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Author : Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 338 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2020-08-20
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0691041083
The Description for this book, Business Cycle Indicators, Volume I: Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators, will be forthcoming.
Author : Geoffrey H. Moore
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 179 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 1961
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1024424988
Author : United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 206 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 1984
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : UCD:31175021918738
Author : United States. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 1977
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : MINN:31951003051253P
Author : George Hildebrand
Publisher : Irwin Professional Publishing
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 1992
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015025262349
Author : Karl Heinrich Oppenländer
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 314 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 1997
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1859724361
The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 613 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2007-11-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226978925
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author : Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 208 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 1961
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : UOM:35128000033512
Author : Jan Jacobs
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 237 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461555919
Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.
Author : The Economist
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 226 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2011-09-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118163191
The ultimate resource for understanding and interpreting important economic figures Economic indicators are increasingly complicated to compute and comprehend. Yet in today's challenging economic environment, economic indicators are also more important than ever. This highly accessible seventh edition of the Guide to Economic Indicators presents the complicated subject of economic indicators in a conversational tone, helping readers to quickly gain an understanding of economic indicators, including why they're important, how to interpret them, and their reliability in predicting future economic performance. The book Describes how economic indicators can be manipulated to demonstrate almost any business cycle Examines how GDP, invisible balances, the terms of trade, and unemployment are used to interpret economic data Includes over ninety tables and charts Fully updated and revised, the Guide to Economic Indicators, 7th Edition is an invaluable resource for anyone searching for a clear explanation of the world's underlying economic realities.
Author : The Economist
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 258 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2011-09-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118163214
The ultimate resource for understanding and interpreting important economic figures Economic indicators are increasingly complicated to compute and comprehend. Yet in today's challenging economic environment, economic indicators are also more important than ever. This highly accessible seventh edition of the Guide to Economic Indicators presents the complicated subject of economic indicators in a conversational tone, helping readers to quickly gain an understanding of economic indicators, including why they're important, how to interpret them, and their reliability in predicting future economic performance. The book Describes how economic indicators can be manipulated to demonstrate almost any business cycle Examines how GDP, invisible balances, the terms of trade, and unemployment are used to interpret economic data Includes over ninety tables and charts Fully updated and revised, the Guide to Economic Indicators, 7th Edition is an invaluable resource for anyone searching for a clear explanation of the world's underlying economic realities.
Author : Francis X. Diebold,Glenn D. Rudebusch
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2020-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780691219585
This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Author : John B. Guerard
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2022
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 3030994198
"This book blends two important topics: 1) An interesting history of research on economic growth and business cycles from the 1900's to today, and 2) A review and application of many of the newest econometric techniques to forecasting economic growth and stock prices. The integration of these two topics produce a volume that should be interesting and useful for both academics and practitioners in the fields of economics and finance." -Martin J. Gruber, Professor Emeritus and Scholar in Residence, NYU "John Guerard should be congratulated for writing an authoritative book on business cycles and the use of cyclical indicators in their historical perspectives. It covers the contributions of giants of the field including those by Wesley Mitchell, Arthur Burns, Geoffrey Moore, and Victor Zarnowitz, highlighting the statistical aspects of the issues involved. The book will specifically be useful for economic analysts and practitioners who are in the business of tracking the economy in real time." -Kajal Lahiri, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Health Policy, Mgt., & Behavior, University at Albany: SUNY In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy. This monograph explores time series forecasting and economic cycles using the Leading Economic Indicators, LEI, which are maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given the highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, the LEI series is particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles. John B. Guerard, Jr., is a member of the McKinley Capital Management Scientific Advisory Board, where he previously served as Director of Quantitative Research in Anchorage, Alaska. John is affiliated with the Computational Finance and Risk Management Program, The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. He earned his AB in Economics from Duke University and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Texas, Austin. John serves an Associate Editor of the Journal of Investing and The International Journal of Forecasting and has published in these journals as well as Management Science, and Annals of Operations Research.
Author : United Nations
Publisher : United Nations
Page : 134 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2019-12-18
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789210045179
Leading, composite and sentiment indicators offer a powerful way of communication of statistical information and reaching out to users of statistics. The indicators can provide relevant and timely information on aspects of the economy and the social society that are not covered by other statistics. They can also provide information on complex phenomena in simple and condensed form, for instance on the current or expected economic development or on the well-being or sense of happiness of the citizens. These Guidelines provide guidance to statistical offices on their possible roles in developing and producing leading, composite and sentiment indicators and give practical and operational guidance to statistical offices that produce or consider producing these indicators. Existing examples of good practice are also referenced.
Author : Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 802 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 1961
Category : Business cycles
ISBN : STANFORD:36105020051178