A Structural Ricardian Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts And Adaptations In African Agriculture

Author : Sungno Niggol Seo
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Agriculture
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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A Structural Ricardian Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations in African Agriculture by Sungno Niggol Seo Pdf

Abstract: This paper develops a Structural Ricardian model to measure climate change impacts that explicitly models the choice of farm type in African agriculture. This two stage model first estimates the type of farm chosen and then the conditional incomes of each farm type after removing selection biases. The results indicate that increases in temperature encourage farmers to adopt mixed farming and avoid specialized farms such as crop-only or livestock-only farms. Increases in precipitation encourage farmers to shift from irrigated to rainfed crops. As temperatures increase, farm incomes from crop-only farms or livestock-only farms fall whereas incomes from mixed farms increase. With precipitation increases, farm incomes from irrigated farms fall whereas incomes from rainfed farms increase. Naturally, the Structural Ricardian model predicts much smaller impacts than a model that holds farm type fixed. With a hot dry climate scenario, the Structural Ricardian model predicts that farm income will fall 50 percent but the fixed farm type model predicts farm incomes will fall 75 percent.

Author : S. Niggol Seo,Robert Mendelsohn
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:931669040

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A Structural Ricardian Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations in African Agriculture by S. Niggol Seo,Robert Mendelsohn Pdf

This paper develops a Structural Ricardian model to measure climate change impacts that explicitly models the choice of farm type in African agriculture. This two stage model first estimates the type of farm chosen and then the conditional incomes of each farm type after removing selection biases. The results indicate that increases in temperature encourage farmers to adopt mixed farming and avoid specialized farms such as crop-only or livestock-only farms. Increases in precipitation encourage farmers to shift from irrigated to rainfed crops. As temperatures increase, farm incomes from crop-only farms or livestock-only farms fall whereas incomes from mixed farms increase. With precipitation increases, farm incomes from irrigated farms fall whereas incomes from rainfed farms increase. Naturally, the Structural Ricardian model predicts much smaller impacts than a model that holds farm type fixed. With a hot dry climate scenario, the Structural Ricardian model predicts that farm income will fall 50 percent but the fixed farm type model predicts farm incomes will fall 75 percent.

Author : S. Niggol Seo
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1290702805

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A Structural Ricardian Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations in African Agriculture by S. Niggol Seo Pdf

This paper develops a Structural Ricardian model to measure climate change impacts that explicitly models the choice of farm type in African agriculture. This two stage model first estimates the type of farm chosen and then the conditional incomes of each farm type after removing selection biases. The results indicate that increases in temperature encourage farmers to adopt mixed farming and avoid specialized farms such as crop-only or livestock-only farms. Increases in precipitation encourage farmers to shift from irrigated to rainfed crops. As temperatures increase, farm incomes from crop-only farms or livestock-only farms fall whereas incomes from mixed farms increase. With precipitation increases, farm incomes from irrigated farms fall whereas incomes from rainfed farms increase. Naturally, the Structural Ricardian model predicts much smaller impacts than a model that holds farm type fixed. With a hot dry climate scenario, the Structural Ricardian model predicts that farm income will fall 50 percent but the fixed farm type model predicts farm incomes will fall 75 percent.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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A ricardian Analysis of the distribution of climate change impacts on agriculture across agro-ecological zones in africa by Anonim Pdf

Author : Pradeep Kurukulasuriya
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 62 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland by Pradeep Kurukulasuriya Pdf

This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important.

Author : Ariel Dinar,Rashid Hassan,Robert Mendelsohn,James Benhin,et al
Publisher : Earthscan
Page : 223 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781849770767

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Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa by Ariel Dinar,Rashid Hassan,Robert Mendelsohn,James Benhin,et al Pdf

'This is a well researched, thorough and impressive work on climate change and agriculture in Africa. I recommend it to students, researchers and practitioners working on climate change issues' Jabavu Clifford Nkomo, senior programme specialist, IDRC This landmark book encompasses a comprehensive assessment of the potential economic impacts of future climate change, and the value of adaptation measures in Africa for different zones, regions, countries and farm types. Researchers developed and applied multiple analytical procedures to assess quantitatively how climate affects current agricultural systems in Africa, enabling them to predict how these systems may be affected in the future by climate change under various global warming scenarios, and suggesting what role adaptation could play. The study is the first to combine spatially referenced household survey data with climatic data at both national and international levels. This book provides vital knowledge about the impacts of climate change on Africa, serving as a guide to policy intervention strategies and investment in adaptation measures. It makes a major contribution to the analysis of climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies, especially in the highly vulnerable farming communities in the developing world. Published with CEEPA and supported by the World Bank.

Author : David Maddison
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 25 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Climate change research
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The Impact of Climate Change on African Agriculture by David Maddison Pdf

Abstract: This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers' own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change.

Author : MUYEYE. CHAMBWERA
Publisher : IIED
Page : 39 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2024-05-27
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Climate change adaptation in developing countries: issues and perspectives for economic analysis by MUYEYE. CHAMBWERA Pdf

Author : Sungno Niggol Seo,Robert O. Mendelsohn
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Agriculture
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa by Sungno Niggol Seo,Robert O. Mendelsohn Pdf

This paper develops the structural Ricardian method, a new approach to modeling agricultural performance using cross-sectional evidence, and uses the method to study animal husbandry in Africa. The model is intended to estimate the structure beneath Ricardian results in order to understand how farmers change their behavior in response to climate. A survey of over 5,000 livestock farmers in 10 countries reveals that the selection of species, the net income per animal, and the number of animals are all highly dependent on climate. As climate warms, net income across all animals will fall, especially across beef cattle. The fall in net income causes African farmers to reduce the number of animals on their farms. The fall in relative revenues also causes them to shift away from beef cattle and toward sheep and goats. All farmers will lose income but the most vulnerable farms are large African farms that currently specialize in beef cattle. Small livestock and large livestock farms respond to climates differently. Small farms are diversified, relying on dairy cattle, goats, sheep, and chickens. Large farms specialize in dairy and beef cattle. Estimating a separate multinomial logit selection model for small and large farms reveals that the two types of farm choose species differently and specifically have different climate response functions. The regressions of the number of animals also reveal that large farms are more responsive to climate. The results indicate that warming will be harmful to commercial livestock owners, especially cattle owners. Owners of commercial livestock farms have few alternatives either in crops or other animal species. In contrast, small livestock farms are better able to adapt to warming or precipitation increases by switching to heat tolerant animals or crops. Livestock operations will be a safety valve for small farmers if warming or drought causes their crops to fail.

Author : Kenneth M. Strzepek,Alyssa McCluskey
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Water Resources and Agriculture in Africa by Kenneth M. Strzepek,Alyssa McCluskey Pdf

This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5 degree latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCM-based climate change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa.

Author : Jane Kabubo-Mariara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Agriculture
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Kenyan Crop Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach by Jane Kabubo-Mariara Pdf

Abstract: This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.

Author : Nicholas Oguge,Desalegn Ayal,Lydia Adeleke,Izael da Silva
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 2822 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2021-05-20
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783030451066

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African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation by Nicholas Oguge,Desalegn Ayal,Lydia Adeleke,Izael da Silva Pdf

This open access book discusses current thinking and presents the main issues and challenges associated with climate change in Africa. It introduces evidences from studies and projects which show how climate change adaptation is being - and may continue to be successfully implemented in African countries. Thanks to its scope and wide range of themes surrounding climate change, the ambition is that this book will be a lead publication on the topic, which may be regularly updated and hence capture further works. Climate change is a major global challenge. However, some geographical regions are more severly affected than others. One of these regions is the African continent. Due to a combination of unfavourable socio-economic and meteorological conditions, African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The recently released IPCC special report "Global Warming of 1.5o C" outlines the fact that keeping global warming by the level of 1.5o C is possible, but also suggested that an increase by 2o C could lead to crises with crops (agriculture fed by rain could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020) and livestock production, could damage water supplies and pose an additonal threat to coastal areas. The 5th Assessment Report produced by IPCC predicts that wheat may disappear from Africa by 2080, and that maize— a staple—will fall significantly in southern Africa. Also, arid and semi-arid lands are likely to increase by up to 8%, with severe ramifications for livelihoods, poverty eradication and meeting the SDGs. Pursuing appropriate adaptation strategies is thus vital, in order to address the current and future challenges posed by a changing climate. It is against this background that the "African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation" is being published. It contains papers prepared by scholars, representatives from social movements, practitioners and members of governmental agencies, undertaking research and/or executing climate change projects in Africa, and working with communities across the African continent. Encompassing over 100 contribtions from across Africa, it is the most comprehensive publication on climate change adaptation in Africa ever produced.

Author : Robert O. Mendelsohn,Ariel Dinar
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 255 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2009-01-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9781849802239

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Climate Change and Agriculture by Robert O. Mendelsohn,Ariel Dinar Pdf

The specific focus of this seminal work is on the economic impact of climate change on agriculture world wide, and how faced with the resultant environmental alterations, agriculture might adapt under varied and varying conditions. Enhanced with a detailed and comprehensive index, Climate Change and Agriculture is highly recommended for academic library environmental studies and economic studies reference collections and supplemental reading lists. The Midwest Book Review Despite its great importance, there are surprisingly few economic studies of the impact of climate on agriculture and how agriculture can adapt under a variety of conditions. This book examines 22 countries across four continents, including both developed and developing economies. It provides both a good analytical basis for additional work and solid results for policy debate concerning income distributional effects such as abatement, adaptation, and equity. Agriculture and grazing are a central sector in the livelihood of many people, particularly in developing countries. This book uses the Ricardian method to examine the impact of climate change on agriculture. It also quantifies how farmers adapt to climate. The findings suggest that agriculture in developing countries is more sensitive to climate than agriculture in developed countries. Rain-fed cropland is generally more sensitive to warming than irrigated cropland and cropland is more sensitive than livestock. The adaptation to climate change results reveal that farmers make many adjustments including switching crops and livestock species, adopting irrigation, and moving between livestock and crops. The results also reveal that impacts and adaptations vary a great deal across landscapes, suggesting that adaptation policies must be location specific. Finally, the book suggests a research agenda for the future. Economists in academia and the public sector, policy analysts and development agencies will find this broad study illuminating.

Author : David Maddison
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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The Perception of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa by David Maddison Pdf

Author : Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations
Publisher : Food & Agriculture Org.
Page : 64 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2018-06-14
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789251097069

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Climafrica by Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations Pdf

To better understand the current dynamics affecting food production, this publication presents a model for examining the impact of climate change on agricultural production systems, including spatial datasets, tabular information and metadata.