Difficult Art Of Eliciting Long Run Inflation Expectations From Government Bond Prices

Author : Carlos Enrique Zarazaga
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2010-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781437933642

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Difficult Art of Eliciting Long-Run Inflation Expectations from Government Bond Prices by Carlos Enrique Zarazaga Pdf

Central banks are always concerned with keeping long-run inflation expectations well anchored at some implicit or explicit low target inflation rate. To that end, they are constantly on the lookout for indicators that can gauge those expectations accurately. One such indicator frequently reported in the specialized financial press and by central banks around the world is constructed with the forward rates technique, which exploits price differentials between government bonds of various maturities. This report examines the theory behind those indicators and assesses the extent to which they can be trusted in practice. Charts and tables.

Author : Andreas Jobst,Huidan Lin
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2016-08-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475524475

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Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) by Andreas Jobst,Huidan Lin Pdf

More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.

Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes,Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 71 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2012-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475505528

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The Chicago Plan Revisited by Mr.Jaromir Benes,Mr.Michael Kumhof Pdf

At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.

Author : Phillip Cagan,Robert E. Lipsey,National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher : Cambridge, Mass. : Published for the National Bureau of Economic Research by Ballinger Publishing Company
Page : 122 pages
File Size : 49,8 Mb
Release : 1978
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39015008188966

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The Financial Effects of Inflation by Phillip Cagan,Robert E. Lipsey,National Bureau of Economic Research Pdf

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2009-12-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781135179779

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Inflation Expectations by Peter J. N. Sinclair Pdf

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author : Mr.Paolo Mauro,Rafael Romeu,Mr.Ariel J Binder,Mr.Asad Zaman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 53 pages
File Size : 42,8 Mb
Release : 2013-01-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616358778

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A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy by Mr.Paolo Mauro,Rafael Romeu,Mr.Ariel J Binder,Mr.Asad Zaman Pdf

We draw on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal variables for a large panel of countries—to our knowledge, the most comprehensive database currently available—to gauge the degree of fiscal prudence or profligacy for each country over the past several decades. Specifically, our dataset consists of fiscal revenues, primary expenditures, the interest bill (and thus both the primary and the overall fiscal deficit), the government debt, and gross domestic product, for 55 countries for up to two hundred years. For the first time, a large cross country historical data set covers both fiscal stocks and flows. Using Bohn’s (1998) approach and other tests for fiscal sustainability, we document how the degree of prudence or profligacy varies significantly over time within individual countries. We find that such variation is driven in part by unexpected changes in potential economic growth and sovereign borrowing costs.

Author : Stephen Giovanni Cecchetti
Publisher : Centre for Economic Policy Research
Page : 164 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2000
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1898128537

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Asset Prices and Central Bank Policy by Stephen Giovanni Cecchetti Pdf

Concludes the role of asset prices in monetary policy is one of the most important, and difficult, questions confronting central banks.

Author : Yongseok Shin,Ms.Rachel Glennerster
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 48 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2003-06-01
Category : Computers
ISBN : 9781451855401

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Is Transparency Good for You, and Can the IMF Help? by Yongseok Shin,Ms.Rachel Glennerster Pdf

This paper finds that reforms introduced by the IMF to promote transparency have created more informed markets and reduced borrowing costs for those emerging market countries that volunteered for them. Using a quarterly panel estimation with fixed country effects, we find that sovereign spreads fall following the adoption of three different transparency reforms. The effects are economically important, especially for those countries with low initial transparency. We use two-stage least squares to address any endogeneity in the timing of reforms exploiting internal IMF timetables that are unrelated to country events. Next, using a panel GARCH specification, we show that spreads move more than normal in the days immediately following publication of IMF country documents.

Author : James Powell,Bank of Canada
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 124 pages
File Size : 51,7 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UIUC:30112077032222

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A History of the Canadian Dollar by James Powell,Bank of Canada Pdf

Author : Christina D. Romer,David H. Romer
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 434 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2007-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226724836

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Reducing Inflation by Christina D. Romer,David H. Romer Pdf

While there is ample evidence that high inflation is harmful, little is known about how best to reduce inflation or how far it should be reduced. In this volume, sixteen distinguished economists analyze the appropriateness of low inflation as a goal for monetary policy and discuss possible strategies for reducing inflation. Section I discusses the consequences of inflation. These papers analyze inflation's impact on the tax system, labor market flexibility, equilibrium unemployment, and the public's sense of well-being. Section II considers the obstacles facing central bankers in achieving low inflation. These papers study the precision of estimates of equilibrium unemployment, the sources of the high inflation of the 1970s, and the use of non-traditional indicators in policy formation. The papers in section III consider how institutions can be designed to promote successful monetary policy, and the importance of institutions to the performance of policy in the United States, Germany, and other countries. This timely volume should be read by anyone who studies or conducts monetary policy.

Author : Enrique Martinez-Garcia
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 46,9 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781437980660

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The Global Slack Hypothesis by Enrique Martinez-Garcia Pdf

Illustrates the analytical content of the global slack hypothesis in the context of variant of the New Open-Economy Macro model under the assumptions of both producer currency pricing and local currency. The model predicts that the Phillips curve for domestic CPI inflation will be flatter under most plausible parameterizations, the more important international trade is to the domestic economy. The model also predicts that foreign output gaps will matter for inflation dynamics, along with the domestic output gap. When the Phillips curve includes the terms of trade gap rather than the foreign output gap, the response of domestic inflation to the domestic output gap is the same as in the closed-economy case ¿ceteris paribus.¿ This is a print on demand report.

Author : Mr.Udaibir S. Das,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Christoph Trebesch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2012-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475505535

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Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by Mr.Udaibir S. Das,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Christoph Trebesch Pdf

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.

Author : Michael D. Bordo,Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 545 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2013-06-28
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226066950

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The Great Inflation by Michael D. Bordo,Athanasios Orphanides Pdf

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Author : Michael Clements,David F. Hendry
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 52,5 Mb
Release : 1998-10-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0521634806

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Forecasting Economic Time Series by Michael Clements,David F. Hendry Pdf

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Author : Unesco
Publisher : UNESCO
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 1982
Category : Political Science
ISBN : STANFORD:36105039423582

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Cultural Industries by Unesco Pdf

UNESCO pub. Monographic compilation of conference papers on cultural industry (mass media) trends and cultural policy issues - discusses the definition, production, distribution, internationalisation, impact of technological change and mass media on cultural change, value system, behaviour and attitudes, benefits, social implications, role of UNESCO and national level governments, place of artists and performers, etc., and includes case studies. References. Conference held in Montreal 1980 Jun 9 to 13.