Assessing Risks To Stability In Sub Saharan Africa

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Assessing Risks to Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa

Richard Downie,Jennifer G. Cooke
Assessing Risks to Stability in Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : Richard Downie,Jennifer G. Cooke
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Africa, Sub-Saharan
ISBN : 0892066512

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Assessing Risks to Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa by Richard Downie,Jennifer G. Cooke Pdf

"This study examines potential fissures and stressors that might lead in the coming decade to signifant social dislocation or political instability in 10 African countries presented. The case studies are not intended to offer hard and fast predictions about the future. Each sketches out potential scenarios for the next 10 years, but the purpose of these scenarios is to illustrate how different dynamics and underlying vulnerabilities might converge to create the conditions for instability. Few, if any, of the countries in this series are at imminent risk of breakdown. All of them have coping mechanisms that militate against conflict, and discussions of potential "worst-case scenarios" have to be viewed with this qualification in mind."--P. iv.

Nigeria

Peter Lewis
Nigeria Book PDF

Author : Peter Lewis
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 17 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Nigeria
ISBN : OCLC:742589767

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Nigeria by Peter Lewis Pdf

Nigeria is Africa's most populous country, with an estimated 155 million people, and among its most diverse, with more than 250 distinct ethnic and linguistic groups. Islam and Christianity are nearly equally represented, while African traditional religions are also prevalent. The country has abundant natural resources, including the largest oil and gas reserves in sub-Saharan Africa. Since gaining independence from Britain in 1960, Nigeria has reflected deep-seated divisions, pervasive instability, and recurring conflict. The challenges to stability in Nigeria can be seen along political, social, and economic dimensions. There is no question that Nigeria contends with multiple vulnerabilities, and that the specter of failure is often present. Yet the country also embodies important sources of resilience, including institutional innovation, elite bargaining, and civic resources for attenuating conflict. It remains an open question whether Nigeria will realize a more positive trajectory, continue to experience stagnation and violence, or suffer a descent into calamity. The pivotal elements that could determine these alternate paths include elections, leadership, elite strategies, and key economic indicators.

Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mindaugas Leika,Hector Perez-Saiz,Ms.Olga Ilinichna Stankova,Torsten Wezel
Stress Testing in Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : Mindaugas Leika,Hector Perez-Saiz,Ms.Olga Ilinichna Stankova,Torsten Wezel
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2020-05-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513532912

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Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa by Mindaugas Leika,Hector Perez-Saiz,Ms.Olga Ilinichna Stankova,Torsten Wezel Pdf

The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.

Building Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa's Fragile States

Mr.Enrique Gelbard,Corinne Deléchat,Ms.Ejona Fuli,Mr.Mumtaz Hussain,Mr.Ulrich Jacoby,Mrs.Dafina Glaser,Mr.Marco Pani,Mr.Gustavo Ramirez,Rui Xu
Building Resilience in Sub Saharan Africa s Fragile States Book PDF

Author : Mr.Enrique Gelbard,Corinne Deléchat,Ms.Ejona Fuli,Mr.Mumtaz Hussain,Mr.Ulrich Jacoby,Mrs.Dafina Glaser,Mr.Marco Pani,Mr.Gustavo Ramirez,Rui Xu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 99 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2015-06-25
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513550015

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Building Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa's Fragile States by Mr.Enrique Gelbard,Corinne Deléchat,Ms.Ejona Fuli,Mr.Mumtaz Hussain,Mr.Ulrich Jacoby,Mrs.Dafina Glaser,Mr.Marco Pani,Mr.Gustavo Ramirez,Rui Xu Pdf

This paper analyzes the persistence of fragility in some sub-Saharan African states and the multiple dimensions of state weakness that are simultaneously at play. This study also provides an overview of the analytics of fragility, conflict, and international engagement with fragile states before turning to an assessment of the current state of affairs and the areas in which there has been progress in building resilience. The paper also looks at the role of fiscal policies and institutions and analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations. Seven country case studies help identify more concretely some key factors at play, and the diversity of paths followed, with an emphasis on the sequencing of reforms. The paper concludes with a summary of the main findings and policy implications.

Rwanda

Jennifer G. Cooke
Rwanda Book PDF

Author : Jennifer G. Cooke
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Political stability
ISBN : OCLC:742589846

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Rwanda by Jennifer G. Cooke Pdf

Seventeen years after the 1994 civil war and genocide, Rwanda is apparently stable, posting consistently strong economic growth rates and managing the country's considerable development assistance revenues effectively and transparently. But the country's apparent stability masks deep-rooted tensions, unresolved resentments, and an authoritarian government that is unwilling to countenance criticism or open political debate. There is a real risk that, if left unaddressed, those shortcomings could exacerbate tensions and ultimately drive broader instability.

Towards Africa-oriented Risk Analysis Models

Korwa Gombe Adar,Richard O. Iroanya,F. O. C. Nwonwu
Towards Africa oriented Risk Analysis Models Book PDF

Author : Korwa Gombe Adar,Richard O. Iroanya,F. O. C. Nwonwu
Publisher : African Books Collective
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2008
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780798302135

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Towards Africa-oriented Risk Analysis Models by Korwa Gombe Adar,Richard O. Iroanya,F. O. C. Nwonwu Pdf

Risk analysis studies on Africa conducted by a number of international organisations have addressed a number of complex and interlocking socioeconomic and political issues, largely painting a bleak picture of the continent. These reports have been used by the Western countries as benchmarks for the flow of donor funds, often with disastrous consequences. The failure of the Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) introduced by the Bretton Woods institutions in the 1970s and 1980s serve as a good example. Taking cognisance of these interpretations, the case studies in this volume have employed appropriate methodological, conceptual and theoretical approaches with the objective of reaching balanced assessments on the underlying principles of risk and threat in Africa. The authors take a more holistic view, clearly defining the concept of risk and its corollaries and going beyond the somewhat limited view of those organisations which apply largely Eurocentric values to their assessments.

Killing Sub-Saharan Africa with Aid

Humphrey Orjiako
Killing Sub Saharan Africa with Aid Book PDF

Author : Humphrey Orjiako
Publisher : Nova Publishers
Page : 132 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1560728795

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Killing Sub-Saharan Africa with Aid by Humphrey Orjiako Pdf

Annotation. Orijiako, who is not identified, examines the hypothesis that rather than promoting growth and development in sub-Saharan Africa, foreign aid interventions may have contributed in no small measure to the poor performance of the region's economies. Challenging conventional views that problems are technical details of delivery or administration, he suggests that an economy operating under appropriate circumstances and conditions may not require foreign aid to succeed, and presents historical records, common sense, and cognate experiments to bolster the view. c. Book News Inc.

Kenya

Joel D. Barkan
Kenya Book PDF

Author : Joel D. Barkan
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Kenya
ISBN : OCLC:742599809

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Kenya by Joel D. Barkan Pdf

The violence that erupted in Kenya following the disputed outcome of the 2007 presidential election shook the country to its core and challenged the complacent view of many in the international community that Kenya was not a country to "worry about". For the past two decades, political life in Kenya has been characterized by a long-term struggle between two opposing forces: the "dinosaurs" who wish to cling to the old style of identity politics, and the "modernizers" who wish to break out of that mold, establishing a more inclusive and accountable political system. For now the outcome is uncertain. Growing economic inequalities, the influx of Somali refugees, the impact of climate change and environmental degradation, and rampant urbanization are all emerging issues that have the potential to destabilize the country in the long term.

Uganda

Joel D. Barkan
Uganda Book PDF

Author : Joel D. Barkan
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Political stability
ISBN : OCLC:742597709

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Uganda by Joel D. Barkan Pdf

For much of its postcolonial history, Uganda has provided a textbook example of so-called big man rule. The regimes of Milton Obote and Idi Amin were brutal and highly personalized. Yoweri Museveni promised something different. Yet, 25 years later, Museveni has failed to break the mold of Ugandan politics. There is a veneer of democracy, marked by regular elections, yet achieved on an unlevel playing field. Uganda's government is in essence an authoritarian patronage-based regime, albeit one that can still count on considerable yet tepid support from a population for whom the memory of war and civil conflict is still fairly recent. This style of governance has major implications for the future stability of Uganda. Although the long-term threats to Uganda are mostly internal, the short-term challenges come mainly from outside. The most immediate one is the potential spillover effect of instability in South Sudan.

Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries

Daniela Marchettini,Mr. Rodolfo Maino
Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Daniela Marchettini,Mr. Rodolfo Maino
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2015-08-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513520353

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Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries by Daniela Marchettini,Mr. Rodolfo Maino Pdf

We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be conducted with different tools at different stages of financial development. In particular, when the level of financial depth is low, traditional leading indicators of banking crises have poor predictive performance and the analysis should be based on indicators that account for financial deepening while taking into consideration countries’ structural limits. By using this framework, we provide a preliminary assessment of systemic risk buildup in individual SSA countries.

Sub-Saharan Africa

World Bank
Sub Saharan Africa Book PDF

Author : World Bank
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105008886231

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Sub-Saharan Africa by World Bank Pdf

3. Investing in people.

Sudan

Richard Downie
Sudan Book PDF

Author : Richard Downie
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 27 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Internal security
ISBN : OCLC:741525077

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Sudan by Richard Downie Pdf

Sudan's long-term stability depends on whether the country's North and South can reach and fully implement equitable agreements on the terms of their separation in July 2011. North Sudan faces a highly volatile period during the next decade. The ruling National Congress Party will face growing calls for political change, an economic slump, and the possibility of armed challenges from within. There is the added risk of contagion from the uprisings seen elsewhere in North Africa. The regime will most likely use violence to confront these challenges. The prospect of civil war cannot be ruled out. South Sudan faces the enormous challenge of the need to establish a functioning state with few resources in the face of serious security challenges. Its stability will depend on establishing its legitimacy as a state, which will mean being able to provide services to its citizens and keeping them safe. The next decade is likely to see slow progress checked by frequent reversals.

Botswana

David Throup
Botswana Book PDF

Author : David Throup
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Botswana
ISBN : 0892066350

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Botswana by David Throup Pdf

"Botswana's economy remains highly dependent on diamond revenues, and repeated efforts to create alternative types of economic growth and job creation have failed. [...] In the short term, Botswana's main vulnerability is its dependence on regional dynamics. As a landlocked and agriculturally unproductive country, Botswana is economically dependent on South Africa for its critical needs such as food, petroleum, and electricity. Thus, an economic or political crisis in South Africa would have significant subsequent effects in Botswana. Botswana's ruling political party is in long-term decline. Although the potential for social upheaval is minimal, a change in the political balance of power is possible during the next decade."--P. 1.

FinTech in Sub-Saharan African Countries

Mr.Amadou N Sy,Mr.Rodolfo Maino,Mr.Alexander Massara,Hector Perez Saiz,Preya Sharma
FinTech in Sub Saharan African Countries Book PDF

Author : Mr.Amadou N Sy,Mr.Rodolfo Maino,Mr.Alexander Massara,Hector Perez Saiz,Preya Sharma
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2019-02-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484385661

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FinTech in Sub-Saharan African Countries by Mr.Amadou N Sy,Mr.Rodolfo Maino,Mr.Alexander Massara,Hector Perez Saiz,Preya Sharma Pdf

FinTech is a major force shaping the structure of the financial industry in sub-Saharan Africa. New technologies are being developed and implemented in sub-Saharan Africa with the potential to change the competitive landscape in the financial industry. While it raises concerns on the emergence of vulnerabilities, FinTech challenges traditional structures and creates efficiency gains by opening up the financial services value chain. Today, FinTech is emerging as a technological enabler in the region, improving financial inclusion and serving as a catalyst for the emergence of innovations in other sectors, such as agriculture and infrastructure.

Global Trends 2040

National Intelligence Council
Global Trends 2040 Book PDF

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

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Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.