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Author : Martha Whitesmith
Publisher : Edinburgh University Press
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2020-09-21
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781474466363
This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
Page : 344 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2020-03-05
Category : History
ISBN : 9781839743054
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Author : Riccardo Viale
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 681 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2020-12-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317330806
Herbert Simon’s renowned theory of bounded rationality is principally interested in cognitive constraints and environmental factors and influences which prevent people from thinking or behaving according to formal rationality. Simon’s theory has been expanded in numerous directions and taken up by various disciplines with an interest in how humans think and behave. This includes philosophy, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, economics, political science, sociology, management, and organization studies. The Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality draws together an international team of leading experts to survey the recent literature and the latest developments in these related fields. The chapters feature entries on key behavioural phenomena, including reasoning, judgement, decision making, uncertainty, risk, heuristics and biases, and fast and frugal heuristics. The text also examines current ideas such as fast and slow thinking, nudge, ecological rationality, evolutionary psychology, embodied cognition, and neurophilosophy. Overall, the volume serves to provide the most complete state-of-the-art collection on bounded rationality available. This book is essential reading for students and scholars of economics, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, political sciences, and philosophy.
Author : Geoffrey Ellis
Publisher : Springer
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2018-09-27
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9783319958316
This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.
Author : Richards J. Heuer
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 212 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 1999
Category : Human information processing
ISBN : IND:30000126656846
Author : Wayne Michael Hall,Gary Citrenbaum
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Page : 675 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 2009-12-22
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9798216103363
This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment.
Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 385 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2014-05-28
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781483312026
In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.
Author : Timothy Walton
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 309 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2010-08-30
Category : History
ISBN : 9780521132657
In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, first published in 2010, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis.
Author : National Research Council,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences,Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 2011-04-08
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9780309176989
The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Author : Juárez Ramos, Verónica
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 262 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2018-11-16
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9781522529798
Decision making or making judgments is an essential function in the ordinary life of any individual. Decisions can often be made easily, but sometimes, it can be difficult due to conflict, uncertainty, or ambiguity of the variables required to make the decision. As human beings, we constantly have to decide between different activities such as occupational, recreational, political, economic, etc. These decisions can be transcendental or inconsequential. Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process presents comprehensive research focusing on cognitive shortcuts in the decision-making process. While highlighting topics including jumping to conclusion bias, personality traits, and theoretical models, this book is ideally designed for mental health professionals, psychologists, sociologists, managers, academicians, researchers, and upper-level students seeking current research on cognitive biases that affect individual decision making in daily life.
Author : Dall'Acqua, Luisa,Gironacci, Irene Maria
Publisher : IGI Global
Page : 273 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2020-08-28
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781799843405
The emergence of artificial intelligence has created a vast amount of advancements within various professional sectors and has transformed the way organizations conduct themselves. The implementation of intelligent systems has assisted with developing traditional processes including decision making, risk management, and security. An area that requires significant attention and research is how these companies are becoming accustomed to computer intelligence and applying this technology to their everyday practices. Transdisciplinary Perspectives on Risk Management and Cyber Intelligence is a pivotal reference source that provides vital research on the application of intelligent systems within various professional sectors as well as the exploration of theories and empirical findings. While highlighting topics such as decision making, cognitive science, and knowledge management, this publication explores the management of risk and uncertainty using training exercises, as well as the development of managerial intelligence competency. This book is ideally designed for practitioners, educators, researchers, policymakers, managers, developers, analysts, politicians, and students seeking current research on modern approaches to the analysis and performance of cyber intelligence.
Author : Mehrdad Qorbani
Publisher : Bloomsberry
Page : 73 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2016-01-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX
"Invisible Architects: Crafting the Future of Strategic Intelligence Analysis" is a groundbreaking book that offers a deep dive into the intricate world of intelligence analysis. This comprehensive guide is designed for a diverse audience, including students of intelligence studies, professionals in the field, and anyone fascinated by the strategic shaping of global events. Key Features: Comprehensive Coverage: Explore the full spectrum of strategic intelligence analysis, from its historical roots to the cutting-edge methodologies shaping its future. Expert Insights: Benefit from the author's extensive experience and deep understanding of the field, providing readers with expert analysis and foresight. Real-World Case Studies: Engage with a variety of case studies that bring to life the successes, failures, and lessons learned in intelligence operations across different eras. Technological Evolution: Understand the impact of emerging technologies like AI, cyber intelligence, and big data analytics on the future of intelligence analysis. Ethical and Legal Frameworks: Navigate the complex ethical and legal considerations that are integral to responsible intelligence work in the modern world. Resource-Rich Appendices: Access a wealth of additional resources, including detailed case studies, technical guides, and listings of relevant conferences and workshops. What You Will Discover: - The unseen forces and 'invisible architects' behind major global events and decisions. - The evolving role of human intelligence in an increasingly digital world. - Strategies for adapting to and preparing for future challenges in global intelligence. - The balance between technological advancements and the timeless art of human analysis. - The importance of ethical considerations and legal compliance in intelligence operations. "Invisible Architects" is not just a book; it's an invitation to think critically and engage in the ever-evolving conversation that shapes our world. Whether you're a seasoned analyst or new to the field, this book will expand your understanding of the vital role intelligence plays in our global society. Review "Invisible Architects" is a masterful exploration of the complex world of strategic intelligence analysis. The author skillfully navigates through the history, evolution, and future of intelligence work, making it accessible to both professionals in the field and those new to the subject. The real-world case studies are particularly enlightening, offering a rare glimpse into the successes and failures of intelligence operations and their profound impact on global events. What sets this book apart is its comprehensive approach, seamlessly blending historical context with an insightful examination of modern technologies like AI and cyber intelligence. The chapters on ethical and legal considerations are thought-provoking, highlighting the delicate balance intelligence professionals must maintain in today's rapidly changing world. The inclusion of resource-rich appendices further enhances the book's value, providing readers with practical tools and additional learning materials. "Invisible Architects" is not just informative but also a compelling read, inviting readers to critically engage with the material and consider their role in the broader narrative of global intelligence. A must-read for anyone interested in the behind-the-scenes dynamics that shape our world.
Author : Peter M. Todd,Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 608 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2012-04-10
Category : Psychology
ISBN : 9780199717941
"More information is always better, and full information is best. More computation is always better, and optimization is best." More-is-better ideals such as these have long shaped our vision of rationality. Yet humans and other animals typically rely on simple heuristics to solve adaptive problems, focusing on one or a few important cues and ignoring the rest, and shortcutting computation rather than striving for as much as possible. In this book, we argue that in an uncertain world, more information and computation are not always better, and we ask when, and why, less can be more. The answers to these questions constitute the idea of ecological rationality: how we are able to achieve intelligence in the world by using simple heuristics matched to the environments we face, exploiting the structures inherent in our physical, biological, social, and cultural surroundings.
Author : Hugh Marshall Cole
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 754 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 1965
Category : Ardennes, Battle of the, 1944-1945
ISBN : PSU:000059701552
Author : National Research Council,Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0309317177
Every year, the U.S. Army must select from an applicant pool in the hundreds of thousands to meet annual enlistment targets, currently numbering in the tens of thousands of new soldiers. A critical component of the selection process for enlisted service members is the formal assessments administered to applicants to determine their performance potential. Attrition for the U.S. military is hugely expensive. Every recruit that does not make it through basic training or beyond a first enlistment costs hundreds of thousands of dollars. Academic and other professional settings suffer similar losses when the wrong individuals are accepted into the wrong schools and programs or jobs and companies. Picking the right people from the start is becoming increasingly important in today's economy and in response to the growing numbers of applicants. Beyond cognitive tests of ability, what other attributes should selectors be considering to know whether an individual has the talent and the capability to perform as well as the mental and psychological drive to succeed? Measuring Human Capabilities: An Agenda for Basic Research on the Assessment of Individual and Group Performance Potential for Military Accession examines promising emerging theoretical, technological, and statistical advances that could provide scientifically valid new approaches and measurement capabilities to assess human capability. This report considers the basic research necessary to maximize the efficiency, accuracy, and effective use of human capability measures in the military's selection and initial occupational assignment process. The research recommendations of Measuring Human Capabilities will identify ways to supplement the Army's enlisted soldier accession system with additional predictors of individual and collective performance. Although the primary audience for this report is the U.S. military, this book will be of interest to researchers of psychometrics, personnel selection and testing, team dynamics, cognitive ability, and measurement methods and technologies. Professionals interested in of the foundational science behind academic testing, job selection, and human resources management will also find this report of interest.