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A Mathematical Theory of Hints by Juerg Kohlas,Paul-Andre Monney Pdf
An approach to the modeling of and the reasoning under uncertainty. The book develops the Dempster-Shafer Theory with regard to the reliability of reasoning with uncertain arguments. Of particular interest here is the development of a new synthesis and the integration of logic and probability theory. The reader benefits from a new approach to uncertainty modeling which extends classical probability theory.
The use of the Black-Scholes model and formula is pervasive in financial markets. There are very few undergraduate textbooks available on the subject and, until now, almost none written by mathematicians. Based on a course given by the author, the goal of
A Mathematical Theory of Arguments for Statistical Evidence by Paul-Andre Monney Pdf
The subject of this book is the reasoning under uncertainty based on sta tistical evidence, where the word reasoning is taken to mean searching for arguments in favor or against particular hypotheses of interest. The kind of reasoning we are using is composed of two aspects. The first one is inspired from classical reasoning in formal logic, where deductions are made from a knowledge base of observed facts and formulas representing the domain spe cific knowledge. In this book, the facts are the statistical observations and the general knowledge is represented by an instance of a special kind of sta tistical models called functional models. The second aspect deals with the uncertainty under which the formal reasoning takes place. For this aspect, the theory of hints [27] is the appropriate tool. Basically, we assume that some uncertain perturbation takes a specific value and then logically eval uate the consequences of this assumption. The original uncertainty about the perturbation is then transferred to the consequences of the assumption. This kind of reasoning is called assumption-based reasoning. Before going into more details about the content of this book, it might be interesting to look briefly at the roots and origins of assumption-based reasoning in the statistical context. In 1930, R. A. Fisher [17] defined the notion of fiducial distribution as the result of a new form of argument, as opposed to the result of the older Bayesian argument.
An Adventurer's Guide to Number Theory by Richard Friedberg Pdf
This witty introduction to number theory deals with the properties of numbers and numbers as abstract concepts. Topics include primes, divisibility, quadratic forms, and related theorems.
Formal Theories of Information by Giovanni Sommaruga Pdf
This book presents the scientific outcome of a joint effort of the computer science departments of the universities of Berne, Fribourg and Neuchâtel. Within an initiative devoted to "Information and Knowledge", these research groups collaborated over several years on issues of logic, probability, inference, and deduction. The goal of this volume is to examine whether there is any common ground between the different approaches to the concept of information. The structure of this book could be represented by a circular model, with an innermost syntactical circle, comprising statistical and algorithmic approaches; a second, larger circle, the semantical one, in which "meaning" enters the stage; and finally an outermost circle, the pragmatic one, casting light on real-life logical reasoning. These articles are complemented by two philosophical contributions exploring the wide conceptual field as well as taking stock of the articles on the various formal theories of information.
Classic Works of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions by Ronald R. Yager,Liping Liu Pdf
This is a collection of classic research papers on the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. The book is the authoritative reference in the field of evidential reasoning and an important archival reference in a wide range of areas including uncertainty reasoning in artificial intelligence and decision making in economics, engineering, and management. The book includes a foreword reflecting the development of the theory in the last forty years.
Knots are familiar objects. Yet the mathematical theory of knots quickly leads to deep results in topology and geometry. This work offers an introduction to this theory, starting with our understanding of knots. It presents the applications of knot theory to modern chemistry, biology and physics.
Modeling, Estimation and Control of Systems with Uncertainty by G.B. DiMasi,A. Gombani,A.B. Kurzhanski Pdf
This volume contains the papers that have been presented at the Conference on Modeling and Control of Uncertain Systems held in Sopron, Hungary on September 3-7, 1990, organised within the framework of the activities of the System and Decision Sciences Program of IIASA - the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The importance of the subject has drawn the attention of researchers all over the world since several years. In fact, in most actual applications the knowledge about the system under investigation presents aspects of uncertainty due to measurement errors or poor understanding of the rele vant underlying mechanisms. For this reason models that take into account these intrinsic uncertainties have been used and techniques for the analysis of their behavior as well as for their estimation and control have been devel oped. The main ways to deal with uncertainty consist in its description by stochastic processes or in terms of set-valued dynamics and this volume col lects relevant contributions in both directions. However, in order to avoid undesirable distinctions between these approaches, but on the contrary to stress the unity of ideas, we decided to organize the papers according to the alphabetical order of their authors. We should like to take this opportunity to thank IIASA for supporting the Conference and the Hungarian National Member Organization for the kind hospitality in Sopron. Finally we would like to express our gratitude to Ms. Donna Huchthausen for her valuable secretarial assistance. Vienna, February 20, 1991 GIOVANNI B.
A Beginner's Further Guide to Mathematical Logic by Raymond Smullyan Pdf
This is the final book written by the late great puzzle master and logician, Dr. Raymond Smullyan. This book is a sequel to my Beginner's Guide to Mathematical Logic. The previous volume deals with elements of propositional and first-order logic, contains a bit on formal systems and recursion, and concludes with chapters on Gödel's famous incompleteness theorem, along with related results. The present volume begins with a bit more on propositional and first-order logic, followed by what I would call a "fein" chapter, which simultaneously generalizes some results from recursion theory, first-order arithmetic systems, and what I dub a "decision machine." Then come five chapters on formal systems, recursion theory and metamathematical applications in a general setting. The concluding five chapters are on the beautiful subject of combinatory logic, which is not only intriguing in its own right, but has important applications to computer science. Argonne National Laboratory is especially involved in these applications, and I am proud to say that its members have found use for some of my results in combinatory logic. This book does not cover such important subjects as set theory, model theory, proof theory, and modern developments in recursion theory, but the reader, after studying this volume, will be amply prepared for the study of these more advanced topics. Request Inspection Copy
The Complete Idiot's Guide to Game Theory by Edward C. Rosenthal Ph.D. Pdf
Gain some insight into the game of life... Game Theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It is based on the idea that everyone acts competitively and in his own best interest. With the help of mathematical models, it is possible to anticipate the actions of others in nearly all life's enterprises. This book includes down-to-earth examples and solutions, as well as charts and illustrations designed to help teach the concept. In The Complete Idiot's Guide® to Game Theory, Dr. Edward C. Rosenthal makes it easy to understand game theory with insights into: • The history of the discipline made popular by John Nash, the mathematician dramatized in the film A Beautiful Mind • The role of social behavior and psychology in this amazing discipline • How important game theory has become in our society and why
A Mathematical Theory of Evidence by Glenn Shafer Pdf
Both in science and in practical affairs we reason by combining facts only inconclusively supported by evidence. Building on an abstract understanding of this process of combination, this book constructs a new theory of epistemic probability. The theory draws on the work of A. P. Dempster but diverges from Depster's viewpoint by identifying his "lower probabilities" as epistemic probabilities and taking his rule for combining "upper and lower probabilities" as fundamental. The book opens with a critique of the well-known Bayesian theory of epistemic probability. It then proceeds to develop an alternative to the additive set functions and the rule of conditioning of the Bayesian theory: set functions that need only be what Choquet called "monotone of order of infinity." and Dempster's rule for combining such set functions. This rule, together with the idea of "weights of evidence," leads to both an extensive new theory and a better understanding of the Bayesian theory. The book concludes with a brief treatment of statistical inference and a discussion of the limitations of epistemic probability. Appendices contain mathematical proofs, which are relatively elementary and seldom depend on mathematics more advanced that the binomial theorem.
