An Empirical Assessment Of The Exchange Rate Pass Through In Mozambique

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An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique

International Monetary Fund
An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass through in Mozambique Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513573694

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An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.

An Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Angola and Nigeria

Ana Lariau,Moataz El-Said,Ms.Misa Takebe
An Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass Through in Angola and Nigeria Book PDF

Author : Ana Lariau,Moataz El-Said,Ms.Misa Takebe
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2016-09-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475537529

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An Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Angola and Nigeria by Ana Lariau,Moataz El-Said,Ms.Misa Takebe Pdf

This paper estimates the exchange rate pass-through to consumer price inflation in Angola and Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the changes of the pass-through over time. Even though the two countries share smilar dependence on oil exports, this paper reveals different results. For Angola, the long-run exchange rate pass-through to prices is high, though it has weakened in recent years reflecting the de-dollarization of the economy. In Nigeria, there is no stable long-run relationship between the exchange rate and prices, and changes in the exchange rate do not have a significant pass-through effect on inflation. However, the passthrough effect on core inflation is significant.

An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania

Nkunde Mwase
An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass Through to Inflation in Tanzania Book PDF

Author : Nkunde Mwase
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2006-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822034388553

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An Empirical Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation in Tanzania by Nkunde Mwase Pdf

The paper examines the effect of exchange rate changes on consumer prices in Tanzania using structural vector autoregression (VAR) models. Using a data set covering the period 1990-2005, we find that the exchange rate pass-through to inflation declined in the late 1990s despite the depreciation of the currency. This could be partly attributed to the macroeconomic and structural reforms that were implemented during this period. The decline in the pass-through does not necessarily imply that exchange rate fluctuations are less significant in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. The recent increase in the share of imports in the economy suggests that the pass-through could rise over the medium term. The findings imply that the authorities should remain vigilant in assessing the potential impact of foreign prices on the dynamics of inflation in Tanzania. In this regard, the authorities should seek to maintain low and stable inflation and continue the ongoing structural reforms designed to improve efficiency and increase competition.

Lessons from Haiti’s Recent Exchange Rate Developments

Ms. Rina Bhattacharya,Neil Shenai
Lessons from Haiti s Recent Exchange Rate Developments Book PDF

Author : Ms. Rina Bhattacharya,Neil Shenai
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2022-11-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400226038

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Lessons from Haiti’s Recent Exchange Rate Developments by Ms. Rina Bhattacharya,Neil Shenai Pdf

From August to October 2020, the Haitian authorities were successful at bringing about a sharp appreciation in the gourde/U.S. dollar exchange rate. This paper analyzes the factors behind this appreciation and its spillovers on the economy. It finds that foreign exchange surrender requirements had a statistically significant effect on the nominal exchange rate, while foreign exchange intervention by the central bank did not. Surrender requirements were also found to have raised trading costs and volatility in the foreign exchange market and contributed to the development of a wider parallel nominal exchange rate premium. This appreciation contributed to a decline in headline inflation during the episode while delivering some fuel subsidy-related savings to the government. Remittance-dependent households and exporters saw a drop in their purchasing power, and Haiti’s net external buffers were adversely affected. Following from these findings, the paper offers recommendations on ways to facilitate foreign exchange management and boost external sustainability while contributing to the central bank’s overall policy objectives.

Republic of Mozambique

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Republic of Mozambique Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 123 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2023-07-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400248078

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Republic of Mozambique by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. Pdf

The economic recovery is broad-based and strengthening. Inflation pressures remain moderate reflecting favorable domestic food production and stable fuel prices. Fiscal performance in 2022 was worse than expected, mainly due to slippage in the wage bill reform and revenue underperformance. Mozambique has been grappling with the impact of Cyclone Freddy and a persistent cholera outbreak. The security situation in the North has improved; municipal elections will be held in October 2023, and general elections in October 2024.

Republic of Mozambique

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Republic of Mozambique Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 79 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2018-03-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484345634

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Republic of Mozambique by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper documents the main features of the current monetary policy regime in Mozambique, describe ongoing structural policy changes announced by the central bank, and analyze the main challenges facing the central bank in the process to modernize its monetary policy framework. Recognizing the signaling value of interest rates to anchor inflation expectations and help influence market interest rates, the paper usefully focuses on the needed reforms to enable the central bank to successfully replace monetary aggregates by interest rate as the main instrument of monetary policy. Deepening the understanding of the obstacles on the way to a smooth monetary transmission, further building the central bank inflation forecasting capacity, strengthening the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing central bank communications and modernizing the legal framework to ensure central bank operational autonomy are essential to the success of the new monetary regime. Importantly, the presence of a committed and strong technical team and a reform-oriented management should greatly facilitate the implementation of these vital central bank reforms.

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes

Mr.Kenneth Rogoff,Mr.Ashoka Mody,Nienke Oomes,Mr.Robin Brooks,Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes Book PDF

Author : Mr.Kenneth Rogoff,Mr.Ashoka Mody,Nienke Oomes,Mr.Robin Brooks,Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 85 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2003-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451875843

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Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes by Mr.Kenneth Rogoff,Mr.Ashoka Mody,Nienke Oomes,Mr.Robin Brooks,Mr.Aasim M. Husain Pdf

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

Currencies, Commodities and Consumption

Kenneth W. Clements
Currencies Commodities and Consumption Book PDF

Author : Kenneth W. Clements
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2013-01-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781107014763

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Currencies, Commodities and Consumption by Kenneth W. Clements Pdf

Discusses economic issues associated with exchange rates, commodity prices, the economic size of countries and alternatives to PPP exchange rates.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu
The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation Book PDF

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2021-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616356156

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The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu Pdf

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Global Waves of Debt

M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Global Waves of Debt Book PDF

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815454

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Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

International Monetary Fund
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low Income and Other Developing Countries Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 74 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2015-10-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498344067

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Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Real Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nontradable Goods

Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti,S. Micossi
Real Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nontradable Goods Book PDF

Author : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti,S. Micossi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 1994-02-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451922516

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Real Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nontradable Goods by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti,S. Micossi Pdf

This paper attempts to provide a perspective on real exchange rate developments following the inception of the EMS. The focus is on structural determinants of real exchange rates, notably the behavior of tradables and nontradable prices and productivity. It is found that changes in the relative price of tradable goods in terms of nontradables account for a sizable fraction of real exchange rate dynamics during the EMS period. Sectoral productivity growth differential help explain the behavior of the relative price of tradable goods, especially in the long run. There is also some evidence that the EMS has extended on relative price behavior.

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Romain M Veyrune
Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks A Risk based Framework Book PDF

Author : Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Romain M Veyrune
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 33 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2021-02-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513569406

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Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework by Romain Lafarguette,Mr.Romain M Veyrune Pdf

This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

Macroeconomics for Professionals

Leslie Lipschitz,Susan Schadler
Macroeconomics for Professionals Book PDF

Author : Leslie Lipschitz,Susan Schadler
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 312 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2019-01-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781108568463

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Macroeconomics for Professionals by Leslie Lipschitz,Susan Schadler Pdf

Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.

Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia

Masahiro Kawai,Peter J. Morgan,Shinji Takagi
Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia Book PDF

Author : Masahiro Kawai,Peter J. Morgan,Shinji Takagi
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780857933355

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Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia by Masahiro Kawai,Peter J. Morgan,Shinji Takagi Pdf

Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.