Forecasting Uncertainty And Public Project Appraisal
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Forecasting, Uncertainty, and Public Project Appraisal by Jock R. Anderson Pdf
A measure of the probability of commodity price forecasts is not necessary for most project analysis, but it does give users a realistic view of the forecast's precision -- and imposes a useful discipline on the forecaster.
Author : Michael W. Klein Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 20 pages File Size : 43,9 Mb Release : 1999 Category : Electronic ISBN : 8210379456XXX
Risk, Taxpayers, and the Role of Government in Project Finance by Michael W. Klein Pdf
December 1996 A perennial question has been the relative cost of public and private finance for investment projects in infrastructure. Klein argues that the apparent cheapness of sovereign funds stems from taxpayers' not being remunerated for the contingent liability they effectively assume. So the proper role for government is to reduce the cost of risk-bearing for all projects by providing a stable and efficient policy framework. Klein concludes that government, through the tax system, cannot really do better than private financial markets at funding infrastructure projects. All the financial advantages of sovereign finance are due purely to coercive powers and are of no social value. Under government finance the taxpayers would bear a contingent liability that, if properly remunerated, would wipe out any cost advantage of sovereign borrowing. Governments should then refrain from investing in projects or firms, whether with equity or with debt. They should not cover commercial risks. In particular, one cannot argue that there is a tradeoff between the low cost of government finance and private efficiency. Private markets will do the best they can to tap low-cost funds while maintaining project discipline. They solve whatever tradeoff there is. The government cannot do better by raising funds. As a corollary, discount rates for private and public sector projects would not be expected to differ (contrary to standard practice). Arguing that the government cannot be expected to improve on the outcome of free financial markets is not to argue that all is the best in the best of all possible worlds and that there is no role for government. Private markets may not always find the best solutions. Market participants constantly search for better ways of trading risks. On average we could not expect governments to do better. More important, governments can significantly reduce the cost of risk-bearing by following prudent macroeconomic policies, supporting secure property rights, and deregulating and liberalizing financial markets so that private players can take the best advantage of low-cost funding opportunities. But it is inefficient to offset the risks created through bad policy by taxpayer-supported funding (which would amount to stealing from investors and compensating them by taking from taxpayers). Multilateral finance institutions should apply their financial instruments to support the development of better government policies - for example, by granting guarantees against policy failures where new policy regimes are not yet credible - and not simply invest in projects or guarantee the full credit risk of loans. This paper - a product of the Private Participation in Infrastructure Group, Private Sector Development Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze issues relating to private participation in infrastructure.
Economic Analysis of Environmental Impacts by John Dixon,Louise Scura,Richard Carpenter,Paul Sherman Pdf
This revised and updated guide to the environmental economics of development projects demonstrates how the environmental impacts of projects can be translated into monetary values. The theoretical bases are examined, and the techniques themselves given detailed exposition, supported by extensive case studies illustrating a wide range of applications. The text should become a useful complement to all standard forms of project analysis.
Applied Welfare Economics by Massimo Florio,Chiara Pancotti Pdf
Applied Welfare Economics: Cost-Benefit Analysis for Project and Policy Evaluation presents a consistent framework for applied welfare economics and is grounded in a comprehensive theory of cost-benefit analysis, specifically focused on offering a practical approach to policy and project evaluation. After opening with a theoretical discussion of the concept of social welfare, a critical analysis of the traditional doctrine of welfare economics embodied in the Two Fundamental Theorems, and a presentation of social cost-benefit analysis, the book introduces readers to an applied framework. This includes the empirical estimation of shadow prices of goods, the social cost of labour and capital, and the assessment of risk. The book also examines real-life experiences with cost-benefit analysis, including ex-post evaluation of major projects, economic rates of return in different sectors, and a case study on privatisation. These chapters draw on first-hand research gained by the author team from years of advisory work for the European Commission and other international and national institutions. This second edition presents updated data, more international examples, and more coverage of topics such as very long run discounting effects and climate change as an intergenerational effect. It also includes more practical examples and end-of-chapter questions to aid student’s learning. Applied Welfare Economics is a valuable textbook for upper-level courses on welfare economics, cost-benefit analysis, public policy analysis and related areas.
Author : Pedro Belli Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 294 pages File Size : 45,5 Mb Release : 2001-01-01 Category : Business & Economics ISBN : 0821348507
Economic Analysis of Investment Operations by Pedro Belli Pdf
This books presents general principles and methodologies of quantitative risk analysis; provides theory and practice of how to evaluate health, transport and education projects and describes how to assess the environmental impact of projects. It looks at how the tools of cost benefit analysis can be applied from the point of view of the private sector, public sector, bankers, and the country as a whole. It encourages analysts to answer a number of key questions that are likely to increase success rather than simply describing techniques. This book as aimed at all concerned with resource allocation and is presented in an accessible fashion. It is required reading at World bank Institute courses.
Risk Analysis in Dryland Farming Systems by Jock R. Anderson,John L. Dillon,Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Pdf
Need for risk considerations in farming systems analysis in dryland areas; Analysing risk in farming systems in dryland areas; Allowance for risk in project, programme and policy work pertaining to faming systems.
Intersectoral Financial Flows in Developing Countries by Patrick Honohan,Izak Atiyas Pdf
The business sector in developing countries relies on external funding for about half of its investment. If the availability of investable funds is to be freed from its dependence on the vagaries of the international capital markets, developing country financial systems will have to attract more household savings with new types of instruments and adequate returns.
Author : Robert D. Weaver,Banco Mundial Publisher : World Bank Publications Page : 65 pages File Size : 41,5 Mb Release : 1989 Category : Agriculture ISBN : 8210379456XXX
