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Exploring the Concept of Climate Surprises by M. H. Glantz Pdf
Examines the concept of climate surprise & its implications for environmental policymaking. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology military, medicine, humor, agriculture, etc. Draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise & examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. Surprise is a subject concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, & level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instance of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered. Discusses techniques used in current assessment models & how climate surprise might be included in future models.
United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space
Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Publisher : Unknown Page : 164 pages File Size : 53,7 Mb Release : 1989 Category : Climatic changes ISBN : STANFORD:36105045209132
Climate Surprises by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space Pdf
National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Polar Research Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Abrupt Climate Change
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Polar Research Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Abrupt Climate Change Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 252 pages File Size : 44,7 Mb Release : 2002-04-23 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309133043
Abrupt Climate Change by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Polar Research Board,Ocean Studies Board,Committee on Abrupt Climate Change Pdf
The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future.
National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts Publisher : National Academies Press Page : 281 pages File Size : 50,9 Mb Release : 2013-12-31 Category : Science ISBN : 9780309287760
Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change by National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Understanding and Monitoring Abrupt Climate Change and Its Impacts Pdf
Climate is changing, forced out of the range of the past million years by levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not seen in the Earth's atmosphere for a very, very long time. Lacking action by the world's nations, it is clear that the planet will be warmer, sea level will rise, and patterns of rainfall will change. But the future is also partly uncertain-there is considerable uncertainty about how we will arrive at that different climate. Will the changes be gradual, allowing natural systems and societal infrastructure to adjust in a timely fashion? Or will some of the changes be more abrupt, crossing some threshold or "tipping point" to change so fast that the time between when a problem is recognized and when action is required shrinks to the point where orderly adaptation is not possible? Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change is an updated look at the issue of abrupt climate change and its potential impacts. This study differs from previous treatments of abrupt changes by focusing on abrupt climate changes and also abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the physical climate system, natural systems, or human systems, often affecting multiple interconnected areas of concern. The primary timescale of concern is years to decades. A key characteristic of these changes is that they can come faster than expected, planned, or budgeted for, forcing more reactive, rather than proactive, modes of behavior. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises.
Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making by M. Granger Morgan Pdf
This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.
Encyclopedia of Environmental Change by John A Matthews Pdf
Accessibly written by a team of international authors, the Encyclopedia of Environmental Change provides a gateway to the complex facts, concepts, techniques, methodology and philosophy of environmental change. This three-volume set illustrates and examines topics within this dynamic and rapidly changing interdisciplinary field. The encyclopedia includes all of the following aspects of environmental change: Diverse evidence of environmental change, including climate change and changes on land and in the oceans Underlying natural and anthropogenic causes and mechanisms Wide-ranging local, regional and global impacts from the polar regions to the tropics Responses of geo-ecosystems and human-environmental systems in the face of past, present and future environmental change Approaches, methodologies and techniques used for reconstructing, dating, monitoring, modelling, projecting and predicting change Social, economic and political dimensions of environmental issues, environmental conservation and management and environmental policy Over 4,000 entries explore the following key themes and more: Conservation Demographic change Environmental management Environmental policy Environmental security Food security Glaciation Green Revolution Human impact on environment Industrialization Landuse change Military impacts on environment Mining and mining impacts Nuclear energy Pollution Renewable resources Solar energy Sustainability Tourism Trade Water resources Water security Wildlife conservation The comprehensive coverage of terminology includes layers of entries ranging from one-line definitions to short essays, making this an invaluable companion for any student of physical geography, environmental geography or environmental sciences.
Environmental Change and Human Development by Chris Barrow Pdf
Environmental Change and Human Development focuses on environmental change and human fortunes. While there is a large and rapidly expanding literature dealing with how people affect the environment, less attention has been given in recent years to how the environment shapes human development. In an ever more crowded world there is a need for anticipatory environmental management, and a crucial input to this is consideration of the interaction between environment and humans. The environment is not as stable, benign or controllable as people like to think. The world population is vastly larger than it has ever been and is still growing, and humans increasingly upset nature through pollution and other activities. While modern communications may help environmental managers, rapid travel also increases the dispersal of diseases and pests. Technological advance and social development is not all beneficial; some innovations have the effect of making people more vulnerable to disruption by natural disaster, and citizens are often less able to cope with changed conditions than people were in the past. Environmental Change and Human Development addresses key issues such as soil degredation, natural climatic variations and volcanic activity, and provides geography and earth sciences students with an essential introduciton to the major debates surrounding this topic.
Foresight in Action by Marjolein van Asselt,Susan van 't Klooster Pdf
Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what the major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.
Rising sea levels and altered weather patterns are expected to significantly alter coastal and inland environments for humans, infrastructure and ecosystems. Potential land-use changes and population increases, coupled with uncertain predictions for sea level rise and storm frequency/intensity represent a significant planning challenge. While efforts to mitigate climate change continue, plans must be made to adapt to the risks that climate change poses to humans, infrastructure, and ecosystems alike. This book addresses integrated environmental assessment and management as part of the nexus of climate change adaptation. Risk analysis has emerged as a useful approach to guide assessment, communication and management of security risks. However, with respect to climate change, an integrated, multi-criteria, multi-hazard, risk-informed decision framework is desirable for evaluating adaptation strategies. The papers in Part 1 summarize societal and political needs for climate change adaptation. Part 2 includes papers summarizing the state of the art in climate change adaptation. Three further parts cover: the process of change in coastal regions, in inland regions, and, finally, the potential challenges to homeland security for national governments. Each of these parts reviews achievements, identifies gaps in current knowledge, and suggests research priorities.
Global Environmental Risk by Jeanne X. Kasperson,Roger E. Kasperson Pdf
Despite international initiatives such as the Earth Summit in 1992 and ongoing efforts to implement the Kyoto Protocol, human activities continue to register a destructive toll on the planetary environment. At root, research on global environmental risk seeks new pathways for reversing unsustainable trends, curtailing ongoing destructive activities, and creating a life-sustaining planet. This book takes stock of the distinctive challenges posed by global environmental risks, the capacity of knowledge systems to identify and characterize such risks, and the competence of human society to manage the unprecedented complexity. Particular attention trains on engaging, in ways conducive to enhancing social learning and adaptation, the large uncertainties inherent in these risks. Various chapters enlist different scales of analysis to explore the manifestation and causes of global environmental risks in all the diversity of their regional expression. Throughout, the editors and contributors accord prominence to the vulnerability of people and places to environmental degradation. Understanding vulnerability is a neglected key to assessing the nature of the risks and determining strategies for altering trajectories of threat. Global risk futures, the editors argue, are not intractable, and are still amenable to a risk-analysis enterprise that is democratic in principle, humanistic in concept, and geared to the realities that pertain to the particular societies, locales, and regions that will ultimately bear the risk.
The Archaeology of Tribal Societies by William A. Parkinson Pdf
Anthropological archaeologists have long attempted to develop models that will let them better understand the evolution of human social organization. In our search to understand how chiefdoms and states evolve, and how those societies differ from egalitarian 'bands', we have neglected to develop models that will aid the understanding of the wide range of variability that exists between them. This volume attempts to fill this gap by exploring social organization in tribal - or 'autonomous village' - societies from several different ethnographic, ethnohistoric, and archaeological contexts - from the Pre-Pottery Neolithic Period in the Near East to the contemporary Jivaro of Amazonia.
Optimal Use of Carbon Sequestration in a Global Climate Change Strategy by Franck Lecocq,Kenneth M. Chomitz Pdf
S. Whether it should be part of a global climate mitigation strategy, however, remains controversial. One of the key issues is that, contrary to emission abatement, carbon sequestration might not be permanent. But some argue that even temporary sequestration is beneficial as it delays climate change impacts and "buys" time for technical change in the energy sector. To rigorously assess these arguments, the authors build an international optimization model in which both sequestration and abatement can be used to mitigate climate change. They confirm that permanent sequestration, if feasible, can be overall part of a climate mitigation strategy. When permanence can be guaranteed, sequestration is equivalent to fossil-fuel emissions abatement. The optimal use of temporary sequestration, on the other hand, depends mostly on marginal damages of climate change. Temporary sequestration projects starting now, in particular, are not attractive if marginal damages of climate change at current concentration levels are assumed to be low.
The Climate Resilient Organization by Martina K. Linnenluecke,Andrew Griffiths Pdf
Climate change has had a significant impact globally, predominantly for those vulnerable to its influence. The first book of its kind, The Climate Resilient Organization assesses the issues that have mounted for decision-makers in the field, while prov
