Evolution Of Scenario Planning

Author : George Burt
Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2023-10-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783110792065

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Evolution of Scenario Planning by George Burt Pdf

Scenario planning is a long and well-established approach to help leaders create novel insights and challenge what they know of the world to influence future action. But as the world becomes increasingly unpredictable, leaders must question the traditional mode of analysing the contextual environment and adopt new capabilities to embrace change while they redefine and reframe their organisation for the future. The Evolution of Scenario Planning explores the pervasive nature of change. It provides a contemporary approach to using scenarios as strategic conversation to embrace experiences – past and present – to create novel understanding and insights. The book uses case studies and practical examples to guide facilitators in applying the scenario process in their organisation. Leaders, senior managers, consultants and academics will learn how to engage with scenarios as a central element of strategy and better understand their role in strategic leadership. They will also gain insight into the skills and capabilities revealed during the process of strategic conversation, where ambiguity and equivocality is a natural feature of such conversation. The Evolution of Scenario Planning makes a compelling case for using scenarios to enable leaders to develop foresight and attunement to grasp the ongoing dynamic of their uncertain and ambiguous world.

Author : Ute Von Reibnitz
Publisher : McGraw-Hill Companies
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 1989-01-01
Category : Forecasting
ISBN : 0070659311

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Scenario Techniques by Ute Von Reibnitz Pdf

Author : Thomas J Chermack
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
Page : 290 pages
File Size : 40,7 Mb
Release : 2017-02-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317279402

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Foundations of Scenario Planning by Thomas J Chermack Pdf

Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lead a team that foresaw the oil crises of the 1970’s and 80’s. This new volume will cover the basic context of his life timeline and attach it to the development of his thinking about scenario planning over the course of his career. After his death, Wack’s materials, papers and documents were collected by Napier Collyns and have recently been made available at the University of Oxford where the Pierre Wack Memorial Library has been established. These documents contain a variety of clues and stories that reveal more about who Pierre Wack was, how he thought and will provide details about scenario planning that have never been seen or published. They also reveal a curious man and include a timeline written by his wife, Eve, which details their relationship over the course of 40 years. Written for management and business historians and researchers, this book will uncover unseen contributions by a scenario planning pioneer shaped by significant events in his personal life that helped him to see the world differently.

Author : Mats Lindgren,H. Bandhold
Publisher : Springer
Page : 204 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2009-03-31
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230233584

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Scenario Planning - Revised and Updated by Mats Lindgren,H. Bandhold Pdf

Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long-term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and case studies to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy and innovation.

Author : Thomas J Chermack
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2017-02-03
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781317279396

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Foundations of Scenario Planning by Thomas J Chermack Pdf

Pierre Wack was head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch / Shell Oil in London for just over ten years. He died in 1997. He was a pioneer of what we know today as scenario planning – an alternative and complement to strategic planning. Scenarios explore a variety of possible futures for examining decisions in organizational planning. Pierre was a unique man with interests in Indian and Japanese cultures and traditions. He travelled extensively and led a unique life that involved long periods of visiting gurus in India and extended sabbaticals in Japan. His experiences with Eastern thought no doubt shaped his ability to evolve the scenario method at Shell, and as a result he was able to lead a team that foresaw the oil crises of the 1970’s and 80’s. This new volume will cover the basic context of his life timeline and attach it to the development of his thinking about scenario planning over the course of his career. After his death, Wack’s materials, papers and documents were collected by Napier Collyns and have recently been made available at the University of Oxford where the Pierre Wack Memorial Library has been established. These documents contain a variety of clues and stories that reveal more about who Pierre Wack was, how he thought and will provide details about scenario planning that have never been seen or published. They also reveal a curious man and include a timeline written by his wife, Eve, which details their relationship over the course of 40 years. Written for management and business historians and researchers, this book will uncover unseen contributions by a scenario planning pioneer shaped by significant events in his personal life that helped him to see the world differently.

Author : Paul Schoemaker
Publisher : Elgar Advanced Introductions series
Page : 176 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2022-06-28
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1800376812

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Advanced Introduction to Scenario Planning by Paul Schoemaker Pdf

Elgar Advanced Introductions are stimulating and thoughtful introductions to major fields in the social sciences, business and law, expertly written by the world's leading scholars. Designed to be accessible yet rigorous, they offer concise and lucid surveys of the substantive and policy issues associated with discrete subject areas. Providing a panoramic overview of the evolving world of scenario planning, this Advanced Introduction uses topical case studies to analyze the developing methodologies of scenario planning. Written by Paul J.H. Schoemaker, a leading authority on the topic, this book synthesizes rigorous theory and practical experiences including best practises, normative views, and future challenges or opportunities for scenario planning. Key Features: Explains why future uncertainties require more than traditional risk analysis when ambiguous unknowns or Black Swans are involved Illustrates scenario planning through an in-depth case analysis of the biosciences which, in the wake of global pandemics, are gaining in societal import Examines how historical thinking and historiography can enrich scenarios by revisiting future projections made for South Africa post-apartheid Shows why scenario planning fosters critical and creative thinking by overcoming myopic framing, overconfidence and other biases in organizations Examines methodological and statistical techniques in scenario planning, including model building and simulations, and their connections to strategy formulation Interdisciplinary in its approach, this Advanced Introduction will prove invaluable to students and scholars of public policy, business management, and organizational studies. Its tools and practical advice will also be a vital resource to practitioners and policy leaders involved in leading or implementing scenario planning in their organizations.

Author : Rafael Ramirez,Angela Wilkinson
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Page : 275 pages
File Size : 55,5 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780198745693

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Strategic Reframing by Rafael Ramirez,Angela Wilkinson Pdf

Traditional strategy assumes stability and predictability. Today's world is better characterised by turbulence, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity - conditions that contribute disruptive changes and trigger the search for new ways of coping. This book aims to become the premier guide on how to do scenario planning to support strategy and public policy. Co-authored by three experts in the field, the book presents The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA). The approach is both intellectually rigorous and practical. Methodological choices and theoretical aspects in practice are detailed in reference to the relevant literatures and grounded in 6 case studies the authors have been involved with. The book makes several contributions to the field, centred on how learning with scenario planning is supported by re-framing and re-perception; how this iterative process can be embedded in corporate or government settings, and how it helps those that it supports to do well in today's world. The book is written in an accessible style and will be a useful introductory text as well as a useful guide for the more experienced scenario planning practitioner and scholar.

Author : Gill Ringland
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 506 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2006-03-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : IND:30000109190862

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Scenario Planning by Gill Ringland Pdf

This text provides a straightforward account of scenario planning making this important area accessible to business decision makers, as well as corporate planners.

Author : Robert Goodspeed
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 288 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2020
Category : City planning
ISBN : 1558444009

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Scenario Planning for Cities and Regions by Robert Goodspeed Pdf

""Describes the emerging use of collaborative scenario planning practices in urban and regional planning, and includes case studies, an overview of digital tools, and a project evaluation framework. Concludes with a discussion of how scenarios can be used to address urban inequalities. Intended for a broad audience"--Provided by the publisher"--

Author : Burkhard Schwenker,Torsten Wulf
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 219 pages
File Size : 46,7 Mb
Release : 2013-12-05
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783658028756

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Scenario-based Strategic Planning by Burkhard Schwenker,Torsten Wulf Pdf

In a world characterized by increasing complexity and volatility, managers must be able to flexibly adapt their strategies to changing environmental conditions. Traditional strategic management frameworks often fail in this context. Therefore, we present "scenario-based strategic planning" as a framework for strategic management in an uncertain world. Previous approaches to scenario planning were complex and focused on the long term, but the approach developed by Roland Berger and the Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management is different. By designing appropriate tools and integrating scenario planning into strategic planning, we have made our approach less complex and easier for firms to apply. We illustrate the approach with examples from different industries.

Author : Woody Wade
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 212 pages
File Size : 47,9 Mb
Release : 2012-03-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781118170151

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Scenario Planning by Woody Wade Pdf

Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized, business tool that can be of immense value to a company's strategic planning process. It allows companies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on their competitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emerge beyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you: Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could change the political, social, and economic landscapes and significantly impact your business Explore the impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business Examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems today This visual book will help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?

Author : R. Bradley MacKay,Peter McKiernan
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 175 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2018-10-04
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781108664318

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Scenario Thinking by R. Bradley MacKay,Peter McKiernan Pdf

This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.

Author : Birgit Boldt
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Page : 21 pages
File Size : 48,6 Mb
Release : 2004-01-10
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783638243988

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Scenario Development by Birgit Boldt Pdf

Seminar paper from the year 2003 in the subject Business economics - Marketing, Corporate Communication, CRM, Market Research, Social Media, grade: Good, Kiel University of Applied Sciences (Economics), course: Strategic Marketing, 10 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: There are many different methodologies for assessing the future environment of an enterprise. But it is quite difficult to anticipate the future development successfully. Three examples illustrate this problem: • “In 1943 Thomas Watson, who was then chairman of IBM, forecast a world market for about five computers. • In 1970, Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, said no one needed to have a personal computer at home. (Of interest is that Ken ́s company was purchased by Compaq - one of the leaders in home computers). • In 1981, Microsoft ́s founder Bill Gates said that 640K would be enough memory for anyone. (Microsoft was also slow to take advantage of the early Internet - releasing Internet Explorer in August 1995, well after Netscape Navigator, which had taken a dominant lead in the early browser market.)” These examples show that it can have disadvantageous consequences to rely on one apparently safe forecast. Scenario planning is a technique that allows to operate in planning with more than one possible future. This treatise describes the very interesting methodology of scenario development and demonstrates how to use it in an eight step procedure. Concluding, it shows how the oil company Shell had a remarkable success in the 1970s by using scenario planning and gives an assessment of this remarkable technique.

Author : Rosanna Fornasiero,Saskia Sardesai,Ana Cristina Barros,Aristides Matopoulos
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 298 pages
File Size : 52,7 Mb
Release : 2020-12-31
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9783030635053

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Next Generation Supply Chains by Rosanna Fornasiero,Saskia Sardesai,Ana Cristina Barros,Aristides Matopoulos Pdf

This open access book explores supply chains strategies to help companies face challenges such as societal emergency, digitalization, climate changes and scarcity of resources. The book identifies industrial scenarios for the next decade based on the analysis of trends at social, economic, environmental technological and political level, and examines how they may impact on supply chain processes and how to design next generation supply chains to answer these challenges. By mapping enabling technologies for supply chain innovation, the book proposes a roadmap for the full implementation of the supply chain strategies based on the integration of production and logistics processes. Case studies from process industry, discrete manufacturing, distribution and logistics, as well as ICT providers are provided, and policy recommendations are put forward to support companies in this transformative process.

Author : Adam Kahane
Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Page : 150 pages
File Size : 42,9 Mb
Release : 2012-10-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781609944902

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Transformative Scenario Planning by Adam Kahane Pdf

Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another and their systems. In this simple and practical book, Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it.