An Apocalypse Foretold Climate Shocks And Sovereign Defaults

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An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults

Mr.Serhan Cevik,João Tovar Jalles
An Apocalypse Foretold Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults Book PDF

Author : Mr.Serhan Cevik,João Tovar Jalles
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2020-11-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513560409

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An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults by Mr.Serhan Cevik,João Tovar Jalles Pdf

Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on the probability of sovereign debt default. Using a sample of 116 countries over the period 1995–2017, we find that climate change vulnerability and resilience have significant effects on the probability of sovereign debt default, especially among low-income countries. That is, countries with greater vulnerability to climate change face a higher likelihood of debt default compared to more climate resilient countries. These findings remain robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, including alternative measures of sovereign debt default, model specifications, and estimation methodologies.

Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth

Mr. Serhan Cevik,João Tovar Jalles
Eye of the Storm The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth Book PDF

Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik,João Tovar Jalles
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2023-04-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400241307

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Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth by Mr. Serhan Cevik,João Tovar Jalles Pdf

What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as climate shocks tend to be ubiquitous, but with opposing effects simultaneously on demand and supply. The extent of which climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country’s fiscal and institutional capacity to support recovery. In this paper, we use the local projection method to empirically investigate how climate shocks, as measured by climate-induced natural disasters, influence inflation and economic growth in a large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond significantly but also differently in terms of direction and magnitude to different types of disasters caused by climate change. We split the full sample of countries into income groups—advanced economies and developing countries—and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on inflation and growth according to income level, state of the economy, and fiscal space when the shock hits.

Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance

Mr. Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin
Rogue Waves Climate Change and Firm Performance Book PDF

Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2022-05-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400208171

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Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance by Mr. Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin Pdf

Climate change is an existential threat to the global economy and financial markets. There is a large body of literature documenting potential macroeconomic consequences of climate change, but firm-level empirical research on how climate change affects the performance of firms remains scarce. This paper aims to close this gap by empirically investigating the impact of climate change vulnerability on corporate performance using a large panel dataset of more than 3.3 million nonfinancial firms from 24 developing countries over the period 1997–2019. We find that nonfinancial firms operating in countries with greater vulnerability to climate change tend to experience difficulty in access to debt financing even at higher interest rates, while being less productive and profitable relative to firms in countries with lower vulnerability to climate change. We confirm these findings with alternative measures of climate change vulnerability. Furthermore, partitioning the sample reveals that these effects are significantly greater for smaller firms, especially in high-risk sectors and countries and countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.

Climate Change and Energy Security: The Dilemma Or Opportunity of the Century?

Mr. Serhan Cevik
Climate Change and Energy Security The Dilemma Or Opportunity of the Century Book PDF

Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2022-09-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400218347

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Climate Change and Energy Security: The Dilemma Or Opportunity of the Century? by Mr. Serhan Cevik Pdf

This paper investigates the connection between climate change and energy security in Europe and provides empirical evidence that these issues are the two faces of the same coin. Using a panel of 39 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2019, the empirical analysis presented in this paper indicates that increasing the share of nuclear, renewables, and other non-hydrocarbon energy and improving energy efficiency could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions and improve energy security throughout Europe. Accordingly, policies and reforms aimed at shifting away from hydrocarbons and increasing energy efficiency in distribution and consumption are key to mitigating climate change, reducing energy dependence, and minimizing exposure to energy price volatility.

Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages

OECD
Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages Book PDF

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 135 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2022-12-08
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264801196

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Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages by OECD Pdf

Governments are facing significant climate-related risks from the expected increase in frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, fires, and other climate-related extreme events. The report Building Financial Resilience to Climate Impacts: A Framework for Governments to Manage the Risks of Losses and Damages provides a strategic framework to help governments, particularly those in emerging market and developing economies, strengthen their capacity to manage the financial implications of climate-related risks.

Republic of Lithuania

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Republic of Lithuania Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 35 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2022-07-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400217333

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Republic of Lithuania by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

Selected Issues

This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation

Mr. Serhan Cevik,Gyowon Gwon
This Is Going to Hurt Weather Anomalies Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation Book PDF

Author : Mr. Serhan Cevik,Gyowon Gwon
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2024-04-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400269523

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This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation by Mr. Serhan Cevik,Gyowon Gwon Pdf

As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to worsen and have greater adverse consequences for ecosystems, physical infrastructure, and economic activity across the world. This paper investigates how weather anomalies affect global supply chains and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for six large and well-diversified economies (China, the Euro area, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States) over the period 1997-2021, we implement a structural vector autoregressive model and document that weather anomalies could disrupt supply chains and subsequently lead to inflationary pressures. Our results—based on high-frequency data and robust to alternative estimation methodologies—show that these effects vary across countries, depending on the severity of weather shocks and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The impact of weather shocks on supply chains and inflation dynamics is likely to become more pronounced with accelerating climate change that can have non-linear effects. These findings have important policy implications. Central bankers should consider the impact of weather anomalies on supply chains and inflation dynamics to prevent entrenching second-round effects and de-anchoring of inflation expectations. More directly, however, governments can invest more for climate change adaptation to strengthen critical infrastructure and thereby minimize supply chain disruptions.

Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change

Mr. Zamid Aligishiev,Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon
Macro Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change Book PDF

Author : Mr. Zamid Aligishiev,Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2022-03-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400201608

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Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change by Mr. Zamid Aligishiev,Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon Pdf

Adaptation to climate change is an integral part of sustainable development and a necessity for advanced and developing economies alike. How can adaptation be planned for and mainstreamed into fiscal policy? Setting up inclusive coordination mechanisms and strengthening legal foundations to incorporate climate change can be a prerequisite. This Note identifies four building blocks: 1. Taking stock of present and future climate risks, identifying knowledge and capacity gaps, and establishing guidance for next steps. 2. Developing adaptation solutions. This block can be guided by extending the IMF three-pillar disaster resilience strategy to address changes in both extreme and average weather and would cover the prevention of risks, the alleviation of residual risks, and macro-fiscal resilience. 3. Mainstreaming these solutions into government operations. This requires strengthening public financial management institutions by factoring climate risks and adaptation plans into budgets and macro-frameworks, and in the management of public investment, assets and liabilities. 4. Providing for transparent evaluations to inform future plans. This involves continually monitoring progress and regularly updating adaptation plans.

Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy

Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon
Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy Book PDF

Author : Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2022-03-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400201950

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Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy by Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon Pdf

This Staff Climate Note is part of a series of three Notes (IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/001, 2022/002, and 2022/003) that discuss fiscal policies for climate change adaptation. A first Note (Bellon and Massetti 2022, henceforth Note 1) examines the economic principles that can guide the integration of climate change adaptation into fiscal policy. It argues that climate change adaptation should be part of a holistic, sustainable, and equitable development strategy. To maximize the impact of scarce resources, governments need to prioritize among all development programs, including but not limited to adaptation. To this end, they can use cost-benefit analysis while ensuring that the decision-making process reflects society’s preferences about equity and uncertainty. A second Note (Aligishiev, Bellon, and Massetti. 2022, henceforth Note 2) discusses the macro-fiscal implications of climate change adaptation. It reviews evidence on the effectiveness of adaptation at reducing climate change damages, on residual risks, and on adaptation investment needs, and suggests ways to integrate climate risks and adaptation costs into national macro-fiscal frameworks with the goal of guiding fiscal policy. It stresses that lower-income vulnerable countries, which have typically not contributed much to climate change, face exacerbated challenges that warrant increased international support. This third Note considers how to translate adaptation principles and estimates of climate impacts into effective policies.

Climate Change and Climate Finance

Asian Development Bank
Climate Change and Climate Finance Book PDF

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
Page : 202 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2023-09-01
Category : Science
ISBN : 9789292703097

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Climate Change and Climate Finance by Asian Development Bank Pdf

Analyzing the role companies can play in tackling climate change, this book shows how they can set up effective environmental, social, and governance (ESG) frameworks and draft resilient strategies for sustainable activities and investment. It assesses the issue of climate justice, considers the impact of “greenwashing”, and looks at ways investors can evaluate ESG considerations. It outlines the corporate and economic risks of climate change alongside the response from central banks. It shows that policy guidance, increased transparency, and information sharing is central for the private sector to make progress towards tackling climate change while protecting its business interests.

Understanding Collapse

Guy D. Middleton
Understanding Collapse Book PDF

Author : Guy D. Middleton
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 463 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2017-06-26
Category : History
ISBN : 9781107151499

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Understanding Collapse by Guy D. Middleton Pdf

In this lively survey, Guy D. Middleton critically examines our ideas about collapse - how we explain it and how we have constructed potentially misleading myths around collapses - showing how and why collapse of societies was a much more complex phenomenon than is often admitted.

Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises

Federico Sturzenegger,Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises Book PDF

Author : Federico Sturzenegger,Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 399 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2007-01-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780262195539

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Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises by Federico Sturzenegger,Jeromin Zettelmeyer Pdf

Detailed case studies of debt defaults by Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Moldova, and Uruguay, framed by a comprehensive discussion of the history, economic theory, legal issues, and policy lessons of sovereign debt crises. The debt crises in emerging market countries over the past decade have given rise to renewed debate about crisis prevention and resolution. In Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises, Federico Sturzenegger and Jeromin Zettelmeyer examine the facts, the economic theory, and the policy implications of sovereign debt crises. They present detailed case histories of the default and debt crises in seven emerging market countries between 1998 and 2005: Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, Moldova, and Uruguay. These accounts are framed with a comprehensive overview of the history, economics, and legal issues involved and a discussion from both domestic and international perspectives of the policy lessons that can be derived from these experiences. Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer examine how each crisis developed, what the subsequent restructuring encompassed, and how investors and the defaulting country fared. They discuss the new theoretical thinking on sovereign debt and the ultimate costs entailed, for both debtor countries and private creditors. The policy debate is considered first from the perspective of policymakers in emerging market countries and then in terms of international financial architecture. The authors' surveys of legal and economic issues associated with debt crises, and of the crises themselves, are the most comprehensive to be found in the literature on sovereign debt and default, and their theoretical analysis is detailed and nuanced. The book will be a valuable resource for investors as well as for scholars and policymakers.

The Sovereign Individual

James Dale Davidson,Lord William Rees-Mogg
The Sovereign Individual Book PDF

Author : James Dale Davidson,Lord William Rees-Mogg
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
Page : 363 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2020-02-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781439144732

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The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson,Lord William Rees-Mogg Pdf

From the authors of The Great Reckoning: “A sweeping analysis of the implications, especially financial, of the information age.” —Library Journal In this book, two renowned investment advisors bring to light both currents of disaster and the potential for prosperity and renewal in the face of radical changes in human history in the twenty-first century. The Sovereign Individual details strategies necessary for adapting financially to the next phase of Western civilization. Few observers have had their fingers so presciently on the pulse of global political and economic realignment: Their bold prediction of disaster on Wall Street in Blood in the Streets was borne out by Black Tuesday. In their ensuing bestseller, The Great Reckoning, published just weeks before the coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev, they analyzed the pending collapse of the Soviet Union and foretold the civil war in Yugoslavia. In The Sovereign Individual, they explore the greatest economic and political transition in centuries—the shift from an industrial to an information-based society. This transition, which they have termed “the fourth stage of human society,” will liberate individuals as never before, irrevocably altering the power of government. This outstanding book will replace false hopes and fictions with new understanding and clarified values.

The Oxford Handbook of Apocalyptic Literature

John Joseph Collins
The Oxford Handbook of Apocalyptic Literature Book PDF

Author : John Joseph Collins
Publisher : Oxford Handbooks
Page : 565 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Religion
ISBN : 9780199856497

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The Oxford Handbook of Apocalyptic Literature by John Joseph Collins Pdf

Apocalypticism arose in ancient Judaism in the last centuries BCE and played a crucial role in the rise of Christianity. It is not only of historical interest: there has been a growing awareness, especially since the 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, of the prevalence of apocalyptic beliefs in the contemporary world. To understand these beliefs, it is necessary to appreciate their complex roots in the ancient world, and the multi-faceted character of the phenomenon of apocalypticism. The Oxford Handbook of Apocalyptic Literature is a thematic and phenomenological exploration of apocalypticism in the Judaic and Christian traditions. Most of the volume is devoted to the apocalyptic literature of antiquity. Essays explore the relationship between apocalypticism and prophecy, wisdom and mysticism; the social function of apocalypticism and its role as resistance literature; apocalyptic rhetoric from both historical and postmodern perspectives; and apocalyptic theology, focusing on phenomena of determinism and dualism and exploring apocalyptic theology's role in ancient Judaism, early Christianity, and Gnosticism. The final chapters of the volume are devoted to the appropriation of apocalypticism in the modern world, reviewing the role of apocalypticism in contemporary Judaism and Christianity, and more broadly in popular culture, addressing the increasingly studied relation between apocalypticism and violence, and discussing the relationship between apocalypticism and trauma, which speaks to the underlying causes of the popularity of apocalyptic beliefs. This volume will further the understanding of a vital religious phenomenon too often dismissed as alien and irrational by secular western society.

In the Eye of the Storm

Alberto Costi,James A. Renwick
In the Eye of the Storm Book PDF

Author : Alberto Costi,James A. Renwick
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2020
Category : Climatic changes
ISBN : 0473550024

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In the Eye of the Storm by Alberto Costi,James A. Renwick Pdf

"This publication... is the product of our second biennial Pacific Climate Change Conference held in Wellington in 2018. A diverse range of experts have addressed the current state of the Pacific, researching and writing chapters on: the physical science of climate change; impacts and adaptation; mitigation techniques; politics and security; international cooperation; domestic and international legal issues; economics and business; communication through the arts and media; and matters of faith and spirituality"--Page xi.