Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis

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Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Tim Bedford,Simon French
Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis Book PDF

Author : Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Tim Bedford,Simon French
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 503 pages
File Size : 51,8 Mb
Release : 2021-02-19
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030464745

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Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by Anca M. Hanea,Gabriela F. Nane,Tim Bedford,Simon French Pdf

This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Paul Goodwin,George Wright
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment Book PDF

Author : Paul Goodwin,George Wright
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 482 pages
File Size : 47,8 Mb
Release : 1998
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : PSU:000033815695

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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment by Paul Goodwin,George Wright Pdf

This edition integrates the latest decision analysis material from a range of disciplines including OR, Statistics and Psychology. The authors make it accessible to its largest group of potential users: managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. It shows how difficult decisions can be made with greater insight and confidence and challenges the adequacy of making decisions on the basis of intuition alone.

Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting: Uncertainty, Bayesian analysis and expert judgement

Klaus Böcker
Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting Uncertainty Bayesian analysis and expert judgement Book PDF

Author : Klaus Böcker
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2010
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
ISBN : 1906348405

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Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting: Uncertainty, Bayesian analysis and expert judgement by Klaus Böcker Pdf

Provides a thorough and rigorous introduction to Bayesian analysis and expert judgment, before moving to more technical content focusing on including stress testing and risk aggregation. A final section is devoted to fundamentals, issues of risk management, such as the nature of risk and cognitive aspects of uncertainty.

Making Essential Choices with Scant Information

T. Williams,K. Samset,K. Sunnevåg
Making Essential Choices with Scant Information Book PDF

Author : T. Williams,K. Samset,K. Sunnevåg
Publisher : Springer
Page : 417 pages
File Size : 41,8 Mb
Release : 2009-03-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9780230236837

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Making Essential Choices with Scant Information by T. Williams,K. Samset,K. Sunnevåg Pdf

An in-depth look at how to improve decisions on major projects at the concept stage, when there is scant information available. This book describes how to evaluate judgemental information. It looks at how scant information can actually be a strength, and can help establish a broad overall perspective.

Uncertain Judgements

Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J. Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite,David J. Jenkinson,Jeremy E. Oakley,Tim Rakow
Uncertain Judgements Book PDF

Author : Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J. Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite,David J. Jenkinson,Jeremy E. Oakley,Tim Rakow
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 338 pages
File Size : 48,7 Mb
Release : 2006-08-30
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470033302

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Uncertain Judgements by Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J. Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite,David J. Jenkinson,Jeremy E. Oakley,Tim Rakow Pdf

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment

Anonim
Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment Book PDF

Author : Anonim
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 2163 pages
File Size : 50,5 Mb
Release : 2008-09-02
Category : Mathematics
ISBN : 9780470035498

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Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment by Anonim Pdf

Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.

Elicitation

Luis C. Dias,Alec Morton,John Quigley
Elicitation Book PDF

Author : Luis C. Dias,Alec Morton,John Quigley
Publisher : Springer
Page : 542 pages
File Size : 45,7 Mb
Release : 2017-11-16
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319650524

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Elicitation by Luis C. Dias,Alec Morton,John Quigley Pdf

This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.

Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management

Mark Burgman
Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management Book PDF

Author : Mark Burgman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 520 pages
File Size : 42,5 Mb
Release : 2005-04-07
Category : Medical
ISBN : 0521543010

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Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management by Mark Burgman Pdf

Describes how to conduct a complete environmental risk assessment for students, researchers and professionals in ecology, conservation and resource management.

Trusting Judgements

Mark A. Burgman
Trusting Judgements Book PDF

Author : Mark A. Burgman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 215 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781107112087

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Trusting Judgements by Mark A. Burgman Pdf

Even experienced experts can be biased and overconfident. This book explains how to ensure experts provide reliable scientific advice.

Educational Research and Innovation AI and the Future of Skills, Volume 2 Methods for Evaluating AI Capabilities

OECD
Educational Research and Innovation AI and the Future of Skills Volume 2 Methods for Evaluating AI Capabilities Book PDF

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 180 pages
File Size : 46,5 Mb
Release : 2023-11-16
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264824294

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Educational Research and Innovation AI and the Future of Skills, Volume 2 Methods for Evaluating AI Capabilities by OECD Pdf

This volume describes the second phase of the project: exploring three different approaches to assessing AI.

The Digital Supply Chain

Bart L. MacCarthy,Dmitry Ivanov
The Digital Supply Chain Book PDF

Author : Bart L. MacCarthy,Dmitry Ivanov
Publisher : Elsevier
Page : 466 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2022-06-09
Category : Transportation
ISBN : 9780323916158

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The Digital Supply Chain by Bart L. MacCarthy,Dmitry Ivanov Pdf

The Digital Supply Chain is a thorough investigation of the underpinning technologies, systems, platforms and models that enable the design, management, and control of digitally connected supply chains. The book examines the origin, emergence and building blocks of the Digital Supply Chain, showing how and where the virtual and physical supply chain worlds interact. It reviews the enabling technologies that underpin digitally controlled supply chains and examines how the discipline of supply chain management is affected by enhanced digital connectivity, discussing purchasing and procurement, supply chain traceability, performance management, and supply chain cyber security. The book provides a rich set of cases on current digital practices and challenges across a range of industrial and business sectors including the retail, textiles and clothing, the automotive industry, food, shipping and international logistics, and SMEs. It concludes with research frontiers, discussing network science for supply chain analysis, challenges in Blockchain applications and in digital supply chain surveillance, as well as the need to re-conceptualize supply chain strategies for digitally transformed supply chains.

Transforming Conservation

William J. Sutherland
Transforming Conservation Book PDF

Author : William J. Sutherland
Publisher : Open Book Publishers
Page : 351 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2022-12-07
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781800648593

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Transforming Conservation by William J. Sutherland Pdf

There are severe problems with the decision-making processes currently widely used, leading to ineffective use of evidence, faulty decisions, wasting of resources and the erosion of public and political support. In this book an international team of experts provide solutions. The transformation suggested includes rethinking how evidence is assessed, combined, communicated and used in decision-making; using effective methods when asking experts to make judgements (i.e. avoiding just asking an expert or a group of experts!); using a structured process for making decisions that incorporate the evidence and having effective processes for learning from actions. In each case, the specific problem with decision making is described with a range of practical solutions. Adopting this approach to decision-making requires societal change so detailed suggestions are made for transforming organisations, governments, businesses, funders and philanthropists. The practical suggestions include twelve downloadable checklists. The vision of the authors is to transform conservation so it is more effective, more cost-efficient, learns from practice and is more attractive to funders. However, the lessons of this important book go well beyond conservation to decision-makers in any field.

Risk Analysis and Decision Processes

H.C. Kunreuther,J. Linnerooth,J. Lathrop,H. Atz,S. Macgill,C. Mandl,Martin Schwarz,M. Thompson
Risk Analysis and Decision Processes Book PDF

Author : H.C. Kunreuther,J. Linnerooth,J. Lathrop,H. Atz,S. Macgill,C. Mandl,Martin Schwarz,M. Thompson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2012-12-06
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783642821288

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Risk Analysis and Decision Processes by H.C. Kunreuther,J. Linnerooth,J. Lathrop,H. Atz,S. Macgill,C. Mandl,Martin Schwarz,M. Thompson Pdf

For old and new studies in decision making and risk analysis, this book should stand at tlle watershed. Studies of conflict resolution and public policy will surely now have to take account of the model investigation provided by the IIASA team, and many things will not be the same again. This is a report of inquiries into the siting of liquefied energy gas (LEG) facilities in the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The risks of transporting this highly combustible stuff, and the economic benefits of being able to bring a natural energy source from one side of the globe to the other, holding it, and piping it out as needed, make LEG a model case for studying the public response to dangerous technology. The dangers of LEG are differ ent from those of nuclear power, for instance, where the response too often becomes entangled with the fear of nuclear war. The dangers of LEG include unco~trollable explosions, rather than insidious contami nation. But the degree of dangerousness is very much of the same order as that of nuclear power, and is at least as difficult to assess. In four different countries the constitutional procedures involved in obtaining approval of nuclear or LEG facilities are on record. The four case histories here are a model for comparative study of conflict resolu tion. The period over which the negotiations developed is much the same.

Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries

Delia Grace,Bassirou Bonfoh,Hung Nguyen-Viet,Barbara Häsler
Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries Book PDF

Author : Delia Grace,Bassirou Bonfoh,Hung Nguyen-Viet,Barbara Häsler
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 305 pages
File Size : 49,9 Mb
Release : 2024-02-23
Category : Technology & Engineering
ISBN : 9782832545225

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Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries by Delia Grace,Bassirou Bonfoh,Hung Nguyen-Viet,Barbara Häsler Pdf

Foodborne diseases (FBD) are an important externality of agriculture and food systems, but only recently have they risen up the development agenda as the result of growing awareness of the health and economic burdens of FBD and how they relate to food systems with a focus on low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC), particularly African nations. The health burden of FBD is comparable with that of malaria, and over 90% falls on people in LMIC, with an economic burden of more than US$100 million per year. FBD have many other, less well-estimated effects on nutrition, gender, equity, and the environment. While understanding of food safety in domestic markets of LMICs has advanced greatly, risk management is in its infancy. This Research Topic will bring together leading regional perspectives on food safety in LMICs.

Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Climate Change 2022 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Book PDF

Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 3070 pages
File Size : 49,5 Mb
Release : 2023-06-22
Category : Science
ISBN : 9781009445382

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Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Pdf

The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.