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Benford’s Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality by Mr.Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia,Mr.Gonzalo C. Pastor Pdf
This paper examines the usefulness of testing the conformity of macroeconomic data with Benford's law as indicator of data quality. Most of the macroeconomic data series tested conform with Benford's law. However, questions emerge on the reliability of such tests as indicators of data quality once conformity with Benford's law is contrasted with the data quality ratings included in the data module of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (data ROSCs). Furthermore, the analysis shows that rejection of Benford's law may be unrelated to the quality of statistics, and instead may result from marked structural shifts in the data series. Hence, nonconformity with Benford's law should not be interpreted as a reliable indication of poor quality in macroeconomic data.
Benford's law states that the leading digits of many data sets are not uniformly distributed from one through nine, but rather exhibit a profound bias. This bias is evident in everything from electricity bills and street addresses to stock prices, population numbers, mortality rates, and the lengths of rivers. Here, Steven Miller brings together many of the world’s leading experts on Benford’s law to demonstrate the many useful techniques that arise from the law, show how truly multidisciplinary it is, and encourage collaboration. Beginning with the general theory, the contributors explain the prevalence of the bias, highlighting explanations for when systems should and should not follow Benford’s law and how quickly such behavior sets in. They go on to discuss important applications in disciplines ranging from accounting and economics to psychology and the natural sciences. The contributors describe how Benford’s law has been successfully used to expose fraud in elections, medical tests, tax filings, and financial reports. Additionally, numerous problems, background materials, and technical details are available online to help instructors create courses around the book. Emphasizing common challenges and techniques across the disciplines, this accessible book shows how Benford’s law can serve as a productive meeting ground for researchers and practitioners in diverse fields.
Corruption and Fraud in Financial Markets by Carol Alexander,Douglas Cumming Pdf
Identifying malpractice and misconduct should be top priority for financial risk managers today Corruption and Fraud in Financial Markets identifies potential issues surrounding all types of fraud, misconduct, price/volume manipulation and other forms of malpractice. Chapters cover detection, prevention and regulation of corruption and fraud within different financial markets. Written by experts at the forefront of finance and risk management, this book details the many practices that bring potentially devastating consequences, including insider trading, bribery, false disclosure, frontrunning, options backdating, and improper execution or broker-agency relationships. Informed but corrupt traders manipulate prices in dark pools run by investment banks, using anonymous deals to move prices in their own favour, extracting value from ordinary investors time and time again. Strategies such as wash, ladder and spoofing trades are rife, even on regulated exchanges – and in unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges one can even see these manipulative quotes happening real-time in the limit order book. More generally, financial market misconduct and fraud affects about 15 percent of publicly listed companies each year and the resulting fines can devastate an organisation's budget and initiate a tailspin from which it may never recover. This book gives you a deeper understanding of all these issues to help prevent you and your company from falling victim to unethical practices. Learn about the different types of corruption and fraud and where they may be hiding in your organisation Identify improper relationships and conflicts of interest before they become a problem Understand the regulations surrounding market misconduct, and how they affect your firm Prevent budget-breaking fines and other potentially catastrophic consequences Since the LIBOR scandal, many major banks have been fined billions of dollars for manipulation of prices, exchange rates and interest rates. Headline cases aside, misconduct and fraud is uncomfortably prevalent in a large number of financial firms; it can exist in a wide variety of forms, with practices in multiple departments, making self-governance complex. Corruption and Fraud in Financial Markets is a comprehensive guide to identifying and stopping potential problems before they reach the level of finable misconduct.
This book provides a detailed analysis of the institutional transformations brought about by the financial crisis, focusing on the institution-building course of Europe and the Constitution-bending course in several Member States. It discusses the seemingly contradictory interplay between national and European institutions and the law resulting from the crisis, arguing that the anti-crisis exceptionality constitutes the matrix of the new normality of the reformed European economic governance. The author carries out a critical analysis of the new economic governance and its case-law with regular reference to relevant political episodes, key economic figures and to the hitherto lax modes and rules. The author also offers deep insights into the Greek adjustment programme and the crisis-related Greek and Portuguese constitutional case-law, presented in comparison with the German and French case-law. The book concludes with a critical overview of the profound mutations in the role of national Constitutions, instigated by the new European economic governance, and the emergence of a democratically deficient meta-constitutional mode of functioning of both the European institutions and national Constitutions.
A powerful new tool for all forensic accountants, or anyone whoanalyzes data that may have been altered Benford's Law gives the expected patterns of the digits in thenumbers in tabulated data such as town and city populations orMadoff's fictitious portfolio returns. Those digits, in unaltereddata, will not occur in equal proportions; there is a large biastowards the lower digits, so much so that nearly one-half of allnumbers are expected to start with the digits 1 or 2. Thesepatterns were originally discovered by physicist Frank Benford inthe early 1930s, and have since been found to apply to alltabulated data. Mark J. Nigrini has been a pioneer in applyingBenford's Law to auditing and forensic accounting, even before hisgroundbreaking 1999 Journal of Accountancy article introducing thisuseful tool to the accounting world. In Benford's Law, Nigrinishows the widespread applicability of Benford's Law and itspractical uses to detect fraud, errors, and other anomalies. Explores primary, associated, and advanced tests, all describedwith data sets that include corporate payments data and electiondata Includes ten fraud detection studies, including vendor fraud,payroll fraud, due diligence when purchasing a business, and taxevasion Covers financial statement fraud, with data from Enron, AIG,and companies that were the target of hedge fund short sales Looks at how to detect Ponzi schemes, including data on Madoff,Waxenberg, and more Examines many other applications, from the Clinton tax returnsand the charitable gifts of Lehman Brothers to tax evasion andnumber invention Benford's Law has 250 figures and uses 50 interestingauthentic and fraudulent real-world data sets to explain boththeory and practice, and concludes with an agenda and directionsfor future research. The companion website adds additionalinformation and resources.
On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations by Peter A.G. van Bergeijk Pdf
This informative book reveals the pervasive nature of large inaccuracies in economic statistics. Drawing on numerous real-world examples including case studies from advanced and developing countries, Peter van Bergeijk presents profound insights into how downplaying these errors undermines the scientific rigour of economic analysis and outlines how to manage uncertainty in economic analysis moving forward.
This book addresses three main dimensions of risk management in emerging markets: 1) the effectiveness of risk management practices; 2) current issues and challenges in risk assessment and modelling in emerging market countries; 3) the responses of emerging markets to the recent financial crises and the design of risk management models.
Quantitative Methods in Economics and Finance by Tomas Kliestik,Katarina Valaskova,Maria Kovacova Pdf
The purpose of the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods in Economics and Finance” of the journal Risks was to provide a collection of papers that reflect the latest research and problems of pricing complex derivates, simulation pricing, analysis of financial markets, and volatility of exchange rates in the international context. This book can be used as a reference for academicians and researchers who would like to discuss and introduce new developments in the field of quantitative methods in economics and finance and explore applications of quantitative methods in other business areas.
An Introduction to Benford's Law by Arno Berger,Theodore P. Hill Pdf
This book provides the first comprehensive treatment of Benford's law, the surprising logarithmic distribution of significant digits discovered in the late nineteenth century. Establishing the mathematical and statistical principles that underpin this intriguing phenomenon, the text combines up-to-date theoretical results with overviews of the law’s colorful history, rapidly growing body of empirical evidence, and wide range of applications. An Introduction to Benford’s Law begins with basic facts about significant digits, Benford functions, sequences, and random variables, including tools from the theory of uniform distribution. After introducing the scale-, base-, and sum-invariance characterizations of the law, the book develops the significant-digit properties of both deterministic and stochastic processes, such as iterations of functions, powers of matrices, differential equations, and products, powers, and mixtures of random variables. Two concluding chapters survey the finitely additive theory and the flourishing applications of Benford’s law. Carefully selected diagrams, tables, and close to 150 examples illuminate the main concepts throughout. The text includes many open problems, in addition to dozens of new basic theorems and all the main references. A distinguishing feature is the emphasis on the surprising ubiquity and robustness of the significant-digit law. This text can serve as both a primary reference and a basis for seminars and courses.
Maritime Economics by Alan Branch,Martin Stopford Pdf
Now in its second edition Maritime Economics provides a valuable introduction to the organisation and workings of the global shipping industry. The author outlines the economic theory as well as many of the operational practicalities involved. Extensively revised for the new edition, the book has many clear illustrations and tables. Topics covered include: * an overview of international trade * Maritime Law * economic organisation and principles * financing ships and shipping companies * market research and forecasting.
The first comprehensive review of past and contemporary research on the Earth's inner core from a seismological perspective. Providing a detailed account of how seismology is used in inner core research, and suggesting avenues for further study, it is an essential resource for researchers and students studying seismology and deep Earth processes.
Environmental Hydrology, Second Edition by Andy D. Ward,Stanley W. Trimble Pdf
The technological advances of recent years include the emergence of new remote sensing and geographic information systems that are invaluable for the study of wetlands, agricultural land, and land use change. Students, hydrologists, and environmental engineers are searching for a comprehensive hydrogeologic overview that supplements information on hydrologic processes with data on these new information technology tools. Environmental Hydrology, Second Edition builds upon the foundation of the bestselling first edition by providing a qualitative understanding of hydrologic processes while introducing new methods for quantifying hydrologic parameters and processes. Written by authors with extensive multidisciplinary experience, the text first discusses the components of the hydrologic cycle, then follows with chapters on precipitation, stream processes, human impacts, new information system applications, and numerous other methods and strategies. By updating this thorough text with the newest analytical tools and measurement methodologies in the field, the authors provide an ideal reference for students and professionals in environmental science, hydrology, soil science, geology, ecological engineering, and countless other environmental fields.
The Economic and Legal Effectiveness of the European Union's Anti-money Laundering Policy by Brigitte Unger,Joras Ferwerda,Melissa van den Broek,Ioana Deleanu Pdf
Official government policies against money laundering in the EU have been in place for roughly 25 years, after much concerted effort and a great deal of time and money invested. This volume examines the anti-money laundering policy of the EU Member States in connection to the threat of money laundering they face. During a three-year study the authors analyzed the policies in-depth by traveling to 27 Member States to interview over a hundred people involved in the fight against money laundering. The analysis includes an inquiry into the national supervisory architectures, a comparison of the definitions of money laundering used in practice, a breakdown of the role of Financial Intelligence Units and a cost-benefit analysis of anti-money laundering policy. Skillfully assessing the economic and legal effectiveness of anti-money laundering efforts in the EU, this comprehensive study will appeal to students, scholars and practitioners working in economics, banking, finance and law. Contents 1. Introduction and Operationalization 2. Threat of Money Laundering 3. Harmonization of Substantive Norms in Preventative AML 4. Implementing International Conventions and the Third EU Directive 5. Supervisory Architectures in the Preventive AML Policy 6. Definitions of Money Laundering in Practice 7. FIU's in the European Union - Facts and Figures, Functions and Facilities 8. Information Flows and Repressive Enforcement 9. International Cooperation 10. Collection of Statistics 11. Effectiveness: Threat and Corresponding Policy Response 12. Cost Benefit Analysis 13. Summary and Conclusions
Become the forensic analytics expert in your organization using effective and efficient data analysis tests to find anomalies, biases, and potential fraud—the updated new edition Forensic Analytics reviews the methods and techniques that forensic accountants can use to detect intentional and unintentional errors, fraud, and biases. This updated second edition shows accountants and auditors how analyzing their corporate or public sector data can highlight transactions, balances, or subsets of transactions or balances in need of attention. These tests are made up of a set of initial high-level overview tests followed by a series of more focused tests. These focused tests use a variety of quantitative methods including Benford’s Law, outlier detection, the detection of duplicates, a comparison to benchmarks, time-series methods, risk-scoring, and sometimes simply statistical logic. The tests in the new edition include the newly developed vector variation score that quantifies the change in an array of data from one period to the next. The goals of the tests are to either produce a small sample of suspicious transactions, a small set of transaction groups, or a risk score related to individual transactions or a group of items. The new edition includes over two hundred figures. Each chapter, where applicable, includes one or more cases showing how the tests under discussion could have detected the fraud or anomalies. The new edition also includes two chapters each describing multi-million-dollar fraud schemes and the insights that can be learned from those examples. These interesting real-world examples help to make the text accessible and understandable for accounting professionals and accounting students without rigorous backgrounds in mathematics and statistics. Emphasizing practical applications, the new edition shows how to use either Excel or Access to run these analytics tests. The book also has some coverage on using Minitab, IDEA, R, and Tableau to run forensic-focused tests. The use of SAS and Power BI rounds out the software coverage. The software screenshots use the latest versions of the software available at the time of writing. This authoritative book: Describes the use of statistically-based techniques including Benford’s Law, descriptive statistics, and the vector variation score to detect errors and anomalies Shows how to run most of the tests in Access and Excel, and other data analysis software packages for a small sample of the tests Applies the tests under review in each chapter to the same purchasing card data from a government entity Includes interesting cases studies throughout that are linked to the tests being reviewed. Includes two comprehensive case studies where data analytics could have detected the frauds before they reached multi-million-dollar levels Includes a continually-updated companion website with the data sets used in the chapters, the queries used in the chapters, extra coverage of some topics or cases, end of chapter questions, and end of chapter cases. Written by a prominent educator and researcher in forensic accounting and auditing, the new edition of Forensic Analytics: Methods and Techniques for Forensic Accounting Investigations is an essential resource for forensic accountants, auditors, comptrollers, fraud investigators, and graduate students.
The Palgrave Handbook of Development Cooperation for Achieving the 2030 Agenda by Sachin Chaturvedi,Heiner Janus,Stephan Klingebiel,Xiaoyun Li,André de Mello e Souza,Elizabeth Sidiropoulos,Dorothea Wehrmann Pdf
This open access handbook analyses the role of development cooperation in achieving the 2030 Agenda in a global context of 'contested cooperation'. Development actors, including governments providing aid or South-South Cooperation, developing countries, and non-governmental actors (civil society, philanthropy, and businesses) constantly challenge underlying narratives and norms of development. The book explores how reconciling these differences fosters achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Sachin Chaturvedi is Director General at the Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), a New Delhi, India-based think tank. Heiner Janus is a researcher in the Inter- and Transnational Cooperation programme at the German Development Institute. Stephan Klingebiel is Chair of the Inter- and Transnational Cooperation programme at the German Development Institute and Senior Lecturer at the University of Marburg, Germany. Xiaoyun Li is Chair Professor at China Agricultural University and Honorary Dean of the China Institute for South-South Cooperation in Agriculture. Prof. Li is the Chair of the Network of Southern Think Tanks and Chair of the China International Development Research Network. André de Mello e Souza is a researcher at the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), a Brazilian governmental think tank. Elizabeth Sidiropoulos is Chief Executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs. She has co-edited Development Cooperation and Emerging Powers: New Partners or Old Patterns (2012) and Institutional Architecture and Development: Responses from Emerging Powers (2015). Dorothea Wehrmann is a researcher in the Inter- and Transnational Cooperation programme at the German Development Institute.
