Ecological Inference

Author : Gary King
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Page : 366 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2013-09-20
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781400849208

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A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem by Gary King Pdf

This book provides a solution to the ecological inference problem, which has plagued users of statistical methods for over seventy-five years: How can researchers reliably infer individual-level behavior from aggregate (ecological) data? In political science, this question arises when individual-level surveys are unavailable (for instance, local or comparative electoral politics), unreliable (racial politics), insufficient (political geography), or infeasible (political history). This ecological inference problem also confronts researchers in numerous areas of major significance in public policy, and other academic disciplines, ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history. Although many have attempted to make such cross-level inferences, scholars agree that all existing methods yield very inaccurate conclusions about the world. In this volume, Gary King lays out a unique--and reliable--solution to this venerable problem. King begins with a qualitative overview, readable even by those without a statistical background. He then unifies the apparently diverse findings in the methodological literature, so that only one aggregation problem remains to be solved. He then presents his solution, as well as empirical evaluations of the solution that include over 16,000 comparisons of his estimates from real aggregate data to the known individual-level answer. The method works in practice. King's solution to the ecological inference problem will enable empirical researchers to investigate substantive questions that have heretofore proved unanswerable, and move forward fields of inquiry in which progress has been stifled by this problem.

Author : Gary King,Martin A. Tanner,Ori Rosen
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 436 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2004-09-13
Category : Nature
ISBN : 0521542804

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Ecological Inference by Gary King,Martin A. Tanner,Ori Rosen Pdf

Drawing upon the recent explosion of research in the field, a diverse group of scholars surveys the latest strategies for solving ecological inference problems, the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. The uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most difficult areas of statistical inference, but these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, marketing research by business, and policy analysis by governments. This wide-ranging collection of essays offers many fresh and important contributions to the study of ecological inference.

Author : J. Andrew Royle,Robert M. Dorazio
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 464 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2008-10-15
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780080559254

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Hierarchical Modeling and Inference in Ecology by J. Andrew Royle,Robert M. Dorazio Pdf

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics * Wide variety of examples involving many taxa (birds, amphibians, mammals, insects, plants) * Development of classical, likelihood-based procedures for inference, as well as Bayesian methods of analysis * Detailed explanations describing the implementation of hierarchical models using freely available software such as R and WinBUGS * Computing support in technical appendices in an online companion web site

Author : William A Link,Richard J Barker
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 354 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2009-08-07
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780080889801

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Bayesian Inference by William A Link,Richard J Barker Pdf

This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analytical software and examples Leading authors with world-class reputations in ecology and biostatistics

Author : Janet Franklin
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 538 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2010-01-07
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781139485296

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Mapping Species Distributions by Janet Franklin Pdf

Maps of species' distributions or habitat suitability are required for many aspects of environmental research, resource management and conservation planning. These include biodiversity assessment, reserve design, habitat management and restoration, species and habitat conservation plans and predicting the effects of environmental change on species and ecosystems. The proliferation of methods and uncertainty regarding their effectiveness can be daunting to researchers, resource managers and conservation planners alike. Franklin summarises the methods used in species distribution modeling (also called niche modeling) and presents a framework for spatial prediction of species distributions based on the attributes (space, time, scale) of the data and questions being asked. The framework links theoretical ecological models of species distributions to spatial data on species and environment, and statistical models used for spatial prediction. Providing practical guidelines to students, researchers and practitioners in a broad range of environmental sciences including ecology, geography, conservation biology, and natural resources management.

Author : Christopher H. Achen,W. Phillips Shively
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 266 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 1995-05-15
Category : Family & Relationships
ISBN : 0226002195

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Cross-Level Inference by Christopher H. Achen,W. Phillips Shively Pdf

In the last several years, new disputes have erupted over the use of group averages from census areas or voting districts to draw inferences about individual social behavior. Social scientists, policy analysts, and historians often have little choice about using this kind of data, but statistical analysis of them is fraught with pitfalls. The recent debates have led to a new menu of choices for the applied researcher. This volume explains why older methods like ecological regression so often fail, and it gives the most comprehensive treatment available of the promising new techniques for cross-level inference. Experts in statistical analysis of aggregate data, Christopher H. Achen and W. Philips Shively contend that cross-level inference makes unusually strong demands on substantive knowledge, so that no one method, such as Goodman's ecological regression, will fit all situations. Criticizing Goodman's model and some recent attempts to replace it, the authors argue for a range of alternate techniques, including estensions of cross-tabular, regression analysis, and unobservable variable estimators.

Author : Ruth King,Byron Morgan,Olivier Gimenez,Steve Brooks
Publisher : CRC Press
Page : 457 pages
File Size : 43,7 Mb
Release : 2009-10-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9781439811887

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Bayesian Analysis for Population Ecology by Ruth King,Byron Morgan,Olivier Gimenez,Steve Brooks Pdf

Novel Statistical Tools for Conserving and Managing PopulationsBy gathering information on key demographic parameters, scientists can often predict how populations will develop in the future and relate these parameters to external influences, such as global warming. Because of their ability to easily incorporate random effects, fit state-space mode

Author : David R. Anderson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 203 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 2007-12-22
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780387740751

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Model Based Inference in the Life Sciences by David R. Anderson Pdf

This textbook introduces a science philosophy called "information theoretic" based on Kullback-Leibler information theory. It focuses on a science philosophy based on "multiple working hypotheses" and statistical models to represent them. The text is written for people new to the information-theoretic approaches to statistical inference, whether graduate students, post-docs, or professionals. Readers are however expected to have a background in general statistical principles, regression analysis, and some exposure to likelihood methods. This is not an elementary text as it assumes reasonable competence in modeling and parameter estimation.

Author : Franzi Korner-Nievergelt,Tobias Roth,Stefanie von Felten,Jérôme Guélat,Bettina Almasi,Pius Korner-Nievergelt
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 328 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2015-04-04
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128016787

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Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and Stan by Franzi Korner-Nievergelt,Tobias Roth,Stefanie von Felten,Jérôme Guélat,Bettina Almasi,Pius Korner-Nievergelt Pdf

Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN examines the Bayesian and frequentist methods of conducting data analyses. The book provides the theoretical background in an easy-to-understand approach, encouraging readers to examine the processes that generated their data. Including discussions of model selection, model checking, and multi-model inference, the book also uses effect plots that allow a natural interpretation of data. Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN introduces Bayesian software, using R for the simple modes, and flexible Bayesian software (BUGS and Stan) for the more complicated ones. Guiding the ready from easy toward more complex (real) data analyses ina step-by-step manner, the book presents problems and solutions—including all R codes—that are most often applicable to other data and questions, making it an invaluable resource for analyzing a variety of data types. Introduces Bayesian data analysis, allowing users to obtain uncertainty measurements easily for any derived parameter of interest Written in a step-by-step approach that allows for eased understanding by non-statisticians Includes a companion website containing R-code to help users conduct Bayesian data analyses on their own data All example data as well as additional functions are provided in the R-package blmeco

Author : Laura Irwin Langbein,Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : SAGE Publications, Incorporated
Page : 78 pages
File Size : 41,6 Mb
Release : 1978
Category : Social Science
ISBN : WISC:89049481377

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Ecological Inference by Laura Irwin Langbein,Allan J. Lichtman Pdf

Explores the utility of techniques designed to make the inferences in causal modeling more reliable, including a comparison between ecological regression models and ecological correlation.Learn more about "The Little Green Book" - QASS Series! Click Here

Author : Richard J. Hobbs,Katharine N. Suding,Peter Society for Ecological Restoration International
Publisher : Island Press
Page : 366 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2013-03-19
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781610911382

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New Models for Ecosystem Dynamics and Restoration by Richard J. Hobbs,Katharine N. Suding,Peter Society for Ecological Restoration International Pdf

As scientific understanding about ecological processes has grown, the idea that ecosystem dynamics are complex, nonlinear, and often unpredictable has gained prominence. Of particular importance is the idea that rather than following an inevitable progression toward an ultimate endpoint, some ecosystems may occur in a number of states depending on past and present ecological conditions. The emerging idea of “restoration thresholds” also enables scientists to recognize when ecological systems are likely to recover on their own and when active restoration efforts are needed. Conceptual models based on alternative stable states and restoration thresholds can help inform restoration efforts. New Models for Ecosystem Dynamics and Restoration brings together leading experts from around the world to explore how conceptual models of ecosystem dynamics can be applied to the recovery of degraded systems and how recent advances in our understanding of ecosystem and landscape dynamics can be translated into conceptual and practical frameworks for restoration. In the first part of the book, background chapters present and discuss the basic concepts and models and explore the implications of new scientific research on restoration practice. The second part considers the dynamics and restoration of different ecosystems, ranging from arid lands to grasslands, woodlands, and savannahs, to forests and wetlands, to production landscapes. A summary chapter by the editors discusses the implications of theory and practice of the ideas described in preceding chapters. New Models for Ecosystem Dynamics and Restoration aims to widen the scope and increase the application of threshold models by critiquing their application in a wide range of ecosystem types. It will also help scientists and restorationists correctly diagnose ecosystem damage, identify restoration thresholds, and develop corrective methodologies that can overcome such thresholds.

Author : Mark E. Jensen,Patrick S. Bourgeron
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 540 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2012-09-07
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781441986207

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A Guidebook for Integrated Ecological Assessments by Mark E. Jensen,Patrick S. Bourgeron Pdf

A rich set of protocols for the process of assessing the ecological make-up of the land so as to guide environmental decision-making.

Author : Bradley Lowell Palmquist
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 490 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 1993
Category : Inference
ISBN : UCAL:C3373331

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Ecological Inference, Aggregate Data Analysis of U.S. Elections, and the Socialist Party of America by Bradley Lowell Palmquist Pdf

Author : David Lawrence Peterson,V. Thomas Parker
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 615 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Science
ISBN : 0231105029

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Ecological Scale by David Lawrence Peterson,V. Thomas Parker Pdf

Identifying scales of measurement, analysis, and inference is fundamental to the ability to assess and predict patterns and processes in ecology. This book synthesizes a diverse, previously scattered literature on scale in ecology. Peterson and Parker have gathered contributions from scholars representing a wide range of disciplines, including soil science, plant ecology, animal ecology, and aquatic ecology.

Author : Marc Kéry,J. Andrew Royle
Publisher : Academic Press
Page : 810 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2015-11-14
Category : Science
ISBN : 9780128014868

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Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology: Analysis of distribution, abundance and species richness in R and BUGS by Marc Kéry,J. Andrew Royle Pdf

Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology: Distribution, Abundance, Species Richness offers a new synthesis of the state-of-the-art of hierarchical models for plant and animal distribution, abundance, and community characteristics such as species richness using data collected in metapopulation designs. These types of data are extremely widespread in ecology and its applications in such areas as biodiversity monitoring and fisheries and wildlife management. This first volume explains static models/procedures in the context of hierarchical models that collectively represent a unified approach to ecological research, taking the reader from design, through data collection, and into analyses using a very powerful class of models. Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology, Volume 1 serves as an indispensable manual for practicing field biologists, and as a graduate-level text for students in ecology, conservation biology, fisheries/wildlife management, and related fields. Provides a synthesis of important classes of models about distribution, abundance, and species richness while accommodating imperfect detection Presents models and methods for identifying unmarked individuals and species Written in a step-by-step approach accessible to non-statisticians and provides fully worked examples that serve as a template for readers' analyses Includes companion website containing data sets, code, solutions to exercises, and further information