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Author : Bernard E. Harcourt Publisher : University of Chicago Press Page : 345 pages File Size : 49,8 Mb Release : 2008-09-15 Category : Law ISBN : 9780226315997
From random security checks at airports to the use of risk assessment in sentencing, actuarial methods are being used more than ever to determine whom law enforcement officials target and punish. And with the exception of racial profiling on our highways and streets, most people favor these methods because they believe they’re a more cost-effective way to fight crime. In Against Prediction, Bernard E. Harcourt challenges this growing reliance on actuarial methods. These prediction tools, he demonstrates, may in fact increase the overall amount of crime in society, depending on the relative responsiveness of the profiled populations to heightened security. They may also aggravate the difficulties that minorities already have obtaining work, education, and a better quality of life—thus perpetuating the pattern of criminal behavior. Ultimately, Harcourt shows how the perceived success of actuarial methods has begun to distort our very conception of just punishment and to obscure alternate visions of social order. In place of the actuarial, he proposes instead a turn to randomization in punishment and policing. The presumption, Harcourt concludes, should be against prediction.
Reflections on Power Prediction Modeling of Conventional High-Speed Craft by Dejan Radojčić Pdf
This SpringerBrief focuses on modeling and power evaluation of high-speed craft. The various power prediction methods, a principal design objective for high-speed craft of displacement, semi-displacement, and planing type, are addressed. At the core of the power prediction methods are mathematical models for resistance and propulsion efficiency. The models are based on the experimental data of various high-speed hull and propeller series. The regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) methods are used as an extraction tool for this kind of mathematical models. A variety of mathematical models of this type are discussed in the book. Once these mathematical models have been developed and validated, they can be readily programmed into software tools, thereby enabling the parametric analyses required for the optimization of a high-speed craft design. This book provides the foundational reference for these software tools, and their use in the design of high-speed craft. High-speed craft are very different from conventional ships. Current professional literature leaves a gap in the documentation of best design practices for high-speed craft. This book is aimed at naval architects who design and develop various types of high-speed vessels.
Remarks on the Predictions Concerning the Destruction of Jerusalem and the Second Coming of Our Lord, in Matt.xxiv by William Sherlock (Archdeacon of Kildare.) Pdf
Charts for Prediction and Chance by Mario Markus Pdf
This innovative book brings together two disciplines — science and art — and enables readers to produce their own computer-generated displays. 44 colour plates and 200 black and white pictures showcase the diagrams that can easily be reproduced using the accompanying CD-ROM. It is possible to create diagrams that indicate predictability or unpredictability of physical, chemical, ecological, mathematical or economic systems. Grey levels and colours indicate the stability of a predictable system, or the extent of unpredictability. In addition, diagrams can be drawn purely for their aesthetic value. Directed both at scientists and laymen, technicians and artists, this combination of book and CD-ROM is the first of its kind. Contents:The Useful and the BeautifulThe “Object Trouvé” in MathematicsThe Mondrian ExperimentsAn Anecdotal Report on ChaosA Case Submitted to CourtCalculations of the “Charts for Prediction and Chance” (λ-Diagrams)The Significance of Discrete MapsMaps with Scientific ApplicationsMaps of Generic SignificanceAre the λ-Diagrams Fractals?What Can We Learn from λ-Diagrams?Appendices:Informal GlossaryAbbreviationsInstructions for the CD-ROM (λ-Diagrams on Your PC) Readership: Laymen, scientists, computer technicians and computer artists. Suitable for use as an undergraduate textbook in computational science or in computer art. Keywords:Computer Art;Chaos;Do-It-Yourself;Stability and InstabilityKey Features:Includes a CD-ROM that contains easy-to-understand instructions for drawing diagrams, both for the scientist and for the artistContains hundreds of examples of visually stunning diagrams, both in black and white and in colorReviews:“… if you enjoy computer-generated art and mathematics then this would be an interesting book.”IEEE Electrical Insulation Magazine
Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics by Wenceslao J. Gonzalez Pdf
This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience.
Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction by Amanda Guillán Pdf
This monograph analyzes Nicholas Rescher’s system of pragmatic idealism. It also looks at his approach to prediction in science. Coverage highlights a prominent contribution to a central topic in the philosophy and methodology of science. The author offers a full characterization of Rescher’s system of philosophy. She presents readers with a comprehensive philosophico-methodological analysis of this important work. Her research takes into account different thematic realms: semantic, logical, epistemological, methodological, ontological, axiological, and ethical. The book features three, thematic-parts: I) General Coordinates, Semantic Features and Logical Components of Scientific Prediction; II) Predictive Knowledge and Predictive Processes in Rescher’s Methodological Pragmatism; and III) From Reality to Values: Ontological Features, Axiological Elements, and Ethical Aspects of Scientific Prediction. This insightful analysis offers a critical reconstruction of Rescher’s philosophy. The system he created is often characterized as pragmatic idealism that is open to some realist elements. He is a prominent representative of contemporary pragmatism who has made a great deal of contributions to the study of this topic. This area is crucial for science and it has been little considered in the philosophy of science.
Critical Review Of Van, A: Earthquake Prediction From Seismic Electrical Signals by James Lighthill Pdf
The acronym VAN refers to Drs Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos, members of a group based in the University of Athens and led by Professor Varotsos (head of the Physics Department) which for over a decade has sought to use electric-field measurements between electrodes buried in the earth to predict earthquakes in Greece over periods of order one month or less. But is such “short-term” prediction achievable by the VAN approach (or by any other)? This book is an objective collection of the arguments for — and the counterarguments against — that approach, intended to help scientific readers arrive at their own answers to this important question, as well as to others (including that of VAN's “export” potential).
Protein Function Prediction for Omics Era by Daisuke Kihara Pdf
Gene function annotation has been a central question in molecular biology. The importance of computational function prediction is increasing because more and more large scale biological data, including genome sequences, protein structures, protein-protein interaction data, microarray expression data, and mass spectrometry data, are awaiting biological interpretation. Traditionally when a genome is sequenced, function annotation of genes is done by homology search methods, such as BLAST or FASTA. However, since these methods are developed before the genomics era, conventional use of them is not necessarily most suitable for analyzing a large scale data. Therefore we observe emerging development of computational gene function prediction methods, which are targeted to analyze large scale data, and also those which use such omics data as additional source of function prediction. In this book, we overview this emerging exciting field. The authors have been selected from 1) those who develop novel purely computational methods 2) those who develop function prediction methods which use omics data 3) those who maintain and update data base of function annotation of particular model organisms (E. coli), which are frequently referred
Cultures of Prediction by Ann Johnson,Johannes Lenhard Pdf
A probing examination of the dynamic history of predictive methods and values in science and engineering that helps us better understand today’s cultures of prediction. The ability to make reliable predictions based on robust and replicable methods is a defining feature of the scientific endeavor, allowing engineers to determine whether a building will stand up or where a cannonball will strike. Cultures of Prediction, which bridges history and philosophy, uncovers the dynamic history of prediction in science and engineering over four centuries. Ann Johnson and Johannes Lenhard identify four different cultures, or modes, of prediction in the history of science and engineering: rational, empirical, iterative-numerical, and exploratory-iterative. They show how all four develop together and interact with one another while emphasizing that mathematization is not a single unitary process but one that has taken many forms. The story is not one of the triumph of abstract mathematics or technology but of how different modes of prediction, complementary concepts of mathematization, and technology coevolved, building what the authors call “cultures of prediction.” The first part of the book examines prediction from early modernity up to the computer age. The second part probes computer-related cultures of prediction, which focus on making things and testing their performance, often in computer simulations. This new orientation challenges basic tenets of the philosophy of science, in which scientific theories and models are predominantly seen as explanatory rather than predictive. It also influences the types of research projects that scientists and engineers undertake, as well as which ones receive support from funding agencies.
Foundations of Complex Systems by Gregoire Nicolis,Catherine Nicolis Pdf
This book provides a self-contained presentation of the physical and mathematical laws governing complex systems. Complex systems arising in natural, engineering, environmental, life and social sciences are approached from a unifying point of view using an array of methodologies such as microscopic and macroscopic level formulations, deterministic and probabilistic tools, modeling and simulation. The book can be used as a textbook by graduate students, researchers and teachers in science, as well as non-experts who wish to have an overview of one of the most open, markedly interdisciplinary and fast-growing branches of present-day science. Contents:The Phenomenology of Complex Systems:Complexity, a New ParadigmSignatures of ComplexityOnset of ComplexityFour Case StudiesSumming UpDeterministic View:Dynamical Systems, Phase Space, StabilityLevels of DescriptionNormal FormsThe Limit of UniversalityDeterministic ChaosEmergenceCoupling-Induced ComplexityModeling Complexity Beyond Physical ScienceProbabilistic Description:Need for a Probabilistic ApproachProbability Distributions and Their Evolution LawsThe Retrieval of UniversalityComplexity in the Probabilistic DescriptionEmergence RevisitedTransitions Between StatesSimulating Complex SystemsDisorder-Generated ComplexityComplexity, Entropy and Information:Information EntropyDynamical EntropiesInformation Entropy ProductionLarge Deviations, Fluctuation Theorems and the Probabilistic Properties of Time SequencesAlgorithmic Complexity and ComputationDynamical Systems as Information Sources: Scaling Rules and SelectionFurther Information MeasuresSumming UpPrediction:Communicating with a Complex SystemClassical Approaches and Their LimitationsNonlinear Data AnalysisThe Monitoring of Complex FieldsThe Predictability HorizonRecurrenceExtreme EventsSelected Topics:The Arrow of TimeNanosystemsAtmospheric DynamicsClimate DynamicsNetworksPerspectives on Biological ComplexityEquilibrium Versus Nonequilibrium in Complexity and Self-OrganizationEpistemological Insights from Complex SystemsOutlook. The Future of Complexity Readership: Graduate students, researchers, academics and professionals interested in nonlinear science. Keywords:Nonlinear Dynamics;Chaos;Self-Organization;Emergence;Probability and Information;Predictability;Non-Equilibrium Systems;Irreversibility;Systems BiologyKey Features:A unique vision highlighting complexity as part of fundamental science and a clear, unifying presentation of the concepts and tools needed to analyze complex systemsIllustrates the interdisciplinary dimension of complexity research through representative examples pertaining to problems of current concernNew edition, including a large collection of exercises and problems with hints for solution and an updated survey of the literatureReviews: “The book can be used as a textbook by graduate students, researchers and teachers in science, as well as non-experts who wish to have an overview of the field.” Zentralblatt MATH
Prediction in Second Language Processing and Learning by Edith Kaan,Theres Grüter Pdf
There is ample evidence that language users, including second-language (L2) users, can predict upcoming information during listening and reading. Yet it is still unclear when, how, and why language users engage in prediction, and what the relation is between prediction and learning. This volume presents a collection of current research, insights, and directions regarding the role of prediction in L2 processing and learning. The contributions in this volume specifically address how different (L1-based) theoretical models of prediction apply to or may be expanded to account for L2 processing, report new insights on factors (linguistic, cognitive, social) that modulate L2 users’ engagement in prediction, and discuss the functions that prediction may or may not serve in L2 processing and learning. Taken together, this volume illustrates various fruitful approaches to investigating and accounting for differences in predictive processing within and across individuals, as well as across populations.
