Devaluation Crises And The Macroeconomic Consequences Of Postponed Adjustment In Developing Countries

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 38 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 1989-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451925845

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Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries by International Monetary Fund Pdf

This paper develops a small analytical model to explore the relationship between the dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment and the timing of the implementation of an adjustment program featuring a nominal devaluation. The effects of postponing adjustment depend on the source of the original shock. In the case of a fiscal expansion, postponement implies a larger eventual devaluation and greater deviations of macroeconomic variables from their steady-state values. For adverse terms of trade shocks, postponement does not affect the size of the eventual devaluation, but does magnify the degree of post-devaluation overshooting by key macroeconomic variables.

Author : Sebastian Edwards,Peter Montiel
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 1989
Category : Devaluation of currency
ISBN : IND:30000054079938

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Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries by Sebastian Edwards,Peter Montiel Pdf

This paper develops our analytical model to explore the relationship between the dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment and the timing of the implementation of an adjustment program featuring an official devaluation. The effects of postponing adjustment depend on the source of the original shock, In the case of fiscal expansion, postponement implies a larger eventual official devaluation and greater deviations of macroeconomic variables from their steady-state values. For adverse terms of trade shocks, postponement does not affect the size of the eventual official devaluation, but does magnify the amount of post-devaluation overshooting by key macroeconomic variables.

Author : S. Charusheela
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 269 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 2013-09-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135409760

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Structuralism and Individualism in Economic Analysis by S. Charusheela Pdf

This book argues that the debates about the appropriate economic policies to follow in the developing world within the field of development economics are at heart debates about the appropriate ontology to ascribe to agents within the developing world.

Author : Olumuyiwa Samson Adedeji,Handa Jagdish,Alexander Bilson Darku
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 184 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351147620

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The Balance of Payments Analysis of Developing Economies by Olumuyiwa Samson Adedeji,Handa Jagdish,Alexander Bilson Darku Pdf

Developing countries - given their extreme economic vulnerability - are likely to be better served by maintaining flexible exchange rate regimes. That is the finding of this informative and enlightening book. Presenting unique theoretical and econometric analysis of the current account of the balance of payments of Nigeria and Ghana, this book examines the features common to the economic position of developing countries (such as recurring deficits and continual increases in external debt). The book presents a number of new theoretical modifications to the standard version of the value model of the current account, in order to reflect the major characteristics of developing economies. The book also uses rigorous econometric analyses to determine the validity of theoretical models, and examines the sustainability of these various countries' current account deficits.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 216 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 1998-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451974515

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IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 1 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

This paper analyzes some leading indicators of currency crises, and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, and the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood,Ms.Nancy P. Marion
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 52 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 1998-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451855166

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Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature by Mr.Robert P. Flood,Ms.Nancy P. Marion Pdf

In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

Author : Guillermo A. Calvo,Rudiger Dornbusch,Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 572 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262532603

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Money, Capital Mobility, and Trade by Guillermo A. Calvo,Rudiger Dornbusch,Maurice Obstfeld Pdf

Essays by leading economists and scholars reflecting on Mundell's broad influence on modern open-economy macroeconomics.

Author : Pierre-Richard Agénor,Peter J. Montiel
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 792 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2015-06-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781400866267

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Development Macroeconomics by Pierre-Richard Agénor,Peter J. Montiel Pdf

The global financial crisis triggered severe shocks for developing countries, whose embrace of greater commercial and financial openness has increased their exposure to external shocks, both real and financial. This new edition of Development Macroeconomics has been fully revised to address the more open and less stable environment in which developing countries operate today. Describing the latest advances in this rapidly changing field, the book features expanded coverage of public debt and the management of capital inflows as well as new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, currency unions, and the choice of an exchange-rate regime. A new chapter on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with financial frictions has been added to reflect how the financial crisis has reshaped our thinking on the role of such frictions in generating and propagating real and financial shocks. The book also discusses the role of macroprudential regulation, both independently and through its interactions with monetary policy, in preserving financial and macroeconomic stability. Now in its fourth edition, Development Macroeconomics remains the definitive textbook on the macroeconomics of developing countries. The most authoritative book on the subject—now fully revised and expanded Features new material on fiscal discipline, monetary policy regimes, currency, banking and sovereign debt crises, and much more Comes with online supplements on informal financial markets, stabilization programs, the solution of DSGE models with financial frictions, and exchange rate crises

Author : Müge Ant,Orta Do?u Teknik Üniversitesi (Ankara, Turkey). Department of Economics
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2002
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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Leading Indicators of Currency Crises by Müge Ant,Orta Do?u Teknik Üniversitesi (Ankara, Turkey). Department of Economics Pdf

Author : Graciela Laura Kaminsky
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 53,8 Mb
Release : 1997-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451955866

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Leading Indicators of Currency Crises by Graciela Laura Kaminsky Pdf

This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.

Author : M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 403 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 2021-03-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781464815454

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Global Waves of Debt by M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara Pdf

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Author : Graham Bird
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 201 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2003-09-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781134817641

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IMF Lending to Developing Countries by Graham Bird Pdf

As the linchpin of the global financial system, the International Monetary Fund provides the balance of payments support, chiefly to developing countries, conditional on strict remedial policy measures. Its approach to policy remains highly controversial, however. While the Fund claims it has adapted, critics allege its policies are harshly doctrinaire, imposing hardships on already poverty-stricken people. For the critics, the half century of its existence is `fifty years too long' and radical change is essential. This book examines the arguments, tracing the extent of Fund adaption, presenting major new evidence on the consequences of fund programes, and considering its future role.

Author : Mr.Eduardo Borensztein,Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Andrew Berg
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 49,6 Mb
Release : 2000-01-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 155775828X

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Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems by Mr.Eduardo Borensztein,Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti,Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo,Mr.Andrew Berg Pdf

Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.

Author : Muzafar Shah Habibullah
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 141 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9781351724654

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ASEAN in an Interdependent World by Muzafar Shah Habibullah Pdf

This title was first published in 2000. This volume contains nine selected applied economic papers presented during the 1999 Faculty of Economics and Management Seminar in Melaka. The articles included focus the studies on trade and finance in Malaysia and other ASEAN member countries.

Author : Anne O. Krueger
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 614 pages
File Size : 53,9 Mb
Release : 2000-11-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0226454479

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Economic Policy Reform by Anne O. Krueger Pdf

The papers and commentary collected here constitute a vital discussion of contemporary thinking on economic policy reform, in particular the difficulties that leave so much of the world seemingly mired in poverty.