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Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015) by Yang Li,Ping Li,Xuesong Li,Ping Zhang Pdf
This book provides a detailed and up-to- date analysis of the current and near-future domestic economic situation in China based on the concept of “New Normal”, which was first proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and which is commonly used in discussions on China’s current economy. China’s New Normal is the result of the growing pressures on domestic resources, environmental restrictions, and unstable international economic recovery and characterized by a moderate economic increase, a proper increase in commodity pricing, stabilizing new employment and optimizing economic structure. The book argues that while China focuses on stability and quality in macro-control and enhancing reform and innovation, many contradictions and problems in economic operations are gradually being solved, therefore optimizing the economic structure. The book explores many aspects of China’s economic development under the “New Normal” while making analysis and policy suggestions for the present economic trends.
This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
China’s Macroeconomic Outlook by CMR of Xiamen University Pdf
This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing result from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
The China Economy Yearbook, Volume 5 by Jiagui Chen Pdf
This fifth English volume of The China Economy Yearbook is based on a symposium held in autumn 2009 titled Analysis and Forecast of China’s Economic Situation, organised by the Analysis and Forecast Project Group for China’s Economic Situation of the Institute of Economics, China Academy of Social Sciences.
Chinese Research Perspectives on Society, Volume 4 by Peilin LI,Guangjin CHEN,Yi ZHANG Pdf
This volume gives an overview of China’s social conditions. Issues discussed include trends in the job market, income, consumption, social security, internet development and others. Groups such as urban residents, migrant workers and university students and graduates receive special attention.
The main purpose of this book is to apply the basic tools of economic analysis to the economy of the Peoples' Republic of China. It is written for students of economics who would like to understand China, for students of China who would like to understand economics, and for professional economists and lay readers who would like to understand the Chinese economy.The study of the Chinese economy is interesting to economists for several reasons. First, China has a different cultural background and a different set of social and political institutions from the Western countries, in which most of the tools of economic analysis have been developed. It is therefore interesting to see how these tools can be applied to China and how they ought to be further developed or modified in the Chinese context. Second, many drastic changes in economic policy and economic institutions have taken place since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Such important experiments in economics provide rare opportunities to study their results. Third, since the later 1970s much more information on the Chinese economy has become available. It is time for us to digest, to scrutinize, and possibly to help improve the economic data on China.
China’s Macroeconomic Outlook by CMR of Xiamen University Pdf
This book is a quarterly forecast and analysis report on the Chinese economy. It is published twice a year and presents ongoing results from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM),” a research project at the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. Based on the CQMM model, the research team forecast major macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters, including the rate of GDP growth, the CPI, fixed-asset investment, resident consumption and foreign trade. At the same time it focuses on simulation of current macroeconomic policies in China. In addition to helping readers understand China’s economic trend and policy guide, this book has three main goals: to help readers understand China’s economic performance; to forecast the main macroeconomic indicators for the next 8 quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. /div
China's Economic Rise by Congressional Research Service Pdf
Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.
Chinese Research Perspectives on Society, Volume 5 by Peilin LI,Guangjin Chen,Yi ZHANG Pdf
Intro -- Contents -- Figures and Tables -- Chapter 1 China Enters the Final Stretch before Realizing a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Aspects: Analysis and Forecast of China's Social Conditions during 2015-2016 -- Chapter 2 The Income and Consumption of China's Urban and Rural Residents in 2015 -- Chapter 3 China's Employment in 2015: Innovation and Entrepreneurship Promoted Employment -- Chapter 4 The Changes in China's Resident Income Gap under the New Normal of the Economy in 2015 -- Chapter 5 Progress of the Social Security Undertaking amidst Reform in 2015 -- Chapter 6 Annual Report on the Development of China's Medical and Health Undertaking 2015 -- Chapter 7 The Educational Achievements in China during the Period of the 12th Five-Year Plan and the Outlook for Educational Development in the Period of the 13th Five-Year Plan -- Chapter 8 Survey Report on the Current Situation of China's Social Quality -- Chapter 9 Survey Report on the Situation of the Urban and Rural Groups in Difficulties in China -- Chapter 10 Survey Report on the Scale and Structure of China's Family Households -- Chapter 11 Survey Report on the Willingness and Planof Urban and Rural Residents in China to Have Two Children -- Chapter 12 Survey Report on the Social Middle Class in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou -- Chapter 13 Analysis Report on China's Online Public Opinion 2015 -- Chapter 14 2015: the Situation of China's Workers towards the Period of the 13th Five-Year Plan -- Chapter 15 Survey and Analysis Report on the Basic Situation of the Production and the Life of Chinese Farmers 2015 -- Chapter 16 The Building of an Urban Community and Community Governance in China in 2015 -- Chapter 17 2015: Report on the Progress in China's Farmer Organization -- Chapter 18 Survey and Analysis Report on the Online Behaviors of China's Private Entrepreneurs 2015.
Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960-2030 AD, Second Edition, Revised and Updated by Maddison Angus Pdf
This book uses a comparative approach to explain why China’s role in the world economy has changed so dramatically in the last thousand years. This edition has been revised and updated and Chapter 4 is new. It concludes that China will resume its role as the world's largest economy by 2015.
Summer Report of China Industrial Economic Situation Analysis (2016) by Industrial Economic Situation Analysis Team Institute of Industrial Economics, CASS Pdf
By analyzing the status quo of the industrial economy, this book argues that the economic growth in China’s industrial economy will continue to decline, with industries becoming segmented more rapidly, profitability slumping, and economic structures being adjusted further. It also provides policy recommendations to promote the healthy development of China’s industrial economy. Using a wealth of data and figures, it assesses the state of China’s industrial economy in 2015 and the prospects for 2016. The perspective of this book is, of course, a Chinese one, thus helping readers to grasp what and how Chinese people think about their country’s industrial economy. As such, it not only represents a valuable resource for academic studies, but will also appeal to all readers with an interest in the aspects discussed.
China's Macroeconomic Outlook by CMR of Xiamen University Pdf
Owing to the decline in domestic investment and trade with the rest of the world, China’s real GDP in the first half of 2012 was lower than expected. Based on forecasts from China’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), the slowdown of the growth rate in 2013 will be moderate as a result of modestly proactive macro control policy. GDP would grow at 8.01 percent in 2012, and then rebound to 8.29 in 2013; CPI would fall to a 2.9 percent in 2012, and then would pick up to 3.27 percent in 2013. In the scenario in which the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area worsened in the second half of 2012, real GDP is forecast at 7.71 percent for 2012 and 7.5 percent for 2013. Even if the external economic environment becomes worse, China’s growth is expected to stay at above 7.5 percent, which might be a steady growth rate for the near future. If China plans to achieve a higher growth rate by launching the “2 trillion massive investment package”, the growth rate of GDP could be increased to 8.25 and 8.86 percent in 2012 and 2013 with a risk of inflation and worsening economic structure. The policy implication from CQMM: on one hand the Chinese government should be able to maintain the growth rate of around 8 percent by means of timely fine-tuning of monetary policies; on the other hand, the emphasis of the micro control should be placed on structural adjustments through fiscal policies. In the long run, deepening economic, social and institutional reform will be crucial to remove the significant structural imbalance and institutional barriers to market competition, to accelerate the transformation of economic development patterns, and finally to maintain a sustainable growth rate.
The China Economy Yearbook, Volume 3 by Jiagui Chen Pdf
This third English volume of The China Economy Yearbook, based on the 2008 annual report in Chinese, provides an in-depth analysis of China’s economy during 2007 and predictions for 2008. Written by leading economic researchers from China’s premier economic research institutions, the articles in the yearbook examine key aspects of China’s economic performance, including the capital goods market, agricultural output, monetary policy, tax revenue, and sustainable growth metrics.
China 2049 by David Dollar,Yiping Huang,Yang Yao Pdf
How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It’s clear that China is the world’s next economic superpower. But what isn’t so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China’s leading university and America’s best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country’s development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China’s role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China’s development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.
Author : Center for Macroeconomic Research o Publisher : Springer Page : 59 pages File Size : 40,7 Mb Release : 2014-03-08 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 3642542220
China's Macroeconomic Outlook by Center for Macroeconomic Research o Pdf
As the sluggish external market demand and excess domestic investment in past years have caused excess production capacity, resulting in both industrial growth rate and GDP growth rate falling to lowest point for the last three years in China. Where would China’s economy go? China’s Macroeconomic Outlook, September 2013 provides some insights into the details of the economic development in China, and also includes series of simulations of the impact of decreasing government revenue on the economic performance. The research suggests that China should cut its government revenue share in GDP to promote its structural adjustment.