Equilibrium Exchange Rates Of Central And Eastern European Countries On The Road To The European Monetary Union

Author : Jörg Rahn
Publisher : Peter Lang Publishing
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2005
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : IND:30000109310379

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Equilibrium Exchange Rates of Central and Eastern European Countries on the Road to the European Monetary Union by Jörg Rahn Pdf

The upcoming enlargement of the European Monetary Union involves the selection of appropriate reference rates at which the exchange rates of the accession countries will be fixed against the euro in order to avoid economic distortions as consequences of serious exchange rate misalignments. Determination of an exchange rate that is neither undervalued nor overvalued raises the issue of equilibrium exchange rates. Based on time series as well as panel estimation techniques three different concepts - BEER, PEER and PPP - are applied in this study to calculate equilibrium exchange rate levels for ten Central and Eastern European countries. The results indicate significant real misalignments in a number of accession countries.

Author : Paul J.J. Welfens
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 161 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783642569135

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European Monetary Union and Exchange Rate Dynamics by Paul J.J. Welfens Pdf

The creation of the European Central Bank and the Euro have brought new challenges to EU integration and economic policy. This book looks into issues of monetary and factor market policies. The analysis presents new theoretical and empirical research on the current decline of the Euro. Issues regarding exchange rate policies and international economic relations are also addressed.

Author : Mr.Angel J. Ubide,J. Humberto Lopez,Mr.Enrique Alberola Ila,Ms.Susana Garcia Cervero
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 1999-12-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451858730

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Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates by Mr.Angel J. Ubide,J. Humberto Lopez,Mr.Enrique Alberola Ila,Ms.Susana Garcia Cervero Pdf

This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.

Author : Isabell Koske
Publisher : Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften
Page : 212 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : IND:30000116722624

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Equilibrium Exchange Rate Models, the Euro and the 2004 Expansion of the EU by Isabell Koske Pdf

Since the launch of the euro in 1999, researchers, policy makers, and business analysts have put great interest in the evolution of the external value of the euro. In 2004 the European Monetary Union expanded its membership with the accession of ten countries from central and eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. As these countries are committed to adopt the euro as soon as they fulfill the Maastricht criteria, knowing their currencies' equilibrium value is of great policy interest. This study addresses these questions by deriving equilibrium exchange rate paths for the euro and for the currencies of the new EU member countries. Specifically, one part investigates in how far variations in seven bilateral nominal euro exchange rates can be explained by monetary factors and then estimates the equilibrium path of the real effective exchange rate of the euro based on the NATREX approach. The final chapters derive equilibrium exchange rate paths for the currencies of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, and the three Baltic countries using a small country version of the NATREX model.

Author : Philippe De Lombaerde
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 389 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 2017-11-30
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781351145879

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The Periphery of the Euro by Philippe De Lombaerde Pdf

This book analyzes the monetary and exchange rate policies in Eastern European countries not covered by the current EU enlargement process. Specifically the book examines the major CIS countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and the Ukraine. (The new Eastern European EU members are also frequently referenced for comparison purposes.) Current and prospective monetary policy options are considered and the applicability of the EU monetary integration experience for the CIS countries and the prospects of a monetary re-unification around the Russian Federation are assessed. This is the first book to formally deal with many of these questions.

Author : Jarko Fidrmuc,Jesús Crespo Cuaresma,Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1375342754

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The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rates in the Ceecs by Jarko Fidrmuc,Jesús Crespo Cuaresma,Ronald MacDonald Pdf

A panel data set for six Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) is used to estimate the monetary exchange rate model with panel cointegration methods, including the Pooled Mean Group estimator, the Fully Modified Least Square estimator and the Dynamic Least Square estimator. The monetary model is able to convincingly explain the long-run dynamics of exchange rates in CEECs, particularly when this is supplemented by a Balassa-Samuelson effect. We then use our long-run monetary estimates to compute equilibrium exchange rates. Finally, we discuss the implications for the accession of selected countries to the European Economic and Monetary Union.

Author : Mr.George Kopits
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 42 pages
File Size : 49,7 Mb
Release : 1999-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451842579

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Implications of EMU for Exchange Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe by Mr.George Kopits Pdf

In view of the requirements of Stage 2 of European Monetary Union (EMU) for accession to the European Union, this paper examines the desirability for, and the ability of, the lead candidates in Central and Eastern Europe to participate in the new exchange rate mechanism (ERM2) and eventually in EMU. For most of these countries the benefits are likely to outweigh the cost of participation. After successfully meeting the basic conditions (wage flexibility, prudent fiscal and monetary stance, financial system soundness) for ERM2, each candidate should be able to shadow the euro, with sufficient flexibility around the central rate, prior to formal participation. The paper concludes with a discussion of two policy dilemmas.

Author : Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 50,6 Mb
Release : 1999-07-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451972641

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Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU by Mr.Paul R. Masson Pdf

The more advanced Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) face an evolving set of considerations in choosing their exchange rate policies. On the one hand, capital mobility is increasing, and this imposes additional constraints on fixed exchange rate regimes, while trend real appreciation makes the combination of low inflation and exchange rate stability problematic. On the other hand, the objectives of EU and eventual EMU membership make attractive a peg to the euro at some stage in the transition. The paper discusses these conflicting considerations, and considers the feasibility of an alternative monetary framework, inflation targeting.

Author : Alberto Giovannini
Publisher : MIT Press
Page : 408 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 1995
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 0262071681

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The Debate on Money in Europe by Alberto Giovannini Pdf

Written from 1985 to 1992, the author's essays address such topics as the transition to a European monetary system, the design and functioning of a European Central Bank, curency reform, capital inflow, and exchange rates.

Author : United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on International Economics
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 162 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 1979
Category : Monetary policy
ISBN : UOM:39015004747518

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The European Monetary System, Problems and Prospects by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on International Economics Pdf

Author : Mr.Slavi T Slavov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 31 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 2017-03-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781475590951

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Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe by Mr.Slavi T Slavov Pdf

There are 13 countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. This paper uses the framework pioneered by Frankel and Wei (1994) and extended in Frankel and Wei (2008) to show that most of them have been tracking either the euro or the US dollar in recent years. Eight countries, all of them current or aspiring EU members, track the euro. Of the five countries keying on the US dollar in various degrees, all but one belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States. The paper shows that the extent to which each country’s currency tracks the euro (or the dollar) is correlated with the structure of its external trade and finance. However, some countries appear to track the EUR or USD to an extent which appears inconsistent with inflation targeting, trade or financial integration, or the extent of business cycle synchronization. The phenomenon is particularly pronounced among the countries in the CESEE euro bloc, which may be deliberately gravitating around the euro in anticipation of eventually joining the Euro Area.

Author : W. Max Corden
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 335 pages
File Size : 53,5 Mb
Release : 1994
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226115917

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Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System by W. Max Corden Pdf

This account of exchange rates in the international monetary system considers the issues in international macroeconomics. Using theoretical models of international economics it explains the effects of various policies and issues in macroeconomics.

Author : Mr.David K. H. Begg
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 92 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 1996-09-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451853056

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Monetary Policy in Central and Eastern Europe by Mr.David K. H. Begg Pdf

The paper uses data from transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe to assess four questions: (i) Did the standard blueprint for stabilization work, and was it implemented? (ii) To what extent was normal macroeconomics impeded by solvency problems in banks, and how successful have been policies to improve incentives within banks? (iii) Could financial markets and other infrastructure for monetary policy have been developed more quickly? (iv) How should transition economies respond to the monetary inflows that typically accompany success? The paper concludes by evaluating the changing advice offered by external agencies during the 1990s.

Author : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 1998-08-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451852950

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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia Pdf

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the particular measures representing exchange rate uncertainty. Particular attention is reserved for problems of simultaneous causality. The negative correlation between trade and bilateral volatility remains significant after controlling for the simultaneity bias. However, a Hausman test rejects the hypothesis of the absence of simultaneous causality.

Author : Jacques van Ypersele,Jean-Claude Koeune
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 152 pages
File Size : 44,8 Mb
Release : 1985
Category : Foreign exchange
ISBN : UCSC:32106005568354

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The European Monetary System by Jacques van Ypersele,Jean-Claude Koeune Pdf

Recoge: 1. International motives for the EEC iniative - 2. The EBB and flow of european monetary integration - 3. The EMS and the conditions for its proper operation - 4. Five years with EMS - 5. The furure of EMS.