Credible Deterrence

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Pakistan's Nuclear Policy

Author : Zafar Khan
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 178 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2014-07-17
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781317676010

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Pakistan's Nuclear Policy by Zafar Khan Pdf

In May 1998, in reaction to India’s nuclear weapons tests, Pakistan tested six nuclear weapons. Following this, the country opted for a policy of minimum deterrence, and within a year Pakistan had altered its policy stance by adding the modifier of minimum ‘credible’ deterrence. This book looks at how this seemingly innocuous shift seriously impacted on Pakistan’s nuclear policy direction and whether the concept of minimum has lost its significance in the South Asian region’s changed/changing strategic environment. After providing a brief historical background exploring why and how Pakistan carried out the nuclear development program, the book questions why Pakistan could not sustain the minimum deterrence that it had conceptualized in the immediate aftermath of the 1998 test. It examines the conceptual theoretical framework of the essentials of minimum deterrence in order to question whether Pakistan’s nuclear policy remained consistent with this, as well as to discover the rudimentary factors that are responsible for the inconsistencies with regard to minimum deterrence conceived in this study. The book goes on to look at the policy options that Pakistan had after acquiring the nuclear capability, and what the rationale was for selecting minimum deterrence. The book not only highlights Pakistan deterrent force building, but also analyzes closely Pakistan’s doctrinal posture of first use option. Furthermore, it examines the policy towards arms control and disarmament, and discusses whether these individual policy orientations are consistent with the minimum deterrence. Conceptually providing a deeper understanding of Pakistan’s post-1998 nuclear policy, this book critically examines whether the minimum deterrence conceived could be sustained both at the theoretical and operational levels. It will be a useful contribution in the field of Nuclear Policy, Security Studies, Asian Politics, Proliferation/Non-Proliferation Studies, and Peace Studies. This book will be of interest to policy makers, scholars, and students of nuclear policy, nuclear proliferation and arms control related research.

Nuclear Deterrence Theory

Author : Robert Powell
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 248 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 1990-03-30
Category : History
ISBN : 0521375274

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Nuclear Deterrence Theory by Robert Powell Pdf

Applying advances in game theory to the study of nuclear deterrence, Robert Powell examines the foundations of deterrence theory. Game-theoretic analysis allows the author to explore some of the most complex and problematic issues in deterrence theory, including the effects of first-strike advantages, limited retaliation, and the number of nuclear powers in the international system on the dynamics of escalation.

NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020

Author : Frans Osinga,Tim Sweijs
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 538 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2020-12-03
Category : Law
ISBN : 9789462654198

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NL ARMS Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020 by Frans Osinga,Tim Sweijs Pdf

This open access volume surveys the state of the field to examine whether a fifth wave of deterrence theory is emerging. Bringing together insights from world-leading experts from three continents, the volume identifies the most pressing strategic challenges, frames theoretical concepts, and describes new strategies. The use and utility of deterrence in today’s strategic environment is a topic of paramount concern to scholars, strategists and policymakers. Ours is a period of considerable strategic turbulence, which in recent years has featured a renewed emphasis on nuclear weapons used in defence postures across different theatres; a dramatic growth in the scale of military cyber capabilities and the frequency with which these are used; and rapid technological progress including the proliferation of long-range strike and unmanned systems. These military-strategic developments occur in a polarized international system, where cooperation between leading powers on arms control regimes is breaking down, states widely make use of hybrid conflict strategies, and the number of internationalized intrastate proxy conflicts has quintupled over the past two decades. Contemporary conflict actors exploit a wider gamut of coercive instruments, which they apply across a wider range of domains. The prevalence of multi-domain coercion across but also beyond traditional dimensions of armed conflict raises an important question: what does effective deterrence look like in the 21st century? Answering that question requires a re-appraisal of key theoretical concepts and dominant strategies of Western and non-Western actors in order to assess how they hold up in today’s world. Air Commodore Professor Dr. Frans Osinga is the Chair of the War Studies Department of the Netherlands Defence Academy and the Special Chair in War Studies at the University Leiden. Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and a Research Fellow at the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy in Breda.

Nuclear India

Author : Jasjit Singh,Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 332 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : India
ISBN : UOM:39015043040495

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Nuclear India by Jasjit Singh,Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses Pdf

India s nuclear tests on May 11 & 13,1998 ended the country s three decade old, self-imposed restraint on its emergence as a nuclear power. India announced that it was now a nuclear weapon state. A new phase in India s security calculus, therefore, has begun. This volume attempts to explore and explain the whole range of issues related to Nuclearisation, in order to extrapolate logical policy positions that the country would need to evolve at various levels.

Pakistan's Nuclear Policy

Author : Zafar Khan
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 179 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2014-07-17
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781317676003

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Pakistan's Nuclear Policy by Zafar Khan Pdf

In May 1998, in reaction to India’s nuclear weapons tests, Pakistan tested six nuclear weapons. Following this, the country opted for a policy of minimum deterrence, and within a year Pakistan had altered its policy stance by adding the modifier of minimum ‘credible’ deterrence. This book looks at how this seemingly innocuous shift seriously impacted on Pakistan’s nuclear policy direction and whether the concept of minimum has lost its significance in the South Asian region’s changed/changing strategic environment. After providing a brief historical background exploring why and how Pakistan carried out the nuclear development program, the book questions why Pakistan could not sustain the minimum deterrence that it had conceptualized in the immediate aftermath of the 1998 test. It examines the conceptual theoretical framework of the essentials of minimum deterrence in order to question whether Pakistan’s nuclear policy remained consistent with this, as well as to discover the rudimentary factors that are responsible for the inconsistencies with regard to minimum deterrence conceived in this study. The book goes on to look at the policy options that Pakistan had after acquiring the nuclear capability, and what the rationale was for selecting minimum deterrence. The book not only highlights Pakistan deterrent force building, but also analyzes closely Pakistan’s doctrinal posture of first use option. Furthermore, it examines the policy towards arms control and disarmament, and discusses whether these individual policy orientations are consistent with the minimum deterrence. Conceptually providing a deeper understanding of Pakistan’s post-1998 nuclear policy, this book critically examines whether the minimum deterrence conceived could be sustained both at the theoretical and operational levels. It will be a useful contribution in the field of Nuclear Policy, Security Studies, Asian Politics, Proliferation/Non-Proliferation Studies, and Peace Studies. This book will be of interest to policy makers, scholars, and students of nuclear policy, nuclear proliferation and arms control related research.

Deterrence in the 21st Century

Author : Max G. Manwaring
Publisher : Psychology Press
Page : 160 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2001
Category : History
ISBN : 0714651338

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Deterrence in the 21st Century by Max G. Manwaring Pdf

This anthology argues that facing the diverse threats in the 'new world disorder' requires a new look and new approaches. The requirement is to establish that contemporary deterrence demands replacing the old 'nuclear theology' with new policy and strategy to deal with the myriad state, non-state, and trans-national nuclear and non-nuclear menaces that have heretofore been ignored or wished away.

Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence

Author : National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Naval Studies Board
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 243 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1997-04-02
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780309175104

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Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence by National Research Council,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications,Naval Studies Board Pdf

Deterrence as a strategic concept evolved during the Cold War. During that period, deterrence strategy was aimed mainly at preventing aggression against the United States and its close allies by the hostile Communist power centersâ€"the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and its allies, Communist China and North Korea. In particular, the strategy was devised to prevent aggression involving nuclear attack by the USSR or China. Since the end of the Cold War, the risk of war among the major powers has subsided to the lowest point in modern history. Still, the changing nature of the threats to American and allied security interests has stimulated a considerable broadening of the deterrence concept. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a post-Cold War deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. It further examines the significance of these findings for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. Quantitative and qualitative measures to support judgments about the potential success or failure of deterrence are identified. Such measures will bear on the suitability of the naval forces to meet the deterrence objectives. The capabilities of U.S. naval forces that especially bear on the deterrence objectives also are examined. Finally, the book examines the utility of models, games, and simulations as decision aids in improving the naval forces' understanding of situations in which deterrence must be used and in improving the potential success of deterrence actions.

Deterrence and the New Global Security Environment

Author : Ian R. Kenyon,John Simpson
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 243 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2013-10-18
Category : History
ISBN : 9781134730384

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Deterrence and the New Global Security Environment by Ian R. Kenyon,John Simpson Pdf

This collection of papers rigorously examines the current place of deterrence in international security relations, delivering the best of contemporary thinking. This is a special issue of the leading journal Contemporary Security Policy. It shows how and why nuclear deterrence was the central organizing mechanism for international security relations in the second half of the twentieth century. It has been replaced by a new global security environment in which the central role of deterrence, both nuclear and otherwise, appears to have diminished. The Cold War has been succeeded by a new state of play. This book will be of interest to students of military and naval history and security studies.

Nuclear Strategy

Author : Manpreet Sethi
Publisher : K W Publishers Pvt Limited
Page : 395 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : History
ISBN : 818796670X

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Nuclear Strategy by Manpreet Sethi Pdf

This Book Provides Pointers On How India S Nuclear Strategy, In The Prevailing Security Environment, Should Put Together The Building Blocks Of Credible Deterrence In Order To Minimise, If Not Remove, The Chance Of Nuclear Use. It Assesses Contemporary Nuclear Thinking, Doctrines And Capabilities Of Nuclear Weapon States; Examines The Command And Control Structures Of Pakistan, China And India To Offer Recommendations; Discusses How To Make India S Arsenal Survivable; Debates The Relevance Of Ballistic Missile Defence; Highlights The Overlap Between India S Nuclear Energy And Strategic Programmes; Studies The Complex Challenge Of Conventional War In The Presence Of Nuclear Weapons; And Explains Why And How India Should Pursue Universal Nuclear Disarmament.

Minimum Deterrence and India's Nuclear Security

Author : Rajesh M. Basrur
Publisher : NUS Press
Page : 264 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Deterrence (Strategy)
ISBN : 9971694441

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Minimum Deterrence and India's Nuclear Security by Rajesh M. Basrur Pdf

In this book, the leading authority on India's nuclear program offers an informed and thoughtful assessment of India's nuclear strategy. Basrur shows that the country's nuclear culture is generally in accord with the principle of minimum deterrence but sometimes drifts into a more open-ended view.

The Return of Deterrence

Author : William G. Braun (III),Stéfanie Von Hlatky,Kim Richard Nossal
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 113 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2019
Category : Deterrence (Strategy)
ISBN : 1553396111

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The Return of Deterrence by William G. Braun (III),Stéfanie Von Hlatky,Kim Richard Nossal Pdf

What are the implications of re-emphasizing deterrence in defense policy? What is the appropriate balance of capabilities and political commitments to restore a credible defense posture while keeping the door open for constructive dialogue with Moscow and Beijing? In Western Europe, NATO's defense capabilities must be able to both deter adversaries and reassure allies. Canada, along with the United States, Germany and the UK, has become lead nation for one of the four battlegroups in the Baltics and Poland. Yet even with NATO's enhanced forward presence, it is not yet clear what deterrence will entail: is it a return to the Cold War or is deterrence in a more hybrid conflict environment fundamentally different? What is the respective importance of conventional forces, nuclear weapons and missile defense in upholding deterrence and reassurance? Those questions--and others--were addressed by panelists and presenters at KCIS 2018.

Understanding Deterrence

Author : Keith B. Payne
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 136 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2014-06-11
Category : History
ISBN : 9781317980308

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Understanding Deterrence by Keith B. Payne Pdf

For decades, the rational actor model served as the preferred guide for U.S. deterrence policy. It has been a convenient and comforting guide because it requires little detailed knowledge of an opponent’s unique decision-making process and yet typically provides confident generalizations about how deterrence works. The model tends to postulate common decision-making parameters across the globe to reach generalizations about how deterrence will function and the types of forces that will be "stabilizing" or "destabilizing." Yet a broad spectrum of unique factors can influence an opponent’s perceptions and his calculations, and these are not easily captured by the rational actor model. The absence of uniformity means there can be very few deterrence generalizations generated by the use of the rational actor model that are applicable to the entire range of opponents. Understanding Deterrence considers how factors such as psychology, history, religion, ideology, geography, political structure, culture, proliferation and geopolitics can shape a leadership’s decision-making process, in ways that are specific and unique to each opponent. Understanding Deterrence demonstrates how using a multidisciplinary approach to deterrence analysis can better identify and assess factors that influence an opponent’s decision-making process. This identification and assessment process can facilitate the tailoring of deterrence strategies to specific purposes and result in a higher likelihood of success than strategies guided by the generalizations about opponent decision-making typically contained in the rational actor model. This book was published as a special issue of Comparative Strategy.

The Dynamics of Deterrence

Author : Frank C. Zagare
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 220 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 1987
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0226977633

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The Dynamics of Deterrence by Frank C. Zagare Pdf

The value of a theory of deterrence lies in its ability to reconstruct and predict strategic behavior accurately and consistently. Contemporary scholarship on deterrence has drawn upon decision models and classical game theory, with some success, to explain how deterrence works. But the field is marked by unconnected and sometimes contradictory hypotheses that may explain one type of situation while being inapplicable to another. The Dynamics of Deterrence is the first comprehensive treatment of deterrence theory since the mid-1960s. Frank C. Zagare introduces a new theoretical framework for deterrence that is rigorous, consistent, and illuminating. By placing the deterrence relationship in a "theory of moves" framework, Zagare is able to remedy the defects of other models. His approach is illustrated by and applied to a number of complex deterrence situations: the Berlin crisis of 1948, the Middle East crises of 1967 and 1973, and The Falkland/Malvinas crisis of 1980. He also examines the strategic relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union from 1945 to the present. Zagare studies the dynamics of both mutual and unilateral deterrence games in nuclear and non-nuclear situations, and the impact of credibility, capability, and power asymmetries on deterrence stability. He shows that his theory is applicable for analyzing deterrence situations between allies as well as between hostile states. One of the additional strengths of his model, however, is its general usefulness for other levels and settings, such as deterrence games played by husband and wife, parent and child, employer and employee, and the state and its citizens. With its lucid prose and illustrative examples, The Dynamics of Deterrence will be of interest to a wide audience in international relations, peace studies, and political science.

Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics

Author : Sergey Smolnikov
Publisher : Springer
Page : 315 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2018-05-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783319718859

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Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics by Sergey Smolnikov Pdf

This book seeks to answer one main question: what is the core concern of great powers that streamlines their behavior in the contemporary system of international relations? Building on the examples of the United States, China, Russia, France, and Britain, it tracks both consistency and fluctuations in global power dynamics and great power behavior. The author examines the genesis, causality, and policy implications of decision makers’ fixation with retaining a credible image of power in world politics, while exploring how the dynamics of power distribution in international systems modify perceptions of primacy. Drawing on findings from disciplines such as history, economics, social and political psychology, communication theory, philosophy, political science, strategic studies, and above all, from International Relations theory and practice, the volume proposes a novel theory of power credibility, which offers an original explanation of great powers’ behavior at the stage of their relative decline.

Perfect Deterrence

Author : Frank C. Zagare,D. Marc Kilgour
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 446 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2000-09-21
Category : History
ISBN : 0521787130

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Perfect Deterrence by Frank C. Zagare,D. Marc Kilgour Pdf

The first general analysis of deterrence since the Cold War, using game theory and containing numerous historical examples.