Examination Of Solar Cycle Statistical Model And New Prediction Of Solar Cycle 23
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Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 by Myung-Hee Y. Kim Pdf
Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.
Author : National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa Publisher : Independently Published Page : 34 pages File Size : 54,5 Mb Release : 2018-09-27 Category : Science ISBN : 1724082612
Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa Pdf
Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available. Kim, Myung-Hee Y. and Wilson, John W. Langley Research Center NASA/TP-2000-210536, L-18020, NAS 1.60:210536
An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Pdf
Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.Kim, Myung-Hee Y. and Wilson, John W. and Cucinotta, Francis A.Johnson Space Center; Langley Research CenterMATHEMATICAL MODELS; SUNSPOT CYCLE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; SOLAR CYCLES; SOLAR PHYSICS; RADIATION DOSAGE; RADIATION EFFECTS; RADIATION ABSORPTION; SUN
Safety Design for Space Systems by Gary E. Musgrave Ph.D,Axel Larsen,Tommaso Sgobba Pdf
Progress in space safety lies in the acceptance of safety design and engineering as an integral part of the design and implementation process for new space systems. Safety must be seen as the principle design driver of utmost importance from the outset of the design process, which is only achieved through a culture change that moves all stakeholders toward front-end loaded safety concepts. This approach entails a common understanding and mastering of basic principles of safety design for space systems at all levels of the program organisation. Fully supported by the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS), written by the leading figures in the industry, with frontline experience from projects ranging from the Apollo missions, Skylab, the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, this book provides a comprehensive reference for aerospace engineers in industry. It addresses each of the key elements that impact on space systems safety, including: the space environment (natural and induced); human physiology in space; human rating factors; emergency capabilities; launch propellants and oxidizer systems; life support systems; battery and fuel cell safety; nuclear power generators (NPG) safety; habitat activities; fire protection; safety-critical software development; collision avoidance systems design; operations and on-orbit maintenance. * The only comprehensive space systems safety reference, its must-have status within space agencies and suppliers, technical and aerospace libraries is practically guaranteed * Written by the leading figures in the industry from NASA, ESA, JAXA, (et cetera), with frontline experience from projects ranging from the Apollo missions, Skylab, the Space Shuttle, small and large satellite systems, and the International Space Station. * Superb quality information for engineers, programme managers, suppliers and aerospace technologists; fully supported by the IAASS (International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety)
The Solar Dynamics Observatory by Phillip Chamberlin,William Dean Pesnell,Barbara Thompson Pdf
This volume is dedicated to the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which was launched 11 February 2010. The articles focus on the spacecraft and its instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). Articles within also describe calibration results and data processing pipelines that are critical to understanding the data and products, concluding with a description of the successful Education and Public Outreach activities. This book is geared towards anyone interested in using the unprecedented data from SDO, whether for fundamental heliophysics research, space weather modeling and forecasting, or educational purposes. Previously published in Solar Physics journal, Vol. 275/1-2, 2012. Selected articles in this book are published open access under a CC BY-NC 2.5 license at link.springer.com. For further details, please see the license information in the chapters.
A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.
Safety Design for Space Systems by Tommaso Sgobba,Gary Eugene Musgrave,Gary Johnson,Michael T. Kezirian Pdf
The lack of widespread education in space safety engineering and management has profound effects on project team effectiveness in integrating safety during design. On one side, it slows down the professional development of junior safety engineers, while on the other side it creates a sectarian attitude that isolates safety engineers from the rest of the project team. To speed up professional development, bridge the gap within the team, and prevent hampered communication and missed feedback, the entire project team needs to acquire and develop a shared culture of space safety principles and techniques.The second edition of Safety Design for Space Systems continues to address these issues with substantial updates to chapters such as battery safety, life support systems, robotic systems safety, and fire safety. This book also features new chapters on crew survivability design and nuclear space systems safety. Finally, the discussion of human rating concepts, safety-by-design principles, and safety management practices have also been revised and improved. With contributions from leading experts worldwide, this second edition represents an essential educational resource and reference tool for engineers and managers working on space projects. Provides basic multidisciplinary knowledge on space systems safety design Addresses how space safety engineering and management can be implemented in practice Includes new chapters on crew survivability design and nuclear space systems safety Fully revised and updated to reflect the latest developments in the field
Multi-Wavelength Investigations of Solar Activity (IAU S223) by International Astronomical Union. Symposium Pdf
These Proceedings present the most recent results from the highly successful international solar space missions (SOHO, CORONAS-F, TRACE, RHESSI, YOHKOH) and ground observatories around the Earth, reported at the IAU Symposium 223 held in St. Petersburg, Russia, June 14-19, 2004. These include discussions of the current theories of solar dynamics and activity, new constraints provided by the multi-wavelength observations of the Sun from the interior to the heliosphere, as well as discussions of future coordinated plans and efforts of multi-wavelength investigations of the Sun. The Proceedings contain the material of seven plenary sessions and three round-table discussions
Literature 1997, Part 1 by Astronomisches Rechen-InstitutARI Pdf
Astronomy and Astrophysics Abstracts is devoted to the recording, summarizing and indexing of astronomical publications throughout the world. Two volumes are scheduled to appear per year. Volume 67 records 10,903 papers covering besides the classical fields of astronomy and astrophysics such matters as space flights related to astronomy, lunar and planetary probes and satellites, meteorites and interplanetary matter, X rays and cosmic rays, quasars and pulsars. The abstracts are classified under more than one hundred subject categories thus permitting quick surveying of the bulk of material published on the same topic within six months. For instance, this volume records 119 papers on minor planets, 155 papers on supernovae, and 554 papers on cosmology.