European rating markets, and also considers subjects such as the history of rating agencies and the roles played by smaller agencies to present a well-rounded portrait. Reports on one of the key causes of the 2008 financial crisis: agencies that failed to understand how to analyze financial products Describes inherent business model and pricing conflicts that compromise the independence of credit rating agencies Reveals how rating agencies large and small, regulatory bodies, and vested interests interact in setting fees and policies

Author : Daniel Cash
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 122 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2023-09-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000961751

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A Modern Credit Rating Agency by Daniel Cash Pdf

This book aims to present a picture of one of the world’s leading credit rating agencies. Credited as being the first credit rating agency, Moody’s stands as the epitome of the rating sector and all that it effects. However, outside of internal and non-public histories compiled within the rating agency itself, the story of Moody’s has never been told, until now. However, this is not a historical book. Rather, this book paints a picture of Moody’s on a wider canvas that introduces the concept of rating to you, taking into account the origins of the sector, the competitive battles that formed the modern-day oligopoly, and the characters that have each taken their turn on sculpting the industry that, today, is critical to the modern economy. The book is a story of personable people who provided the market with what it needed, but it is more than that. It is a story of conflict, impact, strategy, and most of all the relationship between big business and modern society. Standing as the gatekeeper to the capital markets that form the core of modern society, Moody’s represents the very best of what the marketplace can produce, but also the very worst. This story takes in economic crises in the antebellum US, the Panics of the early 1900s, the Wall Street Crash and the Great Depression and, of course, the Global Financial Crisis. It does this because, at the heart of each one was a member of the rating industry or the reporting industry that preceded it. Associated with almost any financial scandal you may care to remember the credit rating agencies, in their often-uncomfortable role as gatekeepers, have their fingerprints on most financial scandals and calamities. This book tells the story of the industry’s founding member.

Author : Mohamed Sami Ben Ali,Sami Ben Mim
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 238 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2023-06-19
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789819924936

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Governance in the Developing World by Mohamed Sami Ben Ali,Sami Ben Mim Pdf

This book assesses the extent to which good governance may contribute to enhancing economic performance and social welfare in developing countries, globally. Governance has been pointed out as one of the major weaknesses of developing economies and may largely be attributed to weak governance practices at both the macro- and micro-level. This book highlights the channels through which governance may act on various economic sectors and different key economic variables. In doing so, it enables policymakers to identify and implement policies and procedures to promote good governance. This book provides a transnational perspective on good governance in considering developing countries in Asia, Africa and beyond, presenting respective case studies in single country settings, enabling a comparative perspective between and across all chapters. Covering topics that include the intersection between governance and gender, inequality, poverty, education and health, the book provides diverse theoretical and empirical evidence on important issues facing policymakers, investors and other stakeholders and is relevant to graduate students and researchers interest in policy issues in the developing world.

Author : Norbert Gaillard
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 266 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2020-07-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030457884

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Country Risk by Norbert Gaillard Pdf

Country risk has been a key notion for economists, financiers, and investors. Norbert Gaillard defines this notion as “any macroeconomic, microeconomic, financial, social, political, institutional, judiciary, climatic, technological, or sanitary risk that affects (or could affect) an investor in a foreign country. Damages may materialize in several ways: financial losses; threat to the safety of the investing company’s employees, clients, or consumers; reputational damage; or loss of a market or supply source.” Chapter 1 introduces the key concepts. Chapter 2 investigates how country risk has evolved and manifested since the advent of the Pax Britannica in 1816. It describes the international political and economic environment and identifies the main obstacles to foreign investment. Chapter 3 documents the numerous forms that country risk may take and provides illustrations of them. Seven broad components of country risk are scrutinized in turn: international political risks; domestic political and institutional risks; jurisdiction risks; macroeconomic risks; microeconomic risks; sanitary, health, industrial, and environmental risks; and natural and climate risks. Chapter 4 focuses on sovereign risk. It presents the rating methodologies used by four raters; next, it measures and compares their performance (i.e., their ability to forecast sovereign defaults). Chapter 5 studies the risks likely to affect exporters, importers, foreign creditors of corporate entities, foreign shareholders, and foreign direct investors. It presents the rating methodologies used by seven raters and measures their track records in terms of anticipating eight types of shocks that reflect the main components of country risk analyzed in Chapter 3. This book will be most relevant to graduate students in economics as well as professional economists and international investors.