Dynamic Fuel Price Pass Through

Author : Mr.Kangni R Kpodar,Mr.Chadi Abdallah
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2017-01-18
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475567779

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Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through by Mr.Kangni R Kpodar,Mr.Chadi Abdallah Pdf

This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on average, a one cent increase in crude oil prices per liter translates into a 1.2 cent increase in the retail gasoline price at peak level six months after the shock. However, the estimates vary significantly across country groups, ranging from about 0.5 cent in MENA countries to two cents in advanced economies. The results also show that positive oil price shocks have a larger impact than negative price shocks on the retail gasoline price. Finally, the paper underscores the importance of the new dataset in refining estimates of the fiscal cost of incomplete pass-through.

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2021-11-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616356156

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The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar,Boya Liu Pdf

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Gasoline
ISBN : 9781428950047

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Gasoline price changes the dynamic of supply, demand, and competition. by Anonim Pdf

Author : Mr.Kangni R Kpodar,Ms.Stefania Fabrizio,Kodjovi M. Eklou
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 34 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2019-02-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498300780

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Export Competitiveness - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries: Real or False Concern? by Mr.Kangni R Kpodar,Ms.Stefania Fabrizio,Kodjovi M. Eklou Pdf

This paper investigates the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth in a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using a fixed-effect estimator and the local projection approach, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, but only in the short run as the impact phases out within two years after the shock. The results also suggest that the negative effect of fuel price increase on exports is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and countries where access to an alternative source of energy, such as electricity, is constrained, thus preventing producers from altering energy consumption mix in response to fuel price changes.

Author : Mr. Simon Black,Ian W.H. Parry,Mr. Victor Mylonas,Nate Vernon,Karlygash Zhunussova
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 73 pages
File Size : 43,6 Mb
Release : 2023-06-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400242342

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The IMF-World Bank Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT): A Model to Help Countries Mitigate Climate Change by Mr. Simon Black,Ian W.H. Parry,Mr. Victor Mylonas,Nate Vernon,Karlygash Zhunussova Pdf

To stabilize the climate, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by 25 to 50 percent by 2030 compared to 2019. Such an unprecedented rate of decarbonization necessitates climate mitigation policies across countries, notably carbon pricing, fossil fuel subsidy reform, renewable subsidies, feebates, emission rate regulations, and public investments. To design and implement effective, efficient, and equitable policies, governments need tools to assess economic, environmental, fiscal, and social impacts. To support this effort, the IMF and World Bank are making their joint Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT) available to governments. CPAT is a transparent, flexible, and user-friendly model covering over 200 countries. It allows for the rapid quantification of impacts of climate mitigation policies, including on energy demand, prices, emissions, revenues, welfare, GDP, households and industries, local air pollution and health, and many other metrics. This paper describes the CPAT model, its data sources, key assumptions, and caveats.

Author : Kangni R. Kpodar,Patrick A. Imam
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2020-09-25
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1513557629

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To Pass (or Not to Pass) Through International Fuel Price Changes to Domestic Fuel Prices in Developing Countries: What Are the Drivers? by Kangni R. Kpodar,Patrick A. Imam Pdf

While many developing countries limit the international fuel price pass through to domestic fuel prices, others do not. Against this backdrop, we examine the factors that determine whether governments allow international fuel price changes to be passed through to domestic prices in developing countries using a dataset spanning 109 developing countries from 2000 to 2014. The paper finds that the pass-through is higher when changes in international prices are moderate and less volatile. In addition, the flexibility of the pricing mechanism allows for higher pass-through while exchange rate depreciation and lower retail fuel prices in neighboring countries inhibit it. The econometric results also underscore the fact that countries with inflation tend to experience lower pass-through, whereas those with high public debt exhibit larger pass-through. Finally, no evidence is found that political variables or environmental policies matter with regard to fuel price dynamics in the short-term. These findings, which are consistent across fuel products (gasoline, diesel and kerosene), allow us to draw important policy lessons for fuel subsidy reforms.

Author : Mr.Chadi Abdallah,Mr.Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2020-06-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513546094

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How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices? by Mr.Chadi Abdallah,Mr.Kangni R Kpodar Pdf

We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks, with effects being, on average, modest and transitory. However, our results suggest significant heterogeneity in the response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity, and monetary policy credibility. We also find compelling evidence of asymmetric effects—under sufficiently large shocks—in the case of high-income and low-income countries, with increases in retail fuel prices inducing larger effects on inflation than decreases in fuel prices.

Author : P. Karadeloglou,V. Terraza
Publisher : Springer
Page : 255 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2008-02-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230582699

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Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Dynamics by P. Karadeloglou,V. Terraza Pdf

This book looks at the PPP persistence puzzle, and econometric aspects of exchange rate dynamics and their implications. It also explores the importance of exchange rate dynamics in the pass-through effects (PTE) and the econometric aspects of the exchange rates dynamics linked to structural shocks on different economies.

Author : Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Philippe D Karam,Mr.Jan Vlcek
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 20 pages
File Size : 45,5 Mb
Release : 2019-07-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513508016

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Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines by Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Philippe D Karam,Mr.Jan Vlcek Pdf

Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.

Author : Manuel Frondel,Alexander Kihm,Colin Vance
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 14 pages
File Size : 54,9 Mb
Release : 2015
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 3867886598

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Time Lags in the Pass-Through of Crude-Oil Prices - Big Data Evidence from the German Gasoline Market by Manuel Frondel,Alexander Kihm,Colin Vance Pdf

Author : Milton L. Holloway
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 402 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2021-05-06
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9780128241929

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Innovation Dynamics and Policy in the Energy Sector by Milton L. Holloway Pdf

Innovation Dynamics and Policy in the Energy Sector discusses the process and future of global innovation in the energy sector based on the innovation leadership example of Texas. The book proposes that the positive dynamics of Texas energy sector innovations arises from a confluence of factors, including supportive institutions, the management of technological change, competitive markets, astute public policy, intraindustrial collaboration, a cultural focus on change and risk-taking, and natural resource abundance. Heavily case-study focused chapters review the fundamental drivers of innovation, from key discoveries at Spindletop; the proliferation of oil production through major field development; through electric sector deregulation; and recent innovation in hydraulic fracking, renewable integration, and carbon capture. The work closes to argue that sustainable global innovation addressing the twin challenges of climate change and the energy transition must be driven by the promotion of competition and risk-taking which continually promotes the development of ideas, a process jointly funded by the public and private sectors and supported by collaborative and competitive institutions. Reviews the fundamental drivers of energy innovation and examines each driver through 10 key episodes in the Texas energy innovation experience, inclusive of guidance to the international research community based on their example. Establishes the critical impact of constructive energy policy, energy technology, and power markets in cultural settings that invite change and risk-taking and proposes them as key factors in building sustainable innovation. Consolidates current research and practice related to innovation from the perspectives of established (economics and engineering) and emergent (innovation economics and econometrics) disciplines.

Author : Chadi Abdallah,David Coady,La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2023-03-17
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9798400236853

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Public-Private Wage Differentials and Interactions Across Countries and Time by Chadi Abdallah,David Coady,La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul Pdf

Public-Private Wage Differentials and Interactions Across Countries and Time

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 12 pages
File Size : 51,6 Mb
Release : 2017-04-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475595291

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IMF Research Bulletin, March 2017 by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Pdf

This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin features recommended readings from IMF Publications and an update on recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes. It also includes a special announcement welcoming Linda Tesar (University of Michigan) as the new editor of “IMF Economic Review.” The Q&A section explores “Seven Questions on China-Africa Relations” (Luiz Almeida, Wenjie Chen, and Oral Williams). The Research Summaries surveys “Income Polarization in the United States” (Ali Alichi, Kory Kantenga, and Juan Sole); and “The Future Wealth of Nations: World Trade in Services” (Prakash Loungani, Saurabh Mishra, Chris Papageorgiou, and Ke Wang).

Author : Fozan Fareed,Abolfazl Rezghi,Charlotte Sandoz
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 30 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2023-12-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400263040

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Inflation Dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): What is the Role of External Factors? by Fozan Fareed,Abolfazl Rezghi,Charlotte Sandoz Pdf

Inflationary pressures have intensified in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 2021-2022, mainly driven by a pick-up in tradeable goods inflation. Despite this increase, inflation remained relatively contained as compared to regional comparators. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics in the region, with a focus on external factors because of GCC’s high reliance on international trade. Using a Global Vector Autoregressive model with quarterly data from 1987 to 2022, we find that external factors such as the imported inflation from main trading partners, mainly driven by China, and nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) are the main drivers of inflation in the GCC region. Additionally, we find that the direct pass-through of international commodity price shocks such as oil and raw agricultural materials is somewhat limited, after controlling for trading partners’ inflation, which can be explained by the prevalence of subsidies and administered prices in the region. Overall, since external factors are the main drivers of domestic inflation in the GCC, an increased focus on diversification, promoting food security, and ensuring prudent central bank policies, including through effective liquidity management frameworks, can play a key role in managing this impact.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 59 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2022-10-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9798400220654

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Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Pdf

In a worsening global environment, economies in the Middle East and Central Asia are being buffeted by a confluence of shocks: a global slowdown, high and volatile food and energy prices, faster and stronger than expected tightening of financial conditions, and the risk of fragmentation. The region’s emerging market and middle-income economies (EM&MIs) and low-income countries (LICs) are hit hard, with many facing curtailed access to market financing, while oil-exporting countries are being buffered by still-high energy prices. The adverse impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) has thus far been milder than expected. Still, the CCA’s strong ties to Russia entail substantial risks to the region’s outlook. The most urgent policy challenge for all countries is to tackle the cost-of-living crisis by restoring price stability, protecting vulnerable groups through targeted support, and ensuring food security. Policy trade-offs in EM&MIs and LICs have become more pronounced than ever, as they also need to preserve debt sustainability and financial stability. Oil exporters have the opportunity to maximize the benefits of the oil windfall by building buffers and advancing their diversification plans. CCA countries should carefully assess the magnitude and durability of the initial spillovers from the war in Ukraine and adjust their policy mix accordingly. Limited policy space in many countries raises the urgency of structural reforms to bolster economic growth while transforming economies to become more resilient, sustainable, diversified, and inclusive.