Forecasting Government Budgets

Author : Aman Khan,Kenneth A. Kriz
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Page : 269 pages
File Size : 45,9 Mb
Release : 2022-12-15
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781793613110

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Forecasting Government Budgets by Aman Khan,Kenneth A. Kriz Pdf

Forecasting is integral to all governmental activities, especially budgetary activities. Without good and accurate forecasts, a government will not only find it difficult to carry out its everyday operations but will also find it difficult to cope with the increasingly complex environment in which it has to operate. This book presents, in a simple and easy to understand manner, some of the commonly used methods in budget forecasting, simple as well as advanced. The book is divided into three parts: It begins with an overview of forecasting background, forecasting process, and forecasting methods, followed by a detailed discussion of the actual methods in Parts I, II, and III. Part I discusses a combination of basic time series models such as percentage average, simple moving average, double moving average, exponential moving average, double as well as triple, simple trend line, time-series with cyclical variation, and time-series regression, with single and multiple independent variables. Part II discusses some of the more advanced, but frequently used time series models, such as ARIMA, regular as well as seasonal, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Vector Error Correction (VEC). Part III provides an overview of three of the more recent advances in time series models, namely ensemble forecasting, state-space forecasting, and neural network. The book concludes with a brief discussion of some practical issues in budget forecasting.

Author : Jinping Sun,Thomas D. Lynch
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 637 pages
File Size : 47,6 Mb
Release : 2017-09-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781351565110

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Government Budget Forecasting by Jinping Sun,Thomas D. Lynch Pdf

Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.

Author : Daniel Williams,Thad Calabrese
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 448 pages
File Size : 55,9 Mb
Release : 2019-10-14
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9783030181956

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The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting by Daniel Williams,Thad Calabrese Pdf

This Handbook is a comprehensive anthology of up-to-date chapters contributed by current researchers in budget forecasting. Editors Daniel Williams and Thad Calabrese had previously found substantial deficiencies in public budgeting forecast literature with current research failing to address such matters as practices related to forecasting expenditure factors, the consequences of forecast bias, or empirical examination of the effectiveness of many deterministic methods actually used by many governments. This volume comprehensively addresses the state of knowledge about budget forecasting for practitioners, academics, and students and serves as a comprehensive resource for instruction alongside serving as a reference book for those engaged in budget forecasting practice.

Author : Claudia Devita Scott,Municipal Finance Officers Association of the United States and Canada
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 168 pages
File Size : 53,6 Mb
Release : 1972
Category : Political Science
ISBN : UOM:39015007218699

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Forecasting Local Government Spending by Claudia Devita Scott,Municipal Finance Officers Association of the United States and Canada Pdf

Author : Michael J. Brogan
Publisher : Lexington Books
Page : 197 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2013-12-05
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9780739168400

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Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States by Michael J. Brogan Pdf

This book, by Michael J. Brogan, examines government budgeting through the lens of public budget forecast errors. In examining this aspect of the budgetary process, Brogan helps readers understand levels of political and financial risk that policymakers are willing to accept in estimating the likelihood of accurate budget projections. This title is noteworthy in its innovative, accessible approach to examining the budget process through an analysis of forecast errors. Unlike most public budgeting books, which focus primarily on the technical aspects of budgeting or on the politics of the budget process, this book bridges the technical and political aspects of budgeting, thereby providing a more comprehensive analysis of contemporary issues and research in public budgetary matters. In light of the current financial crisis in the United States, this book is crucial for providing readers with a comprehensive review of the limits of budget projections and how political forces shape the forecasting process. Throughout the text, readers are presented with relevant state-specific mini cases. The mini cases highlight some of the difficulties in projecting future revenue and spending patterns, as well as the political conflict that can ensue. The empirical findings, mini cases, and arguments presented throughout this book are intended to empower readers, giving them the expertise needed to better understand how uncertainty in public budget forecasts affects the budget process. Ultimately, this knowledge can help citizens connect the financial management of a state with its governing patterns.

Author : Great Britain: National Audit Office
Publisher : Stationery Office
Page : 67 pages
File Size : 43,9 Mb
Release : 2014-01-31
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 0102987483

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Forecasting in government to achieve value for money by Great Britain: National Audit Office Pdf

High-quality forecasting is an essential part of achieving value for money for the taxpayer. Since 2010, more than 70 of the NAO's reports have identified forecasting weaknesses. For example, the Department for Education initially underestimated the scale of demand for its academies programme and did not develop robust cost estimates. To remain within spending limits without restricting the pace or scale of the expansion, it used additional contingency funding of £105m and reassigned £244m from other budgets. 'Optimism bias' and poor quality data are among the root causes of departments' poor production and use of forecasts. Analysts have expressed concern that they are under pressure to provide supportive rather than realistic forecasts; and over half the analysts surveyed by the NAO identified a lack of good-quality data as preventing good forecasting. While the Treasury has introduced incentives to improve forecasting, these are at risk of being overwhelmed by the need to meet Parliament's requirements not to breach end of year spending totals. Most Finance Directors responding to the NAO survey considered that the spending control framework incentivised them to over-budget and underspend. In 2012-13, underspending increased to £11.5 billion, nearly three times the recent average. The Treasury encouraged underspends for Budget 2013; however, the NAO is concerned that the Treasury's flexing of the budget exchange rules (allowing departments to carry forward a forecast underspend from one year to the next) was not clearly related to the quality of individual departments' financial management

Author : Annette Kyobe,Stephan Danninger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 28 pages
File Size : 48,8 Mb
Release : 2005-02
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UCSD:31822030174502

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Revenue Forecasting--How is it Done? Results from a Survey of Low-Income Countries by Annette Kyobe,Stephan Danninger Pdf

This paper takes stock of revenue forecasting practices in low-income countries, and provides a comprehensive and condensed account of the revenue forecasting process. Based on a new dataset on 34 low-income countries, it catalogues forecasting practices and procedures from inception until budget submission, focusing primarily on institutional aspects and processes. The paper also synthesizes three key characteristics of forecasting practices, formality, organizational simplicity, and transparency, and empirically explores their determinants. High levels of country corruption are associated with less formal and less transparent forecasts. Past IMF involvement in a country increases the formality of the process, but does not improve public access to information.

Author : Howard A. Frank
Publisher : Praeger
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 1993-11-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : UOM:39076001343008

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Budgetary Forecasting in Local Government by Howard A. Frank Pdf

Local governments are hard-pressed to balance their budgets in the 1990s. Part of any budget-balancing effort is accurate forecasting. In this new work, Howard Frank introduces time-tested forecasting techniques from the private sector and military in a local forecasting environment. In a lucid, user-friendly treatment, Frank shows how simple and complex methods can be put to use in the contemporary local government setting. Through examples--many of them from his own research--the author delineates the strengths and weaknesses of quantitative and non-quantitative forecasting methods. Frank also shows how these techniques can be used to monitor changes in public programs--an increasingly important part of contemporary budget execution. Frank does not assume an extensive mathematical or statistical background on the part of the reader--indeed, a forecast neophyte will have no difficulty understanding the text. Questions at the end of each chapter focus the reader on the major concepts and provide insights on practical applications within the urban setting. A cornerstone of the work is that local forecasters must be intelligent experimenters with the new tools--there is no canned advice that applies to all cities and forecast situations. But with application of forecasting approaches treated in this unique work, local budgeters--and those in training to become budgeters--will be able to adopt forecasting approaches that have been underutilized in local government.

Author : Michael Coveney,Gary Cokins
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Page : 240 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2017-04-24
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781940235318

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Budgeting, Forecasting, and Planning In Uncertain Times by Michael Coveney,Gary Cokins Pdf

Budgeting, planning and forecasting are critical management tasks that not only impact the future success of an organization, but can threaten its very survival if done badly. Yet in spite of their importance, the speed and complexity of today’s business environment has caused a rapid decrease in the planning time horizon. As a consequence, the traditional planning processes have become unsuitable for most organization’s needs. In this book, students will find new, original insights, including: 7 planning models that every organization needs to plan and manage performance 6 ways in which performance can be viewed A planning framework based on best management practices that can cope with an unpredictable business environment The application of technology to planning and latest developments in systems Results of the survey conducted for the book on the state of planning in organizations

Author : Aman Khan
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 438 pages
File Size : 41,9 Mb
Release : 2019-11-12
Category : Law
ISBN : 9783030192266

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Fundamentals of Public Budgeting and Finance by Aman Khan Pdf

Budgeting is probably the single most important function in government, considering the amount of money a government spends each year on various expenditure programs and activities, as well as the time it spends in preparing the budget, appropriating funds for these activities and, finally, executing them. This book integrates the complex theory and practice of public budgeting into a single text. Written in a simple, concise and easy to understand manner, The Fundamentals of Public Budgeting and Finance captures the multidimensional perspective of public budgeting that students, as well as practitioners will find useful.

Author : Mr.Stephan Danninger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
Page : 22 pages
File Size : 41,5 Mb
Release : 2005-01-01
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781451860337

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Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets by Mr.Stephan Danninger Pdf

Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of the government's attempt to boost unobserved revenue collection effort. If positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is possible and governments may understate revenue forecasts. A case study for Azerbaijan is presented in support of the former incentive motive.

Author : Shayne Kavanagh
Publisher : GFOA
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2007
Category : Local finance
ISBN : 0891252886

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Financing the Future by Shayne Kavanagh Pdf

Author : Greg G. Chen,Lynne A. Weikart,Daniel W. Williams
Publisher : CQ Press
Page : 385 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2014-11-04
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781483370705

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Budget Tools by Greg G. Chen,Lynne A. Weikart,Daniel W. Williams Pdf

The thoroughly updated and expanded Second Edition of Greg G. Chen, Lynne A. Weikart, and Daniel W. Williams’ Budget Tools: Financial Methods in the Public Sector brings together scores of exercises that will take students through the process of public budgeting, from organizing data through analysis and presentation. This thoroughly revised text has been restructured – it now has 30 compact modules to focus on individual skills and enhance flexibility, and is reorganized to cover more straightforward skills early in the book and more complex tools later on. Using budgets from all levels of government as well as from nonprofit organizations, the authors give students the opportunity to work with real budgeting data to cover a range of topics and skills.Budget Tools provides instruction in the techniques and implementation of budgeting skills at a granular level to support a wide range of approaches to teaching the subject.

Author : Richard Allen,Richard Hemming,B. Potter
Publisher : Springer
Page : 1125 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2013-08-15
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781137315304

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The International Handbook of Public Financial Management by Richard Allen,Richard Hemming,B. Potter Pdf

The Handbook is a virtual encyclopedia of public financial management, written by topmost experts, many with a background in the IMF and World Bank. It provides the first comprehensive guide to the subject that has been published in more than ten years. The book is aimed at a broad audience of academics/students, government officials, development agencies and practitioners. It covers both bread-and-butter topics such as the macroeconomic and legal framework for budgeting, budget preparation and execution, procurement, accounting, reporting, audit and oversight, as well as specialist subjects such as government payroll systems, local government finance, fiscal transparency, the management of fiscal risks, sovereign wealth funds, the management of state-owned enterprises, and political economy aspects of budgeting. The book sets out numerous examples and case studies describing good practice in public financial management, and is highly relevant for use in both advanced and developing countries.

Author : Gerald J. Miller
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 360 pages
File Size : 50,9 Mb
Release : 2017-09-25
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781351565080

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Government Budgeting and Financial Management in Practice by Gerald J. Miller Pdf

The right turn in U. S. politics has increased conflict over both ends and means in government budgeting and financial management. Overlapping and competing views of the way the world works drive finance officials’ practice. Taking a new look at public financial management that acknowledges the multiple, competing realities, Government Budgeting and Financial Management in Practice: Logics to Make Sense of Ambiguity examines transaction cost economics and other small government, managed-by-the-market techniques as the latest reincarnation of public budgeting and financial management orthodoxy. Gerald J. Miller reviews new research on the continuing validity of the political dimension of government finance decisions and the multiple, intensely argued constructions of reality the finance official must make sense of. Miller discusses major advances in interpretive approaches to budgeting and finance and how they dominate writing in the broader field of public administration. He also examines the effects of the explosion of information systems, new budget techniques, nonconventional ways of spending, and new technologies. The book uses a question as the motivating force to understand some facets of today’s government budgeting, finance, and financial management: where do the critical assumptions come from to drive financial management? Miller takes the history of reform, developments in the field and the logics finance officials say they use as sources for these assumptions and examines what they reveal about constructions of the government finance world. Exploring new avenues of financial management thinking, the book discusses ambiguity and interpretations that move the unclear preferences, ends, and goals toward consensus. The author identifies an alternative approach to research that explains important facets of financial management. This approach is drawn directly from practice, events and problems in public organizations and from the creedal bent of many political actors in competition.