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Country Risk Assessment by Michel Henry Bouchet,Ephraim Clark,Bertrand Groslambert Pdf
One of the few books on the subject, Country Risk Assessment combines the theoretical and practical tools for managing international country risk exposure. - Offers a comprehensive discussion of the specific mechanisms that apply to country risk assessment. - Discusses various techniques associated with global investment strategy. - Presents and analyses the various sources of country risk. - Provides an in depth coverage of information sources and country risk service providers. - Gives techniques for forecasting country financial crises. - Includes practical examples and case studies. - Provides a comprehensive review of all existing methods including the techniques on the cutting-edge Market Based Approaches such as KMV, CreditMetrics, CountryMetrics and CreditRisk+.
What would you do if a law that enabled your investment to operate successfully abroad suddenly changed, and your business could no longer operate profitably there? Imagine exporting goods to a government buyer only to discover after the fact that your home country, or the United Nations, has just imposed an embargo on that country. Managing Country Risk: A Practitioner’s Guide to Effective Cross-Border Risk Analysis explains how to identify and manage the many risks associated with conducting business abroad. Daniel Wagner, an industry expert with decades of battle-tested experience, provides the real-world insight needed to think outside the box and anticipate the impact of change on your business operations. Using case studies and practical examples, it supplies essential information on country risk management and explains how these concepts apply to every day operational examples. Considering the impact of perception on investment decisions, it demonstrates how to put a country risk assessment into practice and explains how to create a framework, select the right tools, and map out a country risk analysis methodology. Appropriate for a wide audience—from individual entrepreneurs and small exporters to multinational corporations—the book provides a solid foundation in the basics of country risk analysis. It facilitates an understanding of the full range of cross-border risks and explains how to manage them. The strategies, concepts, and tools outlined in the book provide you with the understanding needed to help your organization make more-informed decisions about how it does business abroad. Practical examples and case studies provide the real-world insight needed to add value to the risk management processes in your organization and enhance your company’s ability to make a profit.
Political, Economic and Financial Country Risk by Mohamed A. Ramady Pdf
“Decades go by and nothing happens; then weeks go by and decades happen”. This apt saying encapsulates the dramatic convulsions taking place across the Arab world that first erupted in 2011 in Tunisia and which rapidly spread to other countries. These events have affected the lives of ordinary citizens in many more ways than had been intended when the ‘Arab Spring’ broke out, with the endgame still not very clear as demonstrated in countries like Egypt, Syria and Libya. By comparison, with some exceptions, the six countries comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council have been relatively unaffected by the general turbulence and uncertainties lapping around them. However, geopolitical shifts involving global superpower rivalries, combined with revolutionary breakthroughs in the non-conventional hydrocarbon energy sector are threatening to challenge the importance of the Arabian Gulf as the world’s leading suppliers of energy, putting their economies under fiscal stress. The author examines such challenges by: • Providing the first in-depth statistical analytical assessment of the GCC countries using monthly data over the period 2001 -2013 for the three risk categories- economic, financial and political risks- and their sub –components so as to enable policymakers enhance components with low risk , while addressing components with perceived higher risk, • Assessing FDI and capital inflows and outflows before and after the “Arab Spring” , and how to encourage FDI inflows, • Inter –Arab and GCC trade and synergies in power transmission , transportation links and establishing new hubs of centers of manufacturing excellence , • Exploring private sector-led growth models to reduce forecasted unemployment. Being complacent is not an option for the GCC. The aim of the book is that having a better understanding of each of the GCC countries’ individual risk parameters will enable the GCC meet future challenges and reduce the chances of a negative ‘Arab Spring’ occurring in the region. Mohamed Ramady is a Visiting Associate Professor at the Department of Finance and Economics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals. His main research interests are the economics of the Middle East and Saudi Arabia in particular, as well as money and banking He also held senior positions with international financial institutions in the Arabian Gulf and Europe.
National Risk Assessments by Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation Pdf
This report provides a synthetic view of national risk assessments (NRAs) in twenty OECD Member countries. NRA are used to support risk management decisions in a rapidly changing global risk landscape characterized by increasingly complex, interconnected societies and highly mobile people, information and goods. The report highlights good governance practices in establishing NRAs and how the results are used to inform public policy. It identifies challenges that OECD Member countries continue to confront in their efforts to implement NRA, and makes concrete recommendations where improvements could still be made.
Managing Country Risk in an Age of Globalization by Michel Henry Bouchet,Charles A. Fishkin,Amaury Goguel Pdf
This book provides an up-to-date guide to managing Country Risk. It tackles its various and interlinked dimensions including sovereign risk, socio-political risk, and macroeconomic risk for foreign investors, creditors, and domestic residents. It shows how they are accentuated in the global economy together with new risks such as terrorism, systemic risk, environmental risk, and the rising trend of global volatility and contagion. The book also assesses the limited usefulness of traditional yardsticks of Country Risk, such as ratings and rankings, which at best reflect the market consensus without predictive value and at worst amplify risk aversion and generate crisis contamination. This book goes further than comparing a wide range of risk management methods in that it provides operational and forward-looking warning signs of Country Risk. The combination of the authors’ academic and market-based backgrounds makes the book a useful tool for scholars, analysts, and practitioners.
What would you do if a law that enabled your investment to operate successfully abroad suddenly changed, and your business could no longer operate profitably there? Imagine exporting goods to a government buyer only to discover after the fact that your home country, or the United Nations, has just imposed an embargo on that country. Managing Countr
Assessing Country Risk by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja,Kevin Wiseman,Mr.Murtaza H Syed Pdf
Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
Country-Risk Analysis is a comprehensive, practical guide to the management of international risk and cross-border lending. The last fifteen years of international commercial bank lending have witnessed a classical boom-and-bust cycle. Yet it is only recently that a formalized approach to country risk assessment has been implemented in the major international banks. Ron Solberg's volume provides a state-of-the-art review of the country risk techniques that have evolved in the context of dramatic changes in developing countries' debt service capacity and in international lending itself. It deals comprehensively with sovereign credit decision making, portfolio management, lending behaviour and financial innovations.
Terrorism Risk Assessment Instruments by R. Corrado,G. Wössner,A. Merari Pdf
The search for a distinct "terrorist profile" has been going on for many years, and while it is generally agreed that nobody is born a terrorist, there is plenty of disagreement about why a person might become one. Whereas personal and situational push and pull factors can be combined to determine how and why young people become involved in terrorism, preventing an individual from following a path that ends in violence without moral restraint poses an enormous challenge, especially in an open society. This book presents papers from the NATO Advanced Research Workshop titled "A Review of the Utility of Existing Terrorism Risk Assessment Instruments and Policies: Is there the Need for Possible New Approaches?", held in Berlin, Germany, on 29-30 November 2019. Researchers were asked to present papers for discussion sessions with invited participants and practitioners from a number of NATO member and partner countries. Various assessment instruments for identifying problematic individuals at an early stage were presented by experts. It was generally agreed that, due to cultural, religious and other differences, there is no simple way to identify the relatively few high-risk individuals among the larger population of politically radicalized but not necessarily violent individuals who pose no threat. Framed by an Introduction and Conclusion, the 16 chapters in the book are divided into three parts: Theory and Risk/Threat Assessment Instrument Policy Themes; Implementation of Politically Motivated Terrorism Protocols; and Personality Traits/Disorders, Anti-State Terrorism Profiles and the DSM-5 Personality Trait Instrument. This practice-oriented book will be of interest to all those tasked with protecting society from some of its most dangerous members.
Country Risk Evaluation by Kyriaki Kosmidou,Michael Doumpos,Constantin Zopounidis Pdf
Financial globalization has increased the significance of methods used in the evaluation of country risk, one of the major research topics in economics and finance. Written by experts in the fields of multicriteria methodology, credit risk assessment, operations research, and financial management, this book develops a comprehensive framework for evaluating models based on several classification techniques that emerge from different theoretical directions. This book compares different statistical and data mining techniques, noting the advantages of each method, and introduces new multicriteria methodologies that are important to country risk modeling. This work is a useful toolkit for economists, financial managers, bank managers, operations researchers, management scientists, and risk analysts. Moreover, the book can also be used as a supplementary textbook for graduate courses in finance and financial risk management.