Failed State 2030

Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 42,7 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : Failed states
ISBN : 1585662038

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Failed State 2030 by Anonim Pdf

" This monograph describes how a failed state in 2030 may impact the United States and the global economy. It also identifies critical capabilities and technologies the US Air Force should have to respond to a failed state, especially one of vital interest to the United States and one on the cusp of a civil war. Nation-states can fail for a myriad of reasons: cultural or religious conflict, a broken social contract between the government and the governed, a catastrophic natural disaster, financial collapse, war and so forth. Nigeria with its vast oil wealth, large population, and strategic position in Africa and the global economy can, if it fails disproportionately affect the United States and the global economy. Nigeria, like many nations in Africa, gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1960. It is the most populous country in Africa and will have nearly 250 million people by 2030. In its relatively short modern history, Nigeria has survived five military coups as well as separatist and religious wars, is mired in an active armed insurgency, is suffering from disastrous ecological conditions in its Niger Delta region, and is fighting one of the modern world's worst legacies of political and economic corruption. A nation with more than 350 ethnic groups, 250 languages, and three distinct religious affiliations--Christian, Islamic, and animist Nigeria's 135 million people today are anything but homogenous. Of Nigeria's 36 states, 12 are Islamic and under the strong and growing influence of the Sokoto caliphate. While religious and ethnic violence are commonplace, the federal government has managed to strike a tenuous balance among the disparate religious and ethnic factions. With such demographics, Nigeria's failure would be akin to a piece of fine china dropped on a tile floor--it would simply shatter into potentially hundreds of pieces."--DTIC abstract.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 158 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2021-03
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646794974

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Global Trends 2040 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author : Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed
Publisher : Springer
Page : 110 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2016-11-26
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783319478166

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Failing States, Collapsing Systems by Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed Pdf

This work executes a unique transdisciplinary methodology building on the author’s previous book, A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save it (Pluto, 2010), which was the first peer-reviewed study to establish a social science framework for the integrated analysis of crises across climate, energy, food, economic, terror and the police state. Since the 2008 financial crash, the world has witnessed an unprecedented outbreak of social unrest in every major continent. Beginning with the birth of the Occupy movement and the Arab Spring, the eruption of civil disorder continues to wreak havoc unpredictably from Greece to Ukraine, from China to Thailand, from Brazil to Turkey, and beyond. Yet while policymakers and media observers have raced to keep up with events, they have largely missed the biophysical triggers of this new age of unrest – the end of the age of cheap fossil fuels, and its multiplying consequences for the Earth’s climate, industrial food production, and economic growth. This book for the first time develops an empirically-ground theoretical model of the complex interaction between biophysical processes and geopolitical crises, demonstrated through the analysis of a wide range of detailed case studies of historic, concurrent and probable state failures in the Middle East, Northwest Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Europe and North America. Geopolitical crises across these regions, Ahmed argues, are being driven by the proliferation of climate, food and economic crises which have at their root the common denominator of a fundamental and permanent disruption in the energy basis of industrial civilization. This inevitable energy transition, which will be completed well before the close of this century, entails a paradigm shift in the organization of civilization. Yet for this shift to result in a viable new way of life will require a fundamental epistemological shift recognizing humanity’s embeddedness in the natural world. For this to be achieved, the stranglehold of conventional models achieved through the hegemony of establishment media reporting – dominated by fossil fuel interests – must be broken. While geopolitics cannot be simplistically reduced to the biophysical, this book shows that international relations today can only be understood by recognizing the extent to which the political is embedded in the biophysical. Although the book offers a rigorous scientific analysis, it is written in a clean, journalistic style to ensure readability and accessibility to a general audience. It will contain a large number of graphical illustrations concerning oil production data, population issues, the food price index, economic growth and debt, and other related issues to demonstrate the interconnections and correlations across key sectors.

Author : Colin Mason
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2013-06-17
Category : Law
ISBN : 9781136555114

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The 2030 Spike by Colin Mason Pdf

The clock is relentlessly ticking! Our world teeters on a knife-edge between a peaceful and prosperous future for all, and a dark winter of death and destruction that threatens to smother the light of civilization. Within 30 years, in the 2030 decade, six powerful 'drivers' will converge with unprecedented force in a statistical spike that could tear humanity apart and plunge the world into a new Dark Age. Depleted fuel supplies, massive population growth, poverty, global climate change, famine, growing water shortages and international lawlessness are on a crash course with potentially catastrophic consequences. In the face of both doomsaying and denial over the state of our world, Colin Mason cuts through the rhetoric and reams of conflicting data to muster the evidence to illustrate a broad picture of the world as it is, and our possible futures. Ultimately his message is clear; we must act decisively, collectively and immediately to alter the trajectory of humanity away from catastrophe. Offering over 100 priorities for immediate action, The 2030 Spike serves as a guidebook for humanity through the treacherous minefields and wastelands ahead to a bright, peaceful and prosperous future in which all humans have the opportunity to thrive and build a better civilization. This book is powerful and essential reading for all people concerned with the future of humanity and planet earth.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 50,7 Mb
Release : 2018-02-07
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 1646797728

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Global Trends 2030 by National Intelligence Council Pdf

This important report, Global Trends 2030-Alternative Worlds, released in 2012 by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, describes megatrends and potential game changers for the next decades. Among the megatrends, it analyzes: - increased individual empowerment - the diffusion of power among states and the ascent of a networked multi-polar world - a world's population growing to 8.3 billion people, of which sixty percent will live in urbanized areas, and surging cross-border migration - expanding demand for food, water, and energy It furthermore describes potential game changers, including: - a global economy that could thrive or collapse - increased global insecurity due to regional instability in the Middle East and South Asia - new technologies that could solve the problems caused by the megatrends - the possibility, but by no means the certainty, that the U.S. with new partners will reinvent the international system Students of trends, forward-looking entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades will find this essential reading.

Author : National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Publisher : U.S. Government Printing Office
Page : 166 pages
File Size : 45,6 Mb
Release : 2012
Category : Balance of power
ISBN : 0160915430

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Global Trends 2030 by National Intelligence Council (U.S.) Pdf

This report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC's previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future, which would be an impossible feat, but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications. In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries, from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups, to solicit reviews of the report.

Author : Stéfanie von Hlatky,H. Christian Breede
Publisher : McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
Page : 244 pages
File Size : 48,9 Mb
Release : 2016-06-01
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780773599338

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Going to War? by Stéfanie von Hlatky,H. Christian Breede Pdf

Going to War? investigates the reasons why countries enter conflicts by considering the depth and complexity of issues surrounding military deployments. Showing how such conditions affect future decisions about the use of force, contributors to this volume study recent experiences with military interventions – such as regional flash points, the global financial crisis, and public weariness – to outline the crucial factors that influence wartime decision-making. Through detailed discussion of threats, capabilities, trends, and the implications of Canada’s and NATO’s military experiences abroad, Going to War? determines that the reasons for warfare have as much to do with domestic concerns as they do with international threats. With essays by defence scientists, established and emerging scholars, and senior military officers from Germany, the United States, and Canada, this volume includes debates on whether the number of military fatalities is being reduced, war’s changing character, and the ways in which the improvised explosive device has and will continue to challenge modern, advanced militaries deployed abroad, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq. A sophisticated exercise in foreign and defence policy analysis, Going to War? provides clear and vivid ideas on how to optimize future Western military interventions.

Author : Chris Jones,Pregala Pillay,Purshottama Sivanarain Reddy,Sakhile Isaac Zondi
Publisher : Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Page : 370 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2022-02-17
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781527578951

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Lessons from Political Leadership in Africa by Chris Jones,Pregala Pillay,Purshottama Sivanarain Reddy,Sakhile Isaac Zondi Pdf

The central message of this book is that leadership serves as a blueprint to transform Africa into a global powerhouse. There is an urgent need to refocus our efforts on the African Continent and her people, while at the same time forging ahead with democratic, accountable, people-centred, ethical and transparent governance and leadership. Corruption has undoubtedly become a hostile enemy in robbing the poor, violating the trust of the people and eroding the moral fibre of society. Abuse of power, position or office compounded by greed, self-enrichment and acts of dishonesty has dire consequences for mankind, and, as such, each contribution in this book promotes Africa’s vision to sustain humanity and its people, away from social ills such as extreme poverty, distinct inequalities and large-scale unemployment. What is needed is a new generation of bold, passionate, confident, inspiring leaders to make a difference and leave an edible mark in the global arena. This is the fundamental spirit of leadership for the Africa that this book wants and wishes to nurture. We cannot go back and change the past, but we can learn lessons, both good and bad, and change the future towards a bigger, better, and brighter tomorrow!

Author : Susan L. Woodward
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 327 pages
File Size : 54,5 Mb
Release : 2017-04-03
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781107176423

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The Ideology of Failed States by Susan L. Woodward Pdf

Contests to reorganize the international system after the Cold War agree on the security threat of failed states: this book asks why.

Author : Ojochenemi J. David,Lucky E. Asuelime,Hakeem Onapajo
Publisher : Springer
Page : 121 pages
File Size : 44,7 Mb
Release : 2015-06-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9783319212302

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Boko Haram by Ojochenemi J. David,Lucky E. Asuelime,Hakeem Onapajo Pdf

This book investigates the socio-economic determinants of the emergence and persistence of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria. Since 2009, Boko Haram continues to capture mainstream news headlines, as well as the imagination of aspiring young Salafi-jihadists around the world who support the notion of a radical Islamist socio-political system. By providing an essential overview of the literature on Boko Haram and bridging research and current events, the authors cover a broad spectrum of topics and suggest relevant policies for addressing the problem of Boko Haram terrorism. While Boko Haram’s motivations are ostensibly religious, the primary focus is on socio-economic inequality as one of the main factors that predispose the disillusioned, poverty-driven and jobless populace in the northern regions of Nigeria to take up arms against the state. The insights presented in this book will help researchers and policy-makers alike to understand the emergence of locally focused terrorist groups and insurgencies.

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 280 pages
File Size : 54,7 Mb
Release : 2018-07-17
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264302075

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States of Fragility 2018 by OECD Pdf

Three years into the 2030 Agenda it is already apparent that those living in fragile contexts are the furthest behind. Not all forms of fragility make it to the public’s eye: fragility is an intricate beast, sometimes exposed, often lurking underneath, but always holding progress back. Conflict ...

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 100 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2020-09-17
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264985162

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States of Fragility 2020 by OECD Pdf

States of Fragility 2020 sets a policy agenda for fragility at a critical turning point: the final countdown on Agenda 2030 is at hand, and the pandemic has reversed hard-fought gains. This report examines fragility as a story in two parts: the global state of fragility that existed before COVID-19, and the dramatic impact the pandemic is having on that landscape.

Author : John P. Geis (II.)
Publisher : Government Printing Office
Page : 148 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2011
Category : China
ISBN : 1585662097

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Discord Or "harmonious Society"? by John P. Geis (II.) Pdf

NOTE: NO FURTHER DISCOUNT FOR THIS PRINTED PRODUCT- OVERSTOCK SALE -Significantly reduced list price By John P. Geis, et al. Provides essays about China's future. Predicts that within the time frame covered in this monograph, China will supplant the United States as the greatest economic power on Earth. While its military capabilities are expected to lag slightly behind, by 2030 China will be, for all practical purposes, a peer of the United States in terms of its ability to influence interactions within the nation-state system. Military, acaemia, lawmakers, and policy analysts may be interested in this volume. High school to graduate students pursuing coursework in global studies,especially China Studies classes may also find this reference useful. Related products: China resources collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/international-foreign-affairs/asia/china

Author : Cosgrove, Catherine E.,Cosgrove, William J.,UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme
Publisher : UNESCO Publishing
Page : 100 pages
File Size : 44,9 Mb
Release : 2012-12-31
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9789230010355

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The United Nations World Water Development Report by Cosgrove, Catherine E.,Cosgrove, William J.,UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme Pdf

Author : Babayo Sule
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 352 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2024-07-01
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9783031549199

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Presidential Elections in Nigeria's Fourth Republic by Babayo Sule Pdf