Forecasting And Risk Management Techniques For Electricity Markets
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Forecasting and Risk Management Techniques for Electricity Markets by Yuji Yamada Pdf
This book focuses on the recent development of forecasting and risk management techniques for electricity markets. In addition, we discuss research on new trading platforms and environments using blockchain-based peer-to-peer (P2P) markets and computer agents. The book consists of two parts. The first part is entitled "Forecasting and Risk Management Techniques" and contains five chapters related to weather and electricity derivatives, and load and price forecasting for supporting electricity trading. The second part is entitled "Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Electricity Trading System and Strategy" and contains the following five chapters related to the feasibility and enhancement of P2P energy trading from various aspects.
Market Operations in Electric Power Systems by Mohammad Shahidehpour,Hatim Yamin,Zuyi Li Pdf
An essential overview of post-deregulation market operations inelectrical power systems Until recently the U.S. electricity industry was dominated byvertically integrated utilities. It is now evolving into adistributive and competitive market driven by market forces andincreased competition. With electricity amounting to a $200 billionper year market in the United States, the implications of thisrestructuring will naturally affect the rest of the world. Why is restructuring necessary? What are the components ofrestructuring? How is the new structure different from the oldmonopoly? How are the participants strategizing their options tomaximize their revenues? What are the market risks and how are theyevaluated? How are interchange transactions analyzed and approved?Starting with a background sketch of the industry, this hands-onreference provides insights into the new trends in power systemsoperation and control, and highlights advanced issues in thefield. Written for both technical and nontechnical professionals involvedin power engineering, finance, and marketing, this must-haveresource discusses: * Market structure and operation of electric power systems * Load and price forecasting and arbitrage * Price-based unit commitment and security constrained unitcommitment * Market power analysis and game theory applications * Ancillary services auction market design * Transmission pricing and congestion Using real-world case studies, this timely survey offers engineers,consultants, researchers, financial managers, university professorsand students, and other professionals in the industry acomprehensive review of electricity restructuring and how itsradical effects will shape the market.
Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand by Kevin Berk Pdf
The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous factor and seasonalities on a daily, weekly and yearly basis. It is demonstrated how the model can be used e.g. for estimating the risk of retail contracts. The uncertainty of electricity demand is an important risk factor for customers as well as for utilities and retailers. As a consequence, forecasting electricity load and its risk is now an integral component of the risk management for all market participants. Contents Electricity Market Energy Economy in Enterprises Time Series Analysis A one Factor Model for medium-term Load Forecasting Retail Contract Evaluation and Pricing MATLAB Implementation Target Groups Researchers and students in energy economics or mathematics and statistics with a focus on applications in energy markets Professionals in electricity utilities, energy vendors, risk management The Author Kevin Berk is a Ph.D. student at the Mathematics Department of the University Siegen, Germany. His major research focus is risk management and time series models with applications in energy markets.
Renewable Energy: Forecasting and Risk Management by Philippe Drobinski,Mathilde Mougeot,Dominique Picard,Riwal Plougonven,Peter Tankov Pdf
Gathering selected, revised and extended contributions from the conference ‘Forecasting and Risk Management for Renewable Energy FOREWER’, which took place in Paris in June 2017, this book focuses on the applications of statistics to the risk management and forecasting problems arising in the renewable energy industry. The different contributions explore all aspects of the energy production chain: forecasting and probabilistic modelling of renewable resources, including probabilistic forecasting approaches; modelling and forecasting of wind and solar power production; prediction of electricity demand; optimal operation of microgrids involving renewable production; and finally the effect of renewable production on electricity market prices. Written by experts in statistics, probability, risk management, economics and electrical engineering, this multidisciplinary volume will serve as a reference on renewable energy risk management and at the same time as a source of inspiration for statisticians and probabilists aiming to work on energy-related problems.
Managing Energy Risk by Markus Burger,Bernhard Graeber,Gero Schindlmayr Pdf
Mathematical techniques for trading and risk management. Managing Energy Risk closes the gap between modern techniques from financial mathematics and the practical implementation for trading and risk management. It takes a multi-commodity approach that covers the mutual influences of the markets for fuels, emission certificates, and power. It includes many practical examples and covers methods from financial mathematics as well as economics and energy-related models.
Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices by Rafal Weron Pdf
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.
Quantitative Methods for Electricity Trading and Risk Management by S. Fiorenzani Pdf
This book presents practical Risk Management and Trading applications for the Electricity Markets. Various methodologies developed over the last few years are considered and current literature is reviewed. The book emphasizes the relationship between trading, hedging and generation asset management.
Energy and Power Risk Management by Alexander Eydeland,Krzysztof Wolyniec Pdf
Praise for Energy and Power Risk Management "Energy and Power Risk Management identifies and addresses the key issues in the development of the turbulent energy industry and the challenges it poses to market players. An insightful and far-reaching book written by two renowned professionals." -Helyette Geman, Professor of Finance University Paris Dauphine and ESSEC "The most up-to-date and comprehensive book on managing energy price risk in the natural gas and power markets. An absolute imperative for energy traders and energy risk management professionals." -Vincent Kaminski, Managing Director Citadel Investment Group LLC "Eydeland and Wolyniec's work does an excellent job of outlining the methods needed to measure and manage risk in the volatile energy market." -Gerald G. Fleming, Vice President, Head of East Power Trading, TXU Energy Trading "This book combines academic rigor with real-world practicality. It is a must-read for anyone in energy risk management or asset valuation." -Ron Erd, Senior Vice President American Electric Power
Renewable Energy Forecasting by Georges Kariniotakis Pdf
Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Models to Applications provides an overview of the state-of-the-art of renewable energy forecasting technology and its applications. After an introduction to the principles of meteorology and renewable energy generation, groups of chapters address forecasting models, very short-term forecasting, forecasting of extremes, and longer term forecasting. The final part of the book focuses on important applications of forecasting for power system management and in energy markets. Due to shrinking fossil fuel reserves and concerns about climate change, renewable energy holds an increasing share of the energy mix. Solar, wind, wave, and hydro energy are dependent on highly variable weather conditions, so their increased penetration will lead to strong fluctuations in the power injected into the electricity grid, which needs to be managed. Reliable, high quality forecasts of renewable power generation are therefore essential for the smooth integration of large amounts of solar, wind, wave, and hydropower into the grid as well as for the profitability and effectiveness of such renewable energy projects. Offers comprehensive coverage of wind, solar, wave, and hydropower forecasting in one convenient volume Addresses a topic that is growing in importance, given the increasing penetration of renewable energy in many countries Reviews state-of-the-science techniques for renewable energy forecasting Contains chapters on operational applications
The Professional Risk Managers Guide to the Energy Market by Professional Risk Managers International Association (PRMIA) Pdf
An essential resource for all financial professionals affected by energy prices, The Professional Risk Managers’ Guide to the Energy Market presents a complete account of the evolution, tools, scope, and breadth of the energy and environmental financial markets. Sponsored by the PRMIA Institute and edited by renowned analyst Peter Fusaro, the book includes contributions from 20 world experts who discuss every aspect of energy trading and the risks associated with specific investment vehicles and energy sectors. Organized in three parts, The Professional Risk Managers’ Guide to the Energy Market begins with a comprehensive overview of the energy market, goes on to provide an in-depth review of energy risk management tools, and finally delivers detailed coverage of risk management software, energy hedging in Asian markets, trading electricity options, and weather risk management strategies. Designed to improve investment insights and skills, The Professional Risk Managers’ Guide to the Energy Market features timely chapters on: Energy Futures Today The Over-the-Counter Energy Derivatives Market Energy Derivatives Structures The Nordic Electricity Markets Market Risk Measurement and Management for Energy Firms Best Practices in Credit Risk Management for Energy and Commodity Derivatives Natural Gas Trading Risk Management in Energy-Focused Commodity Futures Investing The ISDA Master Agreement Ten Years On, ISDA 2002 Authoritative and comprehensive, The Professional Risk Managers’ Guide to the Energy Market equips risk managers, institutional investors, and financial analysts with all the information, tools, and strategies required to understand and succeed in the fast-changing global energy marketplace.
Restructured Electrical Power Systems by Mohammad Shahidehpour,M. Alomoush Pdf
An examination of key issues in electric utilities restructuring. It covers: electric utility markets in and out of the USA; the Open Access Same-time Information System; tagging transactions; trading energy; hedging tools for managing risks in various markets; pricing volatility, risk and forecasting; regional transmission organization; and more. The text contains acronyms, a contract specifications sample, examples, and nearly 500 bibliographic citations, tables, and drawings.
Power Grid Operation in a Market Environment by Hong Chen Pdf
Covers the latest practices, challenges and theoretical advancements in the domain of balancing economic efficiency and operation risk mitigation This book examines both system operation and market operation perspectives, focusing on the interaction between the two. It incorporates up-to-date field experiences, presents challenges, and summarizes the latest theoretic advancements to address those challenges. The book is divided into four parts. The first part deals with the fundamentals of integrated system and market operations, including market power mitigation, market efficiency evaluation, and the implications of operation practices in energy markets. The second part discusses developing technologies to strengthen the use of the grid in energy markets. System volatility and economic impact introduced by the intermittency of wind and solar generation are also addressed. The third part focuses on stochastic applications, exploring new approaches of handling uncertainty in Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) as well as the reserves needed for power system operation. The fourth part provides ongoing efforts of utilizing transmission facilities to improve market efficiency, via transmission topology control, transmission switching, transmission outage scheduling, and advanced transmission technologies. Besides the state-of-the-art review and discussion on the domain of balancing economic efficiency and operation risk mitigation, this book: Describes a new approach for mass market demand response management, and introduces new criteria to improve system performance with large scale variable generation additions Reviews mathematic models and solution methods of SCUC to help address challenges posed by increased operational uncertainties with high-penetration of renewable resources Presents a planning framework to account for the value of operational flexibility in transmission planning and to provide market mechanism for risk sharing Power Grid Operations in a Market Environment: Economic Efficiency and Risk Mitigation is a timely reference for power engineers and researchers, electricity market traders and analysts, and market designers.
Author : Antonio J. Conejo,Miguel Carrión,Juan M. Morales Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media Page : 549 pages File Size : 45,7 Mb Release : 2010-09-08 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 9781441974211
Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets by Antonio J. Conejo,Miguel Carrión,Juan M. Morales Pdf
Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.
Author : Peter C. Fusaro Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional Page : 290 pages File Size : 47,6 Mb Release : 1998 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0786311843
Addressing the important issues of worldwide energy price risk management, this work assembles the leading industry figures to explain general theories and practices for hedging risk, and specific methods to effectively manage risk in markets such as coal, natural gas, electricity, and hydropower.
