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In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble "Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."—Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it. Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.
The CBC is a national obsession. Everyone has an opinion on it. It's too left-wing; it's too right-wing. It's too commercial; it's too boring. The CBC mirrors, reflects and magnifies all the tensions within Canada. The debate about its direction and focus is the debate about what matters to the country. In 2004, CBC television had sunk to its lowest audience share in its history and Radio 2's audiences were on life support. That same year, Richard Stursberg, an avowed popularizer with a reputation for radical action, was hired to run English services. With incisive wit and a flare for anecdote, Stursberg tells the story of the struggle that resulted, a struggle that lasted for six turbulent and controversial years. It's the fascinating story of the attempt to transform the CBC into a broadly popular, audience-focused organization. It is a story about shows, stars, flops, hits, arguments, deals, successes and failures. It is a story that was fought in labour disputes, the press, the board and the government. Shortly after Stursberg arrived, the corporation locked out the employees for two months. He was characterized as a thug and a spineless rat. Four years later, he signed the most harmonious labour contract in the history of the company. He lost the television rights for the 2010-12 Olympic Games, the Canadian Football League, curling and the Hockey Night in Canada song. He won the biggest NHL contract in history, secured the World Cup of Football and produced the biggest sports audiences in decades. He had unprecedented ratings successes - Little Mosque on the Prairie, Dragon's Den and Battle of the Blades. He had terrible flops. He rebuilt the news -- making Peter Mansbridge stand up -- and was roundly criticized for "Americanizing it." He cut 400 jobs and enjoyed the highest levels of trust and support from CBC staff. He antagonized Canada's cultural elites, the media and politicians. He enjoyed the best ratings for radio, television and online in CBC's history. He fought endless wars with the President and the Board about the direction of the Corporation and ultimately was dismissed. This is the story of what was done, why it was done, and why it mattered. It is a story about our most loved and reviled cultural institution during its most convulsive and far-reaching period of change. It is for those who think the CBC has lost its way, those who love where it is, and those who think it should not exist in the first place. It is for those who want argue about the Corporation's place in Canadian society, and for those who simply want to know the gossip about its greatest shows and greatest stars. It is for those who want to know what Don Cherry, Peter Mansbridge, Wendy Mesley and Rick Mercer are really like, as well as those who want to know how to negotiate a deal with Gary Bettman, develop a hit television show or face down enraged classical music enthusiasts and curling fans. It is the story of the best mirror we have to show us who we are.
In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.
Isaiah Berlin's classic essay on Tolstoy - an exciting new edition with new criticism and a foreword. 'The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.' This fragment of Archilochus, which gives this book its title, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Tolstoy. There have been various interpretations of Archilochus' fragment; Isaiah Berlin has simply used it, without implying anything about the true meaning of the words, to outline a fundamental distinction that exists in mankind, between those who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things (foxes) and those who relate everything to a central all-embracing system (hedgehogs). When applied to Tolstoy, the image illuminates a paradox of his philosophy of history, and shows why he was frequently misunderstood by his contemporaries and critics. Tolstoy was by nature a fox, but he believed in being a hedgehog.
Babble Books - Stage One by Stephanie Ciatti M.S. CCC-SLP Pdf
Stage One: Omonths + Developed by a speech language pathologist and mom, Babble Books is a developmentally appropriate series of books that foster natural speech development. Babble Books mirror the natural progression of speech sounds as they emerge and promote the acquisition of phonemic awareness (the ability to hear and manipulate sounds in words) through tried and tested techniques. Babble Books is divided into stages that specifically target the set of speech sounds that are developmentally appropriate for that stage. The Babble Book stages are defined by the age slightly before and during the critical period in which the speech sounds emerge so as to encourage auditory bombardment and verbal exploration prior to the expected age of mastery. Current research indicates that language rich environments are the key to the acquisition of speech and language skills. Parents and caregivers have the greatest impact on a child's speech and language development and, with the use of Babble Books, a solid foundation for effective communication, socialization, and future academic success can be established. Do not wait. Start babbling today and watch your child's speech flourish. The Babble Book series is the perfect gift for the holidays, baby showers, birthdays, and "anytime presents." A great tool for parents, grandparents, teachers, pediatricians, and speech therapists alike.
“Education is the new buffalo” is a metaphor widely used among Indigenous peoples in Canada to signify the importance of education to their survival and ability to support themselves, as once Plains nations supported themselves as buffalo peoples. The assumption is that many of the pre-Contact ways of living are forever gone, so adaptation is necessary. But Chelsea Vowel asks, “Instead of accepting that the buffalo, and our ancestral ways, will never come back, what if we simply ensure that they do?” Inspired by classic and contemporary speculative fiction, Buffalo Is the New Buffalo explores science fiction tropes through a Métis lens: a Two-Spirit rougarou (shapeshifter) in the nineteenth century tries to solve a murder in her community and joins the nêhiyaw-pwat (Iron Confederacy) in order to successfully stop Canadian colonial expansion into the West. A Métis man is gored by a radioactive bison, gaining super strength, but losing the ability to be remembered by anyone not related to him by blood. Nanites babble to babies in Cree, virtual reality teaches transformation, foxes take human form and wreak havoc on hearts, buffalo roam free, and beings grapple with the thorny problem of healing from colonialism. Indigenous futurisms seek to discover the impact of colonization, remove its psychological baggage, and recover ancestral traditions. These eight short stories of “Métis futurism” explore Indigenous existence and resistance through the specific lens of being Métis. Expansive and eye-opening, Buffalo Is the New Buffalo rewrites our shared history in provocative and exciting ways.
A United Nations insider exposes the ugly truth about the UN—including how UN organizations have been funding terrorist groups! In the New York Times bestseller Tower of Babble, former United Nations ambassador Dore Gold blows the lid off the UN’s shocking failures to keep international peace, its corruption, its rampant anti-Americanism, and its emboldening of terrorist organizations. Citing previously unpublished documents, a brand-new chapter exclusive to this paperback edition provides the untold story of the infamous oil-for-food scandal—including the real scandal, that the UN let oil-for-food money go to fund terrorist organizations.
An international best-seller, Gorilla Mindset has helped hundreds-of-thousands of people all over the world live a better life. Rather than tell you lies, Gorilla Mindset teaches you how to take control of your thoughts and emotions. You will live life on your terms. By applying Gorilla Mindset to your life, you will improve your health and fitness, earn more money, and have stronger relationships.Your thinking will become clear. Your posture will improve. You will have more focus. Gorilla Mindset teaches you the power of routine, self-talk, frame, focus, state/mood, mindfulness, and body language and posture. Each chapter contains techniques, mindset shifts, and habits that can be applied to your life. Immediately. For example, improving your self-talk will improve your state or mood. How you frame challenges in your life is also a matter of the language - or self-talk - you use.Getting in the moment improves your self-talk just as your self-talk helps you get into the moment.At the end of Gorilla Mindset you'll tie every concept together to live a life others don't even dare dream of.But you will dream of that life. You will live that life.
Economics is like a tyre lever: it can be used to solve a problem, or to beat someone over the head. What is econobabble? We hear it every day, when politicians and commentators use incomprehensible economic jargon to dress up their self-interest as the national interest, to make the absurd seem inevitable or the inequitable seem fair. This book exposes the stupid arguments, bizarre contradictions and complete lack of evidence upon which much ‘common sense’ about the economy rests in Australia. Econobabble is for those who, deep down, have never believed that it makes sense, economic or otherwise, to help poor people by slashing public spending on the services they need. It’s for those who have a sneaking suspicion that it would be cheaper to avoid the effects of climate change than to let them happen and then ‘adapt’. And it’s for those who think pitting public health and aged care against the economy is a false dilemma, one that’s short-sighted, callous and potentially dangerous. In this new edition, Richard Denniss demolishes the tired and misleading arguments of right-wing economic ‘experts’ with humour and precision, empowering you to cut through the babble and reach the truth. ‘The best guide you’ll find to the literal non-sense that usually passes for economic debate in this country.’ —Ross Gittins
One young boy is the key to the universe. In this supernatural thriller, a young boy is discovered to be the link between the human race and the farthest reaches of the universe. For Bobbie Cagle, the normal difficulties of growing up are overshadowed by his unique condition, being misdiagnosed as autistic. Caught between his loving mother and those who would use him for their own purposes, Bobbie stands at the center of the universe and forces the human race to the edge of their own evolutionary line. The Lord said, “If as one people speaking the same language they have begun to do this, then nothing they plan to do will be impossible for them. -Genesis 11:6 Upon the Towers of Babel, the people of the Earth scattered, and silence fell. Now, on the brink of a new age, the human race leaps forward into the evolutionary void and changes the course of human history forever. For young Bobbie Cagle, the normal difficulties of growing up are overshadowed by his unique condition. Placed on the spectrum, Bobbie’s inability to communicate normally is misdiagnosed for years as Autism and masks the great part in human history that he is destined to play. Unknowingly able to receive transmissions from the farthest reaches of the universe, young Bobbie’s life is forever changed when his unique ability is discovered. Coveted by those who would use him for their own purpose, Bobbie and his mother flee their home out of desperation and fear. In the course of their escape, the truth behind Bobbie’s gift and the effects it may have on the planet begin to the reveal themselves, all the while the future of the human race hangs in the balance. Find out what fate has in store for the human race and grab your copy of Babble today!
From Jay Asher, the bestselling author of THIRTEEN REASONS WHY - now a Netflix TV show - and Carolyn Mackey, comes a story of friendship, destiny, and finding love. What if you could see how your life would unfold just be clicking a button? It’s 1996 and Facebook isn't even invented. Yet somehow, best friends Emma and Josh have discovered their profiles, fifteen years in the future … and they’re not sure they like what they see. The more Emma and Josh learn about their future lives, the more obsessed they become on changing the destiny that awaits them. But what if focusing on the future, means that you miss something that’s right in front of you? ?
The #1 New York Times–bestselling author delivers “her trademark wit, sharp banter and lively antics from the first page . . . another one to savor” (Publishers Weekly). Big Mouth, Big Heart, Big City . . . Big Problems Things are looking up at last for Lizzie Nichols. She has a career she loves in the field of her choice (wedding gown restoration), and the love of her life, Luke, has finally proposed. Life’s become a dizzying whirl of wedding gown fittings—not necessarily her own—as Lizzie prepares for her dream wedding at her fiancé’s château in the south of France. But the dream soon becomes a nightmare when the best man—whom Lizzie might once have accidentally slept with . . . no, really, just slept—announces his total lack of support for the couple, a sentiment seconded by the maid of honor; Lizzie’s Midwestern family can’t understand why she doesn’t want to have her wedding in the family backyard; her future French in-laws are trying to lure the groom back into investment banking; and Lizzie finds herself wondering if her Prince Charming really is as charming as she once believed. “Cabot, author of the humorous Heather Wells mysteries as well as the wildly popular Princess Diaries series, has once again shown that she is a master at entertaining and amusing readers.” —Booklist “Reading about Lizzie and her gang again is like catching up with old friends. Patrons who like humorous, lighthearted stories about personal relationships will appreciate this book, not to mention the series.” —Library Journal
Discover how to connect with and inspire employees throughout an organization. Improve your leadership skills -- even if you aren't a "natural" communicator -- with a specific communication strategy that anyone can use. Authors Matha and Boehm present research showing that all managers can improve performance by using the principles outlined in Beyond the Babble. They explore why communication is crucial, how and when to do it, how to embed it in an organization's culture, and how to measure results. They also show how internal communications professionals can improve an organization's communication to the outside world.