Estimated Policy Rules For Capital Controls

Author : Gurnain Kaur Pasricha
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 60 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2020-06-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513546100

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Estimated Policy Rules for Capital Controls by Gurnain Kaur Pasricha Pdf

This paper borrows the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions from monetary policy literature to ask whether capital controls respond to macroprudential or mercantilist motivations. I explore this question using a novel, weekly dataset on capital control actions in 21 emerging economies from 2001 to 2015. I introduce a new proxy for mercantilist motivations: the weighted appreciation of an emerging-market currency against its top five trade competitors. This proxy Granger causes future net initiations of non-tariff barriers in most countries. Emerging markets systematically respond to both mercantilist and macroprudential motivations. Policymakers respond to trade competitiveness concerns by using both instruments—inflow tightening and outflow easing. They use only inflow tightening in response to macroprudential concerns. Policy is acyclical to foreign debt; however, high levels of this debt reduces countercyclicality to mercantilist concerns. Higher exchange rate pass-through to export prices, and having an inflation targeting regime with non-freely floating exchange rates, increase responsiveness to mercantilist concerns.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 98 pages
File Size : 45,8 Mb
Release : 2011-02-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498339353

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Recent Experiences in Managing Capital Inflows—Cross-Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Pdf

Emerging markets (EMs) are experiencing a surge in capital inflows, lifting asset prices and growth prospects. While inflows are typically beneficial for receiving countries, inflow surges can carry macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This paper reviews the recent experience of EMs in dealing with capital inflows and suggests a possible framework for IMF policy advice on the spectrum of measures available to policymakers to manage inflows, including macroeconomic policies, prudential measures and capital controls. Illustrative applications of this framework suggest that it may be appropriate for several countries, based on their current circumstances, to consider prudential measures or capital controls in response to capital inflows. The suggested framework is intended to inform staff policy advice to all Fund members with open capital accounts. It forms part of a broader effort to sharpen Fund surveillance, preserve evenhandedness, and foster greater global policy coordination. As indicated in the Supplement to this paper, this broader effort includes the development of “global rules of the game” on macroprudential policies, capital account liberalization, and reserve adequacy, and the preparation of spillover reports assessing spillovers from the five systemic economies—all of which will inform the current and broader framework being developed.

Author : Ms. Mitali Das,Ms. Gita Gopinath,Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2022-01-07
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781616358341

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Preemptive Policies and Risk-Off Shocks in Emerging Markets by Ms. Mitali Das,Ms. Gita Gopinath,Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan Pdf

We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.

Author : Eugenia Andreasen,Mr.Martin Schindler,Mr.Patricio A Valenzuela
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 26 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2017-06-09
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484303313

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Capital Controls and the Cost of Debt by Eugenia Andreasen,Mr.Martin Schindler,Mr.Patricio A Valenzuela Pdf

Using a panel data set for international corporate bonds and capital account restrictions in advanced and emerging economies, we show that restrictions on capital inflows produce a substantial and economically meaningful increase in corporate bond spreads. A number of heterogeneities suggest that the effect of capital controls on inflows is particularly strong for more financially constrained firms, establishing a novel channel through which capital controls affect economic outcomes. By contrast, we do not find a robust significant effect of restrictions on outflows.

Author : Sebastian Edwards
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
Page : 699 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2009-02-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780226184999

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Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies by Sebastian Edwards Pdf

Some scholars argue that the free movement of capital across borders enhances welfare; others claim it represents a clear peril, especially for emerging nations. In Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies, an esteemed group of contributors examines both the advantages and the pitfalls of restricting capital mobility in these emerging nations. In the aftermath of the East Asian currency crises of 1997, the authors consider mechanisms that eight countries have used to control capital inflows and evaluate their effectiveness in altering the maturity of the resulting external debt and reducing macroeconomic vulnerability. This volume is essential reading for all those interested in emerging nations and the costs and benefits of restricting international capital flows.

Author : Mr.R. G Gelos,Lucyna Gornicka,Mr.Robin Koepke,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Ms.Silvia Sgherri
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 51,9 Mb
Release : 2019-12-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781513522906

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Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows by Mr.R. G Gelos,Lucyna Gornicka,Mr.Robin Koepke,Ms.Ratna Sahay,Ms.Silvia Sgherri Pdf

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Lulu.com
Page : 294 pages
File Size : 46,6 Mb
Release : 2004
Category : Bank capital
ISBN : 9789291316694

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International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by Anonim Pdf

Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,MissMahvash Qureshi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 53,7 Mb
Release : 2016-02-12
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498333221

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What’s In a Name? That Which We Call Capital Controls by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,MissMahvash Qureshi Pdf

This paper investigates why controls on capital inflows have a bad name, and evoke such visceral opposition, by tracing how capital controls have been used and perceived, since the late nineteenth century. While advanced countries often employed capital controls to tame speculative inflows during the last century, we conjecture that several factors undermined their subsequent use as prudential tools. First, it appears that inflow controls became inextricably linked with outflow controls. The latter have typically been more pervasive, more stringent, and more linked to autocratic regimes, failed macroeconomic policies, and financial crisis—inflow controls are thus damned by this “guilt by association.” Second, capital account restrictions often tend to be associated with current account restrictions. As countries aspired to achieve greater trade integration, capital controls came to be viewed as incompatible with free trade. Third, as policy activism of the 1970s gave way to the free market ideology of the 1980s and 1990s, the use of capital controls, even on inflows and for prudential purposes, fell into disrepute.

Author : Mahmood Pradhan,Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan,Reza Baqir,Mr.Geoffrey Heenan,Sylwia Nowak,Ceyda Oner,Mr.Sanjaya Panth
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 45 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2011-04-20
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781463935122

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Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets by Mahmood Pradhan,Mr.Ravi Balakrishnan,Reza Baqir,Mr.Geoffrey Heenan,Sylwia Nowak,Ceyda Oner,Mr.Sanjaya Panth Pdf

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

Author : Masahiro Kawai,Mario B. Lamberte
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 465 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2010-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781849806879

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Managing Capital Flows by Masahiro Kawai,Mario B. Lamberte Pdf

Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Page : 54 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2020-10-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 1513558765

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Toward an Integrated Policy Framework by International Monetary Fund Pdf

Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.

Author : Mr.Steven Phillips,Mr.Luis Catão,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Ms.Mitali Das,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Ms.Filiz Unsal,Marola Castillo,Jungjin Lee,Jair Rodriguez,Mr.Mauricio Vargas
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 68 pages
File Size : 40,9 Mb
Release : 2014-01-13
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781484346785

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The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology by Mr.Steven Phillips,Mr.Luis Catão,Mr.Luca Antonio Ricci,Mr.Rudolfs Bems,Ms.Mitali Das,Mr.Julian Di Giovanni,Ms.Filiz Unsal,Marola Castillo,Jungjin Lee,Jair Rodriguez,Mr.Mauricio Vargas Pdf

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF’s Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (“2.0”) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its further development.

Author : Paolo Giordani,Michele Ruta,Hans Weisfeld,Ling Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 47 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2014-08-08
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498317498

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Capital Flow Deflection by Paolo Giordani,Michele Ruta,Hans Weisfeld,Ling Zhu Pdf

This paper focuses on the coordination problem among borrowing countries imposing controls on capital infl ows. In a simple model of capital flows and controls, we show that inflow restrictions distort international capital flows to other countries and that, in turn, such capital flow deflection may lead to a policy response. We then test the theory using data on inflow restrictions and gross capital inflows for a large sample of developing countries between 1995 and 2009. Our estimation yields strong evidence that capital controls deflect capital flows to other borrowing countries with similar economic characteristics. Notwithstanding these strong cross-border spillover effects, we do not find evidence of a policy response.

Author : Masahiro Kawai,Peter J. Morgan,Shinji Takagi
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 321 pages
File Size : 44,6 Mb
Release : 2012-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780857933355

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Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia by Masahiro Kawai,Peter J. Morgan,Shinji Takagi Pdf

Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 64 pages
File Size : 47,7 Mb
Release : 2013-10-06
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781498341714

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Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Pdf

The countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) was proposed by the Basel committee to increase the resilience of the banking sector to negative shocks. The interactions between banking sector losses and the real economy highlight the importance of building a capital buffer in periods when systemic risks are rising. Basel III introduces a framework for a time-varying capital buffer on top of the minimum capital requirement and another time-invariant buffer (the conservation buffer). The CCB aims to make banks more resilient against imbalances in credit markets and thereby enhance medium-term prospects of the economy—in good times when system-wide risks are growing, the regulators could impose the CCB which would help the banks to withstand losses in bad times.