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Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle by Mr.Alexander Klemm Pdf
This paper provides an analysis of the cyclical stance of fiscal policy in Latin America. Its contributions include developing a new measure of the cyclicality of fiscal policy, careful analysis of the statistical significance of results, and accounting for the effect of commodity prices on fiscal balances. The new cyclicality measure takes into account both discretionary policy action and automatic stabilizers, but excludes additional revenues that are due to applying an unchanged average tax rate to nominal GDP in excess of potential. The paper finds that fiscal policy has been procyclical on average in Latin America, but counter or acyclical in advanced economies. Country-specific results are mostly insignificant, except in a few cases where policy is clearly procyclical. For some countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, and Mexico), there is evidence of a recent move toward more countercyclical policies.
Fiscal Policy in Latin America by Oya Celasun,Francesco Grigoli,Ms.Keiko Honjo,Mr.Javier Kapsoli,Mr.Alexander Klemm,Mr.Bogdan Lissovolik,Jan Luksic,Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia,Ms.Joana Pereira,Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro,Baoping Shang,Ms.Yulia Ustyugova Pdf
Latin America’s bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the region have not yet rebuilt their fiscal space, despite buoyant commodity revenues and relatively strong growth in the aftermath of the crisis. Using the experience of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, this paper examines the lessons and legacies of the crisis by addressing the following questions, among others: How much did the 2009 fiscal stimulus help growth? What shortcomings were revealed in the fiscal policy frameworks? What institutional reforms are now needed to provide enduring anchors for fiscal policy? How much rebuilding of buffers is needed going forward?
A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017 by Timothy J. Kehoe,Juan Pablo Nicolini Pdf
A major, new, and comprehensive look at six decades of macroeconomic policies across the region What went wrong with the economic development of Latin America over the past half-century? Along with periods of poor economic performance, the region’s countries have been plagued by a wide variety of economic crises. This major new work brings together dozens of leading economists to explore the economic performance of the ten largest countries in South America and of Mexico. Together they advance the fundamental hypothesis that, despite different manifestations, these crises all have been the result of poorly designed or poorly implemented fiscal and monetary policies. Each country is treated in its own section of the book, with a lead chapter presenting a comprehensive database of the country’s fiscal, monetary, and economic data from 1960 to 2017. The chapters are drawn from one-day academic conferences—hosted in all but one case, in the focus country—with participants including noted economists and former leading policy makers. Cowritten with Nobel Prize winner Thomas J. Sargent, the editors’ introduction provides a conceptual framework for analyzing fiscal and monetary policy in countries around the world, particularly those less developed. A final chapter draws conclusions and suggests directions for further research. A vital resource for advanced undergraduate and graduate students of economics and for economic researchers and policy makers, A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960–2017 goes further than any book in stressing both the singularities and the similarities of the economic histories of Latin America’s largest countries. Contributors: Mark Aguiar, Princeton U; Fernando Alvarez, U of Chicago; Manuel Amador, U of Minnesota; Joao Ayres, Inter-American Development Bank; Saki Bigio, UCLA; Luigi Bocola, Stanford U; Francisco J. Buera, Washington U, St. Louis; Guillermo Calvo, Columbia U; Rodrigo Caputo, U of Santiago; Roberto Chang, Rutgers U; Carlos Javier Charotti, Central Bank of Paraguay; Simón Cueva, TNK Economics; Julián P. Díaz, Loyola U Chicago; Sebastian Edwards, UCLA; Carlos Esquivel, Rutgers U; Eduardo Fernández Arias, Peking U; Carlos Fernández Valdovinos (former Central Bank of Paraguay); Arturo José Galindo, Banco de la República, Colombia; Márcio Garcia, PUC-Rio; Felipe González Soley, U of Southampton; Diogo Guillen, PUC-Rio; Lars Peter Hansen, U of Chicago; Patrick Kehoe, Stanford U; Carlos Gustavo Machicado Salas, Bolivian Catholic U; Joaquín Marandino, U Torcuato Di Tella; Alberto Martin, U Pompeu Fabra; Cesar Martinelli, George Mason U; Felipe Meza, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México; Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, U Torcuato Di Tella; Gabriel Oddone, U de la República; Daniel Osorio, Banco de la República; José Peres Cajías, U of Barcelona; David Perez-Reyna, U de los Andes; Fabrizio Perri, Minneapolis Fed; Andrew Powell, Inter-American Development Bank; Diego Restuccia, U of Toronto; Diego Saravia, U de los Andes; Thomas J. Sargent, New York U; José A. Scheinkman, Columbia U; Teresa Ter-Minassian (formerly IMF); Marco Vega, Pontificia U Católica del Perú; Carlos Végh, Johns Hopkins U; François R. Velde, Chicago Fed; Alejandro Werner, IMF.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 38 pages File Size : 55,7 Mb Release : 1989-11-02 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781451950649
Fiscal Policy and Economic Reconstruction in Latin America by International Monetary Fund Pdf
This paper surveys the fiscal landscape of Latin America. It analyzes external and domestic factors that over the years led to the deterioration of the fiscal accounts. It also discusses difficulties that are encountered in pursuing a sound fiscal policy under inflationary conditions. Issues such as the connection between external debt and fiscal policy and the role of public investment are also discussed. General guidelines are provided for a fiscal policy for the economic reconstruction of Latin America.
Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth by Guillermo E. Perry,Luis Serv n,Rodrigo Suesc n Pdf
Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.
Challenges to Fiscal Adjustment in Latin America The Cases of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico by OECD Pdf
This volume discusses progress made to date in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico in putting their finances in order, and points out the challenges ahead.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 46 pages File Size : 40,7 Mb Release : 1989-11-02 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781451951066
Fiscal Policy for Stable and Equitable Growth in Latin America by International Monetary Fund Pdf
The resumption of economic growth in Latin America is predicated on the successful restoration of fiscal discipline and stabilization. In restoring fiscal discipline, the mix of policy instruments should aim at maximizing efficiency in the use of domestic and foreign resources. Poverty alleviation in Latin America is not likely to be achieved, in the near future, by economic growth. Policy should promote a more equitable distribution of income. While fiscal policy can play an important role in this process, it is important to realize that the current high domestic inflation in many Latin American countries implies that expanding social programs has high social costs. Fiscal policy should aim at increasing the income share for the poor by making the tax system more efficient and by reforming the existing social programs to make them more effectively targeted toward the poor.
Fiscal Rules and Economic Size in Latin America and the Caribbean by Fernando Blanco,Pablo Saavedra,Friederike Koehler-Geib,Emilia Skrok Pdf
Following the collapse of commodity prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in 2014-15, many countries in the region were unable to cushion the impact of the shock in order to experience a more gradual adjustment, to a large extent because they had not built adequate fiscal buffers during the commodities’ windfall from 2010-14. Many LAC countries entered 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis in an even more difficult position, with rising debt and limited fiscal space to smooth the negative impacts of the pandemic and adequately support their economies. Fiscal policy in most LAC countries has been procyclical. Public expenditure and debt levels have expanded in good times and contracted in severe downswings due to insufficient fiscal buffers, making crises deeper. Fiscal rules represent a promising policy option for these and other economies. If well-designed and implemented, they can help build buffers during periods of strong economic performance that will be available during rainy days to smooth economic shocks. This book—which was prepared before the COVID-19 crisis—reviews the performance and implementation of different fiscal rules in the region and world. It provides analytical and practical criteria for policy makers for the design, establishment, and feasible implementation of fiscal rules based on each country's business cycle features, external characteristics, type of shocks faced, initial fiscal conditions, technical and institutional capacities, and political context. While establishing new fiscal rules would not help to attenuate the immediate effects of this pandemic crisis, higher debt levels in the aftermath of COVID-19 will demand rebuilding better and stronger institutional frameworks of fiscal policy in LAC and emerging economies globally. Having stronger fiscal mechanisms that include fiscal rules can help countries prepare for the next crisis and should be on the front burner for policy makers in coming years. The findings and lessons discussed apply to economies of different sizes, with some differences under certain scenarios in terms of the technical design and criteria needed for implementation. In this book, policy makers will find that fiscal rules, if tailored to country characteristics, can work and be an essential fiscal tool for larger and particularly smaller economies.
The Role of Fiscal Policy in Sustainable Stabilization by Mr.Gerd Schwartz,Mrs.Teresa Ter-Minassian Pdf
This paper reviews the role of fiscal policy in a number of stabilization programs in Latin America since the early 1980s. The paper highlights the importance of sustainable fiscal adjustment in stabilization efforts, and discusses the main issues that arise in this context. By reviewing the Latin American experience, it is argued that responsibility for failed stabilization attempts can be traced to four main factors: inconsistent policy mixes; excessive reliance on temporary factors of improvement in the fiscal accounts; failure to implement fundamental fiscal reforms; and lack of complementary structural reforms.
Latin America's bold fiscal policy reaction to the global financial crisis was hailed as a sign that the region had finally overcome its procyclical fiscal past. However, most countries of the region have not yet rebuilt their fiscal space, despite buoyant commodity revenues and relatively strong growth in the aftermath of the crisis. Using the experience of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay, this paper examines the lessons and legacies of the crisis by addressing the following questions, among others: How much did the 2009 fiscal stimulus help growth? What shortcomings were revealed in the fiscal policy frameworks? What institutional reforms are now needed to provide enduring anchors for fiscal policy? How much rebuilding of buffers is needed going forward?
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
Author : Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Publisher : United Nations Page : 129 pages File Size : 48,7 Mb Release : 2018-04-11 Category : Political Science ISBN : 9789210586214
Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2018 by Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Pdf
This edition of Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean coincides with an important milestone: the thirtieth anniversary of the Regional Seminar on Fiscal Policy organized by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Over the past 30 years, this seminar has become a key fixture on the agenda of fiscal policy events in the region.Throughout these three decades, the successive editions of the seminar have served as a forum for national authorities, tax experts and officials from international organizations to discuss the performance, challenges and opportunities of fiscal policy,and it has enhanced policy design and management in the individual countries.
Author : International Monetary Fund Publisher : International Monetary Fund Page : 40 pages File Size : 44,7 Mb Release : 2021-03-18 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781513574332
Fiscal Policy Challenges for Latin America During the Next Stages of the Pandemic: The Need for a Fiscal Pact by International Monetary Fund Pdf
The fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 shock in most LAC countries was much larger than during the GFC, suggesting fiscal space was not as tight as expected. We argue that it is feasible and desirable, though not without risks, to embark in a more gradual consolidation path than currently envisaged by several countries in the region. Avoiding an early withdrawal of support in 2021 and 2022 is important given that countries are still facing high rates of contagion and deaths, vaccination will take place very slowly, the economic recovery is partial, uncertain and not strong enough to help those most affected by the twin public health and economic crisis. At the center of this discussion is our conviction that fiscal space is not set in stone and it is endogenous to the medium-term targets and commitments undertaken by governments and congresses throughout the region. Also, revisions to fiscal responsibility frameworks should help anchor fiscal sustainability, as well as improve their effectiveness and flexibility. In this context, low-for-long interest rates and easy market access is generating a situation that, in spite of higher debt levels, interest cost on public debt will remain contained in the foreseeable future. Especially if, as argued in this paper, a more gradual fiscal consolidation path is accompanied with stronger commitments and institutional frameworks that ensure debt is put on a credible downward trajectory once the pandemic is under control. Catalyzing these changes, as well as initiating the debate to design other fiscal reforms to strengthen social protection and increase the progressivity of public finances, would require a broad social consensus and political cohesion around several crucial dimensions of public finances: a fiscal pact. On the other hand, if this agenda is neglected the continuation of low growth, social discontent, and political polarization could drive Latin America towards a very dangerous path of institutional and economic decay.
The Size and Effectiveness of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in Latin America by Rodrigo Suescun Pdf
This paper measures the size of automatic fiscal revenue stabilizers and evaluates their role in Latin America. It introduces a relatively rich tax structure into a dynamic, stochastic, multi-sector small open economy inhabited by rule-of-thumb consumers (who consume their wages and do not save or borrow) and Ricardian households to study the stabilizing properties of different parameters of the tax code. The economy faces multiple sources of business cycle fluctuations: (1) world capital market shocks; (2) world business cycle shocks; (3) terms of trade shocks; (4) government spending shocks; and (5) nontradable and (6) tradable sector technology innovations. Calibrating the model economy to a typical Latin American economy allows the evaluation of its ability to mimic the region's observed business cycle frequency properties and the assessment of the quantitative relationship between tax code parameters, business cycle forcing variables, and business cycle behavior. The model captures many of the salient features of Latin America's business cycle facts and finds that the degree of smoothing provided by the automatic revenue stabilizers-described by various properties of the tax system-is negligible. Simulation results seem to suggest an invariance property for middle-income countries: the amplitude of the business cycle is independent of the tax structure. And government size-measured by the GDP ratio of government spending-plays the role of an automatic stabilizer, but its smoothing effect is very weak.
Can Fiscal Rules Help Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility in the Latin America and Caribbean Region? by Guillermo Perry Pdf
The debate on fiscal policy in Europe centers on how to let automatic stabilizers work while achieving fiscal consolidation. There is significant agreement on the importance of using fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical instrument, as monetary policy can no longer play this role. In contrast, most of the discussion on fiscal policy in Latin America and the Carribean region (LAC) deals just on solvency issues, largely ignoring the effects of the economic cycle. This is surprising as LAC economies are much more volatile than their European counterparts and have been generally applying pro-cyclical fiscal policies that exacerbate volatility. Some analysts and policymakers appear to think that counter-cyclical fiscal policies are a luxury that only industrial countries can indulge in or, at least, that LAC countries (with the exception of Chile) that have successfully put in place a counter-cyclical fiscal policy need to deal first with pressing adjustment and solvency issues before they attempt to reduce the highly pro-cyclical character of their fiscal policies. The author argues that this is a major mistake because the costs of pro-cyclical fiscal policies in LAC are huge in growth and welfare terms, especially for the poor, and because pro-cyclical policies and rules tend to develop a deficit bias, thus ending up being nonsustainable and noncredible. Perry illustrates both propositions. He then examines the causes of the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policies in LAC and discusses how well-designed fiscal rules may help to deal with the political economy and credibility factors behind pro-cyclicality. He also examines conflicts between flexibility and credibility in rules, showing how a good design can both facilitate the operation of automatic stabilizers while at the same time supporting solvency goals and enhancing credibility. Perry evaluates the experience with different fiscal rules and institutions in LAC to see the extent they have helped or can help to achieve the twin goals of avoiding deficit and pro-cyclical biases.
A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean by Mr.Antonio David,Mr.Daniel Leigh Pdf
This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and long-term fiscal health and not by a response to prospective economic conditions. To identify the motivation and budgetary impact of the fiscal policy changes, we examine contemporaneous policy documents, including Budgets, central bank reports, and IMF and OECD reports. The resulting series can be used to estimate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation for these economies