Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress
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Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress? by Marcin Pietrzak Pdf
This paper shows how the role of Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) in financial surveillance can be usefully enhanced. Drawing from different statistical techniques, the paper illustrates that FSIs generate signals that can accurately detect, with 4 to 12 quarters lead, emerging financial distress—as measured by tight financial conditions.
Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises by Matias Costa Navajas,Aaron Thegeya Pdf
The paper tests the effectiveness of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) as harbingers of banking crises, using multivariate logit models to see whether FSIs, broad macroeconomic indicators, and institutional indicators can indeed predict crisis occurrences. The analysis draws upon a data set of homogeneous indicators comparable across countries over the period 2005 to 2012, leveraging the IMF’s FSI database. Results indicate significant correlation between some FSIs and the occurrence of systemic banking crises, and suggest that some indicators are precursors to the occurrence of banking crises.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 24 pages File Size : 54,9 Mb Release : 2013-11-14 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498341097
Modifications to the Current List of Financial Soundness Indicators by International Monetary Fund Pdf
The purpose of this paper is to inform Executive Directors on the outcomes of consultations conducted by the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) on revising the current list of FSIs in response to the global financial crisis and the adoption of a new regulatory framework under the Basel III Accord. In addition, the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative calls on the IMF to review the FSI list (Recommendation no. 2). STA has undertaken these consultations in close collaboration with a broad-based group of national and international experts, international standard setting bodies, IMF’s relevant departments and all FSI-reporting countries and concerned international organizations
Pilot Project on Concentration and Distribution Measures for a Selected Set of Financial Soundness Indicators by Joseph Crowley,Plapa Koukpamou,Ms.Elena Loukoianova,André Mialou Pdf
This paper reports the main findings of a pilot project launched in July 2014 by the IMF’s Statistics Department to test augmenting the IMF’s financial soundness indicators (FSIs) with concentration and distribution measures (CDMs) to capture tail risks, concentrations, variations in distributions, and the volatility of indicators over time that simple averages can miss. Volunteer participants reported a trial set of CDMs to assess analytical usefulness and identify concerns such as confidentiality and reporting burden. The results of the pilot suggests that CDMs can help detect financial sector risks, justifying the additional reporting burden but that further input from participating countries and potential data users should be sought; indeed further refinement of the reporting requirements and the CDMs themselves may be needed.
Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness by Mr.Mahinder Singh Gill,Mr.Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers,Mr.Alfredo Mario Leone,Mr.Owen Evens Pdf
Following the severe financial crises of the 1990s, identifying and assessing financial sector vulnerabilities has become a key priority of the international community. The costly disruptions in global markets underscored the need to establish a set of monitorable variables for evaluating strengths and weaknesses in financial institutions and to alert authorities of impending problems. These variables, indicators, of financial system health and stability known collectively as macroprudential indicators, are the subject of this Occasional Paper by the Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department and the Statistics Department. Macroprudential indicators take measures at both the level of aggregated financial institutions and at the macroeconomic level; financial crises often occur when weaknesses are identified in both. The authors provide a breakdown and explanations of these indicators and a review of the theoretical and empirical work done thus far. Work at other international and multilateral institutions is included as well as the experiences of several national central banks and supervisory agencies. This paper provides a valuable reference source of current knowledge about macroprudential indicators and issues related to their analysis, identification, measurement, and possible dissemination.
Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide by International Monetary Fund Pdf
Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 85 pages File Size : 41,9 Mb Release : 2019-06-24 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498321112
Canada by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 302 pages File Size : 51,6 Mb Release : 2006-04-04 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781589063853
Financial Soundness Indicators by International Monetary Fund Pdf
Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 109 pages File Size : 42,7 Mb Release : 2019-10-16 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498324021
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 92 pages File Size : 49,6 Mb Release : 2021-04-06 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781513569673
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 by International Monetary Fund Pdf
Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.
The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques,Qianying Chen,Claudio Raddatz,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Peichu Xie Pdf
We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 65 pages File Size : 54,6 Mb Release : 2019-07-15 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781498325806
Singapore by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Singapore highlights the attractiveness of Singapore as a financial center is underpinned by strong economic fundamentals, sound economic policies, and a sophisticated financial oversight framework. The financial system is exposed to global and regional macrofinancial shocks through significant trade and financial channels but appears resilient even under adverse scenarios. However, banks’ US dollar liquidity is vulnerable to stress conditions. Fintech developments so far have focused on partnerships with existing financial institutions and do not appear to contribute significantly to systemic risk. Singapore authorities should continue to enhance its strong oversight of the financial system. Strengthening the framework for resolution and safety nets, namely by devoting more resources to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’ Resolution Unit; and enhancing the oversight of MAS Electronic Payments System by ensuring more staffing resources are two other important areas for action.
Stress Testing Financial Systems by Mr.Matthew T Jones,Mr.Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers Pdf
Stress testing is becoming a widely used tool to assess potential vulnerabilities in a financial system. This booklet is intended to answer some of the basic questions that may arise as part of the process of stress testing. The pamphlet begins with a discussion of stress testing in a financial system context, highlighting some of the differences between stress tests of systems and of individual portfolios. The booklet provides an overview of the process itself, from identifying vulnerabilities, to constructing scenarios, to interpreting the results. The experience of the IMF in conducting stress testing as part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is also discussed.
Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance by El Bachir Boukherouaa,Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh,Khaled AlAjmi,Jose Deodoro,Aquiles Farias,Ebru S Iskender,Mr. Alin T Mirestean,Rangachary Ravikumar Pdf
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Financial Sector Assessment by World Bank,International Monetary Fund Pdf
The experience of many countries around the world clearly shows that while financial sector development can spur economic growth, financial fragility and instability can seriously harm growth. Following the financial crises of the late 1990s, there has been increasing interest in the systematic assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of financial systems, with the ultimate goal of formulating appropriate policies to foster financial stability, and stimulate financial sector development. Consequently, there has been an increased demand from financial sector authorities in many countries, as well as from the Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff for information on key issues, and sound practices in the assessment of financial systems, and in the design of policy responses. This Handbook of Financial Sector Assessment is a response to this demand. The Handbook presents an overall analytical framework for assessing financial system stability and developmental needs, providing broad guidance on approaches, methodologies, and techniques of assessing financial systems. Although the Handbook draws substantially on Bank and IMF experience with the financial sector assessment programs (FSAPs), and from the broader policy and operational work in both institutions, it is designed for generic use in financial sector assessments, whether conducted by country authorities themselves, or by Bank and IMF teams. It is, therefore, hoped the Handbook will serve as an authoritative source on the objectives, analytical framework, and methodologies of financial sector assessments, as well as a comprehensive reference book for training on the techniques of such assessments.
