Economic And Fiscal Impacts Of Disasters In The Pacific

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2018-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9292611186

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Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Disasters in the Pacific by Asian Development Bank Pdf

Pacific island countries need to build their fiscal and economic resilience to climate change and natural disasters as these have lasting consequences on their livelihoods, economies, and fiscal balances. Climate change and natural disasters can have lasting consequences on livelihoods, economies, and fiscal balances-spanning immediate reconstruction costs and fiscal shocks to long-term halts in tourism and agriculture economies. Globally, the most exposed to these impacts are the Pacific island countries. The Asian Development Bank is working closely with its Pacific developing member countries to prepare for and respond to the effects of climate change and natural hazards. This publication examines the often-overlooked dimension of resilience planning-how to brace economies for shocks caused by climate change and hazard events. It analyzes the exposure and vulnerability of Pacific economies to disaster events and outlines key resources for building fiscal and economic resilience.

Author : Dongyeol Lee,Huan Zhang,Chau Nguyen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2018-05-10
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781484353288

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The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness by Dongyeol Lee,Huan Zhang,Chau Nguyen Pdf

Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.

Author : Ezequiel Cabezon,Ms.Leni Hunter,Ms.Patrizia Tumbarello,Kazuaki Washimi,Mr.Yiqun Wu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2015-06-19
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781513525792

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Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in the Small States of the Pacific by Ezequiel Cabezon,Ms.Leni Hunter,Ms.Patrizia Tumbarello,Kazuaki Washimi,Mr.Yiqun Wu Pdf

Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.

Author : Ryota Nakatani
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 46,8 Mb
Release : 2019-09-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513514888

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A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands — Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change by Ryota Nakatani Pdf

A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants. The question that arises is how should small developing countries formulate a fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when prone to various shocks? We study how natural disasters affect long-term debt dynamics and propose fiscal policy rules that could help insulate the economy from such unexpected shocks. We propose fiscal rules to address these shocks and uncertainties using the example of Papua New Guinea. Our study finds the advantages of expenditure rules, especially a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This paper contributes to the literature and policy dialogue by theoretically analyzing the impact of natural disasters on debt sustainability and proposing fiscal rules against natural disasters and climate changes. Our fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters and climate change. Our rules-based fiscal framework is crucial for sustainable and countercyclical macroeconomic policies to build resilience against devastating natural hazards.

Author : Charlotte Benson,Edward J. Clay
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 136 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 0821356852

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Understanding the economic and financial impacts of natural disasters by Charlotte Benson,Edward J. Clay Pdf

Author : Hidetaka Nishizawa,Mr.Scott Roger,Huan Zhang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 52,8 Mb
Release : 2019-07-12
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781498320801

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Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries by Hidetaka Nishizawa,Mr.Scott Roger,Huan Zhang Pdf

Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spending pressures to address post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. This paper estimates the effects of severe natural disasters on fiscal revenues and expenditure in PICs. These are combined with information on the frequency of large disasters to calculate the rate of budgetary savings needed to build appropriate fiscal buffers. Fiscal buffers provide self-insurance against natural disaster shocks and facilitate quick disbursement for recovery and relief efforts, and protection of spending on essential services and infrastructure. The estimates can provide a benchmark for policymakers, and should be adjusted to take into account other sources of financing, as well as budget risks from less severe as well as more frequent disasters.

Author : Charlotte Benson,Edward J. Clay
Publisher : World Bank Publications
Page : 136 pages
File Size : 40,8 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Disaster relief
ISBN : UCSD:31822033279829

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Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters by Charlotte Benson,Edward J. Clay Pdf

Disaster prevention and mitigation are integral to development activities. In February 2000, the World Bank's Disaster Management Facility initiated a three-year study on the economic and financial consequences of natural disasters with the support of the U.K. Department for International Development.

Author : Mr.Serhan Cevik,Guohua Huang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 18 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2018-06-11
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484380987

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How to Manage the Fiscal Costs of Natural Disasters by Mr.Serhan Cevik,Guohua Huang Pdf

This how-to note focuses on the management of the fiscal costs associated with natural disaster risks. Unlike other types of fiscal risks (for example, unexpected macroeconomic changes or materialization of contingent liabilities), a natural disaster presents a unique challenge to fiscal risk-management and budget processes because of its exogenous nature and potentially overwhelming scale. This note discusses how governments can build fiscal resilience against natural hazards and strengthen fiscal management after a disaster, including through budgeting frameworks and other fiscal policies. The note aims to answer three central questions: How large should fiscal buffers be? How should fiscal buffers be built up? How should fiscal buffers be used efficiently and transparently once a natural disaster has struck? These three questions directly relate to fiscal policy, fiscal risk management, and the budget process—all core areas of IMF expertise. To address them, the note focuses on fiscal strategies for financing recovery efforts and considers approaches to mitigate disaster impact. The note also provides guidance on how to conduct regular risk analyses of natural disasters’ potential fiscal consequences and outlines best practices for defining and accounting for the contingent liabilities associated with natural disasters in budgeting frameworks. Finally, the note touches on approaches for risk reduction, disaster risk financing strategies, and risk transfer mechanisms, such as various insurance instruments.

Author : Debarati Guha-Sapir,Indhira Santos,Alexandre Borde
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 341 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2013-05-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780199841936

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The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters by Debarati Guha-Sapir,Indhira Santos,Alexandre Borde Pdf

This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.

Author : Allen N. Berger,Mustafa U. Karakaplan,Raluca A. Roman
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 522 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2023-09-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780443152733

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The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World by Allen N. Berger,Mustafa U. Karakaplan,Raluca A. Roman Pdf

The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World: Expect the Unexpected provides an informed, research-based in-depth understanding of the COVID-19 crisis, its impacts on households, nonfinancial firms, banks, and financial market participants, and the effectiveness of the reactions of governments and policymakers in the United States and around the world. It provides reflections and perspectives on the social costs and benefits of various policies undertaken and a toolkit of preventive measures to deal with crises beyond the COVID-19 crisis. Authors Allen N. Berger, Mustafa U. Karakaplan, and Raluca A. Roman apply their expertise to the research and data on the COVID-19 economic crisis as well as draw on their own rich research experience. They take a holistic approach that compares and contrasts this crisis with other economic and financial crises and assesses economic and financial behavior and government policies in the booms before crises and the aftermaths following them, as well as the crises themselves. They do all this with a keen eye on “Expecting the Unexpected future crises, and policies that might anticipate them and provide better outcomes for society. Serves as a compendium of available research and data on COVID-19, policies in response to the pandemic, and its effects on the real economy, banking sector, and financial markets Contextualizes the COVID-19 economic crisis by comparing it to two other global crises from the past: the Crash of 1929 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 Helps illustrate how crises that originate in financial markets and in the banking sector differ from each other as well as from the COVID-19 crisis that harmed the real economy first Compares the policies and outcomes of nations to the COVID-19 pandemic and assesses their costs and benefits, with potential implications for prospective future crises

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
Page : 171 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2013-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9789290929505

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Investing in Resilience by Asian Development Bank Pdf

Investing in Resilience: Ensuring a Disaster-Resistant Future focuses on the steps required to ensure that investment in disaster resilience happens and that it occurs as an integral, systematic part of development. At-risk communities in Asia and the Pacific can apply a wide range of policy, capacity, and investment instruments and mechanisms to ensure that disaster risk is properly assessed, disaster risk is reduced, and residual risk is well managed. Yet, real progress in strengthening resilience has been slow to date and natural hazards continue to cause significant loss of life, damage, and disruption in the region, undermining inclusive, sustainable development. Investing in Resilience offers an approach and ideas for reflection on how to achieve disaster resilience. It does not prescribe specific courses of action but rather establishes a vision of a resilient future. It stresses the interconnectedness and complementarity of possible actions to achieve disaster resilience across a wide range of development policies, plans, legislation, sectors, and themes. The vision shows how resilience can be accomplished through the coordinated action of governments and their development partners in the private sector, civil society, and the international community. The vision encourages “investors” to identify and prioritize bundles of actions that collectively can realize that vision of resilience, breaking away from the current tendency to pursue disparate and fragmented disaster risk management measures that frequently trip and fall at unforeseen hurdles. Investing in Resilience aims to move the disaster risk reduction debate beyond rhetoric and to help channel commitments into investment, incentives, funding, and practical action

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2017-12-01
Category : Social Science
ISBN : 9789292610272

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Pacific Economic Monitor December 2017 by Asian Development Bank Pdf

This latest issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor highlights the gains of Pacific developing member countries (Pacific DMCs) and the challenges that the Pacific DMCs continue to face including the impacts of climate change. The Pacific is among those parts of the world most vulnerable to weather-related disasters. To illustrate, 5 of the top 15 countries with the highest risk, and 10 of the top 30 facing the largest potential economic losses from disasters, are in the subregion. With climate change bringing additional risks from global sea level rise---and potentially heightening vulnerability to more intense, frequent, and prolonged extreme weather events---Pacific economies are stepping up adaptation efforts to brace for future adverse impacts. These include climate-proofing vital infrastructure assets, strengthening disaster risk management, and expanding social safety nets to build resilience to disasters. Further, a number of Pacific economies are promoting green urban development to move toward more sustainable green cities. Careful monitoring and planning will also be required to manage important income flows, including fishing license fees and tourism-related revenues, amid climate-related volatilities and to maintain adequate fiscal buffers for disaster response.

Author : Douglas C. Dacy,Howard Kunreuther
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 296 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 1969
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : STANFORD:36105034919121

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The Economics of Natural Disasters by Douglas C. Dacy,Howard Kunreuther Pdf

Author : Ms.Nicole Laframboise,Mr.Boileau Loko
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 32 pages
File Size : 43,8 Mb
Release : 2012-10-09
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781475512717

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Natural Disasters by Ms.Nicole Laframboise,Mr.Boileau Loko Pdf

This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters and presents the IMF’s role in assisting countries coping with natural catastrophes. Focusing on seven country cases, the paper describes the emergency financing, policy support, and technical assistance provided by the Fund to help governments put together a policy response or build a macro framework to lay the foundation for recovery and/or unlock other external financing. The literature and experience suggests there are ways to strengthen policy frameworks to increase resilience to natural disaster shocks, including identifying the risks and probability of natural disasters and integrating them more explicitly into macro frame-works, increasing flexibility within fiscal frameworks, and improving coordination amongst international partners ex post and ex ante.

Author : Mr.Krishna Srinivasan,Ms.Inci Otker,Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan,Mr.Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 378 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2017-11-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484315194

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Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean by Mr.Krishna Srinivasan,Ms.Inci Otker,Ms.Uma Ramakrishnan,Mr.Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne Pdf

This book provides a diagnosis of the central economic and financial challenges facing Caribbean policymakers and offers broad policy recommendations for promoting a sustained and inclusive increase in economic well-being. The analysis highlights the need for Caribbean economies to make a concerted effort to break the feedback loops between weak macroeconomic fundamentals, notably pertaining to fiscal positions and financial sector strains, and structural impediments, such as high electricity costs, limited financial deepening, violent crime, and brain drain, which have depressed private investment and growth. A recurring theme in the book is the need for greater regional coordination in finding solutions to address the Caribbean’s shared and intertwined macroeconomic and structural challenges. The analysis suggests that strengthening regional and global market integration of Caribbean economies would provide an impetus to sustained growth in incomes and jobs. Greater regional and global economic integration would also facilitate structural transformation and a shift toward new economic activities, resulting in more diversified and less vulnerable economies. A central challenge for the Caribbean is thus to come together as a region, overcome the limitations posed by size, and garner the benefits of globalization. Efforts should build on existing regional arrangements; accelerating progress in implementing these agreements would stimulate trade. Policymakers could also promote deeper integration with Latin America and the rest of the world by pursuing new trade agreements, leveraging current agreements more effectively, or deepening them to include areas beyond traditional trade issues, and developing port and transport infrastructure.