From Climate Risk To Resilience Unpacking The Economic Impacts Of Climate Change In Kenya

Author : Detelinova, Iva,Thomas, Timothy S.,Hammond, Wole,Arndt, Channing,Hartley, Faaiqa
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 51 pages
File Size : 52,9 Mb
Release : 2023-11-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya by Detelinova, Iva,Thomas, Timothy S.,Hammond, Wole,Arndt, Channing,Hartley, Faaiqa Pdf

Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture. The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).

Author : Detelinova, Iva,Thomas, Timothy S.,Tian, Junyan,Hammond, Wole,Arndt, Channing
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 43 pages
File Size : 48,5 Mb
Release : 2023-11-13
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Mozambique by Detelinova, Iva,Thomas, Timothy S.,Tian, Junyan,Hammond, Wole,Arndt, Channing Pdf

Mozambique is already vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate change is projected to exacerbate their frequency and intensity. The occurrence of cyclones and flooding has increased in recent years and the trend is expected to continue. The country’s coast—where 60 percent of the population, the three biggest cities, and critical infrastructure are situated—is most exposed to climate change-related risks, including damage from cyclones and projected sea level rise. Densely populated and low-lying regions, such as Zambezia, Nampula, Sofala, and Maputo Provinces, are particularly exposed to risks from flooding. More broadly, climate change is projected to increase average temperatures across the country and to result in higher variability in precipitation, especially in the south. The most critical economic sectors vulnerable to climate change in Mozambique are agriculture, transport, and potentially energy. In agriculture, maize is likely to be the most affected key crop. This can pose risks to food security (alongside expected higher food inflation because of climate change), given maize’s widespread cultivation and role in nutrition. The impact on other crops is likely to be more limited, and to a large extent driven by damages from increased frequency of extreme weather events. This could exacerbate challenges in the sector, which is already constrained by low productivity and limited arable areas. That said, climate change could create some opportunities; for example, rice yields are projected to improve. Most studies project agricultural production in the central region to be most adversely affected by climate change, albeit the impact varies by crop and within regions. Mozambique’s transport infrastructure is highly vulnerable to climate change due to the projected increase in flooding, the low proportion of paved roads, their limited interconnectivity, and the vulnerability of ports to cyclones and storm surges. Damages to Mozambique’s transport sector are likely to have knock-on effects to other sectors and can have significant regional implications, as the country serves as a conduit for landlocked neighboring countries. Infrastructure damages, alongside the projected coastal erosion, may severely affect the tourism sector. Furthermore, Mozambique’s high dependence on hydropower exposes it to losses from rainfall variability, which is expected to increase. The country’s largest hydropower plant is located downstream on the Zambezi River, which various studies project to dry up due to climate change. Increased water use in upstream countries (such as because of greater irrigation needs and in response to growing populations) could also pose risks to Mozambique’s hydropower sector.

Author : Detelinova, Iva,Thomas, Timothy S.,Tian, Junyan,Hammond, Wole,Arndt, Channing
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 44 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2023-11-14
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Zambia by Detelinova, Iva,Thomas, Timothy S.,Tian, Junyan,Hammond, Wole,Arndt, Channing Pdf

Climate change is projected to cause an increase in average temperatures in Zambia and a decline in rainfall, particularly in the southern and western regions. The country experiences high rainfall variability, which climate change is expected to exacerbate, resulting in likely higher frequency and intensity of already reoccurring extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. The combined effect of the temperature and precipitation projections is anticipated to cause a decrease in water availability at national level and to adversely affect the Zambezi, Kafue, and Luangwa River Basins. Overall, these trends will exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in southwestern Zambia, as the region is already prone to droughts (as well as floods in some parts). On the other hand, the northern parts of the country are projected to experience a slight increase in rainfall and to be overall relatively positively affected by climate change. The key sectors most likely to be significantly affected by climate change in Zambia include agriculture, road infrastructure, and energy. In agriculture, the key risk stemming from climate change is the projected lower maize yields, as this is the country’s staple crop. Other crops are also expected to be adversely affected by higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and increased occurrence of extreme events, particularly in southern and western Zambia. That said, changing climate conditions could create new agricultural opportunities in the north. Climate change is projected to negatively affect the livestock subsector, which will increase food security risks, particularly for subsistence farmers. In road infrastructure, the projected higher occurrence of flooding, especially in Lusaka Province, could have a knock-on effect for the rest of the economy, particularly if it damages key international corridors passing through this region and/or affects domestic supply chains. Zambia is significantly reliant on hydropower and is already experiencing severe power cuts due to drought. The risks in the sector are exacerbated by the location of key hydropower plants in the southern parts of the country and the projected drying up of main river basins. The electricity shortages have spillover effects on the rest of the economy, including the copper industry, Zambia’s key export. This has international implications, as Zambia is a top copper producer worldwide, and demand for copper is expected to increase significantly due to its crucial role in various green technologies. Thus, absent adaptation measures, the adverse impact of climate change in Zambia could affect global mitigation efforts and strategies.

Author : Detelinova, Iva,Thomas, Timothy S.,Hammond, Wole,Arndt, Channing,Mukashov, Askar
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Page : 37 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2023-11-14
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 8210379456XXX

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From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi by Detelinova, Iva,Thomas, Timothy S.,Hammond, Wole,Arndt, Channing,Mukashov, Askar Pdf

Climate change is not projected to materially alter Malawi’s climate profile. Instead, it is likely to exacerbate existing climate vulnerabilities by increasing the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts. This is largely due to increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels. These adverse effects have already started to materialize and are expected to increase substantially over the next decades, particularly if efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by high emitting countries are insufficient. Climate change is also projected to increase average annual temperatures across the country. Climate change is expected to significantly affect Malawi’s economy, mainly because of its dependence on climate-sensitive economic sectors and its low capacity to take adaptation measures due to preexisting macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Malawi’s sensitivity to climate shocks is underpinned by significant environmental degradation, in particular deforestation, watershed degradation, and poor soil management. The two main impact channels are likely to be agriculture and road infrastructure. In agriculture, the increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels in Malawi will likely result in higher variability in crop yields. Climate change is projected to exacerbate preexisting environmental degradation challenges, including soil erosion. These effects are particularly problematic due to Malawi’s high poverty rate, lack of economic diversification (the agriculture sector represents one-third of the economy and employs over 70 percent of the workforce), and significant dependence on rainfed production (about 80 percent of the population). Climate change is likely to significantly impact Malawi’s road infrastructure, mainly due to increased risk of flooding, which would have broader economic and social knock-on impacts.

Author : Sam Fankhauser,Thomas K.J. McDermott
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 256 pages
File Size : 43,5 Mb
Release : 2016-07-27
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781785360312

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The Economics of Climate-Resilient Development by Sam Fankhauser,Thomas K.J. McDermott Pdf

Some climate change is now inevitable and strategies to adapt to these changes are quickly developing. The question is particularly paramount for low-income countries, which are likely to be most affected. This timely and unique book takes an integrated look at the twin challenges of climate change and development. The book treats adaptation to climate change as an issue of climate-resilient development, rather than as a bespoke set of activities (flood defences, drought plans, and so on), combining climate and development challenges into a single strategy. It asks how the standard approaches to development need to change, and what socio-economic trends and urbanisation mean for the vulnerability of developing countries to climate risks. Combining conceptual thinking with practical policy prescriptions and experience the contributors argue that, to address these questions, climate risk has to be embedded fully into wider development strategies

Author : K.N. Ninan,Makoto Inoue
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
Page : 336 pages
File Size : 54,6 Mb
Release : 2017-06-30
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9781785368455

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Building a Climate Resilient Economy and Society by K.N. Ninan,Makoto Inoue Pdf

Climate change will have a profound impact on human and natural systems, and will also impede economic growth and sustainable development. In this book, leading experts from around the world discuss the challenges and opportunities in building a climate resilient economy and society. The chapters are organised in three sections. The first part explores vulnerability, adaptation and resilience, whilst Part II examines climate resilience-sectoral perspectives covering different sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, marine ecosystems, cities and urban infrastructure, drought prone areas, and renewable energy. In the final part, the authors look at Incentives, institutions and policy, including topics such as carbon pricing, REDD plus, climate finance, the role of institutions and communities, and climate policies. Combining a global focus with detailed case studies of a cross section of regions, countries and sectors, this book will prove to be an invaluable resource.

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
Page : 136 pages
File Size : 55,7 Mb
Release : 2014-04-22
Category : Electronic
ISBN : 9789264209503

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Climate Resilience in Development Planning Experiences in Colombia and Ethiopia by OECD Pdf

This report discusses the current state of knowledge on how to build climate resilience in developing countries.

Author : Fredrick K. Karanja
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 40 pages
File Size : 40,5 Mb
Release : 2016
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1290703293

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The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Kenyan Crop Agriculture by Fredrick K. Karanja Pdf

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. The analysis is based on cross-sectional climate, hydrological, soil, and household level data for a sample of 816 households, and uses a seasonal Ricardian model. Estimated marginal impacts of climate variables suggest that global warming is harmful for agricultural productivity and that changes in temperature are much more important than changes in precipitation. This result is confirmed by the predicted impact of various climate change scenarios on agriculture. The results further confirm that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. The authors analyze farmers' perceptions of climate variations and their adaptation to these, and also constraints on adaptation mechanisms. The results suggest that farmers in Kenya are aware of short-term climate change, that most of them have noticed an increase in temperatures, and that some have taken adaptive measures.

Author : Channing Arndt
Publisher : Unknown
Page : 128 pages
File Size : 55,6 Mb
Release : 2014
Category : Electronic
ISBN : OCLC:1308839595

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Aid and Growth by Channing Arndt Pdf

The micro-macro paradox has been revived. Despite broadly positive evaluations at the micro and meso-levels, recent literature has turned decidedly pessimistic with respect to the ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth. Policy implications, such as the complete cessation of aid to Africa, are being drawn on the basis of fragile evidence. This paper first assesses the aid-growth literature with a focus on recent contributions. The aid-growth literature is then framed, for the first time, in terms of the Rubin Causal Model, applied at the macroeconomic level. Our results show that aid has a positive and statistically significant causal effect on growth over the long run with point estimates at levels suggested by growth theory. We conclude that aid remains an important tool for enhancing the development prospects of poor nations.

Author : Christopher B. Field,Vicente R. Barros
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Page : 1149 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2014-12-29
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 9781107058071

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Climate Change 2014 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Global and Sectoral Aspects by Christopher B. Field,Vicente R. Barros Pdf

This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC will again form the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences.

Author : Mark Pelling
Publisher : Routledge
Page : 304 pages
File Size : 55,8 Mb
Release : 2010-10-18
Category : Nature
ISBN : 9781134022014

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Adaptation to Climate Change by Mark Pelling Pdf

The impacts of climate change are already being felt. Learning how to live with these impacts is a priority for human development. In this context, it is too easy to see adaptation as a narrowly defensive task – protecting core assets or functions from the risks of climate change. A more profound engagement, which sees climate change risks as a product and driver of social as well as natural systems, and their interaction, is called for. Adaptation to Climate Change argues that, without care, adaptive actions can deny the deeper political and cultural roots that call for significant change in social and political relations if human vulnerability to climate change associated risk is to be reduced. This book presents a framework for making sense of the range of choices facing humanity, structured around resilience (stability), transition (incremental social change and the exercising of existing rights) and transformation (new rights claims and changes in political regimes). The resilience-transition-transformation framework is supported by three detailed case study chapters. These also illustrate the diversity of contexts where adaption is unfolding, from organizations to urban governance and the national polity. This text is the first comprehensive analysis of the social dimensions to climate change adaptation. Clearly written in an engaging style, it provides detailed theoretical and empirical chapters and serves as an invaluable reference for undergraduate and postgraduate students interested in climate change, geography and development studies.

Author : Emma Rosa Mary Archer,Katharine Emma Vincent,Andrew John Dougill,Marta Bruno Soares,Chris C. Funk
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Page : 210 pages
File Size : 42,6 Mb
Release : 2022-11-25
Category : Science
ISBN : 9782832507278

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Extreme Events in the Developing World by Emma Rosa Mary Archer,Katharine Emma Vincent,Andrew John Dougill,Marta Bruno Soares,Chris C. Funk Pdf

Author : Declan Conway,Katharine Vincent
Publisher : Springer Nature
Page : 186 pages
File Size : 50,8 Mb
Release : 2021-01-19
Category : Science
ISBN : 9783030611606

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Climate Risk in Africa by Declan Conway,Katharine Vincent Pdf

This open access book highlights the complexities around making adaptation decisions and building resilience in the face of climate risk. It is based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa through the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) applied research programme. It begins by dealing with underlying principles and structures designed to facilitate effective engagement about climate risk, including the robustness of information and the construction of knowledge through co-production. Chapters then move on to explore examples of using climate information to inform adaptation and resilience through early warning, river basin development, urban planning and rural livelihoods based in a variety of contexts. These insights inform new ways to promote action in policy and praxis through the blending of knowledge from multiple disciplines, including climate science that provides understanding of future climate risk and the social science of response through adaptation. The book will be of interest to advanced undergraduate students and postgraduate students, researchers, policy makers and practitioners in geography, environment, international development and related disciplines.

Author : Benjamin K. Sovacool,Björn-Ola Linnér
Publisher : Springer
Page : 226 pages
File Size : 52,6 Mb
Release : 2016-04-29
Category : Political Science
ISBN : 9781137496737

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The Political Economy of Climate Change Adaptation by Benjamin K. Sovacool,Björn-Ola Linnér Pdf

Drawing on concepts in political economy, political ecology, justice theory, and critical development studies, the authors offer the first comprehensive, systematic exploration of the ways in which adaptation projects can produce unintended, undesirable results. This work is on the Global Policy: Next Generation list of six key books for understanding the politics of global climate change.

Author : Karl W. Steininger,Martin König,Birgit Bednar-Friedl,Lukas Kranzl,Wolfgang Loibl,Franz Prettenthaler
Publisher : Springer
Page : 0 pages
File Size : 40,6 Mb
Release : 2015-03-23
Category : Business & Economics
ISBN : 3319124560

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Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts by Karl W. Steininger,Martin König,Birgit Bednar-Friedl,Lukas Kranzl,Wolfgang Loibl,Franz Prettenthaler Pdf

This volume deals with the multifaceted and interdependent impacts of climate change on society from the perspective of a broad set of disciplines. The main objective of the book is to assess public and private cost of climate change as far as quantifiable, while taking into account the high degree of uncertainty. It offers new insights for the economic assessment of a broad range of climate change impact chains at a national scale. The framework presented in the book allows consistent evaluation including mutual interdependencies and macroeconomic feedback. This book develops a toolbox that can be used across the many areas of climate impact and applies it to one particular country: Austria.