Causal Analytics For Applied Risk Analysis

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.,Douglas A. Popken,Richard X. Sun
Publisher : Springer
Page : 588 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2018-06-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319782423

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Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox Jr.,Douglas A. Popken,Richard X. Sun Pdf

Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 443 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2023-07-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783031320132

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AI-ML for Decision and Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Pdf

This book explains and illustrates recent developments and advances in decision-making and risk analysis. It demonstrates how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have not only benefitted from classical decision analysis concepts such as expected utility maximization but have also contributed to making normative decision theory more useful by forcing it to confront realistic complexities. These include skill acquisition, uncertain and time-consuming implementation of intended actions, open-world uncertainties about what might happen next and what consequences actions can have, and learning to cope effectively with uncertain and changing environments. The result is a more robust and implementable technology for AI/ML-assisted decision-making. The book is intended to inform a wide audience in related applied areas and to provide a fun and stimulating resource for students, researchers, and academics in data science and AI-ML, decision analysis, and other closely linked academic fields. It will also appeal to managers, analysts, decision-makers, and policymakers in financial, health and safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 316 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2019-06-21
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780429642722

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The Science of Risk Analysis by Terje Aven Pdf

This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 543 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2020-11-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030573584

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Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Pdf

This book highlights quantitative risk assessment and modeling methods for assessing health risks caused by air pollution, as well as characterizing and communicating remaining uncertainties. It shows how to apply modern data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning, causal analytics, mathematical modeling, and risk analysis to better quantify human health risks caused by environmental and occupational exposures to air pollutants. The adverse health effects that are caused by air pollution, and preventable by reducing it, instead of merely being statistically associated with exposure to air pollution (and with other many conditions, from cold weather to low income) have proved to be difficult to quantify with high precision and confidence, largely because correlation is not causation. This book shows how to use recent advances in causal analytics and risk analysis to determine more accurately how reducing exposures affects human health risks. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects is divided into three parts. Part I focuses mainly on quantitative simulation modelling of biological responses to exposures and resulting health risks. It considers occupational risks from asbestos and crystalline silica as examples, showing how dynamic simulation models can provide insights into more effective policies for protecting worker health. Part II examines limitations of regression models and the potential to instead apply machine learning, causal analysis, and Bayesian network learning methods for more accurate quantitative risk assessment, with applications to occupational risks from inhalation exposures. Finally, Part III examines applications to public health risks from air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution. The book applies freely available browser analytics software and data sets that allow readers to download data and carry out many of the analyses described, in addition to applying the techniques discussed to their own data. http://cox-associates.com:8899/

Author : Amit Sharma
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 274 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2019-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781000005677

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Financial Decision-Making in the Foodservice Industry by Amit Sharma Pdf

The study of decision-making in foodservice is still a relatively new area of scholarly interest. The application of cost-benefit analysis and behavioral finance and economics in the foodservice context is rare. This volume, Financial Decision-Making in the Foodservice Industry: Economic Costs and Benefits,fills that gap and focuses on cost-benefit analysis, decision-making, behavioral finance, economic theories, and their application in foodservice and restaurant industry. The volume synthesizes these major themes by developing new theoretical foundations and presenting findings from the investigation of managerial practice. The authors cover an abundance of topical issues, including ethical obligations in foodservice, sustainability issues in the foodservice/restaurant industry, farm-to-school and local food expenditures in school foodservice settings, managerial traits and behavior in the foodservice industry, and more.

Author : Gilberto Montibeller
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 525 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2022-06-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030981327

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Decision Making for Enhanced Health Security by Gilberto Montibeller Pdf

Health threats pose significant dangers to humankind and form a major source of human suffering and sorrow. Responsible leadership and reasoned decision making can significantly improve the arenas that are affected by health threats, through establishing a better allocation of very scarce resources for building health capabilities and for increasing health preparedness, responsiveness and resilience. This book examines how public health leaders can use the cutting-edge research from Decision Sciences to better manage emerging and re-emerging health threats, with a focus on enhancing health security. While these decisions must be informed by the best available evidence, they must also address competing priorities and key uncertainties and must mitigate critical risks, albeit in a cost-effective manner which seeks to maximize societal value. This is a book about how decisions on health security can be improved, both in terms of the content that is utilized in a health decision analysis and the decision processes that are employed in reaching a decision. This decision-focused perspective can help public health leaders and public health experts to increase the health preparedness of health systems, the task of which involves improving health capabilities, increasing the robustness of health systems against health threats, as well as strengthening health resilience and the responsiveness of these systems against disease outbreaks.

Author : Johnathan Mun
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 44,5 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Risk assessment
ISBN : OCLC:1409187197

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Applied Risk Analysis by Johnathan Mun Pdf

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2013-02-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461460589

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Improving Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Pdf

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them. The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution. "Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how." Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University "Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses." Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University "Tony Cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world." Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (2011). Subcommittee on Environment
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 356 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Environmental sciences
ISBN : MINN:31951D03773094Y

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Ensuring Open Science at EPA by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (2011). Subcommittee on Environment Pdf

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Health and Medicine Division,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Roundtable on Environmental Health Sciences, Research, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 115 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2016-05-29
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309370851

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Principles and Obstacles for Sharing Data from Environmental Health Research by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Health and Medicine Division,Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice,Roundtable on Environmental Health Sciences, Research, and Medicine Pdf

On March 19, 2014, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop on the topic of the sharing of data from environmental health research. Experts in the field of environmental health agree that there are benefits to sharing research data, but questions remain regarding how to effectively make these data available. The sharing of data derived from human subjects-making them both transparent and accessible to others-raises a host of ethical, scientific, and process questions that are not always present in other areas of science, such as physics, geology, or chemistry. The workshop participants explored key concerns, principles, and obstacles to the responsible sharing of data used in support of environmental health research and policy making while focusing on protecting the privacy of human subjects and addressing the concerns of the research community. Principles and Obstacles for Sharing Data from Environmental Health Research summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 63 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2013-01-01
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780309285476

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U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Air Force Studies Board,Committee on U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment: A Workshop Pdf

Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers. A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission. The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop.

Author : Vicki M. Bier
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 192 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2017-10-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317029953

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Risk in Extreme Environments by Vicki M. Bier Pdf

Risk in Extreme Environments presents a wide-ranging discussion of approaches for assessing and managing extreme risks. Extreme events are not only severe, but also outside the normal range of experience of the system in question, and can include environmental catastrophe; engineering failure; financial or business meltdown; and nuclear or other extreme terrorism. The book focuses on synthesizing research results in a way that provides insights useful to decision makers, and enables them to ask probing questions about the risks faced by their organizations, identify creative solutions, and minimize the neglect of extreme risks that can come from a focus on mundane or ordinary management challenges. The book details case studies on nuclear power, infectious diseases, and global catastrophic risks, in addition to sections on risk assessment, risk management, and risk perceptions. Since effective management benefits from an interdisciplinary perspective, the chapter authors include experts in economics, engineering, geography, law, political science, psychology, sociology, and science in addition to risk analysis. Risk in Extreme Environments is an accessible and valuable resource for risk managers and other decision makers responsible for large complex business and government decisions, while also providing enough detail and references to be informative for risk analysts interested in learning more about technical aspects of the various methods.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 2163 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2008-09-02
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470035498

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Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment by Anonim Pdf

Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.

Author : Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2015-02-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118938898

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Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. Pdf

Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 564 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781461508472

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Risk Analysis Foundations, Models, and Methods by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. Pdf

Risk Analysis: Foundations, Models, and Methods fully addresses the questions of "What is health risk analysis?" and "How can its potentialities be developed to be most valuable to public health decision-makers and other health risk managers?" Risk analysis provides methods and principles for answering these questions. It is divided into methods for assessing, communicating, and managing health risks. Risk assessment quantitatively estimates the health risks to individuals and to groups from hazardous exposures and from the decisions or activities that create them. It applies specialized models and methods to quantify likely exposures and their resulting health risks. Its goal is to produce information to improve decisions. It does this by relating alternative decisions to their probable consequences and by identifying those decisions that make preferred outcomes more likely. Health risk assessment draws on explicit engineering, biomathematical, and statistical consequence models to describe or simulate the causal relations between actions and their probable effects on health. Risk communication characterizes and presents information about health risks and uncertainties to decision-makers and stakeholders. Risk management applies principles for choosing among alternative decision alternatives or actions that affect exposure, health risks, or their consequences.