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Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics by Thomas J. Sargent Pdf
How do people behave in new situations in which previous experience is not useful? The recent changes in Eastern Europe, for example, are unprecedented and there is not an available model on which to base the mechanisms that will govern the economics in this region. The concept of "bounded (orlimited) rationality" is being developed to analyze behavior in such situations. In this book Thomas Sargent describes and interprets the recent work in the area, especially in statistics, econometrics, networks and artificial intelligence. He focuses on examples designed to illustrate the issuesinvolved and the kinds of questions that are being asked and answered in this research. He points to further potential positive developments of the theory as well as some of its limitations.
Rationality, Bounded Rationality and Microfoundations by R. Salehnejad Pdf
This book challenges the generally accepted theories of classical economics, explaining why the expected utility theory, even if it were true, fails to be of much help in solving economic controversies.
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality by Jonathan Benchimol,Lahcen Bounader Pdf
The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia regarding the output gap, revenue, or interest rate. To the extent that bygones are not bygones under price level targeting, rational inflation expectations is a minimal condition for optimality in a behavioral world. Instrument rules implementation of this optimal policy is shown to be infeasible, questioning the ability of simple rules à la Taylor (1993) to assist the conduct of monetary policy. Bounded rationality is not necessarily associated with welfare losses.
Economics, Economists and Expectations by William Darity,Robert Leeson,Warren Young Pdf
The concept of rational expectations has played a hugely important role in economics over the years. Dealing with the origins and development of modern approaches to expectations in micro and macroeconomics, this book makes use of primary sources and previously unpublished material from such figures as Hicks, Hawtrey and Hart. The accounts of the 'founding fathers' of the models themselves are also presented here for the first time. The authors trace the development of different approaches to expectations from the likes of Hayek, Morgenstern, and Coase right up to more modern theorists such as Friedman, Patinkin, Phelps and Lucas. The startling conclusion that there was no 'Rational Expectations Revolution' is articulated, supported and defended with impressive clarity and authority. A necessity for economists across the world, this book will deserve its place upon many an academic bookshelf.
Economics, Bounded Rationality and the Cognitive Revolution by The late Herbert A. Simon,Massimo Egidi,Robin Lapthorn Marris,Riccardo Viale Pdf
The purpose of this book is to publish the ideas of the late Herbert Simon and sympathetic economists, on the subject of bounded rationality, economics, cognitive science and related disciplines, and to reprint some of Professor Simon's classic papers which have appeared in journals not widely read by economists. Not only on account of his Nobel Prize in Economics, but also because of the widespread applications of his ideas and theories, it is especially valuable to readers to have a book of this kind at the present time. Currently in this whole field, there is increasing emphasis on computer-related theory building. Herbert Simon, beginning from the time when microcomputers did not exist, was a pioneer of this approach. The book begins with an edited transcript of a colloquium, held between Herbert Simon and a group of Italian economists in Italy in 1988. It continues with the reprinted Simon papers and papers by three scholars, Raymond Boudon, Massimo Egidi and Riccardo Viale coming from different disciplines but holding a common interest in bounded rationality and ends with a response by a sympathetic economist, Robin Marris.
This short book introduces the field of bounded rationality to a beginning readership in economics. It is intended to be a tour of the key concepts involved in the modelling of bounded rationality, the approaches that have been adopted and some of the most revealing, and at times surprising, findings that have been generated. The book explores how bounded rationality has been used in economic models to shed light on real life behaviour and how doing so has led to specific policy implications that would otherwise have gone unappreciated. The exposition is intended to be non-technical and free from any mathematical expressions and workings and the focus throughout is primarily on the behaviour of individuals or organisations within given situations rather than on macroeconomic concerns. How the field has evolved since the 1950s and the strengths and weaknesses of its current research programme, including its relationship with behavioural economics, are assessed.
Bounded Rationality by Gerd Gigerenzer,Reinhard Selten Pdf
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.
Bounded Rationality and Strategic Complementarity in a Macroeconomic Model by Antúlio N. Bomfim,Francis X. Diebold Pdf
Motivated by recent developments in the bounded rationality and strategic complementarity literatures, we examine an intentionally simple and stylized aggregative economic model, when the assumptions of fully rational expectations and no strategic interactions are relaxed. We show that small deviations from rational expectations, taken alone, lead only to small deviations from classical policy- ineffectiveness, but that the situation can change dramatically when strategic complementarity is introduced. Strategic complementarity magnifies the effects of even small departures from rational expectations, producing equilibria with policy effectiveness, output persistence and multiplier effects.
Bounded Rationality and Public Policy by Alistair Munro Pdf
This book is about bounded rationality and public policy. It is written from the p- spective of someone trained in public economics who has encountered the enormous literature on experiments in decision-making and wonders what implications it has for the normative aspects of public policy. Though there are a few new results or models, to a large degree the book is synthetic in tone, bringing together disparate literatures and seeking some accommodation between them. It has had a long genesis. It began with a draft of a few chapters in 2000, but has expanded in scope and size as the literature on behavioural economics has grown. At some point I realised that the geometric growth of behavioural - search and the arithmetic growth of my writing were inconsistent with an am- tion to be exhaustive. As such therefore I have concentrated on particular areas of behavioural economics and bounded rationality. The resulting book is laid out as follows: Chapter 1 provides an overview of the rest of the book, goes through some basic de?nitions and identi?es themes.
Rationality and Explanation in Economics by Maurice Lagueux Pdf
This book analyses the role of rationality in economics focusing on which conditions the rationality assumption makes valuable explanations possible and what kinds of explanation are then involved.
Psychology, Rationality and Economic Behaviour by B. Agarwal,A. Vercelli Pdf
Economics has paid little attention to the psychology of economic behaviour, leading to somewhat simplistic assumptions about human nature. The psychological aspects have typically been reduced to standard utility theory, based on a narrow conception of rationality and self-interest maximization. The contributions in this volume, some focused on analytical models and methodology, others on laboratory and field experiments, challenge these assumptions, and provide novel and complex understandings of human motivation and economic decision-making. With a pioneering introduction by the book's two editors, this volume brings together exciting contributions to a field that is rapidly growing in influence and reach.
Macroeconomics from the Bottom-up by Domenico Delli Gatti,Saul Desiderio,Edoardo Gaffeo,Pasquale Cirillo,Mauro Gallegati Pdf
This book arose from our conviction that the NNS-DSGE approach to the analysis of aggregate market outcomes is fundamentally flawed. The practice of overcoming the SMD result by recurring to a fictitious RA leads to insurmountable methodological problems and lies at the root of DSGE models’ failure to satisfactorily explain real world features, like exchange rate and banking crises, bubbles and herding in financial markets, swings in the sentiment of consumers and entrepreneurs, asymmetries and persistence in aggregate variables, and so on. At odds with this view, our critique rests on the premise that any modern macroeconomy should be modeled instead as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting individuals, acting adaptively and autonomously according to simple and empirically validated rules of thumb. We call our proposed approach Bottom-up Adaptive Macroeconomics (BAM). The reason why we claim that the contents of this book can be inscribed in the realm of macroeconomics is threefold: i) We are looking for a framework that helps us to think coherently about the interrelationships among two or more markets. In what follows, in particular, three markets will be considered: the markets for goods, labor and loanable funds. In this respect, real time matters: what happens in one market depends on what has happened, on what is happening, or on what will happen in other markets. This implies that intertemporal coordination issues cannot be ignored. ii) Eventually, it’s all about prices and quantities. However, we are mostly interested in aggregate prices and quantities, that is indexes built from the dispersed outcomes of the decentralized transactions of a large population of heterogeneous individuals. Each individual acts purposefully, but she knows anything about the levels of prices and quantities which clear markets in the aggregate. iii) In the hope of being allowed to purport scientific claims, BAM relies on the assumption that individual purposeful behaviours aggregates into regularities. Macro behaviour, however, can depart radically from what the individual units are trying to accomplish. It is in this sense that aggregate outcomes emerge from individual actions and interactions.
Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics by Paul De Grauwe Pdf
6.2 Introducing Asset Prices in the Behavioral Model -- 6.3 Simulating the Model -- 6.4 Should the Central Bank Care about Stock Prices? -- 6.5 Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability -- 6.6 The Trade-off between Output and Inflation Variability -- 6.7 Conclusion -- 7 Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.1 Fundamentalists Are Biased -- 7.2 Shocks and Trade-offs -- 7.3 Further Extensions of the Basic Model -- 7.4 Conclusion -- 8 Empirical Issues -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 The Correlation of Output Movements and Animal Spirits -- 8.3 Model Predictions: Higher Moments -- 8.4 Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks -- 8.5 Conclusion -- References -- Index
