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Decisions with Multiple Objectives by Ralph L. Keeney,Howard Raiffa Pdf
This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.
Multi-objective Decision Analysis by Clinton W. Brownley Pdf
Whether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.
Multi-Objective Decision Making by Diederik M. Zhou,Shimon Hamilton Pdf
Many real-world decision problems have multiple objectives. For example, when choosing a medical treatment plan, we want to maximize the efficacy of the treatment, but also minimize the side effects. These objectives typically conflict, e.g., we can often increase the efficacy of the treatment, but at the cost of more severe side effects. In this book, we outline how to deal with multiple objectives in decision-theoretic planning and reinforcement learning algorithms. To illustrate this, we employ the popular problem classes of multi-objective Markov decision processes (MOMDPs) and multi-objective coordination graphs (MO-CoGs). First, we discuss different use cases for multi-objective decision making, and why they often necessitate explicitly multi-objective algorithms. We advocate a utility-based approach to multi-objective decision making, i.e., that what constitutes an optimal solution to a multi-objective decision problem should be derived from the available information about user utility. We show how different assumptions about user utility and what types of policies are allowed lead to different solution concepts, which we outline in a taxonomy of multi-objective decision problems. Second, we show how to create new methods for multi-objective decision making using existing single-objective methods as a basis. Focusing on planning, we describe two ways to creating multi-objective algorithms: in the inner loop approach, the inner workings of a single-objective method are adapted to work with multi-objective solution concepts; in the outer loop approach, a wrapper is created around a single-objective method that solves the multi-objective problem as a series of single-objective problems. After discussing the creation of such methods for the planning setting, we discuss how these approaches apply to the learning setting. Next, we discuss three promising application domains for multi-objective decision making algorithms: energy, health, and infrastructure and transportation. Finally, we conclude by outlining important open problems and promising future directions.
Value-Focused Thinking by Ralph L. KEENEY,Ralph L Keeney Pdf
This text argues that in decision-making a focus should be placed on the bottom-line objectives that give it its meaning. It states that through recognizing and articulating fundamental values, better decision opportunities can be identified, thereby creating better alternatives.
Multiple Criteria Decision Making Theory and Application by G. Fandel,T. Gal Pdf
He consider a cone dominance problem: given a "preference" cone lP and a set n X ~ R of available, or feasible, alternatives, the problem is to identify the non dominated elements of X. The nonzero elements of lP are assumed to model the do- nance structure of the problem so that y s X dominates x s X if Y = x + P for some nonzero p S lP. Consequently, x S X is nondominated if, and only if, ({x} + lP) n X = {x} (1.1) He will also refer to nondominated points as efficient points (in X with respect to lP) and we will let EF(XJP) denote the set of such efficient points. This cone dominance problem draws its roots from two separate, but related, ori gins. The first of these is multi-attribute decision making in which the elements of the set X are endowed with various attributes, each to be maximized or minimized.
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Water Science and Technology Board,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Geological and Geotechnical Engineering,Committee on Long-Term Management of the Spirit Lake/Toutle River System in Southwest Washington
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Water Science and Technology Board,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Geological and Geotechnical Engineering,Committee on Long-Term Management of the Spirit Lake/Toutle River System in Southwest Washington Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 337 pages File Size : 53,8 Mb Release : 2018-04-29 Category : Nature ISBN : 9780309464444
A Decision Framework for Managing the Spirit Lake and Toutle River System at Mount St. Helens by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education,Board on Environmental Change and Society,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Water Science and Technology Board,Board on Earth Sciences and Resources,Committee on Geological and Geotechnical Engineering,Committee on Long-Term Management of the Spirit Lake/Toutle River System in Southwest Washington Pdf
The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens in southwest Washington State radically changed the physical and socio-economic landscapes of the region. The eruption destroyed the summit of the volcano, sending large amounts of debris into the North Fork Toutle River, and blocking the sole means of drainage from Spirit Lake 4 miles north of Mount St. Helens. As a result of the blockage, rising lake levels could cause failure of the debris blockage, putting the downstream population of approximately 50,000 at risk of catastrophic flooding and mud flows. Further, continued transport of sediment to the river from volcanic debris deposits surrounding the mountain reduces the flood carrying capacity of downstream river channels and leaves the population vulnerable to chronic flooding. The legacy of the 1980 eruption and the prospect of future volcanic, seismic, and flood events mean that risk management in the Spirit Lake Toutle River system will be challenging for decades to come. This report offers a decision framework to support the long-term management of risks related to the Spirit Lake and Toutle River system in light of the different regional economic, cultural, and social priorities, and the respective roles of federal, tribal, state, and local authorities, as well as other entities and groups in the region. It also considers the history and adequacy of characterization, monitoring, and management associated with the Spirit Lake debris blockage and outflow tunnel, other efforts to control transport of water and sediment from the 1980 and later eruptions, and suggests additional information needed to support implementation of the recommended decision framework.
Decision By Objectives: How To Convince Others That You Are Right by Ernest Forman,Mary Ann Selly Pdf
Decision-making is a process of choosing from possible courses of action in order to attain goals and objectives. Nobel laureate Herbert Simon wrote that the whole process of managerial decision-making is synonymous with the practice of management. Decision-making is at the core of all managerial functions. Planning, for example, involves the following decisions: What should be done? When? How? Where? By whom? Other managerial functions, such as organizing, implementing, and controlling, rely heavily on decision-making.Decision by Objectives is an invaluable book about the art and science of decision-making. It presents a very practical approach to decision-making that has a sound theoretical foundation, known as the analytic hierarchy process. Intended for both the student and the professional, the book includes approaches to prioritizing, evaluating alternative courses of action, forecasting, and allocating resources. By focusing on objectives rather than alternatives alone, it shows the reader how to synthesize information from multiple sources, analyses, and perspectives. The methods presented have been gaining popularity throughout the world.
Decision Making with Multiple Objectives by Yacov Y. Haimes,Vira Chankong Pdf
The Sixth International Multiple-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Conference is one of a biennial series that serve as a forum for exchange of the latest information and new developments in this rapidly growing field. Participants are carefully chosen from among scholars and practitioners so that widely ranging perspectives and disciplines are represented; this insures the dissemination of valuable new know ledge to those scholars, policy-makers and industrial analysts who will best utilize and share it, both in developed and in third-world countries. The Sixth Internaitona1 MCDM Conference was held from June 4 to 8, 1984, at Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio. The Conference program reflects the evolution of the field from infancy through adolescence to maturity, as marked by the progression from single-objective modeling and optimization to multiple-objective deci sion making. Because the theoreticians, practitioners and students who attend these MCDM conferences necessarily have different needs and expectations, the program now offers fewer monologues and more panels, overview papers and tutorial sessions, focusing on case studies and other practical experiences.
David E. Bell,Ralph L. Keeney,Howard Raiffa,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Author : David E. Bell,Ralph L. Keeney,Howard Raiffa,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Publisher : John Wiley & Sons Page : 466 pages File Size : 49,9 Mb Release : 1977 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : STANFORD:36105030284819
Conflicting Objectives in Decisions by David E. Bell,Ralph L. Keeney,Howard Raiffa,International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Pdf
Multicriterion decision problems; Partial preference analysis and decision-aid: the fuzzy outranking relation concepts; A research project on multicriterion decision making; Use of vector optimization in multiobjective decision making; Trade-off analysis: the indifference and the preferred proportions approaches; Conjoint measurement: a brief survey; Multiattribute utilities in expected utility theory; A practical methodology of solving multicriterion problems with subjective criteria; On the elicitation of preference: descriptive and prescriptive considerations; A dynamic consumption model and optimization of utility functionals;
Data Envelopment Analysis and Effective Performance Assessment by Lotfi, Farhad Hossein Zadeh,Najafi, Seyed Esmaeil,Nozari, Hamed Pdf
For any organization, analysis of performance and effectiveness through available data allows for informed decision making. Data envelopment analysis, or DEA, is a popular, effective method that can be used to measure productive efficiency in operations management assessment. Data Envelopment Analysis and Effective Performance Assessment addresses the myriad of practical uses and innovative developments of DEA. Emphasizing the importance of analyzing productivity by measuring inputs, goals, economic growth, and performance, this book covers a wide breadth of innovative knowledge. This book is essential reading for managers, business professionals, students of business and ICT, and computer engineers.
Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Industrial Engineering by Gerald William Evans Pdf
This textbook presents methodologies and applications associated with multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), especially for those students with an interest in industrial engineering. With respect to methodology, the book covers (1) problem structuring methods; (2) methods for ranking multi-dimensional deterministic outcomes including multiattribute value theory, the analytic hierarchy process, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and outranking techniques; (3) goal programming,; (4) methods for describing preference structures over single and multi-dimensional probabilistic outcomes (e.g., utility functions); (5) decision trees and influence diagrams; (6) methods for determining input probability distributions for decision trees, influence diagrams, and general simulation models; and (7) the use of simulation modeling for decision analysis. This textbook also offers: · Easy to follow descriptions of how to apply a wide variety of MCDA techniques · Specific examples involving multiple objectives and/or uncertainty/risk of interest to industrial engineers · A section on outranking techniques ; this group of techniques, which is popular in Europe, is very rarely mentioned as a methodology for MCDA in the United States · A chapter on simulation as a useful tool for MCDA, including ranking & selection procedures. Such material is rarely covered in courses in decision analysis · Both material review questions and problems at the end of each chapter . Solutions to the exercises are found in the Solutions Manual which will be provided along with PowerPoint slides for each chapter. The methodologies are demonstrated through the use of applications of interest to industrial engineers, including those involving product mix optimization, supplier selection, distribution center location and transportation planning, resource allocation and scheduling of a medical clinic, staffing of a call center, quality control, project management, production and inventory control,and so on. Specifically, industrial engineering problems are structured as classical problems in multiple criteria decision analysis, and the relevant methodologies are demonstrated.
