Assessing Loss Of Market Access Conceptual And Operational Issues
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Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues by Ms.Anastasia Guscina,Sheheryar Malik,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou Pdf
Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.
Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues by Ms.Anastasia Guscina,Sheheryar Malik,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou Pdf
Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.
Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf
A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.
Victor Hugo C. Alexandrino da Silva,Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Ms. Diva Singh
Author : Victor Hugo C. Alexandrino da Silva,Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Ms. Diva Singh Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 55 pages File Size : 54,5 Mb Release : 2021-05-07 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781513573656
Determinants of and Prospects for Market Access in Frontier Economies by Victor Hugo C. Alexandrino da Silva,Luiza Antoun de Almeida,Ms. Diva Singh Pdf
In recent years, we have observed an increase in low-income countries’ (LICs) access to international capital markets, especially after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates what factors—country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals and/or external variables—have contributed to the surge in external bond issuance by these LICs, which we refer to in our paper as ‘frontier economies’. Using data on public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external bond issuance, outstanding PPG bond stock, as well as sovereign spreads, we employ panel data analysis to examine factors related to the increase in issuance by these economies as well as the reduction in their spreads over time. Our empirical study shows that both country-specific fundamentals (such as public debt, current account balance, level of reserves, quality of institutions) and external variables (such as US growth and the VIX index) play a role in explaining the increased amount of issuance and the decline in spreads of frontier economies’ sovereign bonds. The impact of some of these variables on issuance appears to reflect a country’s need to issue bonds for external financing (‘the supply side’ of bond issuance), while others appear to correlate more through their impact on investors’ appetite for a country’s debt (‘the demand side’). In addition, the impact of country-specific variables can also be affected by external factors such as global risk appetite. Our analysis of key factors that have contributed to increased market access for frontier economies over the past decade provides important information to gauge the prospects for their continued market access, and for other LICs to join this group by tapping international markets for the first time.
How to Assess Country Risk by International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf
The IMF’s Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund’s broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE modeling toolkit is regularly updated in response to global economic developments and the latest modeling innovations. The new generation of VE models presented here leverages machine-learning algorithms. The models can better capture interactions between different parts of the economy and non-linear relationships that are not well measured in ”normal times.” The performance of machine-learning-based models is evaluated against more conventional models in a horse-race format. The paper also presents direct, transparent methods for communicating model results.
This edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook reviews developments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic for government borrowing needs, funding conditions and funding strategies in the OECD area.
Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office Pdf
This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.
Fiscal Crises by Mrs.Kerstin Gerling,Mr.Paulo A Medas,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan,Juan Farah-Yacoub,Yizhi Xu Pdf
A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.
Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Flows and Prices by Mr. Evan Papageorgiou,Rohit Goel Pdf
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.
A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks by Thordur Jonasson,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou Pdf
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach by Klaus-Peter Hellwig Pdf
In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in accuracy. Performance of machine learning techniques improves further, particularly for developing countries, when I expand the set of potential predictors and make use of algorithmic selection techniques instead of relying on a small set of variables deemed important by the literature. There is considerable agreement across learning algorithms in the set of selected predictors: Results confirm the importance of external sector stock and flow variables found in the literature but also point to demographics and the quality of governance as important predictors of fiscal crises. Fiscal variables appear to have less predictive value, and public debt matters only to the extent that it is owed to external creditors.
Debt Is Not Free by Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Paulo Medas,Pranav Gupta,Yuan Xiang Pdf
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
The OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook provides regular updates on trends and developments associated with sovereign borrowing requirements, funding strategies, market infrastructure and debt levels from the perspective of public debt managers. The Outlook makes a policy distinction between funding strategy and borrowing requirements.
Author : Dennis Zagermann Publisher : University of Toronto Press Page : 193 pages File Size : 52,5 Mb Release : 2023-12-18 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9781487552282
Remaking European Political Economies by Dennis Zagermann Pdf
From 2009 to 2015, the euro area of the European Union (EU) experienced an existential socio-economic crisis. To secure its institutional integrity, the EU designed several new institutions to support member states in need but also to facilitate socio-economic adjustments. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) lies at the centre of this strategy: it provides financial assistance to member states in severe crisis on an intergovernmental basis while demanding compliance with adjustment programs from program countries. Based on a comparative political economic analysis, Remaking European Political Economies shows that the EU’s financial assistance programs focused strongly on reforms that led to a partial convergence of program countries based on market-based economic governance and reduced governmental influence in the economy. The book draws on extensive, empirically based case studies of two prominent euro area countries in crisis: Greece and Ireland. Dennis Zagermann illustrates that socio-economic models in the euro area can experience institutional change if exposed to severe crises in combination with financial assistance programs that include policy conditionality. In doing so, his book sheds light on the central question of whether there is a possible convergence of European models of capitalism – a question that has been at the centre of comparative political economic debates for over thirty years.
Foundations of Forensic Vocational Rehabilitation by Rick Robinson, Ph.D., MBA, LMHC, CRC, CVE, NCC, D/ABVE Pdf
This is the first fundamental text to focus specifically on forensic vocational rehabilitation, a field that is forecast to grow rapidly. Forensic vocational rehabilitation consultants evaluate the vocational and rehabilitation needs of individuals in an array of legal settings such as civil litigation, workersí compensation, Social Security disability, and others. The text is unique in its exploration of the vocational rehabilitation process from a biopsychosocial perspective that views disability as a complex and multidimensional construct. The book comprehensively describes the parameters and theoretical issues of relevance in evaluating and developing opinions in forensically oriented matters. It culls and synthesizes current peer-reviewed literature and research on this private subspecialty practice area of rehabilitation counseling, including theories, models, methods, procedures, and fundamental tenets of the field. Also included is current information about the labor market, life care planning, and professional identity, standards, and ethics. The text is designed for graduate and postgraduate students in rehabilitation counseling and psychology as well as practicing forensic vocational rehabilitation consultants and professionals moving toward practice in this arena. Chapters are authored by noted scholars or published practitioners in each subject area, and include an introduction to the content area, discussion of key terminology and concepts, and a review of the current and historical literature, with emphasis toward future research needs and evidence-based practice. The book fulfills the requirement by the Commission on Rehabilitation Education (CORE) for training in this subject area at the graduate level for new certification or certification maintenance. Key Features: Comprises the only foundational text to focus specifically on forensic vocational rehabilitation Synthesizes peer-reviewed research into one authoritative source Describes the role, function, and scope of practice of the rehabilitation counselor in private forensic vocational rehabilitation practice Fulfills CORE requirements for certification
