Does Supply Or Demand Drive The Credit Cycle Evidence From Central Eastern And Southeastern Europe

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Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Greetje Everaert,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ms.Nan Geng,Bertrand Gruss,Gregorio Impavido,Yinqiu Lu,Christian Saborowski,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Mr.Li Zeng
Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle Evidence from Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe Book PDF

Author : Greetje Everaert,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ms.Nan Geng,Bertrand Gruss,Gregorio Impavido,Yinqiu Lu,Christian Saborowski,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Mr.Li Zeng
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 61 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2015-01-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498326391

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Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe by Greetje Everaert,Ms.Natasha Xingyuan Che,Ms.Nan Geng,Bertrand Gruss,Gregorio Impavido,Yinqiu Lu,Christian Saborowski,Jérôme Vandenbussche,Mr.Li Zeng Pdf

Countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) experienced a credit boom-bust cycle in the last decade. This paper analyzes the roles of demand and supply factors in explaining this credit cycle. Our analysis first focuses on a large sample of bank-level data on credit growth for the entire CESEE region. We complement this analysis by five case studies (Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania). Our results of the panel data analysis indicate that supply factors, on average and relative to demand factors, gained in importance in explaining credit growth in the post-crisis period. In the case studies, we find a similar result for Lithuania and Montenegro, but the other three case studies point to the fact that country experiences were heterogeneous.

Economic Recovery, Consolidation, and Sustainable Growth

Abdylmenaf Bexheti,Hyrije Abazi-Alili,Léo-Paul Dana,Veland Ramadani,Andrea Caputo
Economic Recovery Consolidation and Sustainable Growth Book PDF

Author : Abdylmenaf Bexheti,Hyrije Abazi-Alili,Léo-Paul Dana,Veland Ramadani,Andrea Caputo
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 845 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2024-01-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783031425110

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Economic Recovery, Consolidation, and Sustainable Growth by Abdylmenaf Bexheti,Hyrije Abazi-Alili,Léo-Paul Dana,Veland Ramadani,Andrea Caputo Pdf

This book presents carefully selected chapters from the proceedings of the 6th International Scientific Conference on Business and Economics (ISCBE),Tetovo, North Macedonia, which took place in May 2023. The chapters address a wide range of areas relevant to contemporary business and economics issues such as economic shocks, high inflation, energy crisis, COVID-19, growth prospects, economic forecast, labor market, gender inequalities, migration, entrepreneurship, and family businesses, firm development and innovations, technological transformation, etc. Researchers learn about the latest studies that discuss emerging challenges and perspectives of business and economics in the perspective of post-crisis economic recovery, consolidation, and stability.

Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017, Europe

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Regional Economic Outlook November 2017 Europe Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484319611

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Regional Economic Outlook, November 2017, Europe by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

The European recovery is strengthening and broadening appreciably. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2017, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, before easing to 2.1 percent in 2018. These are large upward revisions—0.5 and 0.2 percentage point for 2017 and 2018, respectively—relative to the April World Economic Outlook. The European recovery is spilling over to the rest of the world, contributing significantly to global growth. In a few advanced and many emerging economies, unemployment rates have returned to precrisis levels. Most emerging market European economies are now seeing robust wage growth. In many parts of Europe, however, wage growth is sluggish despite falling unemployment.

Banking and Monetary Policies in a Changing Financial Environment

Wassim Shahin,Elias El-Achkar
Banking and Monetary Policies in a Changing Financial Environment Book PDF

Author : Wassim Shahin,Elias El-Achkar
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 282 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2016-08-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317429951

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Banking and Monetary Policies in a Changing Financial Environment by Wassim Shahin,Elias El-Achkar Pdf

The 21st century witnessed major changes in the financial environment surrounding bank regulators and banks. Banking and Monetary Policies in a Changing Financial Environment delves into three of these developments and challenges. The first change in the financial environment relates to the rise in the number and sophistication of financial and economic crimes which shaped the international regulatory architecture. New rules and regulations led to the creation of new strategies to combat these crimes, especially those concerning the spread of more advanced money laundering methods and techniques, terrorist financing after the 9/11 attacks, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The second development concerns the global financial crisis of 2008 which drastically affected the regulatory environment of various international and domestic financial authorities causing major changes in bank lending and corporate governance policies, and in the development of the Basel III accord on capital adequacy for bank supervision. The third development manifests itself in the creation of a major European monetary union without a fiscal union and a giant European central bank impacting the conduct of monetary policy. This book combines theory, policy, regulation and institutional approaches with empirical testing, analyzing applications and case studies of various international regulatory authorities and administrations, countries and jurisdictions, central banks and commercial banks. This volume is suitable for those who study international finance, Banking and white collar crime.

Risk Assessment and Financial Regulation in Emerging Markets' Banking

Alexander M. Karminsky,Paolo Emilio Mistrulli,Mikhail I. Stolbov,Yong Shi
Risk Assessment and Financial Regulation in Emerging Markets Banking Book PDF

Author : Alexander M. Karminsky,Paolo Emilio Mistrulli,Mikhail I. Stolbov,Yong Shi
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 395 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2021-05-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030697488

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Risk Assessment and Financial Regulation in Emerging Markets' Banking by Alexander M. Karminsky,Paolo Emilio Mistrulli,Mikhail I. Stolbov,Yong Shi Pdf

This book describes various approaches in modelling financial risks and compiling ratings. Focusing on emerging markets, it illustrates how risk assessment is performed and analyses the use of machine learning methods for financial risk assessment and measurement. It not only offers readers insights into the differences between emerging and developed markets, but also helps them understand the development of risk management approaches for banks. Highlighting current problems connected with the evaluation and modelling of financial risks in the banking sector of emerging markets, the book presents the methodologies applied to credit and market financial risks and integrated and payment risks, and discusses the outcomes. In addition it explores the systemic risks and innovations in banking and risk management by analyzing the features of risk measurement in emerging countries. Lastly, it demonstrates the aggregation of approaches to financial risk for emerging financial markets, comparing the experiences of various countries, including Russia, Belarus, China and Brazil.

Republic of Kosovo

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Republic of Kosovo Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2018-02-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484340509

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Republic of Kosovo by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper on Kosovo discusses various challenges and opportunities in the public infrastructure domain. Given the very low initial stocks, largely due to the sharp depletion of capital stock during the conflicts in the 1990s, higher investment rates are needed. The resources available from international development partners, including the European Union (EU), the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, are a unique opportunity to leverage and accelerate the implementation of priority projects. Strengthening Kosovo’s investment framework is key to achieving this objective. Kosovo faces significant public infrastructure gaps, which constrain private sector development. Scaling-up public investment will raise gross domestic product growth potential and accelerate income convergence toward the EU average level. The priority project list has helped the authorities to prioritize plans and facilitate the discussions and negotiations with donors and International Financial Institutions (IFI). However, implementation so far has been modest, despite the new investment clause of the fiscal rule exempting IFI-financed projects from the deficit ceiling.

Republic of Croatia

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Republic of Croatia Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2018-01-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484337363

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Republic of Croatia by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

This paper reviews the relationship between real GDP growth and domestic bank lending to the private sector in Croatia after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), drawing on a cross-country analysis of European countries. Croatia’s recession was substantially longer compared to peers due to both domestic and external factors. Bank credit to the private sector was found to be important for economic growth, but less than often perceived, especially during a boom–bust cycle. Using empirical analysis, this paper confirms that the deleveraging of the private sector, particularly nonfinancial companies, was slow and contributed to Croatia’s prolonged recession. When provisions of nonperforming loans (NPLs) improved and the uncertainty following the GFC receded, credit supply increased, while demand for credit hesitantly picked up with the strengthening of the recovery. The paper thus reinforces that NPLs and how they are handled as well as real growth are important determinants for credit. These findings are supported by the cross-country analysis and corroborated by other studies.

OECD Economic Surveys: Lithuania 2016 Economic Assessment

OECD
OECD Economic Surveys Lithuania 2016 Economic Assessment Book PDF

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 144 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2016-03-15
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264251144

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OECD Economic Surveys: Lithuania 2016 Economic Assessment by OECD Pdf

This 2016 OECD Economic Survey of Lithuania examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects. The special chapters cover: Productivity convergence and Inclusive growth.

Republic of Slovenia

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Republic of Slovenia Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 58 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2017-05-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484300749

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Republic of Slovenia by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper takes the case of Slovenia to analyze credit growth and economic recovery in Europe. The findings reveal that following the global financial crisis recovery in Slovenia significantly lags typical postrecession recoveries for both typical and financial-crisis-driven recessions. Credit dynamics have also been much more subdued. Controlling for Slovenia’s double-dip recession and the slowdown in global growth after the global financial crisis reveals that Slovenia’s recovery is not atypical. The cross-country study also finds that bank-specific factors are the key determinants of bank lending. Bank credit to the private sector also has a positive but modest impact on economic activity, mainly through the investment channel.

Hungary

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Hungary Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 46 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2017-05-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484300473

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Hungary by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper reviews the relationship between real GDP growth and domestic bank lending to the private sector in Hungary after the global financial crisis, It draws on a cross-country analysis of European countries. The recessions that followed the crisis were deeper and lasted longer than the average recession. Hungary, like some other countries, experienced a creditless recovery. Although it is difficult to disentangle the causes, this analysis concludes that (1) both credit demand and supply were hurt by the crisis; (2) key factors influencing credit developments include loan quality, deposit funding, and bank capital, as well as the macroeconomic environment; and (3) lending by Hungarian banks to the private sector finally seems to be picking up.

Iceland

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Iceland Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 41 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2017-06-22
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484304983

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Iceland by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Pdf

Iceland: Selected Issues

Research Bulletin, March 2015

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Research Bulletin March 2015 Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 16 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2015-03-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475551389

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Research Bulletin, March 2015 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.

Mexico

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Mexico Book PDF

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 84 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2015-11-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513544083

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Mexico by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Pdf

This Selected Issues paper analyzes fiscal multipliers in Mexico. Estimates of fiscal multipliers––obtained from state-level spending––fall within 0.6–0.7 after accounting for dynamic effects. However, the size of multipliers varies with the output gap. The planned fiscal consolidation—under the estimated multipliers—is projected to subtract on average 0.5 percentage points from growth over 2015–20. However, there are offsetting effects. The positive growth impulse of lower costs on manufactured goods production is estimated to reach 0.5 percentage point in 2015 and 2016, largely offsetting the impact of fiscal consolidation on growth in the near term.

Financial Deepening in Mexico

Alexander Herman,Mr.Alexander D Klemm
Financial Deepening in Mexico Book PDF

Author : Alexander Herman,Mr.Alexander D Klemm
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2017-02-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475578072

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Financial Deepening in Mexico by Alexander Herman,Mr.Alexander D Klemm Pdf

International comparisons reveal that—even controlling for a host of explanatory factors—credit depth is exceptionally low in Mexico. Using panel data methods linking credit growth and fundamentals, this paper estimates a long-term gap between actual and expected credit of about 40 percent of GDP. Possible explanations include the history of banking crises, the large informal sector and an inefficient legal system. Using a disequilibrium regression approach, this paper also finds that supply factors are particularly important as determinants of credit in Mexico. Recent financial reforms address many of the supply constraints, but their success will depend on implementation. The main challenge going forward will be to support financial deepening, while limiting risks to financial stability.

Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis

Sergei Antoshin,Mr.Marco Arena,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Mr.Tonny Lybek,Mr.John Ralyea,Mr.Etienne B Yehoue
Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis Book PDF

Author : Sergei Antoshin,Mr.Marco Arena,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Mr.Tonny Lybek,Mr.John Ralyea,Mr.Etienne B Yehoue
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 47,5 Mb
Release : 2017-11-17
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484329610

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Credit Growth and Economic Recovery in Europe After the Global Financial Crisis by Sergei Antoshin,Mr.Marco Arena,Nikolay Gueorguiev,Mr.Tonny Lybek,Mr.John Ralyea,Mr.Etienne B Yehoue Pdf

This paper reviews the empirical relationships between credit growth, economic recovery, and bank profitability in Europe after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that the post-GFC recoveries in Europe have been weaker than previous recoveries, with the “double-dip” recessions in 2011–12 in many countries and the worldwide reach of the GFC explaining the underperformance. Bank lending has been subdued as well, but this appears to have only held back the recovery relatively moderately. A 10 percent increase in bank credit to the private sector is associated with a rise of 0.6–1 percent in real GDP and 2–21⁄2 percent in real private investment. These relationships have not changed significantly during and after the GFC. Loan quality, customer deposits, bank equity price index, and bank capital appear to be closely linked to bank lending. As expected, bank profitability is positively and significantly influenced by credit growth, but this relationship has weakened after the GFC.