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Alternative Futures and Army Force Planning. Implications for the Future Force Era by Anonim Pdf
Predicting the friture is almost always fraught with uncertainty. How- ever, Army force developers working to plan a force capable of meet- ing the challenges of the 2025 timeframe (the Future Force era) face more uncertainty than most. Today's world, especially in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the Iraq war, exhibits a level of dynamism and change not seen during the comparatively static decades of the Cold War-times when the drivers of U.S. secu- rity policy were relatively fixed and their demands upon the Army easily identified. This study has attempted to help the Army deal with the task of long-term force planning by using the tool of alternative futures analysis. Rather than positing a single point estimate of the 2025 fli- ture and trying to defend it, we chose to help the Army bound the future by laying out a representative spectrum of different "future worlds" in the hope that they would illustrate the complete universe of future missions.
Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization by Anonim Pdf
As it carries out its long-term force structure and modernization plans, one useful approach for the Army to take is based on the analysis of "alternative futures." Having developed several plausible alternative futures (looking out roughly 25 years), the authors describe each one's possible implications for the Army's likely mission and the forces required for those missions, discussing the impact on Army modernization plans. The futures range from a benign, relatively peaceful world all the way to a dangerous, chaotic world containing many "failed states." The research indicated that the creation of medium forces was a good long-range strategy for the Army, since those forces appeared to be relevant in many of the possible futures. Traditional heavy forces were found to be useful in a limited number of the possible futures and should therefore receive relatively fewer modernization resources. Army aviation appeared to be applicable to most of the futures, but there could be a need to shift the balance from attack-type aviation to transport aircraft, depending on which future appeared more likely. In all cases, increased C4ISR seemed to be a very important capability. Even within that category, however, there might be a need to focus C4ISR resources in different ways. For example, in some futures, there would be a need to stress unconventional operations in urban areas rather than systems more applicable to locating conventional enemy forces in open terrain.
Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization by Anonim Pdf
As it carries out its long-term force structure and modernization plans, one useful approach for the Army to take is based on the analysis of "alternative futures." Having developed several plausible alternative futures (looking out roughly 25 years), the authors describe each one's possible implications for the Army's likely mission and the forces required for those missions, discussing the impact on Army modernization plans. The futures range from a benign, relatively peaceful world all the way to a dangerous, chaotic world containing many "failed states." The research indicated that the creation of medium forces was a good long-range strategy for the Army, since those forces appeared to be relevant in many of the possible futures. Traditional heavy forces were found to be useful in a limited number of the possible futures and should therefore receive relatively fewer modernization resources. Army aviation appeared to be applicable to most of the futures, but there could be a need to shift the balance from attack-type aviation to transport aircraft, depending on which future appeared more likely. In all cases, increased C4ISR seemed to be a very important capability. Even within that category, however, there might be a need to focus C4ISR resources in different ways. For example, in some futures, there would be a need to stress unconventional operations in urban areas rather than systems more applicable to locating conventional enemy forces in open terrain.
A year ago the Chief of Staff of the Army initiated the Army After Next Project (AANP) as a means of stimulating constructive thinking about the Army's future throughout the service. AANP has quickly developed into a primary vehicle for long-range planning. Under the leadership of the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), the AANP has conducted an ambitious program of studies, symposia and workshops, culminating in a Winter War Game and Senior Seminar held at Carlisle, January 27-February 6, 1997. In addition to supporting TRADOC's AANP through the world class simulation and gaming facilities of the Center for Strategic Leadership, the Army War College has begun a complementary research project, combining the talents of faculty and students. A key line of initial inquiry for us has been to forecast the nature of the future security environment in which the Army will operate. That is the task Dr. Steven Metz set for himself in this monograph. In the pages that follow he propounds "currents of change" that will determine the future and sketches a series of plausible future security systems. Each system is characterized by the forms of conflict that will dominate it, the major strategic issues the United States might face, and the resulting military implications. While Dr. Metz's analysis leads to observations certain to be controversial, he illustrates quite clearly the primacy that environmental context will have in shaping our national security outlook and military strategy. Thus, Dr. Metz's observations on trends and systems warrant careful consideration as national policymakers and the Army's leaders build the military force of the future.
Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization by John Gordon,Brian Nichiporuk Pdf
Having developed several plausible alternative futures, the authors of this book describe each one's possible implications for the Army's likely missions and the forces required for those missions, discussing the impact on Army modernization plans.
Uniformed U.S. Army Officers lunch with students in elementary school cafeterias. Army training programs including rifle and pistol instruction replace physical education in middle schools. Like never before, military recruiters are entering the halls of U.S. schools with unchecked access in an attempt to bolster a military in crisis. However, even as these destructive efforts to militarize youth accelerate, so do the creative and powerful efforts of students, community members, and veterans to challenge them. Today, the counter recruitment movement—from counseling to poetry slams to citywide lobbying efforts—has become one of the most practical ways to tangibly resist U.S. policy that cuts funding for education and social programs while promoting war and occupation. Without enough soldiers, the U.S. cannot sustain its empire. Army of None exposes the real story behind the military-recruitment complex, and offers guides, tools, and resources for education and action, and people power strategies to win.
United States. Department of the Army. Professional Development of Officers Study Group
Author : United States. Department of the Army. Professional Development of Officers Study Group Publisher : Unknown Page : 402 pages File Size : 52,9 Mb Release : 1985 Category : United States ISBN : UOM:39015047784346
Professional Development of Officers Study: Policy impact analysis by United States. Department of the Army. Professional Development of Officers Study Group Pdf
Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Democratizing Leadership: Counter?hegemonic Democracy in Organizations, Institutions, and Communities promotes leadership in the democratization of culture to counter the current hegemony of domination and cultivate an alternative hegemony of collaboration. It is premised on a leadership framework for decision?making rooted in democratic voice and leading to collective action. This broad peacebuilding prescription for individual and collective agency accounts for the constructive role of conflict in democratic pluralism, and the need to develop practices and structures that prevent violent conflict in order to advance positive peace. This theory addresses the contexts of deliberative, agonistic, and revolutionary democratic frameworks. Democratizing Leadership is informed by three qualitative case studies described in rich detail. First Bank System Visual Art Program, In the Heart of the Beast Theater's May Day Ritual, and The Minnesota Alliance of Peacemakers exemplify the practice of democratizing leadership. These diverse settings include corporate banking during 1980's deregulation, an annual community May Day parade, and an informal alliance of peacemaking organizations. Leadership in each case promotes authentic voice, encourages decision?making with integrity, and advocates for responsible collective action.
Alternative Futures and Army Force Planning by Brian Nichiporuk Pdf
What should the U.S. Army look like in 20 years? Using the tool of alternative futures analysis, this study attempts to help the Army with force planning for the 2025 era. It lays out a spectrum of different "future worlds" to illustrate the complete universe of future missions. Analyzing possible trends across five key areas (geopolitics, economics, demographics, technology, and environment), the study defines six alternative futures and postulates an appropriate "Army type" for each one.
Taking Intelligence Analysis to the Next Level by Patrick McGlynn Pdf
Taking Intelligence to the Next Level: Advanced Intelligence Analysis Methodologies Using Real-World Business, Crime, Military, and Terrorism Examples examines intelligence gathering and analysis and the significance of these programs. Coverage assumes a basic understanding of the intelligence cycle and processes, and the book builds upon the author’s previous text, Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals—also published by CRC Press—to further address various types of intelligence, the function and increasing usage of intelligence in both the private and public sectors, and the consumption of intelligence products to inform strategic decision-making. Developed for a classroom environment, chapters are packed with multiple examples, visuals, and practical exercises tailored for the intelligence community (IC), military intelligence analyst, criminal, or business analyst alike. The text begins with a chapter on analytical ethics, an important topic that sets the tone for those to come that cover intelligence gathering analytical techniques. The author utilizes multiple instructive learning approaches to build on the student’s existing analytical skills gained from other training resources, their experience, or some other combination. While topics covered are germane to all intelligence analysis fields—including military, national, political, criminal, and business—specific chapters and sections and most instructional examples, scenarios, exercises, and learning activities focus on the Homeland Security Mission and the associated problem sets. The training presentation methods and instructional approaches are the product of much thought, research, and discussion, and a variety of US government and commercial analytical training methodologies are presented. The book closes with a final chapter looking at future trends in intelligence analysis. Key Features: Provides tools to challenge intelligence assessments systematically and objectively, a prerequisite to vetted intelligence conclusions Outlines diagnostic techniques to explain events or data sets, anticipate potential outcomes, predict future trends, and make decisions for optimal outcomes Details how to conduct research to effectively write, edit, format, and disseminate reports to best effect An accompany Instructor’s Guide, for use in the classroom, contains the same practical exercises as those found in the student text, as well as facilitator’s guides, practical exercise solutions, discussion points, sample test questions, and answer keys, to include other websites that can provide additional instructional content. Taking Intelligence to the Next Level serves as an essential course textbook for programs in intelligence, terrorism, and Homeland Security in addition to serving a useful reference for practicing professionals. Ancillaries including PowerPoint lecture slides, as well as the Instructor’s Guide with Test Bank, are available for qualified course adopters.
Unfolding the Future of the Long War by Christopher G. Pernin,Brian Nichiporuk,Dale Stahl,Justin Beck,Ricky Radaelli-Sanchez Pdf
The United States is currently engaged in a military effort that has been characterized as the "long war." This study explores the concept of long war and identifies ways in which it might unfold as well as the implications for the Army and the U.S. military more generally. This report uses the generation of either "trajectories" or alternative paths in which the long war might unfold to explore the implications for the U.S. military.
Managing Risk in USAF Force Planning by Frank A. Camm Pdf
Presents a risk-management process would help senior Air Force leaders to (1) focus planning on the most salient threats, (2) gain greater clarity on the risks associated with alternative courses of action across multiple futures, (3) maintain a sense of the persistent uncertainties associated with any policy choice, and (4) effectively communicate their judgments about risk to key audiences.
