Crude Volatility

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Crude Volatility

Robert McNally
Crude Volatility Book PDF

Author : Robert McNally
Publisher : Columbia University Press
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2017-01-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780231543682

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Crude Volatility by Robert McNally Pdf

As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

The Vega Factor

Kent Moors
The Vega Factor Book PDF

Author : Kent Moors
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 324 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2011-04-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118077092

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The Vega Factor by Kent Moors Pdf

How oil volatility is affecting the global political scene, and where the oil market is heading The world is rapidly moving towards an oil environment defined by volatility. The Vega Factor: Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis takes an in-depth look at the most important topics in the industry, including strategic risk, why traditional pricing mechanisms will no longer govern the market, and how the current government approaches have only worsened an already bad situation. Details the industry's players, including companies, traders, and governments Describes the priorities that will need to be revised, and the policies needed to achieve stability Explains how today's oil market is fundamentally different from the pre-crisis market Oil prices affect everyone. The Vega Factor explains the new international oil environment of increasing consolidation and decreasing competition, and reveals how consumers and investors can navigate price volatility and new government policies.

Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy

Matthias Kalkuhl,Joachim von Braun,Maximo Torero
Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy Book PDF

Author : Matthias Kalkuhl,Joachim von Braun,Maximo Torero
Publisher : Springer
Page : 626 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2016-04-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319282015

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Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by Matthias Kalkuhl,Joachim von Braun,Maximo Torero Pdf

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation

Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation Book PDF

Author : Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2014-12-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498333481

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Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation by Samya Beidas-Strom,Mr.Andrea Pescatori Pdf

How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Oil in the Sea III

National Research Council,Transportation Research Board,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Marine Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Oil in the Sea: Inputs, Fates, and Effects
Oil in the Sea III Book PDF

Author : National Research Council,Transportation Research Board,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Marine Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Oil in the Sea: Inputs, Fates, and Effects
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 278 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2003-03-14
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780309084383

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Oil in the Sea III by National Research Council,Transportation Research Board,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Marine Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Oil in the Sea: Inputs, Fates, and Effects Pdf

Since the early 1970s, experts have recognized that petroleum pollutants were being discharged in marine waters worldwide, from oil spills, vessel operations, and land-based sources. Public attention to oil spills has forced improvements. Still, a considerable amount of oil is discharged yearly into sensitive coastal environments. Oil in the Sea provides the best available estimate of oil pollutant discharge into marine waters, including an evaluation of the methods for assessing petroleum load and a discussion about the concerns these loads represent. Featuring close-up looks at the Exxon Valdez spill and other notable events, the book identifies important research questions and makes recommendations for better analysis ofâ€"and more effective measures againstâ€"pollutant discharge. The book discusses: Inputâ€"where the discharges come from, including the role of two-stroke engines used on recreational craft. Behavior or fateâ€"how oil is affected by processes such as evaporation as it moves through the marine environment. Effectsâ€"what we know about the effects of petroleum hydrocarbons on marine organisms and ecosystems. Providing a needed update on a problem of international importance, this book will be of interest to energy policy makers, industry officials and managers, engineers and researchers, and advocates for the marine environment.

Oil 101

Morgan Downey
Oil 101 Book PDF

Author : Morgan Downey
Publisher : WOODEN TABLE PressLLC
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 41,7 Mb
Release : 2009
Category : Petroleum as fuel
ISBN : 0982039204

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Oil 101 by Morgan Downey Pdf

"Since 1859, oil has enabled and defined our economic, social and political landscape. Throughout this time, abundant supply ensured low, stable prices and the inner workings of the oil industry remained relatively obscure. Following a century and a half of relative calm, oil prices have become much more volatile as the sustainability and growth of reliable supply sources have been brought into question. This book provides a guide to oil; from its history, to sources of supply and drivers of demand; from how prices are determined daily in global wholesale oil markets, to how those markets are connected to prices at the pump." -- Book jacket.

Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation

Samya Beidas-Strom,Andrea Pescatori
Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation Book PDF

Author : Samya Beidas-Strom,Andrea Pescatori
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2014-12-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498303842

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Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation by Samya Beidas-Strom,Andrea Pescatori Pdf

How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Oil Spills on Other Commodities

John Baffes
Oil Spills on Other Commodities Book PDF

Author : John Baffes
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Commercial products
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Oil Spills on Other Commodities by John Baffes Pdf

Abstract: This paper examines the effect of crude oil prices on the prices of 35 internationally traded primary commodities for the 1960-2005 period. It finds that the pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overall non-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregated level, the fertilizer index had the highest pass-through (0.33), followed by agriculture (0.17), and metals (0.11). The prices of precious metals also exhibited a strong response to the crude oil price. In terms of individual commodities, the estimates of the food group exhibited remarkable similarity while those of raw materials and metals gave a mixed picture. The implication is that if crude oil prices remain high for some time, as most analysts expect, then the recent commodity price boom is likely to last much longer than earlier booms, at least for food commodities. The other commodities, however, are likely to follow diverging paths. On the methodological side, the results show that price indices, while providing useful summary statistics, need to be supplemented by individual commodity analysis.

Spills of Diluted Bitumen from Pipelines

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology,Committee on the Effects of Diluted Bitumen on the Environment
Spills of Diluted Bitumen from Pipelines Book PDF

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology,Committee on the Effects of Diluted Bitumen on the Environment
Publisher : National Academies Press
Page : 167 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2016-03-22
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9780309380102

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Spills of Diluted Bitumen from Pipelines by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology,Committee on the Effects of Diluted Bitumen on the Environment Pdf

Diluted bitumen has been transported by pipeline in the United States for more than 40 years, with the amount increasing recently as a result of improved extraction technologies and resulting increases in production and exportation of Canadian diluted bitumen. The increased importation of Canadian diluted bitumen to the United States has strained the existing pipeline capacity and contributed to the expansion of pipeline mileage over the past 5 years. Although rising North American crude oil production has resulted in greater transport of crude oil by rail or tanker, oil pipelines continue to deliver the vast majority of crude oil supplies to U.S. refineries. Spills of Diluted Bitumen from Pipelines examines the current state of knowledge and identifies the relevant properties and characteristics of the transport, fate, and effects of diluted bitumen and commonly transported crude oils when spilled in the environment. This report assesses whether the differences between properties of diluted bitumen and those of other commonly transported crude oils warrant modifications to the regulations governing spill response plans and cleanup. Given the nature of pipeline operations, response planning, and the oil industry, the recommendations outlined in this study are broadly applicable to other modes of transportation as well.

Understanding Oil Prices

Salvatore Carollo
Understanding Oil Prices Book PDF

Author : Salvatore Carollo
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 212 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 2011-11-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781119962908

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Understanding Oil Prices by Salvatore Carollo Pdf

It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.

The Oil Curse

Michael L. Ross
The Oil Curse Book PDF

Author : Michael L. Ross
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 314 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2013-09-08
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780691159638

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The Oil Curse by Michael L. Ross Pdf

Countries that are rich in petroleum have less democracy, less economic stability, and more frequent civil wars than countries without oil. What explains this oil curse? And can it be fixed? In this groundbreaking analysis, Michael L. Ross looks at how developing nations are shaped by their mineral wealth--and how they can turn oil from a curse into a blessing. Ross traces the oil curse to the upheaval of the 1970s, when oil prices soared and governments across the developing world seized control of their countries' oil industries. Before nationalization, the oil-rich countries looked much like the rest of the world; today, they are 50 percent more likely to be ruled by autocrats--and twice as likely to descend into civil war--than countries without oil. The Oil Curse shows why oil wealth typically creates less economic growth than it should; why it produces jobs for men but not women; and why it creates more problems in poor states than in rich ones. It also warns that the global thirst for petroleum is causing companies to drill in increasingly poor nations, which could further spread the oil curse. This landmark book explains why good geology often leads to bad governance, and how this can be changed.

Volatility of Oil Prices

Mr.Peter Wickham
Volatility of Oil Prices Book PDF

Author : Mr.Peter Wickham
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 1996-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451954722

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Volatility of Oil Prices by Mr.Peter Wickham Pdf

This paper examines the behavior of crude oil prices since 1980, and in particular the volatility of these prices. The empirical analysis covers “spot” prices for one of the key internationally traded crudes, namely Dated Brent Blend. A GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, which allows the conditional variance to be time-variant, is estimated for the period which includes the oil price slump of 1986 and the surge in prices in 1990 as a result of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The paper also discusses the growth of futures and derivative markets and the dynamic links between spot and futures markets.

Research on the Volatility of Oil Futures and European Stock Markets

Dexiang Mei,Wang Chen
Research on the Volatility of Oil Futures and European Stock Markets Book PDF

Author : Dexiang Mei,Wang Chen
Publisher : Scientific Research Publishing, Inc.
Page : 165 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2020-08-13
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
ISBN : 9781618969811

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Research on the Volatility of Oil Futures and European Stock Markets by Dexiang Mei,Wang Chen Pdf

The volatility has been one of the cores of the financial theory research, in addition to the futures market is an important part of modern financial markets, the futures market volatility is an important part of the theory of financial markets research.

The Logical Trader

Mark B. Fisher
The Logical Trader Book PDF

Author : Mark B. Fisher
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 286 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2002-07-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0471215511

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The Logical Trader by Mark B. Fisher Pdf

An in-depth look at the trading system that anyone can use The Logical Trader presents a highly effective, yet simple trading methodology that any trader anywhere can use to trade almost anything. The "ACD Method" developed and refined by Mark Fisher after many years of successful trading, provides price points at which to buy and sell as determined by the opening range of virtually any stock or commodity. This comprehensive guide details a widely used system that is profitably implemented by many computer and floor traders at major New York exchanges. The author's highly accessible teaching style provides readers of The Logical Trader with a full examination of the theory behind the ACD Method and the examples and real-world trading stories involving it. Mark B. Fisher (New York, NY), an independent trader, is founder of MBF Clearing Corp., the largest clearing firm on the NYMEX. Founded in 1988, MBF Clearing has grown from handling under one percent of the volume on the NYMEX to nearly twenty percent of the trades today. A 1982 summa cum laude graduate from the Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania, Fisher also received his master's degree in finance and accounting from Wharton. New technology and the advent of around the clock trading have opened the floodgates to both foreign and domestic markets. Traders need the wisdom of industry veterans and the vision of innovators in today's volatile financial marketplace. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market's ever changing temperament and have prospered-some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future.

Oil Price Uncertainty

Apostolos Serletis
Oil Price Uncertainty Book PDF

Author : Apostolos Serletis
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated
Page : 142 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9814390674

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Oil Price Uncertainty by Apostolos Serletis Pdf

The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.