Analyzing Uncertainty In Civil Engineering

Author : Wolfgang Fellin,Heimo Lessmann,Michael Oberguggenberger,Robert Vieider
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2005-12-19
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783540268475

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Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering by Wolfgang Fellin,Heimo Lessmann,Michael Oberguggenberger,Robert Vieider Pdf

This volume addresses the issue of uncertainty in civil engineering from design to construction. Failures do occur in practice. Attributing them to a residual system risk or a faulty execution of the project does not properly cover the range of causes. A closer scrutiny of the adopted design, the engineering model, the data, the soil-construction-interaction and the model assumptions is required. Usually, the uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are abundant. Current engineering practice often leaves these issues aside, despite the fact that new scientific tools have been developed in the past decades that allow a rational description of uncertainties of all kinds, from model uncertainty to data uncertainty. It is the aim of this volume to have a critical look at current engineering risk concepts in order to raise awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical models of failure mechanisms and their implications for construction management, execution, and the juristic question of responsibility. In addition, a number of the new procedures for modelling uncertainty are explained. The book is a result of a collaborate effort of mathematicians, engineers and construction managers who met regularly in a post graduate seminar at the University of Innsbruck during the past years.

Author : Wolfgang Fellin
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 242 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Civil engineering
ISBN : OCLC:1035705932

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Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering by Wolfgang Fellin Pdf

This volume addresses the issue of uncertainty in civil engineering from design to construction. Failures do occur in practice. Attributing them to a residual system risk or a faulty execution of the project does not properly cover the range of causes. A closer scrutiny of the adopted design, the engineering model, the data, the soil-construction-interaction and the model assumptions is required. Usually, the uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are abundant. Current engineering practice often leaves these issues aside, despite the fact that new scientific tools have been developed in the past decades that allow a rational description of uncertainties of all kinds, from model uncertainty to data uncertainty. It is the aim of this volume to have a critical look at current engineering risk concepts in order to raise awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical models of failure mechanisms and their implications for construction management, execution, and the juristic question of responsibility. In addition, a number of the new procedures for modelling uncertainty are explained. The book is a result of a collaborate effort of mathematicians, engineers and construction managers who met regularly in a post graduate seminar at the University of Innsbruck during the past years.

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 534 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 1997-12-29
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 0849331080

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Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering by Bilal M. Ayyub Pdf

With the expansion of new technologies, materials, and the design of complex systems, the expectations of society upon engineers are becoming larger than ever. Engineers make critical decisions with potentially high adverse consequences. The current political, societal, and financial climate requires engineers to formally consider the factors of uncertainty (e.g., floods, earthquakes, winds, environmental risks) in their decisions at all levels. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Civil Engineering provides a thorough report on the immediate state of uncertainty modeling and analytical methods for civil engineering systems, presenting a toolbox for solving problems in real-world situations. Topics include Neural networks Genetic algorithms Numerical modeling Fuzzy sets and operations Reliability and risk analysis Systems control Uncertainty in probability estimates This compendium is a considerable reference for civil engineers as well as for engineers in other disciplines, computer scientists, general scientists, and students.

Author : Gary C. Hart
Publisher : Prentice Hall
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 1982
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : UOM:39015000464951

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Uncertainty Analysis, Loads, and Safety in Structural Engineering by Gary C. Hart Pdf

Author : Gregory B. Baecher,John T. Christian
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 618 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2005-08-19
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780470871256

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Reliability and Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering by Gregory B. Baecher,John T. Christian Pdf

Risk and reliability analysis is an area of growing importance in geotechnical engineering, where many variables have to be considered. Statistics, reliability modeling and engineering judgement are employed together to develop risk and decision analyses for civil engineering systems. The resulting engineering models are used to make probabilistic predictions, which are applied to geotechnical problems. Reliability & Statistics in Geotechnical Engineering comprehensively covers the subject of risk and reliability in both practical and research terms * Includes extensive use of case studies * Presents topics not covered elsewhere--spatial variability and stochastic properties of geological materials * No comparable texts available Practicing engineers will find this an essential resource as will graduates in geotechnical engineering programmes.

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub,George J. Klir
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 401 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2006-05-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781420011456

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Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences by Bilal M. Ayyub,George J. Klir Pdf

Engineers and scientists often need to solve complex problems with incomplete information resources, necessitating a proper treatment of uncertainty and a reliance on expert opinions. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences prepares current and future analysts and practitioners to understand the fundamentals of knowledge a

Author : Bernd Möller,Michael Beer
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2013-03-14
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9783662073582

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Fuzzy Randomness by Bernd Möller,Michael Beer Pdf

sections dealing with fuzzy functions and fuzzy random functions are certain to be of special interest. The reader is expected to be in command of the knowledge gained in a basic university mathematics course, with the inclusion of stochastic elements. A specification of uncertainty in any particular case is often difficult. For this reason Chaps. 3 and 4 are devoted solely to this problem. The derivation of fuzzy variables for representing informal and lexical uncertainty reflects the subjective assessment of objective conditions in the form of a membership function. Techniques for modeling fuzzy random variables are presented for data that simultaneously exhibit stochastic and nonstochastic properties. The application of fuzzy randomness is demonstrated in three fields of civil engineering and computational mechanics: structural analysis, safety assessment, and design. The methods of fuzzy structural analysis and fuzzy probabilistic structural analysis developed in Chap. 5 are applicable without restriction to arbitrary geometrically and physically nonlinear problems. The most important forms of the latter are the Fuzzy Finite Element Method (FFEM) and the Fuzzy Stochastic Finite Element Method (FSFEM).

Author : Ben Chie Yen,Yeou-Koung Tung
Publisher : ASCE Publications
Page : 306 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 1993-01-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 078447592X

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Reliability and Uncertainty Analyses in Hydraulic Design by Ben Chie Yen,Yeou-Koung Tung Pdf

Prepared by the Subcommittee on Uncertainty and Reliability Analyses in Design of Hydraulic Structures of the Technical Committee on Probabilistic Approaches to Hydraulics of ASCE. This report contains 13 papers presenting the application of reliability analysis to the design and safety of hydraulic structures. Several recent major failures of engineering systems have raised public concern on the safety and reliability of engineering struct.ures. Decades ago, a quantitative evaluation of the reliability of structures was not possible and engineers used safety factors that were determined mainly through experience and judgement. Recent advances in probability methods and computers make it feasible to evaluate the contributions of various technologic and natural factors to the safety and reliability of structures.ØThe first four papers in this report discuss techniques pertinent to reliability and uncertainty analyses. The next nine papers explore how these techniques can be applied to dam safety, coastal floods, and hydraulic structures. The report concludes with a reprint of an article by Vrijling on the Eastern Scheldt Storm Surge Barrier of the Delta Project in the Netherlands and the use of reliability analysis for sewer design.

Author : Yeou-Koung Tung,Ben-Chie Yen
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
Page : 306 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2005-04-14
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780071467087

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Hydrosystems Engineering Uncertainty Analysis by Yeou-Koung Tung,Ben-Chie Yen Pdf

Failure of hydrosystems, such as dams, levees, storm sewers, or pollution control systems, pose threats to the public safety and health as well as potentially inflict enormous damages on properties and environments. Many failures of hydrosystems are mainly attributed by the existence of various uncertainties, including inherent natural randomness and the lack of complete understanding of involved geophysical processes. It is therefore essential to systematically quantify the degree of uncertainty for the problem in hand so that reliability assessment and risk-based design of hydrosystems can be made. The conventional approach of frequency analysis of heavy rainfalls or large floods consider only portion of the uncertainties involved in hydrosystem engineering problems. Over the past two decades or so, there has been a steady growth on the development and application of uncertainty analysis techniques in hydrosystems engineering and other disciplines. The aim of this book is to bring together these uncertainty analysis techniques in one book and to demonstrate their applications and limitations for a wide variety of hydrosystem engineering problems.

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub,Madan M. Gupta
Publisher : Elsevier Publishing Company
Page : 568 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Computers
ISBN : UOM:39015037255943

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Uncertainty Modelling and Analysis by Bilal M. Ayyub,Madan M. Gupta Pdf

Vital information on machine intelligence and pattern recognition is provided by this publication. In particular, the 31 papers discuss the ways in which uncertainty modelling and analysis are becoming an integral part of system definition and modelling in many fields. Contributions are sourced from an international base of researchers, scientists and engineers working on theoretical developments and diversified applications in engineering systems. The book is divided into two main parts. The first, Uncertainty Models and Measures, includes chapters on theoretical studies and developments carried out on uncertainty (including cognitive uncertainty and how it relates to information and intelligence), information, fuzzy logic, expert systems and neural networks. There are also chapters on modelling uncertainty in the reliability assessment of complex systems, linguistic connectives, the principle of maximum buoyancy, uncertain evidence, inductive learning, convex modelling, new uncertainty measures and information and uncertainty.The larger second part, Applications to Engineering Systems, contains application-oriented studies in fields related to civil, electrical, energy and general engineering systems. The papers cover studies on general uncertainty types in structural engineering, bridges, transmission structures, structural reliability, structural identification, system life cycle analysis, control, construction activities, decision analysis, signal detection, risk management, product quality, military command and control, data bases, long-term projections and predictions and assessment of insurance indices.The book conveys the excitement, advances and promises that all these fields offer to our expanding information-based technological society. It also hopes to stimulate the interest of other researchers around the world who are facing the challenge of new theoretical studies and innovative technological changes.

Author : Isaac Elishakoff,Christian Soize
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 357 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2013-07-30
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783709113066

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Nondeterministic Mechanics by Isaac Elishakoff,Christian Soize Pdf

Table of contents: Stochastic methods in nonlinear structural dynamics.- Stochastic models of uncertainties in computational structural dynamics and structural acoustics.- The tale of stochastic linearization techniques: over half a century of progress.- Comprehensive modeling of uncertain systems using fuzzy set theory.- Bounding uncertainty in civil engineering: theoretical background and applications.- Combined methods in nondeterministic mechanics. In this book the current state of the art of nondeterministic mechanics in its various forms is presented. The topics range from stochastic problems to fuzzy sets; from linear to nonlinear problems; from specific methodologies to combinations of various techniques; from theoretical considerations to practical applications. It is specially designed to illuminate the various aspects of the three methodologies (probabilistic or stochastic modelling, fuzzy sets based analysis, antioptimization of structures) to deal with various uncertainties and deepen the discussion of their pros and cons.

Author : Alberto Bernardini,Fulvio Tonon
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 322 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2010-03-15
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783642111907

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Bounding Uncertainty in Civil Engineering by Alberto Bernardini,Fulvio Tonon Pdf

Taking an engineering, rather than a mathematical, approach, Bounding uncertainty in Civil Engineering - Theoretical Background deals with the mathematical theories that use convex sets of probability distributions to describe the input data and/or the final response of systems. The particular point of view of the authors is centered on the applications to civil engineering problems, and the theory of random sets has been adopted as a basic and relatively simple model. However, the authors have tried to elucidate its connections to the more general theory of imprecise probabilities, Choquet capacities, fuzzy sets, p-boxes, convex sets of parametric probability distributions, and approximate reasoning both in one dimension and in several dimensions with associated joint spaces. If choosing the theory of random sets may lead to some loss of generality, it has, on the other hand, allowed for a self-contained selection of the topics and a more unified presentation of the theoretical contents and algorithms. With over 80 examples worked out step by step, the book should assist newcomers to the subject (who may otherwise find it difficult to navigate a vast and dispersed literature) in applying the techniques described to their own specific problems.

Author : Robb Eric S. Moss
Publisher : Springer
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2019-07-31
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783030226800

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Applied Civil Engineering Risk Analysis by Robb Eric S. Moss Pdf

This updated edition retains its introduction to applied fundamental statistics, probability, reliability, and decision theory as these pertain to problems in Civil Engineering. The new edition adds an expanded treatment of systems reliability, Bayesian methods, and spatial variabililty, along with additional example problems throughout. The book provides readers with the tools needed to determine the probability of failure, and when multiplied by the consequences of failure, illustrates how to assess the risk of civil engineering problems. Presenting methods for quantifying uncertainty that exists in engineering analysis and design, with an emphasis on fostering more accurate analysis and design, the text is ideal for students and practitioners of a range of civil engineering disciplines. Expands on the class-tested pedagogy from the first edition with more material and more examples; Broadens understanding with simulations coded both in Matlab and in R; Features new chapters on spatial variability and Bayesian methods; Emphasizes techniques for estimating the influence of uncertainty on the probability of failure

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub,Madan M. Gupta
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 376 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781461554738

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Uncertainty Analysis in Engineering and Sciences: Fuzzy Logic, Statistics, and Neural Network Approach by Bilal M. Ayyub,Madan M. Gupta Pdf

Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.

Author : Etienne de Rocquigny,Nicolas Devictor,Stefano Tarantola
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 364 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2008-09-15
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470770740

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Uncertainty in Industrial Practice by Etienne de Rocquigny,Nicolas Devictor,Stefano Tarantola Pdf

Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.